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A g e n d a Current economic conditions D Contributors to GDP - - PDF document

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UNIVE RSIT ( )E I \\AIi \T M\N( )\ SHDIFR COLLEGE OF BUSINESS Internalional Excellence The Outlook for Hawaiis Economy and Labor Market Dr. Jack Suyderhoud Shidler College of Business University of Hawaii at Mnoa suyderho@hawaii.edu

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SLIDE 1 UNIVE RSIT ( )E I \\AIi \T M\N( )\

SHDIFR COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

Internalional Excellence

The Outlook for Hawaii’s Economy and Labor Market

  • Dr. Jack Suyderhoud

Shidler College of Business University of Hawai’i at Mãnoa suyderho@hawaii.edu

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

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SLIDE 2

A g e n d a

Current economic conditions

D Contributors to GDP

i Labor market trends

Forecasts Features of the Hawaii labor market

Things that concern me

i External i

Internal

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

2
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Current Economic

Conditions

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

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slide-4
SLIDE 4

0%

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slide-5
SLIDE 5

rDrivers of Hawaii’s Economy

Hawaii Real GDP by Industry: 2013

Real estate and rental and ieaslng Federal government State and local government Professional and business services Accommodation and food services Retail trade Health care and social assistance Construction Transportation and warehousing Whoiesaie trade Finance and insurance Utilities information Other services, except government Manufacturing Educational services Arts, entertainment, and recreation Agriculture, forestry. fishing, and hunting Mining .1. 1. .7

17

O.6fl 0.4 0.1 0.1 142

Real GDP $70.1B

  • f Total Real GDP
Tourism consists of partial of other industries and contributed 16 855, of rea’ GOP in 2013 Source: U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis

hesearch Fconomic

DBEE.W

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

5
slide-6
SLIDE 6

T

  • u

r i s m Dependence

Varies b y C

  • u

n t y

Relative Importance of Tourism Sector

1990

  • 2007

2014

15 1o

I

i

>

Maui Kauai Hawaii Island

Oahu State Source: Author, using HTA and DBEDT data

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

6
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SLIDE 7

Record State Visitor Arrivals 2016

j 2013

2014 <2015 2016 850,000

  • 800,000

750,000 700,000 650,000

E

Z 600,000 550,000

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

7
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SLIDE 8

State Visitor Spending Increases

Monthly State Visitor Spending Patterns, 2009-2016

Percent Change from Prior Year Visitor SDendinci ($mil, Seas. Adil (Left Axis

I

30’Yo

L.. Cu

a,

20%>-

C

Cu

4fl0I -

— IV /00

C

a)

  • 20%

a,

  • 30%

Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority

Hawaii Workforce Development Council

I

I I I I I I cu cu aj cu Cu

c

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I >1

0.

>‘.

0.

>i

0.

>‘

0.

>

0.

>

Cu 0’ cu CUG) cu Cu 01 cu Cu

0’Cu

Cu 0’ cu Cu

November 4, 2016

8
slide-9
SLIDE 9

z

  • Seas. Adj. Visitor Arrivals as % of Jan.
3

2008

  • r’J

O

.i 00 CD
  • %)
O

Jan-08 Jun-08

Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10

—.

Jul-10

—
  • Dec-10

2

May-11

Oct-Il

Mar-12

I

Aug-12

Di

00

Dl

c Jan-13

— C,
  • I

ft

Jun-13

Nov-13

:

Apr-14 Sep-14

  • ‘

Feb-15 Jul-15

‘-p

Dec-15

  • ‘

May-16

  • w
slide-10
SLIDE 10 V.’ r1 I-,. CD

z

00

C

“I

I-

CD

C

D

CD

3

  • C
I-,. CD 00

1.

