ESC 2012 Moscow Exposure and Vulnerability Estimation from satellite and ground-based remote sensing for seismic risk assessment in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Massimiliano Pittore , M. Wieland, S. Parolai, J. Zschau GFZ Potsdam, Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning GFZ Potsdam, Centre for Early Warning
Introduction http://www.emca-gem.org Buildings Physical Probability People Social Intensity Location M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 2
Motivation http://www.emca-gem.org Cross-border scientific „Consortium for Earthquake Risk Reduction“ (COSERICA) Afghanistan - University of Kabul, Department of Geosciences, Kabul Almaty Kazakhstan - LLC Institute of Seismology, Almaty Bishkek - National Nuclear Center, Center for Acquisition and Bishkek Processing of Special Seismic Information, Almaty Baku Ankara Osh / Jalalabad Kyrgyzstan - Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences, Bishkek Dushanbe Ashgabat - Institute of Seismology, Bishkek Khorog - Int. University for Innovation Technologies, Bishkek Tehran Issyk-Ata fault - Kyrgyz Nat. University of Construction, Transportation and Architecture, Bishkek Islamabad PGA 4,5 m/s² with probability of 10% to be exceeded Tajikistan in 50 years - Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Dushanbe Turkmenistan - Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Ashgabat ID Building floor The constructive decision EMS-98 - Scientific Res. Ins. of Seismic-resistance Const., 1 Three- floor building Building with bearing brick walls В Ashgabat 1.00 11.00 12.00 with a ground floor and ferro-concrete overlappings EMS-98 Uzbekistan VA VB 2 Nine-floor building with Ferro-concrete frame with brick D VC a ground floor filling of walls and ferro-concrete VD overlappings VE VF 27.00 33.00 3 Five-floor building with a Ferro-concrete frame with brick C ground floor filling of walls and ferro-concrete overlappings 16.00 out of date highly aggregated spatially fragmented ... ... ... ... M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 3
Motivation http://www.emca-gem.org Cross-border scientific „Consortium for Earthquake Risk Reduction“ (COSERICA) Afghanistan - University of Kabul, Department of Geosciences, Kabul Almaty Kazakhstan - LLC Institute of Seismology, Almaty Bishkek - National Nuclear Center, Center for Acquisition and Bishkek Processing of Special Seismic Information, Almaty Baku Ankara Osh / Jalalabad Kyrgyzstan - Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences, Bishkek Dushanbe Ashgabat - Institute of Seismology, Bishkek Khorog - Int. University for Innovation Technologies, Bishkek Tehran Issyk-Ata fault - Kyrgyz Nat. University of Construction, Transportation Need for new approaches to estimate building and Architecture, Bishkek Islamabad PGA 4,5 m/s² with probability of 10% to be exceeded Tajikistan exposure and thus vulnerability in a rapid, in 50 years - Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Dushanbe standardized and scalable way. Turkmenistan - Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Ashgabat ID Building floor The constructive decision EMS-98 - Scientific Res. Ins. of Seismic-resistance Const., 1 Three- floor building Building with bearing brick walls В Ashgabat 1.00 11.00 12.00 with a ground floor and ferro-concrete overlappings EMS-98 Uzbekistan VA VB 2 Nine-floor building with Ferro-concrete frame with brick D VC a ground floor filling of walls and ferro-concrete VD overlappings VE VF 27.00 33.00 3 Five-floor building with a Ferro-concrete frame with brick C ground floor filling of walls and ferro-concrete overlappings 16.00 out of date highly aggregated spatially fragmented ... ... ... ... M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 4
Overview of the approach Multi-scale Exposure Estimation rapid visual survey (RVS) allows for a reasonable first assessment remote Coupling remote sensing with in-situ i maging RVS can be optimized over broad areas. in-situ Exposure / Vulnerability model Stratification (remote) Sampling (in-situ) Integration Stratification (remote) Sampling (in-situ) Integration Probabilistic Risk Framework M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 5
Analysis of medium-resolution satellite images Stage of Stratification Workflow / Results Pixels Bishkek Learning Machine Landsat 30m (R-G-B 5-4-2) Pixels → Segments → Thematic classes → Urban Structure Types M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 6
