Extreme drought drought is increasing . flooding in many regions. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Extreme drought drought is increasing . flooding in many regions. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Impacts of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change Observed Observed Sea level is rising & Sea-surface Glaciers and permafrost are melting temperatures are warming Arctic sea ice is melting Hurricanes have changed in


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SLIDE 1

Impacts of Climate Change Observed

Sea level is rising & Sea-surface

temperatures are warming

Seawater is becoming more acidic Seawater is becoming more acidic. Heavier rainfall cause flooding in

many regions

Extreme drought is increasing

Impacts of Climate Change Observed

Glaciers and permafrost are melting Arctic sea ice is melting Hurricanes have changed in frequency

Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength.

Heat waves more frequent. Warmer temperatures affect human

health

EKosYsTemS are changing

Climate change defined

Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region weather that a given region

  • experiences. Average weather may

include average temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. Some evident Some evident Of Climate Change

During the 20th century, sea level rose

about 15 cm (6 inches) due to melting glacier ice and expansion of warmer Sea level is rising. glacier ice and expansion of warmer

  • seawater. Models predict that sea level

may rise as much as 59 cm (23 inches) during the 21st Century, threatening coastal communities, wetlands, and coral reefs.

Rise in sea level

Many residents of low lying nations

already had to evacuate their homes because of rising seas because of rising seas

The maps of the world will have to be

redrawn Arctic sea ice is melting. The summer thickness of sea ice is about half The summer thickness of sea ice is about half

  • f what it was in 1950. Melting ice may lead to

changes in ocean circulation. Melting ice speeds up warming of the Arctic because water absorbs more heat than ice.

Sea-surface temperatures are warming.

Warmer waters in the shallow oceans have contributed to the death of about a t f th ld' l f i th quarter of the world's coral reefs in the last few decades. Many of the coral animals died after weakened by coral bleaching, a process tied directly to warmed waters.

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SLIDE 2

Seawater is becoming more acidic.

Carbon dioxide dissolving into the oceans, is

making seawater more acidic. There could be l f d h l f impacts on coral reefs and other marine life.

Heavier rainfall cause

flooding in many regions. Warmer temperatures have led to more intense rainfall events in some areas. This can cause flooding. Extreme drought

drought is increasing.

Higher temperatures cause a higher rate

  • f evaporation and more drought in some

f th ld A th t areas of the world. Areas that are currently prone to drought are expected to become even drier over the next century.

Ecosystems are changing.

As temperatures warm, species may either migrate to a cooler, more suitable habitat or die. Species that are particularly vulnerable include Species that are particularly vulnerable include endangered species, coral reefs, and polar

  • animals. Warming has also caused changes in the

timing of spring events and the length of the growing season.

Hurricanes have changed in

duration, intensity & frequency.

There is evidence that the number of intense hurricanes has increased in the Atlantic since

  • 1970. This may also be true for tropical cyclones

y p y in other parts of the world. Scientists continue to study whether climate is the cause. Scientific studies are conforming that warmer water in the top layer of he ocean can drive more convection energy to fuel more powerful hurricanes.

Heat waves more frequent.

It is likely that heat waves have become more common in more areas of the world.

Warmer temperatures affect

human health.

There has been an increase in heat-related deaths, some changes in the ranges of animals that carry disease like mosquitoes and an that carry disease like mosquitoes, and an increase in the length of the pollen season.

Increase in diseases

Vectors like algae, mosquitoes, ticks, or other

germ carrying life forms have started to show up in new areas and cover a wider range.

Increased warmth have caused them to

migrate to higher altitudes.

Some 30 so-called new diseases have

emerged over the last 20-30 years. And some

  • ld diseases that had been under control are

now surging again

Now let’s discuss the f th h cause of these changes

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SLIDE 3

Scientists around the world agree It is

Global Warming Global Warming defined

Global warming is the increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid- 20th century, and its projected continuation.

On Earth, the major greenhouse gases are

Water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of

the greenhouse effect (not including clouds);

  • Carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent;

Methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; Methane (CH4), which causes 4 9 percent; And ozone, which causes 3–7 percent. Other greenhouse gases include, but are not limited

to, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydro fluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons and chlorofluorocarbons.

Relation between Global Warming & Greenhouse Effect

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid- twentieth century is very likely due to the observed twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations" via an enhanced greenhouse effect.

