GDP DRIVES US TOWARD FURTHER SUCCESS 3Q18 Highlight Performance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
GDP DRIVES US TOWARD FURTHER SUCCESS 3Q18 Highlight Performance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
GDP DRIVES US TOWARD FURTHER SUCCESS 3Q18 Highlight Performance by Business Financial Performance Projects Update Strategic Direction 2 Financial Highlight: 3Q18 & 9M18 performance Hyvahl & RDCC planned SD and lower product
Performance by Business Financial Performance Strategic Direction 3Q18 Highlight
2
Projects Update
Financial Highlight: 3Q18 & 9M18 performance
Hyvahl & RDCC planned SD and lower product spreads vs lower crude premium
27% 61% 12%
52,355 65,367 68,831 139,151 194,686
QoQ 5% YoY 31%
Overview of Business
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net Income
Unit: MB Unit: MB YoY 21% QoQ 37%
EBITDA
Unit: MB
6,635 7,162 5,258 13,890 17,809
QoQ 27% YoY 21% Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
EBITDA Net income
9M18
40% 51% 9% 71% 28% 1%
194,686 MB 17,809 MB
3,248 4,050 2,560 6,841 9,362 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
9,362 MB Market GIM ($/bbl) 15.05 13.86 12.37
51 72 74 51 70
Crude run KBD 201 210 203
- Acct. GIM ($/bbl)
16.09 17.47 14.10
3
3Q18
35% 55% 10% 71% 28% 1%
68,831 MB 5,258 MB
15% 71% 14%
2,560 MB Net Stock G/(L)($/bbl) 1.04 3.61 1.73
YoY 37% YoY 28% YoY 40%
170 209
TA in 1Q17
14.57 15.34 1.90 13.44 14.85 0.28
Awards & Achievement in 3Q18
received outstanding plant management
“Best SET Sustainability Awards 2018 And Thailand Sustainability Investment”
4
IRPC’s Achievement Social Contribution Marketing
By The Stock Exchange
- f Thailand (SET)
“Thailand Energy Awards 2018” For Plant Management By Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy “Excellent CG Scoring Company” Corporate Governance Report : CGR By Thai Institute of Directors (IOD) and The Stock Exchange
- f Thailand (SET)
“Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI) Member”
In Oil and Gas Refining & Marketing Industry
The 5th consecutive year, with the highest score By RobecoSAM “IRPC Join Guangzhao Saiju Performance Polymer Ltd.” Investment in plastic product E-Commerce business in The PRC and incorporation a subsidiary under the laws of Thailand “Top Community Care Companies in Asia 2018” By Asia Corporate Excellence & Sustainability Awards
5
IRPC’s DJSI Achievements
DJSI member for the 5th consecutive year
2018
2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed in “The Sustainability Year Book 2014” 1st year DJSI Member Listed 2nd year DJSI Member Listed 3rd year DJSI Member Listed 4th year DJSI Member Listed 2013 5th year DJSI Member Listed And ranked as Industry Leader
IRPC received the highest scores from Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI):
Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Industry Leader and being DJSI member for the 5th consecutive year
Expecting RobecoSAM Sustainability Award Gold Class 2019
2019
Performance by Business Financial Performance Strategic Direction 3Q18 Highlight
6
Projects Update
Petroleum Spread
7 + Higher demand from Europe and Persian Gulf + Lower export volume from Iran 11.8 11.4 13.9 13.0 14.8 14.6 14.4
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
- Soften Demand
- High inventories level in USA and Europe
- Higher export volume from China and South
Korea
14.8 14.2 16.1 14.4 13.7 12.1 11.6
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
(3.1) (1.8) (1.4) (3.1) (4.9) (4.4) (2.5)
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
500SN – FO 180 3.5%S Spread 150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl
Lube Base Spread Refinery Spread
Gas oil - Dubai ULG 95 - Dubai HSFO - Dubai
(13) (38) (28) (44) (55) (68) (41)
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
635 658 579 536 588 544 471
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
451 556 528 458 513 481 417
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
QoQ 13% QoQ 43% QoQ 13% QoQ 1% QoQ 40%
- Higher export volume from China
+ Higher demand from N.Asia, Australia and South Africa QoQ 4% + Tight supply + unplanned shutdown of Malaysian Refinery QoQ QoQ QoQ QoQ QoQ $/TON $/TON $/TON
- Lower import from China as
Yuan depreciation against USD