CD B CD NI ID DI DI
  • h
CD CD

5-fl

,

m

C

V.’ CD
  • I
Di
  • I
t-,. Di I-,. “I C, “I

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Jan-Il Jul-Il

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

rD

[‘3

(3

4

(

Q

—J

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

(0

—
slide-11
SLIDE 11

But Underutilization Stays High

Difference Labor Underulitization Rate (U6) ‘—Head1ine Unemp Rate (U3)

18 16 14 12

4-I

rnIuIilltDffiiIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIrIiiifltIil+I

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

000000000000 0000000000000000000000000

Source: Fed Res Bank

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

11
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SLIDE 12

Job Recovery Uneven Across Counties

Job Patterns by Counties (indexed change, Dec. 2007=100%)

0ahu

Hawaii Island

—Maui —Kauai

110%

80%

E

75%

  • 0 0 0 0 0 0
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Source: DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

12
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SLIDE 13

Likewise for Unemployment Rate

12 1! 10 8 7

6:

5 4 3 2 1

Unemployment Rate by County

(SeasonIly Adjusted)

  • fl)
rfl

r

t

L.fl Lfl tO tO F.. fl. CO 03 0) 0, .—4 — fla n.j Fr) rr) In Lfl to to I 0) 0) 0’ 0’ 0’ 0) 0’ 0’ 0) — — — — — — 7

I

  • ;
if ‘ 1

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

13

—Hawaii County

Kauai Cou nty Maui County Honolulu County
slide-14
SLIDE 14

Job Growth Honolulu

Change in Jobs from Same lVlonth in Prior Year (Honolulu County, August 2016)

  • Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.

Professional & Business Services Health Care & Social Assistance Food Services & Drinking Places Accommodation Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Educational Services Federal Financial Activities Transp., Warehousing, Util.

Local

Other Services I Retail Trade I Manufacturing

P

Information

I

Wholesale Trade Government State

  • .
  • 4,000
  • 2,000

2,000

4,000 0 f,-.,tr,,.,,;,

Lb.,

I

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

14
slide-15
SLIDE 15

Job Growth Maui County

Change in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year (Maui County, August 2016)

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Health Care & Social Assistance

State Other Services Food Services & Drinking Places Professional & Business Services Government Transp., Warehousing, Util. Financial Activities Information Man u fact u ring

  • Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.

Federal Educational Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade

Local

Accommodation

  • 400
  • 200
200 400 600 800

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

15
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SLIDE 16

Job Growth Hawaii Island

Change in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year (Hawaii County, August 2016)

Food Services & Drinking Places Health Care & Social Assistance State

Nat, Resources, Mining, Constr.

Government

A cc omm o dat on

Information Educational Services Transp., Warehousing, Util. Manufacturing Federal Other Services Professional & Business Services Retail Trade

  • \/Vholesale Trade

Local Fin ancial Activities Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

  • 1,000
  • 500
500 1,000 1,500 S

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

16
slide-17
SLIDE 17

Job Growth Kauai

Change in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year (Kauai County, August 2016)

Food Services & Drinking Places

  • Health Care & Social Assistance
  • Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.

State

Government Accommodation Other Services Information

Local

Federal Educational Services Transp., Warehousing, Util. Retail Trade Manufacturing Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Professional & Business Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

  • 600
  • 400
  • 200
200 400 600 800

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 17

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SLIDE 18

Forecasts for Hawaii

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

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slide-19
SLIDE 19

Council on Revenues GDP Forecast

Hawaii Real GOP Growth, 2005-2019

6 5

4

‘-3

m

III

05 06 07 08 09 10

11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

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SLIDE 20

Visitor Arrival Forecast

DBEDT Forecasts (30 2016): Visitor Arriva’s

Visitor Arrivals (Air only)