What is Greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself due to the same gases, and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to all sides, including downward to the Earth’s surface. Thus greenhouse gases trap heat within the surface-troposphere system. This is called the greenhouse effect

A thought to Pause…… Deforestation

We are witnessing an unprecedented and massive

collision between our civilization and the Earth.

And most of it is increase in cities This population rise puts pressure on vulnerable This population rise puts pressure on vulnerable

areas like forests for all our requirements (food, energy, etc)

The way we treat our forests is a political issue Much of forest destruction comes from burning.

(almost 30% of co2 released in atmosphere each year)

Important Note

During the 21st century, various During the 21st century, various computer models predict that Earth’s average temperature will rise between 1.8 and 4.0° Celsius (3.2° and 7.2° F).

A study by I PCC: What happens when world temperature rises by…. 1 DEGREE

* Shrinking glaciers threaten water for 50 million people * Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions * At least 300,000 people each year die from malaria, malnutrition and

  • ther climate-related diseases

* Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes * Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes * 80 percent bleaching of coral reefs, e.g. Great Barrier Reef 2 DEGREES * 5-10 percent decline in crop yield in tropical Africa * 40-60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa * Up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding * 15-40 percent of species face extinction (one estimate) * High risk of extinction of Arctic species, e.g. polar bear * Potential for Greenland ice sheet to start to melt irreversibly, committing world to 7 metre sea level rise

A study by I PCC: What happens when world temperature rises by….

3 DEGREES * In Southern Europe, serious droughts once every 10 years * 1-4 billion more people suffer water shortages * Some 150-550 additional millions at risk of hunger * 1-3 million more people die from malnutrition * Onset of Amazon forest collapse (some models only) * Rising risk of collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet * Rising risk of collapse of Atlantic Conveyor of warm water * Rising risk of abrupt changes to the monsoon

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SLIDE 4

A study by I PCC: What happens when world temperature rises by…. 4 DEGREES * Agricultural yields decline by 15-35 percent in Africa * Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa * Loss of around half Arctic tundra 5 DEGREES 5 DEGREES * Possible disappearance of large glaciers in Himalayas, affecting

  • ne-quarter of China's population, many in India

* Continued increase in ocean acidity seriously disrupting marine ecosystems and possibly fish stocks * Sea level rise threatens small islands, coastal areas such as Florida and major cities such as New York, London, and Tokyo

The World unites

Governments around the world agreed

during the 1992 Rio Earth Summit on a United Nations Framework Convection United Nations Framework Convection

  • n Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Leading to the birth of Kyoto Protocol

Adoption of Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the 3rd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Kyoto Japan in December 1997 Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997. ♦ The Protocol defines quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for Annex I Parties.

GHGs defined by the Kyoto Protocol

Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4),

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Nitrous oxide (N2O), HFCs, PFCs, SF6.

GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS

Carbon dioxide-01 Methane-21 Nitrous Oxide-310 HFC 23-11700 CF 4-6500 SF 6- 23900

Interesting equations

Old habits Predictable Old habits Dramatically Altered + Old technology = consequence + New technology = e ed consequence

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SLIDE 5

Green means Green?

We think green means green. This is a time period where environmental improvement is going to lead towards profitability and green may mean GOLD.

WHAT IS CDM?

  • CDM is a project based market mechanism
  • CDM works between those countries who have agreed GHG

emissions reduction targets ( Annex-1 countries under UNFCCC) and those who have not (bulk of developing countries e.g. Bhutan, India China etc ) India, China etc.)

  • Annex I Parties which have emission caps, assist non-Annex I

Parties which don’t have emission caps, to implement project activities to reduce GHG emissions (or remove by sinks), and credits will be issued based on emission reductions (or removals by sinks) achieved by the project activities.

  • CDM is a mechanism through which industrialised countries

(European countries, Japan etc.) can finance mitigation projects in developing countries contributing to their sustainable development.

WHAT IS CDM?