13% 11% 11% 13% 11% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 21% 21% 1% 9% 32% 29% 9% 30% 2% 2% 2% 18% 18% 17% 18% 18% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 15% 13% 14% 16% 13% 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 . 9M17 9M18
LPG Ethylene Propylene Benzene Rich Gasoline HCN Diesel Fuel oil Fuel Gas Internal use&Fuel Loss
0.9 0.8 0.8 2.2 2.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.3 2.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 4.5 5.2 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
Lube Asphalt
66% 68% 59% 66% 65% 34% 32% 41% 34% 35% 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
Sweet Crude Sour Crude
201 210 203 170 209
Petroleum Production
Lower U-Rate in 3Q18 due to Hyvahl & RDCC planned Shutdown
1.9 3.4 2.8 1.5 3.2 93% 98% 94% 79% 97% % U-Rate
Unit : Mbbl
Unit : Mbbl
LPG & Others Naphtha Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil
Remark: Excluding internal use quantity Premium over Dubai ($/bbl)
95% 104% 75% 72% 95% % U-Rate
Crude Intake RDCC Refinery Lube Base oil & Asphalt
87% 84% 82% 73% 85% % U-Rate 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.4 8.6 8.8 8.5 21.1 26.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 4.2 7.3 0.6 0.5 1.0 2.2 2.0
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7
11.3 12.6 12.6 29.5 37.4
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
8
66% 66% 57% 66% 63% 15% 14% 21% 19% 16% 5% 6% 9% 6% 8% 14% 14% 13% 9% 14%
Others Domestic Far East Middle East
Crude Run (KBD)
Petroleum Group : Sales & GRM
Lower Mkt. GRM : Lower petroleum spread & Hyvahl and RDCC planned shutdown
3.8 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.3 1.7
5.9 5.2 4.3 5.1 5.0
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18 Refinery Lube Base 4,327 4,688 4,915 11,706 14,248 14.3 15.0 15.3 37.3 45.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 4.6 5.3 16.1 16.8 17.0 42.0 50.7 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
Lube Base Refinery
31,053 41,246 43,998 82,772 122,800 Refinery 35,380 45,934 48,913 94,478 137,048
Sales Volume & Revenue 18.5 19.1 18.7 46.5 57.0 Crude intake (M.bbl)
Unit : $/bbl
Sales Distribution
Top 3 Export Destinations in 3Q18 : Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia
YoY 6% QoQ 1%
YoY 38% QoQ 6%
Sales volume (M.bbl) Revenue (MB) ❑ 9M18 : Petroleum revenue was Bt 137 bn
▪ YoY : 45% increase from 24% price increase & 21% volume increase due mainly to major TA in 1Q17
❑ 9M18 Market GRM was $5.0/bbl
▪ YoY : $0.1/bbl decrease as lower Lube Base Oil spread vs higher diesel spread 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
Market GRM ❑ 3Q18 Petroleum revenue was Bt 49 bn
▪ QoQ : 6% increase from 5% price increase & 1% volume increase ▪ YoY : 38% increase from 32% price increase & 6% volume increase
❑ 3Q18 Market GRM was $4.3/bbl
▪ QoQ: $0.9/bbl decrease due to lower petroleum spread, Hyvahl & RDCC planned shutdown vs lower crude premium over Dubai ▪ YoY: $1.6/bbl decrease due to lower Lube Base Oil spread, Hyvahl & RDCC planned shutdown and higher crude premium over Dubai
9
YoY 21%
YoY 45%
Petroleum Lube Base
Local 58% Export 42%
2Q18
Local 54% Export 46%
3Q18
10
Petrochemical Spread
200 170 159 109 137 115 121
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
591 544 622 626 659 581 550 171 286 201 284 367 427 267
762 830 823 910 1,026 1,008 817
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Ethylene-NP HDPE-Ethylene
192 202 182 114 182 164 217
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
1,029 878 977 905 998 945 898
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
435 296 323 258 406 362 361 228 365 356 363 287 298 256
663 661 679 621 693 660 617
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Propylene-NP PP-Propylene
HDPE-Ethylene –Naphtha Spread PP-Propylene –Naphtha Spread MX – Naphtha Spread Toluene – Naphtha Spread PS –Naphtha Spread ABS –Naphtha Spread
Olefins Styrenics Aromatics
1,382 1,226 1,377 1,353 1,428 1,379 1,248
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
- Lower demand from Monsoon
QoQ 19% QoQ 7% QoQ 5% QoQ 5% QoQ 9% QoQ 32%
- Higher utilization rate
- Soften demand from China
- Lower Chinese demand due to
weaken Yuan + Tight supply from turnaround QoQ QoQ QoQ QoQ QoQ QoQ + Increasing demand $/TON $/TON $/TON $/TON $/TON $/TON + Higher PX demand + Tight supply from turnaround in N.E.A.