_______________ 9.5 18,. 15% 9.0 12% 8.5 9% 8.0 6% 3% 7.5 0% 7,0
  • 3%

]. ii

. .ii...
  • .
,, 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Visitor arrival (person) —-—-Annual growth rate )%) a Air only Total annual annual person growth person growth l%l 1%) 2005 7,416,574 7.3% 7,494,236 7.2% 2006 7,528,105 1.5% 7,628,117 1.8% 2007 7,496,820
  • 0.4%
7,627,819 0.0% 2008 6,713,436
  • 10.4%
6,822,912
  • 10.6%
2009 6,420,448
  • 4.4%
6,517,054
  • 4.5%
2010 6,916,894 7.7% 7,018,133 7.7% 2011 7,174,398 3.7% 7,299,048 4.0% 2012 7,867,143 9.7% 8,028,742 10,0% 2013 8,003,474 1,7% 8,174,460 1.8% 2014 8,196,342 24% 8,320,785 1.8% 2015 8,563,018 4,5% 8,679,564 4,3% 2016 8,732,583 2 0’. 8.844,176 1 9 2017 8,885,4’t6 1.83u 8,997,040 1.7’,, 2018 9,044,986 1.8’. 9,156,579 1 8’. 2019 9,205,102 1.8% 9,316,696 1.7’

Chart by DBEDT

November 4,, 201 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

20
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SLIDE 21

Visitor Spending Forecast

DBEDT Forecasts (3Q 2016): Visitor Expenditure

Visitor Expenditure (Air only) 19,000 17,000 - 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 .ii[i 18% 15’ 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 3%
  • 6%
  • 9%
12%
  • 15%
  • 19%

/

I

2014‘ll 2016 2018 Air only Total annual annual $million growth $million growth 1%) (%) 2005 11,650 9.4% 11,904 9.6% 2006 12,243 5.1% 12,492 4.9% 2007 12,578 2.7% 12,811 2.6% 2008 11,182
  • 11.1%
11,398
  • 11.0%
2009 9,794
  • 12.4%
9,993
  • 12.3%
2010 10,867 10.9% 11,066 10.7% 2011 12,047 10.9% 12,180 10.1% 2012 14,193 17.8% 14,365 17.9% 2013 14,352 1.1% 14,521 1.1% 2014 14,809 3.2% 14,973 3.1% 2015 14,938 0.9% 15,111 0.9% 2016 15,420 ..2’ 15,598 3.2’, 2017 15,944 34% 16,124 3.3% 2018 16,610 4.2% 16,793 4,3% 2019 17,298 .1 1% 17,484 4.1% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Vinitor expenditure —Annual growth rate (%)

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 21

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SLIDE 22

COR

Visitor

F

  • r

e c a s t

Hawaii Visitor Arrivals and Expenditures, 2005-2019

I

Visitor arrivals by air

‘Visitor expenditures

I

20.00% 15.00%

4 : : : : H

  • 15.00%

05 06 07 08 09 10

11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

22
slide-23
SLIDE 23

COR Construction Forecast

Hawaii Construction Completed, 2005-2019

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0%

>-

5.0%

I

0.0% i:JrIT.nv

I

  • 10.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 20.0%

05 06 07 08 09 10

11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

23
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SLIDE 24

COR TPI Forecast

Hawaii Real Personal Income, 2005-2019

5.0% 4.0%

>-

52.0%

I

  • 1.0%
  • 2.0%

05 06 07 08 09 10

11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 24

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SLIDE 25

Long-range Job Forecast

Figure 1-3. Average Annual Growth of Total Civilian Jobs for the State

5% 4%

3%

Actual Projected

2°

_

fin J

1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-

75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

25
slide-26
SLIDE 26

Long-range Income Forecast

Figure 1-2 Average Annual Growth of Real Personal Iticome for the State

1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Chart by DBEDT

5%

  • r

3%

Actual Projected

1% 0%

n m

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

26
slide-27
SLIDE 27

.

