Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling Mikiko Kainuma National - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Mikiko Kainuma

Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling

• n Climate Policy, October 25, 2002

Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

CO2 emission intensity

1995 2032 2032 Market Policy

0 5 10 100 1000 gC/m2/year

Population projection in Market First Scenario

Japan Oceania South East Asia East Asia South Asia 2000 2015 2030

Asia-Pacific Western, Eastern, South Africa America Europe + CIS Middle East + Northern Africa

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 million

Population projection in Security First Scenario

2000 2015 2030

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Japan Oceania South East Asia East Asia South Asia million

Asia-Pacific Western, Eastern, South Africa America Europe + CIS Middle East + Northern Africa

World GDP in Market First Scenario

2000 2015 2030 Middle East +Northern Africa Europe + CIS America Western, Eastern, South Africa

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Billion US$ 1995

Japan Oceania South East Asia East Asia South Asia

Asia-Pacific

2000 2015 2030 Middle East +Northan Africa Europe+CIS America W,E,S Africa Asia-Pacific

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Billion US$ 1995

Japan Oceania South East Asia East Asia South Asia

World GDP in Security First Scenario

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year CO2 emissions (Mt-C) Historical data Market First Policy First Security First Sustainability First

Energy related CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region

• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 South East Asia South Asia East Asia Central Asia Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Japan Mongolia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands India Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

MK PO SC SU MK: Market First PO: Policy First SC: Security First SU: Sustainability First MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU ANZ and South Pacific

• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 South East Asia South Asia East Asia Central Asia Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Japan Mongolia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands India Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

Afghanistan Bangladesh Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Japan Mongolia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands India Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK: Market First PO: Policy First SC: Security First SU: Sustainability First MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU ANZ and South Pacific

Change in energy related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region

• 3.0
• 2.5
• 2.0
• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen)

GDP loss caused by

Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

2005 2010

Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto

(without international emission trade)

Recovery by investment in advanced technology development

2005 2010

Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto

(without international emission trade)

• 3.0
• 2.5
• 2.0
• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen)

GDP loss caused by

Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

Recovery by increasing environmental premium

• f consumption

2005 2010

Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto

(without international emission trade)

• 3.0
• 2.5
• 2.0
• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen)

Recovery by investment in advanced technology development

GDP loss caused by

Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO2 Emission (MtCO2)

A1 A2 B1 B2

102 96 98 96 A1 A2 B1 B2 105 88 87 83

< Countermeasure case >

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2 A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

(1990=100)

Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model

450 ppmv 550 ppmv

650 ppmv

Business as Usual

2000 2050 2100 10 20 30 40

CO2 emissions （GtC）

Necessary reductions for stabilization assuming Business as Usual development path

4.1 2.9 2.3 1.2 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Environmental Innovations for Cost Reduction