- High production volume in China
- Weaken demand
109 106 87 253 297 4 4 6 9 14 81 87 86 229 250
194 197 179 490 561
100 75 61 192 209 162 196 202 401 592
261 271 263 592 801
Polyolefins
Petrochemical Group : Production
QoQ: Better Olefins’ U-Rate but lower Aromatics’ U-rate due to maintenance SD
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
97% 93% 95% 82% 92%
% U-Rate
**
98% 88% 90% 86% 88% Polyolefins 97% 100% 101% 78% 99% Olefins
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
104% 104% 97% 87% 100%
% U-Rate
**
92%
95% 94% 86% 91%
Polystyrenics
113%
109% 112% 96% 110%
Styrenics 110%
108% 92% 84% 103%
Aromatics
Olefins
Unit : KMT
Remark : * Production volume excluded internal use ** Utilization rate calculated based on main products
❑ 3Q18: 95% Olefins U-Rate (263 KMT)
▪ 2% higher U-rate (1 month HDPE planned SD in 2Q18)
Polystyrenics Styrenics Aromatics
❑3Q18: 97% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate (179 KMT)
▪ Aromatics: Lower U-rate from 1 wk Aromatics’ plant SD
Unit : KMT
11
Production Volume* Production Volume*
Petrochemical Group : Sales & PTF
Lower products spread caused lower PTF
185 194 176 459 552 270 281 275 676 829
455 475 451 1,135 1,381
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
Olefins & Polyolefins Aromatics & Styrenics
2.9 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.7 5.3 5.0 4.3 5.3 4.7 8.2 7.6 7.0 8.5 7.4
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18 Unit : $/bbl Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins
Sales Volume and Revenue Sales Distribution
Top 3 Export Destinations in 3Q18: Hong Kong, Singapore , Vietnam
QoQ 5% QoQ 2%
Revenue (MB) 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
YoY 1% YoY 17%
Market PTF ($/bbl)
16,251 18,649 19,058 42,674 55,265 9,543 11,081 11,495 24,702 33,165 6,708 7,568 7,563 17,972 22,100
12 YoY 22% YoY 30%
Petrochem Olefins
Aromaitcs& Styrenics
❑ 9M18 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 55 bn ▪ YoY : 30% increase from 8% price increase & 22% volume increase (major TA in 1Q17) ❑ 9M18 Market PTF was $7.4/bbl: ▪ YoY : $1.1/bbl decrease as lower products spread ❑ 3Q18 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 19 bn
▪ QoQ : 2% increase from 7% price increase vs 5% vol. decrease ▪ YoY : 17% increase from 18% price increase vs 1% volume decrease
❑ 3Q18 Market PTF was $7.0/bbl:
▪ Lower petrochemical spread ➔ lower PTF ▪ QoQ : $0.6/bbl decrease & YoY : $1.2/bbl decrease
Local 53% Export 47%
3Q18
Local 50% Export 50%
2Q18 18.5 19.1 18.7 46.5 57.0 Crude intake (M.bbl)
Market GIM
❑ 3Q18 Market GIM was $12.4/bbl, ➢QoQ: $1.5/bbl due to Hyvahl & RDCC planned SD and lower product spreads vs lower crude premium ➢YoY: $2.7/bbl due to Hyvahl & RDCC planned SD, lower product spreads and higher crude premium ❑ 9M18 Market GIM was $13.4/bbl: $1.2/bbl from 9M17 ➢Higher crude premium over Dubai while projects completion support margin
3.9 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.3 1.7
5.9 5.2 4.3 5.1 5.0
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18 Refinery Lube Base 5.3 5.0 4.3 5.3 4.7 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.7
8.2 7.6 7.0 8.5 7.4
Olefins Aromatics&Styrenics 5.9 5.2 4.3 5.1 5.0 8.2 7.6 7.0 8.5 7.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1
15.1 13.9 12.4 14.6 13.4
Petroleum Petrochem Power & Utility 3,662 3,184 2,681 8,171 9,126 5,107 4,661 4,312 13,531 13,617 562 648 674 1,631 1,986
9,331 8,493 7,667 23,333 24,729 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
9,331 8,493 7,667 23,333 24,729 1,098 2,171 1,017 1,661 3,382 (455) 44 54 (1,221) 108
9,974 10,708 8,738 23,773 28,219 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 9M17 9M18
15.1 13.9 12.4 14.6 13.4 1.8 3.5 1.6 1.0 1.8 (0.7) 0.1 0.1 (0.8) 0.1
16.1 17.5 14.1 14.9 15.3
Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging
Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl Unit: MB
Market GIM by business
Unit: $/bbl
Petrochemical Petroleum
Unit: MB 13
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)
Shutdown result in lower Mkt GIM & lower net stock gain affected lower Acct. GIM
YoY 18% QoQ 11% YoY 8% YoY 12% YoY 3% QoQ 19%
Accounting GIM
❑ 3Q18 Acct GIM was $14.1/bbl ▪ QoQ: $3.4/bbl due to $1.9/bbl lower stock gain and $1.5/bbl lower of market GIM ▪ YoY: $2.0/bbl due to $2.7/bbl lower market GIM VS $0.7/bbl higher stock gain ❑ 9M18 Acct GIM was $15.3/bbl: $0.4/bbl from 9M17 due to $1.6/bbl higher stock gain vs $1.2/bbl lower of market GIM
Performance by Business Financial Performance Strategic Direction 3Q18 Highlight
14
Projects Update
QoQ YoY 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 Net Sales 52,355 65,367 68,831 5% 31% 84.44 106.65 111.15 Market GIM 9,331 8,493 7,667 (10)% (18)% 15.05 13.86 12.37 Stock Gain/(Loss) 1,098 2,177 1,017 (53)% (7)% 1.77 3.55 1.64 LCM (0) (6)
- 100%
100% (0.00) (0.01)
- Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss)
(455) 44 54 22% 112% (0.73) 0.07 0.09 Net Stock Gain/(Loss) 643 2,215 1,070 (52)% 67% 1.04 3.61 1.73 Accounting GIM 9,974 10,708 8,738 (18)% (12)% 16.09 17.47 14.10 OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,715) (3,942) (3,851) 2% (4)% (5.99) (6.43) (6.22) Other Incomes 376 396 371 (6)% (1)% 0.61 0.65 0.60 EBITDA 6,635 7,162 5,258 (27)% (21)% 10.71 11.69 8.48 Depreciation (2,029) (2,047) (2,046) 0% (1)% (3.27) (3.34) (3.30) Cost of Finance (710) (437) (500) (14)% 30% (1.15) (0.71) (0.81) FX Gain/(Loss) 90 (73) 57 179% (36)% 0.15 (0.12) 0.09 Impairment Gain/(Loss)
- 51 (5)
- -
- 0.08 (0.01)
Investment Gain/(Loss) 109 202 203 1% 87% 0.17 0.33 0.33 Other Expenses
- (0) (2)
- -
- -
(0.00) Income Tax (846) (795) (395) 50% 53% (1.36) (1.30) (0.64) Net Profit 3,248 4,050 2,560 (37)% (21)% 5.25 6.62 4.12 Unit: $/bbl 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 % Change
15
Financial Highlight: 3Q18 performance
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
EBITDA Net income
3Q18
35% 55% 10% 71% 28% 1%
68,831 MB 5,258 MB
15% 71% 14%
2,560 MB
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
9M17 9M18 Net Sales 139,151 194,686 40% 86.91 105.79 Market GIM 23,333 24,729 6% 14.57 13.44 Stock Gain/(Loss) 1,662 3,389 104% 1.04 1.84 LCM (1) (7) (569)% (0.00) (0.00) Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (1,221) 108 109% (0.76) 0.06 Net Stock Gain/(Loss) 440 3,490 693% 0.27 1.90 Accounting GIM 23,773 28,219 19% 14.85 15.34 OPEX + Selling Exp. (11,003) (11,555) (5)% (6.87) (6.28) Other Incomes 1,120 1,145 2% 0.70 0.62 EBITDA 13,890 17,809 28% 8.68 9.68 Depreciation (5,038) (6,132) (22)% (3.15) (3.33) Cost of Finance (1,789) (1,409) 21% (1.12) (0.77) FX Gain/(Loss) 677 82 (88)% 0.42 0.04 Impairment Gain/(Loss) 238 46 (81)% 0.15 0.02 Investment Gain/(Loss) 322 575 79% 0.19 0.31 Other Expenses (9) (2) 76% (0.01)
- Income Tax
(1,445) (1,581) (9)% (0.90) (0.86) Net Profit 6,841 9,362 37% 4.26 5.08 Unit: $/bbl % Change 9M17 9M18
16
Financial Highlight: 9M18 performance
27% 61% 12%
9M18
40% 51% 9% 71% 28% 1%
194,686 MB 17,809 MB 9,362 MB
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
EBITDA Net income
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
699 3,734 6,358 6,438 17,416 1,936 4,516 3,363 6,887 699 7,098 8,294 13,325 21,932
2018 2019 2020 2021 >2021
THB Bond USD Loan THB Loan
128,324 126,970 8,637 9,220 45,438 52,753 2,145 2,336 87,650 88,996 2,378 2,537 55,812 51,347 38,704 48,399
Financial Position
Increase ST loans to support crude payment due to high crude oil price
Maturity of Long-term Debt
Debt Profile Statements of Financial Position Cash Flow
Unit : MB Remark: Long-term debt as at 30 Sep 2018
Unit: MB
PP&E Other Non-C/A Cash
184,544
Other Current Liabilities LT Liabilities
- incl. current port.
