Vulnerability Assessm ent 2 0 0 4 Luanda, 2 5 June 2 0 0 4 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p1

Vulnerability Assessm ent 2 0 0 4

Luanda, 2 5 June 2 0 0 4

Vulnerability Analysis and Food Aid W orking Group Chaired by W FP/ VAM Unit

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p2

Overview 1 . Methodology of the VA 2 0 0 4 2 . Highlights of vulnerability to food insecurity ( structural and current) 3 . Outcom es and I m plications

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I nputs for VA 2 0 0 4

FAO/ WFP CFSAM mission Provincial Vulnerability Analysis (VA) reports – descriptive interpretation in 11 provinces. Community food security survey in 11 provinces – statistical analysis of community level food security indicators.

National Overview 11 provincial reports

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p4

1 . Provincial Vulnerability Analysis Reports

• Assesses vulnerability by area and social group based
• n five elements (qualitative) :

– accessibility and population movements – agriculture – market functioning & price trends – health, nutrition & sanitation – Income & coping strategies

• An empirical combination of the above elements

yields a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) for each

• f the population groups by geographic area.
• Information obtained from government bodies and

humanitarian agencies.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p5

Moxico Moxico Moxico Moxico Moxico Moxico Moxico Moxico Moxico Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Kuando Kubango Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Lunda Sul Bie Bie Bie Bie Bie Bie Bie Bie Bie Malanje Malanje Malanje Malanje Malanje Malanje Malanje Malanje Malanje Benguela Benguela Benguela Benguela Benguela Benguela Benguela Benguela Benguela Namibe Namibe Namibe Namibe Namibe Namibe Namibe Namibe Namibe Cunene Cunene Cunene Cunene Cunene Cunene Cunene Cunene Cunene Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Sul Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Kuanza Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Uige Uige Uige Uige Uige Uige Uige Uige Uige Luanda Luanda Luanda Luanda Luanda Luanda Luanda Luanda Luanda Zaire Zaire Zaire Zaire Zaire Zaire Zaire Zaire Zaire Bengo Bengo Bengo Bengo Bengo Bengo Bengo Bengo Bengo Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Cabinda Huambo Huambo Huambo Huambo Huambo Huambo Huambo Huambo Huambo Huila Huila Huila Huila Huila Huila Huila Huila Huila Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte Lunda Norte

2 a. Com m unity Survey: sam pling com m unities

• Access and travel

lim itations

• No sam pling fram e
• A one-degree grid
• Random selecting of

cells from this grid

• Tw o villages selected by

the interview er: – on different roads, – accessible by car, and – have minimum 15 and maximum 800 households

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! Selected Communities

Selected Communities Selected Communities Selected Communities Selected Communities Selected Communities Selected Communities Selected Communities Selected Communities

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p6

2 b. Com m unity survey - them es

• Demographic structure of the community;
• Population movements & origin;
• Main economic activities & income diversification;
• Remoteness of the communities & access to services and

infrastructures;

• Type of coping mechanisms used and their frequency;
• Access to productive and household assets;
• Access to education & gender issues related to school

enrollment;

• Characteristics of the subsistence agriculture;
• Proxy indicators to estimate the impact of HIV/ Aids

Seasonal assessm ent survey ( central highlands only)

• General agricultural characteristics;
• Rainfall pattern during the crop season
• Water logging, floods and impact on crop production;

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Analytical Fram ew ork

• Triangulation of the different information

sources.

• Statistics to enrich the descriptive analysis from

the provincial reports - national tabulation with “provincial/ regional averages”.

• Statistics to compare provinces and regions
• Correct “qualitative” provincial VA outcomes

with “objective” quantitative statistics.

