ND Economy Remarkable Shift Over 10 Years 2007 - ND GDP $29 B 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ND Economy Remarkable Shift Over 10 Years

Mining 10% Wholesale 9% Retail 6% Ag 5% Const. 7% Trans. 5% Finance/real estate 16% Ed./health care 8% All other categories 34%

2017 - ND GDP $53 B

Mining 4% Wholesale 7% Retail 7% Ag 9% Const. 4% Trans. 4% Finance/real estate 15% Ed./health care 9% All other categories 41%

2007 - ND GDP $29 B

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ND’s Incredible Growth From 2009-2014

$32 $59 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70

US (Trillions) ND and SD (Billions) ND SD US

State Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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ND’s Oil Boom – Growth in Oil Production Corresponds to Growth In GDP

0.09 1.18 1.04 1.28

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Millions BOPD

Annual Oil Production in Millions of Barrels Per Day

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ND Oil Tax Revenues Volatile History – Return to Growth

$0.2 $0.4 $0.8 $1.6 $4.0 $6.0 $2.9 $4.5 $4.6

$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15 2015-17 2017-19 2019-21

Billions

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Oil Tax Revenues Exceed General Fund Revenues

$3.8 $4.5

$0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0

General fund Oil taxes

2017-19 Biennium - General fund revenues excluding oil taxes compared to total oil taxes (in Billions)

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2017-19 General Fund Revenue Sources Heavy Reliance on Sales Tax

Sales, Use, and Motor Vehicle Tax 43% Ins Premium Tax 2% Individual Income Tax 17% Cig & Tobacco Tax 1% Corp Income Tax 3% Oil Tax 9% Coal Tax 1% Transfers/Misc 22% Dept Collections 2% 2017-19 Executive Forecast December 2018

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$1,265.8 $792.5 $829.1 $985.7

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 Millions

Sales Taxes Return to Growth After 40% Decline

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Executive Budget Priorities

• Develop accurate revenue forecast using

best practices

• Limit growth in ongoing spending
• Balance ongoing state revenues and

expenses

• Use one-time revenues for one-time

expenses

• Use Legacy Fund earnings for one-time

investments with lasting impact

• Restore state savings account

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100 100 200 200 325 325 386 386 584 584 573 573 38 38 38 38 75 75 312 312 315 315

09 09-11 11 05 05-07 07 03 03-05 05 07 07-09 09 Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Tax Allocations Tax Allocations 15 15-17 17 11 11-13 13 13 13-15 15 17 17-19 19 19 19-21 21 Proposed Proposed Transfer from Transfer from General Fund General Fund Transfer from Transfer from Strategic Investment Strategic Investment & Improvements & Improvements Fund Fund Beginning Beginning Balance Balance 741 741

Budget Stabilization Fund Budget Stabilization Fund

Balance at the beginning of the biennium ($ millions)

Replenishing Rainy Day Fund

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Joe Morrissette

Director jmorrissette@nd.gov 701.328.4606 600 East Boulevard Avenue, Dept. 110 Bismarck ND 58505-0400 nd.gov/omb