Shareholders’ Equity
- Sep. 2018
191,279
- Dec. 2017
Other CA Other Non- Current Liabilities
Beginning Cash 1 Jan 2018 Ending Cash 30 Sep 2018
Cash Flow from Operating
Unit: MB
Cash Flow from Investing Cash Flow from Financing
Net Debt = 61,412 MB
- Ex. Rate = 32.58 Baht/$
Financial Ratios
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
17
0.74 0.61 0.69
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18
0.85 0.90 1.00
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18
ST Loan 20% LT Loan (USD) 10% LT Loan (THB) 54% Bond (THB) 16%
Float 84 THB 66 Fixed 16 USD 34 Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Performance by Business Financial Performance Strategic Direction 3Q18 Highlight
18
Projects Update
19
UHV project : Major CAPEX
Improve product yield and earnings
IRPC’s refined Production Yield Upstream project for Hygiene & Value-added Products Objective : Upgrade low value to high valued-added products Investment : $ 1.1 bn COD : Jul. 2016 Benefit : GIM 1.5-2.0 $/ bbl
Assumption : Spread propylene to FO ~ 500-600 $/ton RDCC unit
➢ Feed Cut-in @ Jun 16 ➢ COD @ Jul 16
HYVAHL unit
➢ Feed Cut-in HS-ATB @ Jul 16 ➢ COD @ Jul 16
Performance Guarantee Test
➢ RDCC run 100% @ Oct 2016
Plant Acceptance (PAC) Jan 2017
43% 78% 95%
2016A 2017A 2018F
Upgrade to High Valued-Added products
131 123 163 367 220 326 74
HS-ATB LPG Ethylene
HYVAHL Propylene
Naphtha FO/FG
Middle Distillates
RDCC
C4 Raffinate III
Internal use & Loss
Unit : KTA 16% 5%
23%
9% 9% 26% 12%
Flow Diagram
LS-ATB
UHV
Designed Yield
23% 8% 11% 4% 4% 14% 10% 15% 12% 10% 40% 38% 45% 47% 48% 5% 10% 8% 9% 12% 16% 21% 16% 18% 16% 2% 5% 3% 5% 5% 6% 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% IRPC IRPC+UHV IRPC 2015A IRPC 2017A IRPC 2018F Ethylene Propylene LPG Naphtha Gasoline Diesel/Jet Fuel Lube Oil Fuel Oil
Designed Yield
20
Project Update
Gasoline Max. : Better than target, Cat. Cooler construction on schedule
Gasoline Maximization Project UHV Catalyst Cooler in RDCC plant CAPEX : ~ 800 MB IRR : ~ 80% Benefit : GIM: 0.4$/bbl COD : Nov.2017 Results: ➢ Gasoline volume increase 35 mn liters per month, higher than target of 25 mn liters
Demin
RDCC Plant ERU PRU Unit PNU Unit Prime G Unit
New column
Gasoline Blending Pool
~ 25 M.Litres/month
C2’s C3’s C4’s Naphtha
Modification Modification
Poly-gasoline (C8’s) 20 t/hr. to gasoline pool Heavy Oligomerate (C12+’s) 5 t/hr. to RDCC HCN (benzene <0.5 volume%) 27 t/h Gasoline pool Benzene rich cut 8 t/h LCN ERU – Ethylene Recovery Unit PRU – Propane-Propylene Splitting Unit PNU – Naphtha Oligomer Unit Prime G – Naphtha Hydro-treating Unit
CAPEX : ~ 1,320 MB IRR : ~ 35% Benefit : GIM: 0.3$/bbl Construction Progress : 68% ➢ 1st Tie-in be completed in Sept. 2018 ➢ 2nd Tie-in and shutdown for main equipment installation by Feb. 2019 for ~ 28 days ➢ COD: ~ 1Q19 Project Objective : ▪ Crude selection ➔ more heavy crude ▪ More electricity & steam
