Fleet Capabilities Based Assessment (CBA) ASNE DAY April 8, 2009 Howard Fireman Director, Future Concepts and Surface Ship Design Group Naval Sea Systems Command CAPT N CAPT Norbert Doerry b D Technical Director, Future Concepts and Surface Ship Design Naval Sea Systems Command March 2009 Approved for Public Release 1 Fireman
Motivation – Recent AoAs • LHA(R) and MPFF – Final acquisition alternative implemented (after delay) was not q p ( y) part of the recommended solution set from the AoA • CG(X) – Final acquisition alternative not selected over a year after the Final acquisition alternative not selected over a year after the originally scheduled completion date April 2009 Approved for Public Release 2 FIREMAN
SECNAVINST 5000.2D 2 Pass 6 Gate Process Pre ‐ AOA AOA Pre ‐ PD PD CD DD & C REQUIREMENTS ‐ design requirements ‐ DESIGN AOA = Analysis of Alternatives PD = Preliminary Design CD = Contract Design DD&C = Detail Design and Construction April 2009 Approved for Public Release 3 FIREMAN
Proposed Implementation of SECNAVINST 5000.2D PASS 1: SYSCOM LEAD JROC Approved Requirements, ICD + AOA Plan Preferred CD Solution, Risks, and Tech Dev Strategy Fleet Level CBA ** CONOPS Dev Known ICD(s) Dev CDD Dev AOA Trade-Studies Note: Fleet Level CBA conducted on a continuous basis, 1 2 3 independent of individual programs i d d t f i di id l Navy Navy Approved Selected Approved CDD, CONCEPT Alternative & ICD & CONOPS & Pre AOA Process Pre-AOA Process Approval of Approval of AOA Plan AOA Plan SDS Plan SDS Plan REFINEMENT REFINEMENT Risk Mitigation Methods / Activities Risk Management & Risk Identification Mitigation Concept Formulation Program / Set Based Design Set Based Design Response Surface Dev Response Surface Dev Design Space Exploration ** D i S E l ti ** Business SDS Plan Dev Case Analysis Feb 2009 Not Yet Approved for Public Release 4 Tech. Dev. Strategy Dev CAPT Doerry ** New Process
Current Pre-AOA Process CBA ICD National Military Functional Initial Strategy Area Analysis Area Analysis Capabilities Capabilities Strategic Planning Document Guidance Functional Contingency Planning Needs Analysis Guidance Quadrennial Defense Quadrennial Defense Functional Functional CBA ICD Solutions Review Report Analysis Functional Initial Area Analysis Capabilities D Document t Functional Needs Analysis Functional Each Capability treated Independently Each Capability treated Independently Solutions Analysis FLEET DESIGNED ONE AOA AT A TIME FLEET DESIGNED ONE AOA AT A TIME Note: Most Recent JCIDS instruction (March 2009) eliminates the terms FAA, FNA, and FSA April 2009 Approved for Public Release 5 FIREMAN
Proposed Process FLEET Level CBA FUTURE FLEET Architecture National Military CBA St Strategy t CBA ICD Functional Strategic Planning CBA Area Analysis ICD Guidance Functional Initial CBA Area Analysis Contingency Planning ICD Capabilities p Functional Functional Functional Functional Initial Initial Guidance Document Area Analysis Needs Analysis Capabilities Functional Functional Initial Quadrennial Defense Document Area Analysis Needs Analysis Capabilities Review Report Functional Functional Document Needs Analysis y Solutions Solutions Functional Functional Functional F ti l Analysis Needs Analysis Solutions Functional Analysis Solutions Functional Analysis Solutions Solutions Analysis Capabilities treated holistically Note: Most Recent JCIDS instruction (March 2009) eliminates the terms FAA, FNA, and FSA April 2009 Approved for Public Release 6 FIREMAN
CBA Time Horizons • Long Range Planning: 15 to 40 years in the future – Use methods such as Future Force Formulation – Input to 30-year shipbuilding plan – Provide Science & Technology / Discovery & Invention guidance – Recommend Modernization and Service Life Extensions (SLEP) • Mid Term Planning: FYDP to 15 years in the future – Produce ICDs to enter the Acquisition Process – Input to 30-year shipbuilding plan – Inform technology development roadmaps • Near Term Planning: within FYDP – Concentrates on the number of ships/aircraft/systems to acquire, p y q , modernize, and retire from service to meet affordability goals while best meeting Navy and Joint Force Operational Requirements. FYDP = Future Year Defense Plan > 5 to 6 years FYDP = Future Year Defense Plan -> 5 to 6 years April 2009 Approved for Public Release 7 FIREMAN
Long Range Planning • Future is hard to predict • • Analyze multiple futures Analyze multiple futures – Identify common solution elements – Identify when one has to decide on which future to prepare for • D Develop Draft ICDs for elements of proposed fleets l D ft ICD f l t f d fl t April 2009 Approved for Public Release 8 FIREMAN
Mid Term Planning • FYDP to 15 years in the future • Alternate Futures necked down to one • Analysis uses physics based models • Trade Industrial Base, Cost, Capability, and CONOPS to optimize Navy Capability • Develop ICDs to enter acquisition. • Fund work to “get ready” for g y acquisition – Risk Reduction – Technology Transition gy – Tool Development April 2009 Approved for Public Release 9 FIREMAN
Short Term Planning • Optimize fleet with the Future Year Defense Plan • Force Structure Dominated by ships and systems that alread e ist already exist • Generally dealing with determining the number of g ships/systems to acquire, modernize, and retire to produce best capability produce best capability within cost constraints. April 2009 Approved for Public Release 10 FIREMAN
Fleet Level CBA Organizational Structure Senior Navy Leadership Meets ~ every 6 months Fleet CBA OIPT Leaders of IPTs Meets ~ every 3 months Keeps three IPTs aligned Fleet CBA IIPT Knowledge Management Fleet Long Range Mid-Term Fleet Near-Term Fleet Planning IPT g Architecture IPT Architecture IPT Updates Long-Range Updates Near-Term Architecture ~ every 4 years Architecture every 4 years Architecture ~ every year Architecture every year Updates Mid-Term Updates Mid Term Architecture ~ every 2 years April 2009 Approved for Public Release 11 FIREMAN
Organizational Contributions Operational Expertise Operational Analysis Office of the Chief of Naval Operations OPNAV N81, (OPNAV) (OPNAV) Navy QDR Office Navy QDR Office Fleet Representatives Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Naval Warfare Development Command Naval War College (NWC) (NWDC) Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) y ( ) Military Sealift Command (MSC) Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) System Cost and Performance Technology Development Naval Sea Systems Command Office of Naval Research (ONR) (NAVSEA) (NAVSEA) Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) Naval Surface Warfare Center Naval Facilities Command (NAVFAC) (NSWC) Space & Naval Warfare Systems Naval Undersea Warfare Center Naval Undersea Warfare Center Command (SPAWAR) (NUWC) Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) DARPA Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) UARCS Navy Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) Navy Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) April 2009 Approved for Public Release 12 FIREMAN
Summary • A Fleet CBA provides a holistic fleet architecture to b base investment decisions i t t d i i • Three Time Horizons – Long Range – Mid Term – Near Term • Development of these architectures need to involve the intellectual capability of the entire Navy. QUESTIONS? April 2009 Approved for Public Release 13 FIREMAN
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