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Highlights of structural and current vulnerability

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Dem ographics

0 % 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 8 0 % 9 0 % 1 0 0 % H u i l a B e n g

• U

i g e B e n g u e l a K u a n z a S u l H u a m b

• K

u a n z a N

• r

t e M

• x

i c

• B

i e M a l a n j e K u a n d

• K

u b a n g

• % population

R e s id e n ts R e tu rn e e s w ith o u t h a rve s t R e tu rn e e s w ith o n e h a rve s t R e tu rn e e s w ith 2 o r m o re h a rve s ts ID P 's R e s e ttle d

• 48.4% of households residing

long time in the community; 45% are returnees

• 5.5% of rural population

composed of RET that did not cultivate last season

• most RET & REA come from
• ther parts within the province

(61.5% ) & from Luanda (23.1% )

• dependency ratio: 5.1 persons,

increasing from N to S

• 21.5% of households headed by

women

Population structure of the communities by province

• KKubango, Malanje, Bié, Moxico & KNorte - very young villages: less than 1/ 3 of

members are residents

• 87% of villages: more than 15 years. KKubango, Moxico & Bié 25, 15 and 11%
• f villages exist for only 1 or 2 years.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p10

Population m ovem ents ( last six m onths)

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 Persons Internal returnees 7,686 17,429 8,045 External returnees 15,590 279 408 Northeastern region Central region Southern region

• Central region: large internal population movements (51% to

Bie, 30% Kuanza Sul, 19% Huambo)

• Northeastern region: 60% are external returnees from Congo

RDC and Zambia

• Southern

region: relatively few movements, with internal returnees accounting for 95% of the total

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p11

Econom ic activities, agriculture, and incom e diversification

Total rural incom e Agriculture 4 3 .8 % Casual labor 1 7 .9 % Livestock 1 1 .2 % Charcoal production & firewood 8 .5 % Various business 5 .2 % Other 7 .8 %

• Agriculture: m ore im portant in the north
• Livestock: higher share in the south
• Casual labor m ainly restricted to agriculture: m ore

im portant in Huam bo ( 3 4 .1 % ) & Bié ( 3 2 % )

• “Other incom es” (7.8% ): sale of local drinks (2.6% ), sale of

honey (2.2% ), handicraft (1.2% ), palm oil extraction (1.3% ) & construction (0.7% ).

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p12

Agriculture

• 43.8% of total rural incom e
• Relatively few lim itations in access to agricultural

land, except in Huam bo, Huila & Benguela

• Access to agricultural land for tw o third (62.8% )

through fam ily property & 25.1 % by authorization

• f the soba
• The m ajority of the recently established

com m unities have been planting fruit trees during the last tw o years

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p13

The agricultural season 2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 4

• 8 8 .5 % of the

com m unities have cultivated a larger area

• f subsistence crops

com pared to last year

• The total harvest has
• nly increased in the

North (67.7% ); in the Central region 76.6% & in the Southern region 87.3% report a sm aller harvest than last year.

20 40 60 80 100 North Central Sud % of communities Cultivated larger area than last year Harvested more than last year

Central highlands - no harvest this year:

• Huambo 4 0 .3 % .
• Bié 6 .2 %
• Huila 1 8 .3 %

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p14

Season 2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 4 : Central Highlands

• Rainfall: intense, frequent, accompanied by heavy winds and

localized hailstorms

• Insufficient agricultural inputs (animal traction, fertilizer...)
• Leaching of plant nutrients on the poor sandy soils. Low

access to organic material (from animals) and chemical fertilizers (expensive & only available in major centers)

• Poor farming practices with late planting & poor weeding due

to continuous humidity of the soil and the plants

• Lack of crop rotation (maize in particular)
• Use of inappropriate varieties of maize seeds & late planting

Patterns: Results:

• I n the low lands ( nacas) , alm ost 100% of all crops w here lost
• Highlands: yields range from 0 to 2500 kg/ ha of m aize

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p15

Food production and reserves

• Northern region: cassava

dominates and households have sufficient food reserves to cover food needs until maturation of the crops. Intense crop diversification guarantees minimum income.

• Central region: the food

reserves may be depleted as early as July for the most vulnerable households.