21
PPE&PPC Benefit Enhancement
Fulfill UHV benefits thru higher margin on PPE & PPC
Random PP
- Pipe grade
- Hygiene
Super Clear PP
- Container box
- Medical Device
Block-CO PP
- Household Material
- Heavy-duty
HOMO PP
- Film application
- Fiber grade
PP Specialty
- Frozen food packaging
- Lamination
- Health care
PP Compound
- Automotive:
pumper, instrument panel, etc
PPE 160 KTA
PPC140 KTA
Total PP 775 KTA in 2017
PP Existing 475 KTA PP Expansion and PP Compound Project
Compounding House PP inline compound
Lower cost : PPC production by Inline process technology
Note: Cost Saving
- No Packing & Logistic
- No 2nd Extruder Process
PP Marketing Strategy : Sales Plan Y2017 Volume: 600 Ktons Y2022 Volume: 760 Ktons
PP Expansion Project (PPE)
❖ Licensor : Novolen ❖ Capacity : 160 KTA ❖ PMC : Foster Wheeler, ❖ EPC : Sinopec
- CAPEX : $ 236 mn
- GIM 0.8-1.0 $/bbl
- COD : 4Q17
Top polypropylene producers in south-east Asia
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ExxonMobil Singapore 860 860 860 860 860 HMC Polymers Thailand 755 755 810 810 810 IRPC Thailand 475 475 475 775 775 TPP Thailand 720 720 720 720 720 TPC Singapore 625 625 625 625 625 Chandra Asri PC Indonesia 480 480 480 480 480 Polytama Indonesia 386 386 386 386 386 Lotte Chem. (M) Malaysia 373 373 373 373 373 Nghi Son Viet Nam
- 185
370 JG Summit PC Philippines 185 185 185 185 185
Unit : KTA
Source : IHS
Random PP 4% Homo PP 75% Block-CO PP 21% PP Compound 11% Random PP 10% Homo PP 58% Block-CO PP 21%
PP Compound & Specialties (PPC)
❖ Licensor : JPP ❖ Capacity : 140 KTA ❖ PMC : Foster Wheeler ❖ EPC : Sinopec
22
Refinery Regulation Concern
IMO regulations to start in 2020 which benefit to LS refinery as IRPC
Source : PIRA SPS 2017
1.5% 1.0% 4.5% 3.5% 0.5%
Jan-20
0.1% IMO implements new Sulfur spec Timeline of changes in Sulfur Emission Regulation
IMO to cut global SF limits from marine fuels : 3.5%➔ 0.5%
Global Bunker Demand, MMBD
Source: FGE’s Flash Alert 2 Feb’ 18
Consequence effects ▪ Demand of gasoil for marine bunker blending support gasoil spread, ▪ It is expected gasoil-FO spread will increase from 15-18$/bbl to 35-40$/bbl ▪ Though, lower fuel oil price bring back power generation demand ▪ Higher gasoil price and lower fuel oil price support light crude demand and push Dated/Dubai spread from 2$/bbl to 7$/bbl
3.54 1.25 1.30 2.56 1.00
1 2 3 4 5 6
2019 2020
HSFO Gasoil 0.5% Fuel
Global Bunker Demand, MMBD
23
E4E : Initiatives project
Capture more benefit thru LSFO project
❑ CAPEX : ~1MUSD (modify pipeline) ❑ Production : ~ 40-60 mn liters per month ❑ Margin improved : ~ 0.45$/bbl or ~40 MUSD per year ❑ Targeted Year : Y2020 & Y2021
Price Assumption to Study IMO effect.
Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Project
ADU VDU RDCC Hyvahl
in UHV
DCC
SEU/ PDU DAU/ ABU Asphalt Extract VR Asphaltene LCO + DO LCO ETP PGO LS-FO LCO Sell
G
24
Petroleum and Petrochemical Value Chain
Optimized Configuration & Product Diversification
Olefins Plant Propylene
Ethylene Acetylene Butadiene 180 KTA 360 KTA 6 KTA 56 KTA Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO)
PP
PS ABS/SAN EPS CCM Acetylene Black HDPE
Ethylene Acetylene Propylene Benzene Toluene Mixed Xylene Butadiene
CD1
Ethylene
EBSM Long Residue
4 KTA 140 KTA 775 KTA Ethylene Rich Gas
DCC
Propylene 132 KTA
ADU (1,2)
215 KBD Naphtha Reformate UHV
Ethylene Propylene 320 KTA 73 KTA
Lube Base
Lube Base Oil Asphalt 320 KTA 600 KTA
BTX
Benzene Toluene Mixed Xylene 114 KTA 132 KTA 121 KTA 31 KTA 57 KTA 179 KTA 125 KTA 48 KTA 260 KTA Styrene Monomer Acrylonitrile
Feed (Crude Oil / Condensate)
Transportation Fuel
Gasoline, Jet Diesel
PRP
HS ATB Propylene 100 KTA Pyrolysis Gasoline Raffinate Styrene Monomer LS ATB 65% 18% 7% 10%
Crude/Condensate Portfolio
Middle east Far east Domestic Others For sale
16% 22% 31% 34% 35% 39% 43% 45% 50% 55% 60%
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
25
Specialty Petrochemical Products
Specialty & Commodity Plus Products to reach 50% in 2018
IRPC 50% PPC Rokita 50%
IRPC A&L
IRPC 60% Nippon A&L 37%
Sumithai 3%
Joint Venture Polyol Sale Volume (SP+CP) Unit: MT PPE PPC
160 KTA 140 KTA COD Dec. 2017 COD Sept. 2017
30% volume growth mainly from PPE&PPC
Performance by Business Financial Performance Strategic Direction 3Q18 Highlight
26
Projects Update
27
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020
Power of Growth, Power of Digital & Power of People: “GDP”
Capaci city Before Afte ter
Propylene (UHV) 412 KTA 732 KTA
2010 2014
Margin Improvement
- Operational Excellence
- Commercial Excellence
- Procurement & HR
Excellence
Benefit +135 MUSD
INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP SYNERGY PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE INNOVATION RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOCIETY INTEGRITY & ETHICS TRUST & RESPECT
Projects Completion
- Operational Efficiency Improvement
- Asset Utilization Enhancement
- Product and Service Improvement
- Capacity and Products Expansion
Incremental Margin and Organization Health
- Capability Building
- Owner mindset & Performance
Orientation
- Cultural Changes
Fully Integrated PP Revenue Growth of 5% EBITDA Growth of 10% 1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry
STRONG
Member of DJSI Emerging Markets Universe
Capacity Before After PP (PPE&PPC) 475 KTA 775 KTA
2017
2016
Capacity Before After CHP I
- Electricity
- Steam
PRP EBSM 108 MW 200 T/hr 312 KTA 200 KTA 328 MW 620 T/hr 412 KTA 260 KTA
BIG LONG
Leading Integrated Petrochemical Complex in Asia by 2020
Power of Growth
G
Power of Digital
D
Power of People
P
28
GDP: From Aspiration to Execution
Power Three : 3 Pillars for achieve Top Quartile in 2020
Power of Dig Digital Power of People
Truly embed and live the IRPC DNA Develop next generation of Top 30 leaders Continue to establish lean, fit-for-purpose
- rganization
P
Power of Gr Growth
Maximum aromatics for competitiveness Growth by M&A Everest forever for sustainable growth Drive R&D excellence
G
100
MUSD
100
MUSD
OPS 4.0 Smart Operation (AI) ISC 4.0 Integrated Supply Chain CCM 4.0 Customer Centric Digital ERP 4.0 ERP Transformation PRO 4.0 Lean procurement
100
MUSD
D
MARS - Maximum Aromatics
Reformer Benzene 300-500 KTA Paraxylene 1,000-1,300 KTA Naphtha PX Project: Aromatic Complex
Internal use & Export Export
Naphtha Treating unit HCN Toluene, Xylene, HA
Internal use & Export Other Products:
LPG, Raffinate, Raw Hydrogen, Fuel Gas
200 KTA
CAPEX: $1.0 bn - $1.1 bn IRR 14%-16% Petrochemical Yield 17%
Existing + UHV
Petrochemical Yield 27%
>>
Key Rational
- Utilize excess Naphtha /Toluene/Xylene
as feedstock to maximize PX and BZ products
- Cost competitiveness
thru new technology
