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Boulder Economic Forecast Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado Real GDP Growth Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP 1990-2014 Percent 10.0 Annualized GDP Annualized GDP 8.0 1990-1999 2000-2009 6.0

  2. Boulder Economic Forecast Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  3. Real GDP Growth Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP 1990-2014 Percent 10.0 Annualized GDP Annualized GDP 8.0 1990-1999 2000-2009 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 Quarterly GDP -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  4. National Employment Thousands, Month- over-Month Recession Recession 500 8 Months 18 Months 300 100 -100 -300 -500 -700 -900 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and Moody’s Analytics Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  5. National Employment Months to Recovery Percent 2.0 2008-Present 1980 1974-76 1981-83 1990-93 2001-05 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 82 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 Number of Months Since Previous Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  6. National Employment Growth Peak-to-November 2014 Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted.

  7. U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Percent Disposable Income Personal Consumption Change Change 4.5 4.0 4 2.8% 3.0 3.5 2.3% 2.9% 3 2.0 2.5% 2.5 1.0 2 1.5 0.0 1 -1.0 0.5 0 -2.0 -0.5 -1 -3.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  8. Household Wealth $ Billions 50,000 45,000 40,000 Mutual Funds 35,000 30,000 Corporate Equities 25,000 20,000 15,000 Real Estate 10,000 5,000 0 1Q 2000 3Q 2001 1Q 2003 3Q 2004 1Q 2006 3Q 2007 1Q 2009 3Q 2010 1Q 2012 3Q 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  9. Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR FOR 15.0 20.0 14.0 19.0 Financial Obligations Ratio (R) 13.0 18.0 12.0 17.0 11.0 16.0 Debt Service Ratio (L) 10.0 15.0 9.0 14.0 8.0 13.0 Q2 1994 Q3 1996 Q4 1998 Q1 2001 Q2 2003 Q3 2005 Q4 2007 Q1 2010 Q2 2012 Q3 2014 Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  10. Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession Recession Recession 8 months 8 months 18 months 160 Mountain Region 140 120 100 80 United States 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  11. Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Thousands, SAAR YOY, Percentage Change 25,000 15.0 10.0 20,000 5.0 15,000 0.0 10,000 -5.0 5,000 -10.0 0 -15.0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Autodata Corp., Motor Intelligence, U.S. Census Bureau. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  12. Nominal Corporate Profits and U.S. Business Fixed Investment Percent Percent Nominal Pre-Tax Business Fixed Change Change Corporate Profits Investment 10.0 30.0 6.1% 25.0 5.8% 5.0 20.0 15.0 0.0 7.3% 10.0 5.0 -5.0 0% 0.0 -10.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -15.0 -20.0 -20.0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  13. National Housing Starts Millions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.2 1 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  14. Money, Interest Rates, and Prices Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  15. Interest Rates Percent Interest Rates, 2000-2014 7.0 6.0 10-Year T-Note 5.0 4.0 3.0 3-Month T-Bill 2.0 1.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Treasury. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  16. National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change 6 5 4 All items less food and energy 3 2 1 All items 0 Shelter -1 -2 -3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  17. Summary • Global output and trade growth modest • Value of the dollar strengthening • GDP growth accelerates • Fiscal tightening • Housing continues to recover • Balance sheets getting stronger • Consumers active • Business investment grows • Inflation and interest rates remain low Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  18. Colorado Economy Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  19. Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  20. Change in Population Change in Colorado Population In 2013 . . . 2005-2015 Thousands 100 • Among top 5 states for absolute 90 growth 80 • 3 rd fastest for percentage growth 70 60 • 22 nd -most population in U.S. 50 40 • Continued net migration into the state 30 20 • 83% of population in 12 Front 10 Range counties 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Colorado Demography Office. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  21. Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands 100 80 61.3 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, BEOF Committee Members. Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  22. Colorado Employment Months to Recovery Colorado Employment Months to Recovery Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 January 2008-September 2014 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 January 2001-May 2007 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  23. Employment Recovery National, State, and Local Percent 8.0 Denver 6.0 Boulder 4.0 Colorado 2.0 National 0.0 -2.0 Colorado Springs -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  24. Employment Recovery National, State, and Local Percent 20.0 15.0 Greeley 10.0 Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Boulder 5.0 Colorado Pueblo 0.0 National Colorado Springs -5.0 Grand Junction -10.0 -15.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  25. Employment Change 2013-2014 Employment in Thousands 2,450 Mining Info Mfg 2013 Finance Other 2,440 Govt L&H 2,430 EHS Total jobs lost: 2,420 300 TTU 2,410 Const 2,400 Total jobs gained: 61,600 PBS Net change: 2,390 61,300 2,380 2012 2,370 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (NSA). Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  26. Employment Change 2014-2015 Professional and Business Services Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Construction Government Financial Activities Natural Resources and Mining Manufacturing Other Services Information 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Thousands of Jobs Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

  27. Construction Value of Construction Nonbuilding 14% Residential Nonresidential 55% 30% Photo Courtesy www.rtd-fastracks.com Business Research Division • Leeds School of Business • University of Colorado

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