  • CDM is a mechanism through which industrialised countries

(European countries, Japan etc.) can finance mitigation projects in developing countries contributing to their sustainable development

  • CDM is the only KP mechanism for the developing world which

encourages cleaner development

  • CDM brings infusion of investment and technology
  • CDM provides the developing countries an opportunity to adopt

cleaner technologies and be paid for emission reductions

WHAT IS CDM-Clarifications

☞A Party where CDM project is implemented, is called a host Party. ☞The credit from the CDM is called certified emission reduction (CER). [CDM M&P , p26 para1(b)] ☞Reductions in emissions shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity [KP Art 12 para5(c)] absence of the certified project activity. [KP Art.12 para5(c)] ☞ Annex I Parties can use CERs to contribute to compliance of their quantified GHG emissions reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol. [KP Art.12 para3(b)] ☞As a result, the total amount of emission cap of Annex I Parties will increase. ☞ The CDM will issue credits before the 1st commitment period. ☞CERs issued based on emission reductions during the period from the year 2000 up to 2007 can be used to assist in achieving compliance of Annex I parties in the 1st commitment period. [KP Art.12 para10]

KP Criteria for CDM

  • Assist sponsor in meeting with their part of their emission

reduction commitment

  • Comply with host country criteria for sustainable development
  • Voluntary participation of parties involved
  • Voluntary participation of parties involved
  • Project results in real, measurable and long term benefits in

terms of climate change mitigation, and

  • The reductions must be additional to any that would have
  • ccurred without the project
  • Funding must be additional to Official Developmental Assistance

(ODA)-ODA may be used for capacity building, PDD development , but not for project investment and / or CER purchase.

CDM Criteria-Other

  • Use of approved Baseline and monitoring methodologies
  • Baseline shall be established on a project-specific basis, in a

transparent manner taking into account relevant national / sectoral policies and circumstances

  • Emission reductions as result of production level decreases or

close of business are not permitted

  • Crediting period has two options-Fixed period of 10years and

Renewable crediting period of 7years with option of two renewable (Maximum 21 years)-Revalidation by DOE for renewal

  • Selected Crediting period shall be shorter than expected
  • perational lifetime of the project.
  • Start of crediting period shall be after the date of registration of

project.

CDM Criteria-Other

  • Project activity start date has to be after 1st January, 2000
  • Provision for monitoring, verification and reporting shall be in

accordance with the modalities described in CDM M&P

  • Documentation on the analysis of the environmental impacts of the

y p project activity, including transboundary impacts, shall be submitted, and if those impacts considered significant by PP of host party, an environmental impact assessment as required by the host party shall be carried out.

  • Comments by Local Stakeholders shall be invited, a summary of these

provided and how account was taken of any comments received shall be indicated

  • Parties, stakeholders and UNFCCC accredited NGOs shall have been

invited to comment on the validation requirements for minimum of 30 days-PDD to be web-hosted publicly.

CDM –Other Stakeholders

  • DNA: Designated National Authorities
  • UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
  • EB:

Executive Board of UNFCCC DOE: Designated Operational Entities

  • DOE:

Designated Operational Entities

  • CDM Project Participants: Parties (national governments) or private

and/or public entities that take decisions on the allocations of CERs

How Annex-1 countries meet Emission reduction targets

♦Annex I Parties can trade following types of Kyoto Protocol units. ☞Assigned amount unit (AAU) Total amount of AAUs of an Annex I Party is calculated from its base year emissions and emission reduction target. It is international emission trading of Assigned amount units ☞Removal unit (RMU) Total amount of RMU of an Annex I Party is calculated from net removal of GHGs by afforestation and reforestation (A/R) activities and additional activities related to GHG removals by sinks ☞Emission reduction unit (ERU) from JI ☞Certified emission reduction (CER) from the CDM ☞Temporary CER (tCER)and long-term CER (lCER) tCER and lCER are issued from A/R project activities under the CDM.

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SLIDE 6

How Annex-1 countries meet Emission reduction targets

♦Minimum trading unit is 1t-CO2 equivalent.

♦GHG emission cap of an Annex I Party at the end of the 1st commitment period is as follows: E i i f A I P t AAU +RMU + Emission cap of Annex I Party =AAUs +RMUs + Acquired credits fromJI and CDM (ERUs+CERs+tCERs+lCERs) + / -Acquired and transferred KP units by International Emissions Trading

1 CER= 1ERU= 1AAU= 1 Tonne CO2 equivalents

CDM PROJECT ACTIVITY CYCLE

(1) Planning a CDM project activity CDM project participants (PPs) plan a CDM project activity. There are several conditions in order to be registered as a CDM project activity, and PPs should consider those conditions from a planning stage. (2) Preparing the project design document (PDD) Validation PPs prepare the project design document (PDD) for a CDM project activity There is the standard format for the PDD, and PPs must fill in all the contents as necessary considering the most current format.