- Affirmed PX demand growth:
CAGR: 4% - 5%
G
Maximum Aromatic Project : MARS
Utilize IRPC owned feed and increase Petrochemical Yield
COD: 1Q23 Feasibility study and Technology selection Basic Engineer Design Package/FEED Construction
2023 2019 2017 2020 2018
EPC BOD approval
- n CAPEX
Early 2019 BOD final approval on EPC Bidding by mid 2019
29
30
Strategic Initiative – Everest Forever (E4E)
To reach 100 MUSD benefit within 2020
1,870 1,870 1,870 2,456 2,456 2,456 4,736 4,736 4,736 1,160 2,440 3,300
491 498 491
288
2018
498 491
2019
288 498 288
2020+ E4E ISC OPS CCM Corp-Non HR PROC Corp-HR
OHI: Organization Health Index >>
86
1st Quartile OHI
xx
1st Quartile OHI (EBIT) (EBIT) (EBIT)
‘Maintain top quartile OHI’
Unit: MTHB EBIT 10,300 EBIT 10,300 EBIT 10,300
Target
(100 MS)
G
31
M&A under “Galaxy” project
Focus in Petrochemical Industry
▪ Petrochemical and/ or related petrochemical business with synergy value ▪ Why Galaxy :
- Align with aspiration: “Leading Integrated Petrochemical Complex in Asia by 2020”
- Growth Ambition: Invest to deliver targeted EBITDA of $100-200 Million
- Expeditious success
G
32
Newest investment thru “Galaxy”
Polymers e-commerce platform: “IPLAS”
Investment Profile
▪ Company: Guangzhao Saiju Performance Polymer Ltd, China ▪ Business: E-commerce platform for variety of plastic products under “IPLAS” platform ▪ Website: www.isuwang.com & www.suwen8.com ▪ Investment size: ~ 650 MB ▪ Exit strategy: IPO by 2021-2023 Shareholding Structure
- Founders
46%
- IRPC (new shares) 15%
- Others
39%
Investment Profile
New market and distribution
Benefit :
Big data analytic Leverage know-how
IPLAS : provide market place for supplier and buyer focusing in SME IPLAS : serve logistic as option for buyer and be included in prices IPLAS : service buyers for credit term thru interest charged in prices
IPLAS’s PLATFORM : one stop service provider
33
IRPC 4.0 Target
2.1 4.8 10.0 5.9 15.0 6.1 10.4 24.4 29.4 58.2 2020 3.5 > 100 2018 2019 11.5 50.3 OPS 4.0 CCM 4.0 PRO 4.0 ISC 4.0 ERP 4.0
24
Digital passive
81
Digital leader
DAI: Digital Assessment Index >> ‘Improve DAI to be digital leader’
Unit: MUSD
19 initiatives will be launched in Y2018
34
IRPC 4.0
Developing implementation plan through IRPC supply chain
O3 - Utility demand forecasting O2 - Mass balance reconciliation system E1 - SAP revisit I3 - Control tower decision making O4-O5 Rotating Machine PM O1 - EKON$ P1 - Spend cube analytics / SRM I1 - Crude selection
Supply Production/
- peration
Distribution Customer Market/ Competitor
Digital Organization Data Lake Robust ERP Backbone Secured Technology Agile Way of Work
Collaboration platform with cross function team
P2 - Advance material mgmt. C4 - End-to-end CRM C1 - Advanced pricing algorithm C6 - Market & competitors intelligence C3 - Big data analytics to predict demand E2 - Tech function E3a - Data governance / Reporting & big data analytics I2 - Collaborative asset tech. platform P3 - Demand planning (non-HC) C5 - B2B portal P4 - Process workflow re-design C2 - Customer industry platform O6 - Catalyst lifecycle prediction O10 - Maintenance advanced scheduler O8 - Crude blending
- ptimization
O12 - Smart operator app & wearable safety device
35
People – IRPC Capability building
2 major capability building programs; for soft and hard skills
1 3 Soft skills Hard skills Everest Academy LEAD program for managers
▪
Problem Solving
▪
Team Management
▪
Communication for impact
▪
GREAT Leader
▪
Operation: Model plant
▪
PSM: e3 operating model
▪
Commer- cial: 8+4 M&S Academy 4 Digital Academy
▪
Digital Leadership: Agile leadership, Digital trends, Industry 4.0, Innovation mgt.
▪
Digital Business Capabilities: Digital OPS, MKT 4.0, Design thinking, Advance analytics 2 AGILE change the way of working
▪
Agile way of working
▪
Scrum master
Thank You
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation. The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
Investor Relations Contact: ir@irpc.co.th
- Tel. +662-765-7380, Fax. +662-765-7379