Exit Checks data so far? Nicky Rogers, Office for National - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How have we used Home Office Exit Checks data so far?

Nicky Rogers, Office for National Statistics 19 October 2018

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Presentation outline

• Non-EU international students – what do they do at the end of

their studies?

• Non-EU migration for work and family reasons – what do Exit

Checks data tell us?

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The Student Migration Issue (non-EU)

• International students contribute around a quarter of total immigration to the

UK

• The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is used to estimate migration flows
• In the year ending March 2017- total immigration for study was 139,000 and

emigration of former students was 59,000, leaving a “gap” of 80,000

50 100 150 200 250 300 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p Long-Term International Migration Flows (thousands) Year Inflow for formal study Inflow for study (confidence interval bounds)

Measures to improve compliance in Tier 4 route from 2010

• nwards

Source: International Passenger Survey

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What we now know from Exit Checks data

• Recent publications include:

“What’s happening with international student migration?” – ONS “International student migration update”- ONS “Third report on statistics being collected under the exit checks programme”- Home Office

• ONS’ analysis of Home Office Exit Checks data revealed that majority (90%) of non-EU international

students either depart the UK before their visa expires, or extend their leave to remain

• Our analysis suggests the IPS is underestimating long-term non-EU student emigration figures

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What our initial analysis of Exit Checks data gave us…

• A better understanding of how international students

contribute to net migration

• BUT not sufficient evidence to suggest findings affect TOTAL

net migration figures

• Only part of the picture…

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What we did next – work and family migration (non- EU)

Improve our assumptions and methods - do these hold for other types of migrants? ✓ Visa length is a proxy for length of stay

✓ Explore family visas in more detail ✓ First arrival after departure is an indicator of length of time away

Develop methods to identify long-term immigrants

• n study, work, family-related and other visas

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Visa Length as a proxy of length of stay

Tested by calculating revised length of stay using duration from first recorded arrival date and last departure date (when available)

• Arr. Dep. Arr. Dep.
• Arr. Dep.

First arrival Last departure

But it doesn’t tell us about an individual’s travel pattern in between these two points in time….

VALID VISA PERIOD

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Length of stay as a proportion of visa length

Source: ONS analysis of Home Office administrative data. Cohort with visas expiring between April 2015 and April 2016 8

Average number of visits and average length of visit

Visa Length Average number

• f visits

Average length of visit (days) Less than 1 year 2.0 75.8 1 to 2 years 3.9 83.8 2 to 3 years 6.6 80.1 3 to 4 years 8.5 82.6 4+ years 8.7 115.6

Non-EU migrants often make multiple journeys to and from the UK. The shorter the visa, the fewer the number of visits

Source: ONS analysis of Home Office administrative data. Cohort with visas expiring April 2017 and April 2018.

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Non-EU migrants often make multiple journeys to and from the UK

Total number journeys away from UK Number of journeys of 90 days or more Percentage of journeys of 90 days or more 1,491,000 197,000 13%

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Source: ONS analysis of Home Office administrative data. Cohort with visas expiring April 2017 and April 2018.

Comparing data sources (2016/17)

Source: ONS analysis of Home Office administrative data and International Passenger Survey (IPS) data. Cohort with visas expiring 2016 and 2017

Important points to note:

• Data sources are not capturing the same information and are not used for the same

purpose.

• Differences due to type of data collected, how the data are collected, data quality of

the two sources, assumptions made to process these data.

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Using Home Office administrative data to understand international migration– what we learnt

• People’s lives are complex – migration

patterns are changing as migrants move more frequently (circular migration)

• These movements do not conform neatly to our

traditional statistical definitions of migration

• No single source of data reflects this
• complexity. There is more work to do

integrating data sources to better understand migration patterns

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If you want to read more about this…

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommun ity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/artic les/reportonthecomplexityandqualityofinternationalmi grationstatistics/july2018 Or search for: Report on international migration data sources, ONS July 2018

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What’s next with Home Office administrative data?

• Continue our collaboration with Home Office experts

to better understand the data

• Develop methods to identify, classify and analyse

different types of international migrants

• Further work looking at circular migration
• Linkage to other sources to provide international

migration flows (non-EU and EU)

• Link HESA data - emigration of former students by LA
• Link to tax and benefit data – ‘signs of activity’ and impact
• n economy

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