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IGU - all G20 countries represented > 95 % of the global gas market
www.igu.org
83 Charter members 43 Associate members IGU members
Founded in 1931
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16 16
Gas Market Emergency Workshop Torstein Indreb Secretary General of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Gas Market Emergency Workshop Torstein Indreb Secretary General of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
G20 Energy Sustainability Working Group Gas Market Emergency Workshop Torstein Indreb Secretary General of IGU February 10-13, 2014 Melbourne, Australia IGU - all G20 countries represented > 95 % of the global gas market 16 16 Founded
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Gas – fueling more of the world!
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Source: ExxonMobil 2014
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Evolution of gas markets
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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1980 1990 2000 2010 Domestic production International LNG exports International natural gas exports by pipeline
Unit: Billion cubic metres Source : CEDIGAZ
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Global drivers in energy politics -
- bservations
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Job creation and competitiveness Health and air quality Households - increased energy costs Climate change agenda Energy poverty - a global challenge
Policies increasingly impacting energy markets
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Global gas markets
- North America – the shale gas revolution
– Boosting economy and reducing CO2 emissions
- Europe – gas squeezed
– Renewables subsidies and low coal prices
- Asia and South America
– Gas pricing a key issue
- Middle East/Africa – domestic use and export
Huge regional variations!
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Evolution of global gas prices
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Source: IGU World LNG Report – 2013
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Diversification of supply routes and suppliers
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Europe – LNG & pipeline grid interconnected
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Minsk
- St. Petersburg
Bratislava Berlin Rome Ljubljana Zagreb Oslo Algiers Madrid C
- rdoba
London C
- penhagen
Prague Warsaw Vienna Stockholm Helsinki Athens Paris Essen Lisbon Budapest Tunis Brussels Sofia Bern Lyon Belgrade Dublin Bucharest Emden
Huelva Cartagena Barcelona Fos-sur-Mer La Spezia Montoir Zeebrugge Tyra Ekofisk
Kårsto Kollsnes
Troll Gullfaks Statfjord Heimdal Frigg Sleipner
Stavanger
Oseberg
W' haven Belfast Minsk
- St. Petersburg
Bratislava Rome Ljubljana Zagreb Oslo Algiers Madrid C
- rdoba
London C
- penhagen
Prague Warsaw Vienna Stockholm Helsinki Athens Paris Lisbon Budapest Tunis Brussels Sofia Bern Lyon Belgrade Dublin Bucharest
Huelva Cartagena Barcelona Fos-sur-Mer La Spezia Montoir Zeebrugge Tyra Ekofisk
Kårsto Kollsnes
Troll Gullfaks Statfjord Heimdal Frigg Sleipner
Stavanger
Oseberg
W' haven Belfast Arzew Skikda
Bilbao Istanbul Sines Krk Rovigo El Ferrol Valencia Brindisi Isle of Grain
Milford Haven
Emergency situations can be managed
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Source: IHS CERA, various sources.
China’s diversified gas supply sources
China 2012: Production 107 bcm Consumption 144 bcm
Source: BP Statistics 2013
Turkmenistan supplies 30 bcm/yr plus Myanmar supplies 10 bcm/yr plus
Source: SHWE Gas Movement
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LNG offers enhanced energy security
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Source: IGU World LNG Report 2013
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Supply disruptions and responses
- High pressure pipes extremely reliable
– Underground pipes not exposed to weather
- Gas industry used to variable demand
– Annual, seasonal, daily
- Portfolio of supply sources
- Market response: use of flexibility and trade routes
– Information sharing and business relationship
Keep supply and trade routes open!
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Prevention planning for supply disruptions
- Gas storage and grid interconnections
- Gas based power – smart grids
- Cross border pipelines and reverse flow
- LNG swap and loan arrangements
National & regional analysis needed
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Trading arenas offers options for mitigation of interruptions
- Trading hubs for spot volumes, short and medium
- Price exchange, forward market
- Need liquidity and support
- Flexible delivery points - destination clauses
- US:
Henry Hub, other regional Europe: NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF
Risk management instrument
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Policy and regulation to encourage investments
- Investments in gas infrastructure
– International partnership, risk sharing, long term contacts
- Market-oriented prices and tariffs
- Facilitate transfer of technology
- Financing and tax regime
Enable business to do business!
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Impact of of new technology….
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New LNG suppliers emerging
- facilitates disruption management
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Source: BP Energy Outlook 2014
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UN – World Bank initiative “Sustainable Energy for All”: IGU/gas industry contributing with competence
SE4All: led by IGU Wise Person dr K. Yumkella
Access to sustainable energy & economic development based on gas
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Fukushima earthquake - 11 March 2011
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LNG replaced nuclear (NBR/METI)
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REN COAL LNG OIL NUCLEAR
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Supply post-Fukushima
- Around 12.5 million tons in 2011 from the Atlantic Basin
– Cargoes diverted from West Africa and Europe
- Europe – increased pipeline supplies (Russia, Norway)
- LNG demand increase 15 mill tons in 2012 (20 bill cm)
- Qatar, Russia, Malaysia and Indonesia arranged swaps and
diverted cargoes.
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Successful response by gas industry
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Conclusions – strengthening gas markets
- G20 – enhance the energy dialogue
– Governments, industry, international organisations
- Policies to support infrastructure investments
- Transfer policy competence/experience
– What works and what does not work?
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G20 support for stable regulatory framework
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