National and Regional Economic Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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National and Regional Economic Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2017 National and Regional Economic Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) 6.0

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SLIDE 1

2017 National and Regional Economic Outlook

Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

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SLIDE 2

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2009 Dollars )

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000 $15,500 $16,000 $16,500 $17,000

  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) % 4Q16 +1.9%

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SLIDE 3

126 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 148 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Month-to-Month Change (000s) Total (Millions)

US Payroll Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2016

+2.2 M

Dec

+156, 000 Since 2010 +14.4 M

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SLIDE 4

5 10 15 20 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

U.S. Unemployment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)

60 65 70

Dec 9.2%

U-6 UR LFPR

Dec 4.7% Dec 62.7%

2016

U-6

  • 0.7%

UR.

  • 0.2%
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SLIDE 5

Average Weekly Wages

Across all Industries

  • $30
  • $20
  • $10

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 QOTYC Average Weekly Wage 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Average Weekly Wage)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 6

40 45 50 55 60 65

Mfg N-Mfg

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Dec 2016 Mfg = 54.7 N-Mfg = 57.2

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SLIDE 7

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000

Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis)

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales

(000s) (000s)

Source: U.S. Census (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)

2016

+0.7% 40,000

2016

+10% 54,000

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SLIDE 8

Labor Productivity

Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 40 60 80 100 120

  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6

QOTYC Productivity Index

Base year (100) = 2009

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SLIDE 9

U.S. Leading Index

Month-Over-Year Percent Change

  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Nov = 124.6 (2010 = 100.0)

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SLIDE 10

Consumer Confidence

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 11

Determinants of Growth

  • Inflation
  • When does the spending become

inflationary?

  • Spending vs. Revenue vs. Debt
  • Interest rates
  • Fed action and market reaction
  • Productivity
  • Will we prioritize productivity

enhancing programs & spending

  • Adaptability
  • Technology change is a given
  • Corporate tax rates
  • When and how much
  • Infrastructure
  • What, where, when, how
  • Immigration
  • Impact on labor force availability
  • Corporateinvestment
  • Repatriating profits does not mean
  • spending. Global markets matter.
  • Tradepolicy
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SLIDE 12

1.8

  • 0.3
  • 2.8

2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.8 1.2

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 2017

U.S. GDP 2007 – 2016 – 2020

(Annual % Change)

%

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SLIDE 13

The Washington Economy

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SLIDE 14

Annual Job Change -Washington MSA

2,850 2,900 2,950 3,000 3,050 3,100 3,150 3,200 3,250 3,300 3,350

  • 10

10 30 50 70 90 110 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Dec-16 Total: 3,288 K

000’s 000’s

2016 +66.6 K

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SLIDE 15

Federal Government Washington MSA

345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MOTYC (000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Dec-16 Total: 374.3

(000s)

2016 +2.0% 7,500

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SLIDE 16

Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 1980-2016 (Fiscal Years)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

73.8

$ Billions

TOTAL = $1,409.7 Billion

79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1

Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov

71.2 82.4

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SLIDE 17

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

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SLIDE 18

Job Change by Sector Dec 2015 – Dec 2016 Washington MSA

1 1

  • 3

2 1 8 7 7 13 7 24

  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

  • Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt.

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 66,600

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 19

2 4 6 8 10 12

5.4 – DC 4.7 – U.S.

3.7 – MSA

3.6 – SMD 3.3 – NVA

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

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SLIDE 20

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Median House Sales Price Washington MSA

$395.7K Dec 2016

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (000s)

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SLIDE 21

%

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2016 – 2020

(Annual % Change)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 2017

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SLIDE 22

Employment Change in the Washington MSA

(Thousands of Jobs)

Average Annual Change 1990-2012 = 36,500

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

28.1 18.6 59.4 66.6 49.2 36.0 31.2 29.6

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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SLIDE 23

Where are we?

  • We are growing:
  • Some diversification
  • Some catch-up
  • Recent job growth across all

wage levels

  • Growth will continue in

2017, but at a moderating pace

  • Advantages
  • Government Center
  • International Institutions
  • Connectivity to the World
  • Concentration of Leaders
  • Access to capital
  • High Quality-of-Life
  • Diverse Population
  • Higher Education
  • Educated Work Force
  • Advanced Occupational

Specializations

  • Challenges
  • Drain the swamp/Sequester
  • Further market shifts needed
  • Cost of living/doing business
  • Mobility
  • Access to capital
  • Regional branding /

cooperation

  • Globally competitive?
  • Understanding changing

nature of jobs

  • Productivity
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SLIDE 24

Thank You Questions tclower@gmu.edu

cra.gmu.edu