2 4 6 8 10 12 North-East Centre South Meses

Cereals Beans Groundnut Cassava

• Southern region. Huila: cereal food reserves range between 4 and 16
• months. Farming system is based on agriculture and livestock and

guarantees a minimum income diversification. Kuando Kubango: food reserves will be depleted within three months after the harvest.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p16

Livestock

Household level

• 8 4 .9 % of the households

in Huila have minimum five goats, pigs and/ or cows

• In KNorte & KSul, around

2 0 % of households have a herd of minimum five animals

• All other provinces: 1 0 % of

the households have more than five animals. Malanje, Bié & Moxico, less than 2 %

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1-5 >5 1-5 >5 1-5 >5 Cow s Goats Pigs % of households North Central Sud

Five anim als is the m inim um sustainable num ber to allow selling during difficult tim es and to restock the herd afterw ards w ithin few years.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p17

Casual labor

• 1 7 .9 % of the total rural

income. – More important: Huambo & Bie (32% ). – Less important: Moxico & Kuando kubango (9% & 4.6% ).

• Net providers of labor:

Kuanza Sul (71% ), KNorte (50% ) & Malanje (40% ).

• Mainly laborers: provinces of

Benguela & Uige.

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 K u a n z a S u l K u a n z a N

• r

t e B i e H u i l a M a l a n j e H u a m b

• B

e n g

• B

e n g u e l a K u a n d

• K

u b a n g

• U

i g e M

• x

i c

• % of communities

Leave the village Come to the village

• Almost all work is related to agricultural production, and in some

areas there is some mining as well.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p18

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Uige Huambo Malanje Huila Bengo Kuanza Norte Benguela Kuanza Sul Moxico Kuando Kubango Bie % of children Boys enrollment Girls enrollment

Access to basic services & infrastructures

• Public transport
• Markets
• Education
• Agriculture extension services
• Health facilities & conditions
• Drinking water

Significant relation betw een rem oteness and isolation ( “lack of access”) and food insecurity.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p19

Rem oteness/ I solation

• Only 5 0 % has public transport passing nearby

– KNorte and Bengo: 5 5 -6 0 % not reached during the wet season

• Only 9 .6 % have a permanent or periodic market
• Average distance to market: 2 8 .9 km (> 50 km in Malanje, Bié)
• 7 0 .9 % have a primary school. Moxico (46.2% ) and Bié (45% )
• Minimum distance to any official health facility:

– Moxico, Malanje & Kuando Kubango: m ore than 2 5 km – Bié, Bengo, KNorte, KSul, Uige & Benguela: betw een 1 0 and 2 0 km – Huambo & Huila: less than 1 0 km

• Very few ( 1 0 .8 % ) have access to water from a protected water

source

• Only 3 2 .1 % had access to extensions services during the last year

Access problem s w ill m ake 110.000 persons ( 65% of these are food insecure) inaccessible by the hum anitarian com m unity during the w et season.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p20

Coping m echanism s

Coping strategies are short-term responses to periodic stress or sudden shocks of natural, econom ical or political hazards and they provide com m unities and individuals w ith opportunities to cope during these shocks

Sale of animals Other Occasion al labor Charcoal/ Firew ood Hunting/ Wild fruits Other Occasion al labor Charcoal/ firew ood Hunting/ Wild fruits Relative importance of coping strategies in Angola Relative importance of coping strategies in a vulnerable area

• Main issue: lack of diversification of coping mechanisms
• 84.4% of the communities increase occasional labor regularly in case
• f shock. Very few other coping mechanisms available.
• Sale of animals only important in Huila: more than 90% of

households regularly use this strategy

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p21

Use of negative coping m echanism s

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 H u a m b

• B

e n g u e l a B e n g

• K

u a n d

• K

u b a n g

• K

u a n z a N

• r

t e U i g e M a l a n j e B i e H u i l a K u a n z a S u l M

• x

i c

• % communities

Almost everyone/often Everyone/very often

• I ncludes: sale of charcoal

and firewood, removal of children from school, sale of productive assets or land.