Features of Hawaii s

Labor Market

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 27

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Our “Thin” Labor Market

Labor Force In Selected Markets, 2015

, 10

LA Area

SF&SouthBay Seattle Area Portland Hawaii

Source: US BLS

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

28
slide-29
SLIDE 29

_______

North Dakota

Iowa r

South Dakota Nebraska C Kansas Indiana I Wyoming West Virginia t3 Minnesota•
  • CD

Z

Ohio Missouri (I) Oklahoma D Arkansas Kentucky
  • 00
Alaska ________________________ (0 District of Columbia
  • Utah
I _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

5

Michigan Idaho a’
  • .
  • DO
Texas CD i.n Wisconsin
  • Virginia

°

IV Colorado L LJJ
  • Pennsylzania
C LI! Alabama Louisiana
  • CD
North Carolina Tennessee Arizona South Carolina

j

Georgia (0
  • <
Maryland D Delaware Mhdsdppi _______________ 5 New Hampshire a, Wa51iirrgton
  • it
Maine Illinois

3

Nevada Oregon
  • __________________________________
Massachusetts 00 New Mexico 00 Connecticut
  • CD
Vermont Rhodelsland New York Florida
  • Newierseyl
w

w

.A1fIJL

,_=-__5

m

C —I

9

slide-30
SLIDE 30 i- I’_i CM ijI m North Dakota

—.

South Dakota Wyoming Nebraska Iowa O5 Kansas rTh Utah (5
  • Oklahoma
West Virginia — 0 Arkansas
  • Idaho
Montana C, Wisconsin
  • Minnesota
_t.

,II

v-i
  • _______________
0) ID Missouri
  • ct
Massachusetts CD ij > New Hampshire
  • Ohio
—C, Texas Ei• (V Washington ‘—C-

Z

Delaware) Alaska —
  • Nevada
CD Li.)

Virginiai______________________

  • u

(“D

Kentucky

!

‘ Indiana
  • I
—(5 Arizona
  • —Ii
Colorado ()

3:

District of Columbia
  • __________________________________
Maine —.

C

3 i- Illinois CD
  • North Carolina
RhodeMand ___________________ New Mexico — LI) Vermont
  • —
Pennsylvania 0) Tennessee
  • - 8
Mississippi South Carolina
  • Oeorgia
  • Alabama
ID Newiersey — 0 Michigan
  • Connecticut
—
  • .1
Louisiana I NewYork. Oregon

<

California I-

—

J Hawaii
  • :--------

b

Florida C 3 1._C 03 CM ID 051 (0
slide-31
SLIDE 31

a

Index (U.S.=100)
  • ‘
Mississippi
  • ___________

—

I

  • Arkansas
South Dakota I Alabama -
  • West Virginia
Kentucky (5 ________________ Missouri
  • C
Ohio

9

Oklahoma Iowa Nebraska South Carolina

3

Tennessee Kansas Louisiana KD Indiana
  • North Dakota
—. North Carolina _____________ —. Wisconsin
  • Michigan
—‘ Montana Vs

f l

New Metico II (D Wyoming : I.a
  • (5
Texas 0) Arizona
  • t
Utah Minnesota
  • (D
Maine

3

Ithode Island ______________________________ Nevada Pennsylvania Oregon _________________________________ C Florida Vermont
  • —
Illinois Delaware Colorado Virginia
  • Washington
  • New Hampshire
I Alaska I Massachusetts Connecticut 1

4i

Maryland California
  • New Jersey
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

— m H a w a u ’

District of Col5la
  • I
  • I
  • w
slide-32
SLIDE 32 1 I-,.

ci m ci

  • 1
Mississippi Idaho South Dakota Montana
  • Arkansas
Maine South Carolina
  • Nebraska
  • West Virginia
New Mexico Kentucky
  • Iowa
Indiana ) Kansas Utah Vermont Alabama Oklahoma
  • Wisconsin
Missouri — Nevada Florida
  • .
North Carolina Tennessee — — Hawaii Louisiana
  • Ohio
Wyoming
  • Oregon
  • Arizona
Georgia Michigan Rhode Island Pennsylvania North Dakota New Hampshire - Minnesota — Colorado Virginia Delaware Texas Alaska Illinois —

— —

I Washington

— —

Maryland.)

j_ —

California

— —

—

New lersey . — —

—

Connecticut
  • — —
Massachusetts New York —. —. District of Columbia
  • —-
(D I-i.
  • ‘
  • J

rQ

(DZ

Q-.

