A GREENER GREATER NEW YORK Travel Demand Modeling for analysis of Congestion Mitigation policies October 24, 2007
Analyzing congestion mitigation measures Analyzing congestion mitigation measures � How would alternative policies impact: � How would alternative policies impact: � Amount of driving in Manhattan (both trips and VMT)? � Amount of driving in Manhattan (both trips and VMT)? � Mode shift of drivers to transit? � Mode shift of drivers to transit? � Air quality? � Air quality? � Revenue available for transit capital expansion? � Revenue available for transit capital expansion?
Analyzing congestion mitigation measures Analyzing congestion mitigation measures � Only a regional travel demand model like NYMTC’s Best Practices � Only a regional travel demand model like NYMTC’s Best Practices Model (BPM) can answer these questions Model (BPM) can answer these questions � Regional Travel Demand Models: Show how regional traffic and transit � Regional Travel Demand Models: Show how regional traffic and transit flows respond to changing land use, infrastructure and toll policy flows respond to changing land use, infrastructure and toll policy conditions. conditions. � Modeling tools commonly used in EIS and site-specific studies � Modeling tools commonly used in EIS and site-specific studies � Microsimulations: Show how a fixed amount of traffic flows through a � Microsimulations: Show how a fixed amount of traffic flows through a corridor or network. corridor or network. � Intersection level analyses: Show the detailed operation of individual � Intersection level analyses: Show the detailed operation of individual intersections. intersections.
Best Practice Model (BPM) Development Best Practice Model (BPM) Development � Developed by New York Metropolitan Transportation Council � Developed by New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC), the metropolitan planning organization, to meet the (NYMTC), the metropolitan planning organization, to meet the federal requirements for long-range planning. federal requirements for long-range planning. � Air quality conformity analysis � Air quality conformity analysis � Modeling impact of major infrastructure projects such as: � Modeling impact of major infrastructure projects such as: � Tappan Zee Bridge and I-287 Corridor Study � Tappan Zee Bridge and I-287 Corridor Study � Goethals Bridge Modernization DEIS � Goethals Bridge Modernization DEIS
History of BPM History of BPM � 28 counties in New York, � 28 counties in New York, New Jersey and New Jersey and Connecticut Connecticut � Model released 2002, � Model released 2002, updated 2005 updated 2005 � State-of-the-art travel � State-of-the-art travel model model � Only travel model in NY � Only travel model in NY region region
Key inputs Key inputs � Highways � Highways � Arterial streets � Arterial streets � Transit � Transit � 4,000 zones for trip origins � 4,000 zones for trip origins and destinations and destinations
Key inputs Key inputs � 2005 population and employment by zone � 2005 population and employment by zone � 2005 transit network � 2005 transit network � Tolls and fares and other travel costs � Tolls and fares and other travel costs � Travel diary survey � Travel diary survey � 11,264 households � 11,264 households � 27,369 persons � 27,369 persons � 90,764 trips � 90,764 trips
BPM structure and processes BPM structure and processes � Populates each zone with households and jobs � Populates each zone with households and jobs � Based on: � Based on: � 2005 population and employment � 2005 population and employment
BPM structure and processes BPM structure and processes � Creates daily “tours” and time period for each trip within the tour � Creates daily “tours” and time period for each trip within the tour � Purposes: � Purposes: � Time periods: � Time periods: � Work � Work � AM Peak (6am-10am) � AM Peak (6am-10am) � University � University � Midday (10am-4pm) � Midday (10am-4pm) � School � School � PM Peak (4pm-8pm) � PM Peak (4pm-8pm) � Household maintenance (errands) � Household maintenance (errands) � Night (8pm-6am) � Night (8pm-6am) � Discretionary activities (leisure) � Discretionary activities (leisure) � Work-based (meetings, etc) � Work-based (meetings, etc) � Based on: � Based on: � Household characteristics (age, income, car ownership, etc.) � Household characteristics (age, income, car ownership, etc.) � Employment levels � Employment levels � School enrollment � School enrollment � Travel diary survey � Travel diary survey
BPM structure and processes BPM structure and processes � Determines destinations for each tour � Determines destinations for each tour � Based on: � Based on: � Employment locations � Employment locations � Other destinations (shopping, etc.) � Other destinations (shopping, etc.) � Travel time, fares, congestion, tolls involved in reaching each � Travel time, fares, congestion, tolls involved in reaching each destination destination
BPM structure and processes BPM structure and processes � Determines mode for each leg of tour � Determines mode for each leg of tour � SOV � SOV � Walk to commuter rail � Walk to commuter rail � Drive to commuter rail � Drive to commuter rail � HOV2, HOV3, HOV4+ � HOV2, HOV3, HOV4+ � Taxi � Taxi � Walk to transit � Walk to transit � School bus � School bus � Drive to transit � Drive to transit � Non-motorized � Non-motorized � Based on: � Based on: � Transit service levels � Transit service levels � Fares, tolls, parking and other driving costs � Fares, tolls, parking and other driving costs � Travel diary survey � Travel diary survey
BPM structure and processes BPM structure and processes � Determines route � Determines route � Based on: � Based on: � Transit frequency � Transit frequency � Travel time � Travel time � Congestion � Congestion
BPM outputs BPM outputs � County-to-county trip flows � County-to-county trip flows � Trip purpose � Trip purpose � Time of day � Time of day � Mode � Mode � Traffic speeds and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) � Traffic speeds and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) � Air quality based on changes in vehicle volumes � Air quality based on changes in vehicle volumes � Results validated to: � Results validated to: � Ground counts of traffic volumes � Ground counts of traffic volumes � Transit ridership � Transit ridership
BPM outputs BPM outputs
BPM outputs BPM outputs � 6.3% reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in charging � 6.3% reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in charging zone zone � 7.2% increase in speeds in zone � 7.2% increase in speeds in zone � 11.3% reduction in vehicle trips entering the charging zone � 11.3% reduction in vehicle trips entering the charging zone � 6% -12% reduction in key pollutants and greenhouse gases � 6% -12% reduction in key pollutants and greenhouse gases
Recommend
More recommend