• In Huambo, more than 60%
• f the communities have

almost every household using negative mechanism very

• ften, followed by Benguela

and Bengo.

• Charcoal and firewood

production is an important income source in Huambo estimated at 1 7 .6 % , Benguela 1 2 .3 % and Moxico 1 0 .2 % of total income.

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p22

Current health conditions & m alnutrition

• Limited quantitative information available.
• In Huambo, Bié & KNorte one of the biggest concerns is scabies.
• Anthropometric surveys indicate an improvement of the

nutritional status of the population since the previous reporting period.

Province Locality Date Populatio n group Method Sam ple size CM U5

Be ngue la Ga nda Fe v - 0 4 All pop

C lus te r W/ H

9 5 7

7 ,3 ( 5 ,2 - 1 0 ,2 ) 0 ,5 ( 0 1 ,- 1 ,8 )

1 .3 6 4 ,0 2 Be ngue la Cuba l Apr - 0 4 All pop

C lus te r W/ H

9 0 0

4 ,0 ( 2 ,4 - 6 ,4 ) 0 ,3 ( 0 ,0 - 1 ,6 )

1 ,5 4 1 ,4 2 Ca conda Ja n- 0 4 All pop

C lus te r W/ H

9 5 8

3 ,1 ( 1 ,8 - 5 ,3 ) 0 ,8 ( 0 ,1 - 2 ,3 )

1 ,0 7 3 ,0 7 Ma ta la Fe v - 0 4 Re s

C lus te r W/ H

4 .8 ( 3 .4 - 6 .1 ) 0 .2 ( 0 .0 - 0 .5 )

Ma ta la Fe v - 0 4 Re a

C lus te r W/ H

6 .7 ( 5 .1 - 8 .4 ) 0 .8 ( 0 .1 - 1 .4 )

Kua nza Sul Se le s Abr - 0 4 All pop

C lus te r W/ H

1 0 ,3 2 4 2 ,3 4 7

1 5 .6 9 3 .7 5 Global ( < - 2 SD) Severe ( < - 3 SD)

Huila Sour ce : Unicef

Results Mortality ( x/ 1 0 ,0 0 0 / day) z- Score

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p23

Results & Implications

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Relative geographic vulnerability

Vulnerability ranking Area/ provinces

Highest Central Highlands (Huambo, northern Huila, and parts of Bie) Moderate Moxico, Kuando Kubango, parts of Bie Low Malanje Lowest Bengo, Kuanza Norte, Kuanza Sul, Uige, Benguela

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p25

Population groups and vulnerability levels

I DP RET REA RES Total Food I nsecure 239,620 94,200 333,820 Highly Vulnerable 462,729 21,900 232,830 717,459 1 ,0 5 1 ,2 7 9 Moderate Vulnerable 256,087 20,200 241,351 517,638 Potentially Vulnerable 85,426 15,300 142,216 242,942 Total 1,043,862 57,400 710,597 1,811,859 I n need of food aid

Returnees: 58% Residents: 39% Resettled: 3% (Kkubango) Total reduction from last VA: 3 1 % Food I nsecure: - 35.4% High Vulnerable: - 43.3%

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p26

Population in need of food assistance by region

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 North-East Central South Nº persons

Food insecure Highly vulnerable

• Concentration in Central Region ( 7 1 .5 % ) :
• Huambo: 5 4 .6 %
• Kuanza Sul: 8 .4 %
• Bie: 5 .7 %

Total population in food need: 1 ,0 5 1 ,2 7 9 people

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p27

Relative repartition of population groups by province

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Uige Benguela Kuanza Sul Huila Kuanza Norte Bie Malanje Bengo Huambo Moxico Kuando Kubango %Food secure % Moderately vulnerable % Highly Vulnerable % Food Insecure

Vulnerability Assessment 2004 - p28

Thank you!

Questions?