FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE Farm Office Team Ben Brown IS OPEN Peggy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE Farm Office Team Ben Brown IS OPEN Peggy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 15, 2023 564 likes •821 views

The OSU Extension OSU Extensions FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE Farm Office Team Ben Brown IS OPEN Peggy Hall David Marrison Mondays session will touch on Dianne Shoemaker Paycheck Protection Program, Julie Strawser exports, property

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The OSU Extension

FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE

IS OPEN

Monday’s session will touch on Paycheck Protection Program, exports, property taxes, BWC, macro economy, legal impacts, and dairy

Come to us with your questions, concerns, and topics of interest. Each office hour will include a short update and lead into a question and answer time on additional topics of interest.

OSU Extension’s Farm Office Team

Ben Brown Peggy Hall David Marrison Dianne Shoemaker Julie Strawser Barry Ward

April 13, 2020

8:00 to 9:30 p.m. Pre-register at: go.osu.edu/farmofficelive

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Farm Office Team

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➢ USDA and its Federal partners have programs that can be used to provide immediate and long-term assistance to rural communities affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. ➢ This resource matrix organizes funding opportunities identified in the CARES Act and other federal resources that can help support rural America. For more information on the immediate actions USDA is taking to respond to COVID-19, visit usda.gov/coronavirus. ➢ Access Resource Guide at: https://www.rd.usda.gov/sites/default/files/USDA_COVID- 19_Fed_Rural_Resource_Guide.pdf

COVID-19 Federal Resource Guide

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COVID-10 Federal Resource Guide

https://www.rd.usda.gov/sites/default/files/USD A_COVID-19_Fed_Rural_Resource_Guide.pdf

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What has happened over the past week with the Paycheck Protection Program?

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What impact is COVID-19 having on the export markets?

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Question: COVID-19’s impact on US exports?

77.7 71.4 72.8

  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Million Bushels

Weekly U.S Corn Export Net Sales

2018/19 2019/2020 5-Year Average Cheap Grain has spurred interest in US Corn. ❖ While low US commodity prices have spurred interest in international buyers- currency exchanges are burdensome. ❖ Especially soybean-sales of US soybeans are currently 200 million bushels behind the pace needed to reach USDA.

Source: Foreign Agriculture Service

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 $10.00

12/12/2019 1/12/2020 2/12/2020 3/12/2020

Brazilian Soybeans (BRL/Bu.) Toledo Ohio Soybean (USD/Bu.)

Brazilian and Ohio Soybean Prices

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Question: COVID-19’s impact on US exports?

1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500 6,500 7,500 8,500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Beef 2020 Pork 2020 Chicken US Meet Exports 2020 Forecasts Million Pounds (CWE/RTC)

United State Export Forecast for Beef, Pork and Poultry

Beef Chicken Pork

  • 4%

+6%

  • 2%

❖ In times of crisis- demand for animal proteins weaken (beef & pork) while grain proteins strengthen (wheat & rice). ❖ Less world travel. ❖ Less food service. ❖ African Swine Fever isn’t talked about much. China still needs protein and prefers pork. ❖ Question: will we see COVID-19 emerge in South America when they shift to winter?

Source: Foreign Agriculture Service

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Will Ohio counties delay property tax payments?

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The shelves are bare and meat prices are dropping. Why?

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The shelves are empty, and cattle prices are down. What gives??

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 USD/ cwt

Choice Beef Cutout and Primal Values January 2, 2020- April 10, 2020

Cutout Rib Chuck Round Loin Brisket Plate Flank

Major Sporting Events Cancelled March 12, 2020

Composite Choice Values (600-900) March 12th- $206.01 March 23rd- $257.32 April 10th- $223.93 Change March 12- April 10: Cutout: +8% Primal Breakdown Chuck: +36% Round: +40% Rib: -17% Loin: -7% Brisket: -16% Plate: -32% Flank: -14%

Data Source: USDA- AMS

  • 1. Decreased Aggregate Beef Demand (Retail ≠ Food Service) 2. Bottlenecks at Packer/Processor Level
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Pork Cutout: It is time to bring HOME the bacon.