CD ..<

n

CD *

(0.

Id-i
  • iJ
— sJ u ci

p

ci ci

b

ci

b b

cis ci ci ci ci ci ci ci ci ci
  • sa
  • (is
  • is
j-s is — cn
  • ci
ci ci ci D C)

p p

i

ci ci ci ci C C- C ci ci C ci C ci ci ci ci ci a rD rs Sn r’.J
  • tO
I— 0-I 55) C

r

ci Sn 0) 0) ti (Ti as- O , C (Ti (Ti rD
  • ci
  • <
  • D
— ‘-I O c 0. — (SQ U

—U

b-i Ui
  • Ui
(D 0-I-’ rn Ui r-J
slide-33
SLIDE 33

Rewards for Education?

Earnings in Hawaii Versus US

Cl

40,000

L1.I 30,000

C

20,000 70,000 60,000 50,000

j

US

  • Hawaii

10,000

0 I

II I

Population 25 Less than high High school Some college years and over school graduate graduate
  • r associat&s
with earnings (includes degree equivalency)

Bachelors degree Graduate or professional degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014, American Community Survey 33

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Hawaii’s Aging Population

Hawaii Population Distribution, 2015 - 2025

65+ 55-64

_45-54

2025

‘ 35-44

2015

<2534

Dependency ratio: 15-24 0-14

  • 5

10 15 20 25

Percent of Total Population

Author’s calculations using

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

DBEDT data

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Labor Force Participation Decline

Figure 2-3, Projection of Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group (BLS)

90

SO

25to34

70

  • Total
60 ____

50 55 to 64 16 to 24 40

‘o :

6 5 t

  • 7

4

—

75 and over rr-’r”--—r----r

  • ‘r’-rrr’-r

rr

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Chart by DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 35

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Concerns

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 36

slide-37
SLIDE 37

External Risk Factors

Labor market shifts

u Role of technology/education

i Income inequality

Anti-globalization

1i Disillusion with free trade

i Resistance to migration

Brexit

Political uncertainties

Declining role of US

i

Political hotspots

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 37

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Internal

R i s k

factors

Insular

mentality

Focus on s e l f

  • s

u f f i c i e n c y i “Brain drain” or “brain gain”?

U n c e r t a i n t y about

H a w a i i a n

s

  • v

e r e i g n t y

i

TMT

a n d other issues

Debt and

u n f u n d e d

l i a b i l i t i e s Deciding

w h

  • w

e w a n t

t

  • be

i Singapore or Molokai? i

Are

t h e y m u t u a l l y

exclusive?

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workiorce Development Council 38

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Unfunded Liabilities: Hawaiian

Style

Unfunded liabilities are future debts.

Public employee retirement benefits:

$8.2 billion in total ($5,236 per Hawaii

resident)

i Public employee retiree health benefits:

$13.6 billion in total ($9,973 per Hawaii

resident)

Source: KaLbert Young, Dir. of B&F, “Overview of the State’s General Fund FiscaL Condition”, Dec. 2012

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 39

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Lessons f

  • r Labor

M a r k e t

U p h i l l

battle t

  • e

x p a n d our j

  • b
  • p

p

  • r

t u n i t i e s

To

succeed we need to

f i n d niches...

i

...but which niches?

N e e d p

  • l

i c i e s

that

i Are

p r

  • j
  • b

s

U

E n c

  • u

r a g e ,

embrace, and reward change

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 40

slide-41
SLIDE 41
  • Thanks. Questions?