CDM PROJECT ACTIVITY CYCLE

(3) Getting approval from each Party involved PPs shall get written approvals of voluntary participation from the DNA of each Party involved, including host Party ☞The written approval from host Party should include confirmation by the h t P t th t j t ti it i t it i hi i t i bl host Party that a project activity assists it in achieving sustainable

  • development. [CDM M&P

, p35 para40(a)] ☞A Party involved is a Party that provides a written approval. [PDD guidelines ver4, p10] ☞The registration of a project activity can take place without an Annex I Party being involved at the stage of registration. [EB18 Rep, p8 para57] ☞The details of approval procedure is up to each Party. ♦PPs may get written approvals subsequently but they must get written approvals before a request for registration

CDM PROJECT ACTIVITY CYCLE

(4) Validation Validation is the process of independent evaluation of a project activity against the requirements of the CDM on the basis of the PDD. [CDM M&P , p34 para35] ☞Validation is carried out by a designated operational entity (DOE) ☞Validation is carried out by a designated operational entity (DOE) ☞There is a formal procedure for validation. (5) Registration Registration is the formal acceptance of a validated project as a CDM project activity. [CDM M&P , p34 para36] ☞Registration is done by the CDM executive board (EB). ☞There is a formal procedure for request for registration. ☞PPs shall pay registration fee at registration stage.

CDM PROJECT ACTIVITY CYCLE

(6) Monitoring a CDM project activity PPs collect and archive all relevant data necessary for calculating GHG emission reductions by a CDM project activity, in accordance with the monitoring plan written in the PDD. (7) Verification and Certification Verification is the periodic independent review and ex post determination of the monitored GHG emission reductions. [CDM M&P , p39 para61] Verification is carried out by a designated operational entity (DOE). ☞There is a formal procedure for verification. ♦Certification is the written assurance by a DOE that a project activity achieved the reductions in GHG emissions as verified. [CDM M&P , p39 para61] ☞Certification is also done by a DOE

CDM PROJECT ACTIVITY CYCLE

(8) I ssuance of CERs ♦The EB will issue certified emission reductions (CERs) equal to the verified amount of GHG emission reductions. [CDM M&P , p40 para64] ☞There is a formal procedure for issuance of CERs. ☞The issuance of CERs, in accordance with the distribution agreement, shall be effected

  • nly when the share of proceeds to cover administrative expenses (SOP-Admin) of the

CDM has been received. ☞ Among issued CERs, 2% of those will be deducted for the share of proceeds to assist developing Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation (SOP-Adaptation). (9) Distribution of CERs CERs will be distributed among PPs. ☞The decision on the distribution of CERs from a CDM project activity shall exclusively be taken by PPs. [PDD guidelines ver4, p11]

HOST COUNTRY APPROVAL

The host country should have appointed National CDM Authority (NCA) and the process should ensure:

  • Project Concept Note (PCN) and Project Design Document (PDD)

should be evaluated considering consistency with international should be evaluated considering consistency with international best practices. In case the documentation is not satisfactory, the clarifications can be asked from Project participants.

  • Project should contribute to the sustainable development of the

host country and must meet the performance criteria of its sustainable development parameters

  • It should have defined interim approval criteria
  • It should support all eligible projects

CDM Time Frame (Indicative)

  • 1. PCN & PDD PREPARATION (Including Baseline methodology and

monitoring plan) may take about 2 months

  • 2. Approval by DNA may take about 2 months

3 V lid ti P t k b t 2 th

  • 3. Validation Process may take about 2 months.
  • 4. Registration by EB may take 2 to 3 months depending on the scale of

project.

  • 5. Project implementation may depend on the PPs
  • 6. Monitoring may be continuous process after the implementation
  • 7. Certification & Periodic verification may take place after a year and may

take place about 2 months Typically a project may get registered in about 8 to 12 months.

Current Status of CDM projects as on today

Registered

1382

CER’s issuances

962 CER’s (tons CO2) 25 20 39 060

CER’s (tons CO2)

25,20,39,060

Indian Projects Regd.

392 (Highest in world)

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SLIDE 7

Case Study: Power generation from hot waste gases (Steel Manufacturing Process)

  • Power generation:

10 MW

  • Investment:

45 Cr

  • Emission Factor:

0.85 t of CO2/MW

  • Availability:

90% for 350 days

  • Annual Power:

10X24X350X.9= 75600MW

  • GHG Emission Reduction:

75600X0.85= 64260

  • Market Rate:

$ 20 /t of CO2 or CER

  • CDM benefits:

5.14 Cr/Yr