Composite Values March 12th- $69.19 March 25th- $79.03 April 10th- $52.85 Change March 12- April 10: Cutout: -24% Primal Breakdown Loin: +22% Butt: -43% Picnic: -43% Rib: -27% Ham: -34% Belly: -56%

Data Source: USDA- AMS

$20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180

USD/ Hundredweight

Pork Cutout and Primal Values January 2, 2020- April 10, 2020

Cutout Loin Butt Picnic Rib Ham Belly Major Sporting Events Cancelled March 12, 2020

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Is it time for another dairy farm buyout program?

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$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

AllMilk MW-C3 Support

Price driven by Dairy Support Price

US Dairy support price, Class 3, and All Milk price: 1961 - 2011

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$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

AllMilk MW-C3 Support

Price driven by Dairy Support Price

US Dairy support price, Class 3, and All Milk price: 1961 - 2011

Dairy Stabilization Act / Dairy Herd Buyout

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$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

AllMilk MW-C3 Support

Price driven by Dairy Support Price

US Dairy support price, Class 3, and All Milk price: 1961 - 2011

Price support flatlined Dairy Stabilization Act / DH Buyout

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How do we pay for all the bail-outs?

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How do we pay for Stimulus Bills?

$0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 2002-12-18 2003-12-18 2004-12-18 2005-12-18 2006-12-18 2007-12-18 2008-12-18 2009-12-18 2010-12-18 2011-12-18 2012-12-18 2013-12-18 2014-12-18 2015-12-18 2016-12-18 2017-12-18 2018-12-18 2019-12-18 Trillion Dollars

US Federal Reserve Finanical Assets December 18, 2002-April 8, 2020

  • 1600
  • 1400
  • 1200
  • 1000
  • 800
  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Billion Dollars

US Annual Federal Deficit

  • St. Louis Federal Reserve

Estimate- $3.8 trillion in 2020

  • 1. Cut Spending- (Sequestration) Unpopular
  • 2. Raise Taxes- Unpopular
  • 3. Increase GDP faster than debt- can’t agree.

Our Economy is 70% consumer driven- so you want to have money in people's hand and have businesses running to recover. Markets get jittery when central banks start reducing their balance sheets.

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I heard of a BWC dividend?

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➢In late March, BWC told employers they could defer their monthly premium installment payments for March, April, and May until June 1. ➢Announced on April 10 of sending $1.6 billion of dividends back to Ohio employers. Equals 100% of premiums paid in policy year 2018. Checks mailed later this month. ➢Check out FAQ at: https://www.bwc.ohio.gov/downloads/blankpdf/COVID-19- BWCFAQs.pdf

Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation

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What are some potential legal impacts of COVID-19?

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Questions?

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  • Farm Office Website

– https://farmoffice.osu.edu/

  • AG Madness

– http://go.osu.edu/agmadness

  • KX COVID-19 Hub (Knowledge Exchange)

– http://kx.osu.edu/covid-19

  • OSU AG Crisis Website

– http://go.osu.edu/agcrisis

  • Ohio Dairy Industry Resources Center

– https://dairy.osu.edu/

For More Information

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  • Barry Ward

– 614.688.3959 or ward.8@osu.edu

  • Peggy Hall

– 937.645.3123 or hall.673@osu.edu

  • Ben Brown

– 614.688.8686 or brown.6888@osu.edu

  • Dianne Shoemaker

– 330.533.5538 or shoemaker.3@osu.edu

  • David Marrison

– 740.622.2265 or marrison.2@osu.edu

  • Julie Strawser

– 614.292.2433 or strawser.35@osu.edu

Contact Information

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The OSU Extension

FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE

WILL BE OPEN AGAIN

April 20, 2020 8:00 to 9:30 p.m. Register at: https://go.osu.edu/farmofficelive