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 41

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Extra slides

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 42

slide-43
SLIDE 43 C Mississippi

—

— A l a s k a
  • West Virgnia
A r k a n s a s
  • uisiana
— H a w a i i

AIama

Montana i South Dakota Kentucky is Oklahoma

3

North Dakota
  • Maine
T e n n e s s e e ___ South Carolrna
  • m
Nebraska 1) New Mexico
  • Wyoming
Missouri Florida tD — . District Of Columbia V i r g i n i a

II

Marand________

Iowa N e v a d a — Indiana °- P e n n s y l v a n i a — Kansas
  • V
N
  • r
t h Carolina

3 fl

O h i
  • Texas
— Arizona Rhode I s l a n d —. Illinois
  • Wisconsin•
N e w Y
  • r
k Delaware
  • Utah
Michigan N e w Jersey I d a h
  • Colorado -
Connecticut N e w Hampshire ____________________ Oregon) w Minnesota V e r m
  • n
t
  • Washington
rTI Massachusetts
  • California
  • 1
  • 0)

0<

Di Ott w (5,
slide-44
SLIDE 44

H a w a i i

J

  • b

G r

  • w

t h b y Sector

Leisureand Hospitality Professional & Business Services

Trade, Transportation, Utilities Education & Health Services Construction

_________

Financial Activities Manufacturing Other Services Government

(2,000) 2,000 6,000 10,000 14,000

Jobs Added 201 0-2015

Source: DBEDT

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 44

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Hawaii Personal Income

$50,000 $45,000 $40,000

C

z $35,000

g $30,000

$25,000 $20,000

  • - $15,000

$10,000

D

$5,000

Per Capita Personal Income, US and Hawaii

Source: US Bureau of

Hawaii Workforce Developmentc

conomic Analysis

I

United States =Hawaii

November 4, 2016 45

slide-46
SLIDE 46

State Government Revenues Grow

State General Fund Revenue Growth, 2006-16, change from prior year (%)

40 20

1:

  • Cl
  • Cl
  • Cl
  • Cl
  • Cl
  • Cl
  • Cl
  • Cl

Cl

.

Cl

  • aaaaaoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I CD CD

F

1- 0) 0)

  • .
C1 C’1

Cl Cl If)

U

CD
  • ‘
‘
  • v
t

000000000000000000000

Source: Hawaii State Department of Taxation

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 46

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Likewise for Counties

—Maui

Hawaii

Kauai Honolulu (Right Axis)

I

$300 $1,200 $250 $1,000

.$200

$500

$150

$600

:::

_—

‘‘“i

:;::

4’

4

çco

\

çb

4

ç

(14 ‘c_Is

  • Is

‘c-Is

<Is <Is <Is

Sources: County annual financial reports

Hawaii Workforce Development Council November 4, 2016 47
slide-48
SLIDE 48

Real Estate Prices Slow Recovery

120% Oahu Haw IsI Maui Kauai 100%

w

ii

4-’ C) C.)

40%

20% 0% Honolulu Board of Realtors

YTD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 2016 Sources: Hawaii Info Serv, Realtor Assoc Maui,

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 48

slide-49
SLIDE 49

z

CD CD

Jan-0

Jul-07

Jan-0

Jul-08

Jan-0

Jul-09 Jan-I Jul-10 Jan-I

Jul-Il Jan-I

Jul-12

Jan-I

Jul-13 Jan-I Jul-14

Jan-I Jul-15 Jan-I

P1
  • I

C,,

rM

CM

Cl)

CD CD

z

C-)

  • ‘

C

C,

  • C
C’,

Private Building Permits, 3-mo. Mov

ID

Avg ($ mu)

slide-50
SLIDE 50

Completed Construction Grows

Statewide Construction General Excise Tax Base

40 30

I

20

110

C,

C U a)

a--

  • 30

cd

d

‘V ‘V

b’ q,

  • ’
Oj’

‘

c’ ‘

,‘ ‘ o’

Source: Hawaii State Department of Taxation

Hawaii Workforce Development Council

i.miI.1

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November 4, 2016 50