Urban Structure Type: 10 Analysis of medium-resolution satellite images Type: 3-6 storey brick, concrete, panel Age: built before 1977 Stage of Stratification Urban Structure Types Bishkek Product Overall Accuracy Cohen's Kappa Urban Structure Type: 16 Urban Structure Type: 8 MR built-up mask (1977) 88.33% 0.66 Type: industrial, commercial Type: 1-2 storey masonry, brick MR built-up mask (1994) 87.67% 0.67 Age: built before 1977 Age: built between 1994 and 2009 MR built-up mask (2009) 90.00% 0.78 MR LULC (2009) 81.00% 0.79 Next: sampling! M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 7
Urban Structure Type: 10 Analysis of medium-resolution satellite images Type: 3-6 storey brick, concrete, panel Age: built before 1977 Stage of Stratification Urban Structure Types Bishkek Product Overall Accuracy Cohen's Kappa Urban Structure Type: 16 Urban Structure Type: 8 MR built-up mask (1977) 88.33% 0.66 Type: industrial, commercial Type: 1-2 storey masonry, brick MR built-up mask (1994) 87.67% 0.67 Age: built before 1977 Age: built between 1994 and 2009 MR built-up mask (2009) 90.00% 0.78 MR LULC (2009) 81.00% 0.79 Next: sampling! M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 8
Acquisition and analysis of high-resolution omnidirectional images GFZ Mobile Mapping System Image capturing and storing unit ➢ Omnidirectional camera ➢ GPS receiver and antenna ➢ Digital compass with accelerometric sensors ➢ Customized PC ➢ Mounting system with sucking cups Omnidirectional camera Navigation unit ➢ Laptop with QGIS, streetmaps, pre- calculated sample areas and routes ➢ GPS receiver and antenna ➢ Real-time GPS-tracking Navigation unit System mounted on car M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 9
Acquisition and analysis of high-resolution omnidirectional images 360° 180° Omnidirectional image ● Fast , unbiased , dense collection of visual content In equirectangular ● No need for skilled operators, just drive it. projection ● Intuitive and efficient visual interpretation, e.g. by engineers. M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 10
Acquisition and analysis of high-resolution omnidirectional images Example: Automated height measurement from 3D Dense reconstruction 28.8 27.9 31.0 27.1 Other possible features: Set-backs, Soft-storeys, No. of openings, ... M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 11
Analysis of high-resolution satellite images Automated building footprint extraction Quickbird image (Bishkek 2010) Building location, footprint area, roof-color/-material, disaggregation of census data, etc. M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 12
Data integration and vulnerability estimation ➢ Priors from medium-resolution satellite images: VULNERABILITY ➢ Estimated building age ➢ Landuse / Landcover ➢ Information from high-resolution satellite images: ➢ Buildings footprint, location ➢ ... ➢ Information from omnidirectional images: ➢ Buildings height ➢ ... ➢ Priors and information from manual data entry: ➢ Expert knowledge ➢ Ancillary data (e.g. already existing building inventory data) M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 13
Data integration and vulnerability estimation Bayesian networks Evidences: LULC: residential - panel, concrete,frame Age: 1994-2009 Height: 29 m background image: earth.google.com EMS-98 Vulnerability Scale conditional probability table (V) M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 14
Data integration and vulnerability estimation Bayesian networks Evidences: LULC: residential - panel, concrete,frame Age: 1994-2009 Height: 29 m Posteriors: No. of storeys: 9 WHE Type: 6 background image: earth.google.com Vulnerability (EMS-98): E EMS-98 Vulnerability Scale A B C D E F conditional probability table (V) posterior probabilities M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 15
Preliminary results: inventory composition M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 16
Preliminary results: spatial disaggregation of total population Building type Est. nr. of Est. buildings population 1-2 storey masonry, brick 86842 292207 individual house, type 1,2,3 3-6 storey brick, concrete, 8469 288030 panel multi-family block 7-9 storey concrete, panel, 2271 107936 frame, monolithic block 1-2 storey brick, concrete 5583 - industrial, commercial 1-9 storey mixed built-up 9128 159466 TOTAL 112293 847639 M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 17
Preliminary results: multi-temporal change detection before 1977 Age of structure Est. nr. of Est. buildings population 1977-1994 Built before 1977 77292 579595 Built between 1977 and 16205 115976 1994 Built between 1991 and 18796 152068 2009 1994-2009 TOTAL 112293 847639 M. Pittore - ESC 2012 Moscow -August 23rd 18
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