EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION IN 2050 - Integration of large - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION IN 2050 - Integration of large scale renewables g g Infraday, Berlin 10 October 2009 Based on study project 2050 - Jonas Egerer, et al. Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management Agenda 1.

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SLIDE 1

EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION IN 2050 - Integration of large scale renewables g g

Infraday, Berlin

10 October 2009

Based on study project 2050 - Jonas Egerer, et al. Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management

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SLIDE 2

Agenda

  • 1. Introduction and Background
  • 2. Approach

3 Results

  • 3. Results

a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia

  • 4. Conclusion
  • 5. Literature
  • 2 -
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SLIDE 3

Background

  • DLR: Trans-CSP (2006)

Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) from MENA countries using a HVDC grid is economically

  • DLR: Characterisation

g g y feasible Analysis of solar electricity export potentials of

  • f Solar Electricity

Import Corridors from MENA to Europe (2009) MENA countries and possible import corridors to EU27+.

  • 3 -
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SLIDE 4

Grand Solar Plan (U.S.)

  • Single source analysis (solar)
  • Nationwide integration by new HVDC overlay grid of 500 000km
  • Nationwide integration by new HVDC overlay grid of 500,000km
  • No integration of wind, biomass, etc.

Source: Zweibel et al. 2009

  • 4 -
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SLIDE 5

Integrating 200,000 MW of RES into the US power grid

  • Regional approach
  • No coast to coast transmission expansion
  • No coast to coast transmission expansion
  • Including wind, solar and biomass
  • 5 -

Source: Krapels et al. 2009

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SLIDE 6

Desertec: Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe

  • EU wide integration for CSP
  • No evaluation of interaction for different large scale renewable energy sources in

p

  • No evaluation of interaction for different large scale renewable energy sources in

the European electricity grid

Source: Trieb et al 2009

  • 6 -

Source: Trieb et al. 2009

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SLIDE 7

Background

  • DLR: Trans-CSP (2006)

Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) from MENA countries using a HVDC grid is economically

  • DLR: Characterisation

g g y feasible Analysis of solar electricity export potentials of

  • f Solar Electricity

Import Corridors from MENA to Europe (2009) MENA countries and possible import corridors to EU27+.

Challenge: Integrated economic engineering approach

Maximizing total welfare for EU30+ with a DC load flow model

  • Renewable Energy:
  • Engineering:

Interaction of LS hydro, wind and solar power Endogenous economic assessing of HVDC

  • 7 -
  • Engineering:

Endogenous economic assessing of HVDC integration for MENA CSP generation to EU30+

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SLIDE 8

Findings

  • What could the process of CSP integration look like?
  • Expansion path of HVDC transmission

Expansion path of HVDC transmission

  • Supplied markets mainly in southern Europe and profitability of CSP in 2030
  • Regions with high shares of wind or hydro power are not supplied
  • Does a stronger integration of the Scandinavian market change the results?

Balancing mechanism of reservoirs combined with fluctuating wind power

  • Balancing mechanism of reservoirs combined with fluctuating wind power
  • Price shifts (Scandinavia up, continental Europe and UK down)
  • Lower electricity prices influence profitability of CSP integration
  • 8 -
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Agenda

  • 1. Introduction and Background
  • 2. Approach

3 Results

  • 3. Results

a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia

  • 4. Conclusion
  • 5. Literature
  • 9 -
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Original ELMOD

  • Model of the Western / Central European UCTE network with 2120 nodes and

3243 lines 3243 lines

  • 10 -
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Adjusted ELMOD

  • Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines
  • 105 demand and generation nodes
  • Simplified AC grid
  • Reference year with 24 states
  • Reference year with 24 states

 Season  Daytime Daytime  Demand  Wind generation

  • Seasonal storage (reservoirs)
  • Objective: Welfare maximization

for the entire system

  • 11 -
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Adjusted ELMOD

  • Demand increase to 4.200 TWh/yr in 2050
  • Gradual decrease of fossil fuels in the electricity sector

due to increasing generation capacities of RES

  • Exogenous CSP generation expansion

g g

  • CO2-price 2050: 100 €/t-CO2
  • Escalation rates fuel prices:
  • Oil and gas: 2.5 %/yr

C l 1 0 %/

  • Coal:

1.0 %/yr

  • 12 -
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Endogenous HVDC expansion from MENA

  • Three export nodes in the MENA region (Morocco, Tunisia and Middle East)
  • Possible HVDC connection to 30 demand centers in the EU30+
  • Line costs according DLR cost-distance images (DLR 2009) - 4GW cables

 Model endogenously obtains the optimal HVDC connections for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050

Evaluation of the HVDC expansion path for CSP integration.

  • 13 -
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SLIDE 14

Agenda

  • 1. Introduction and Background
  • 2. Approach

3 Results

  • 3. Results

a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia

  • 4. Conclusion
  • 5. Literature
  • 14 -
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SLIDE 15

HVDC Expansion for CSP integration

  • Expansion based on

welfare maximization:  Electricity prices  Transmission costs  Grid congestions D d  Demand

  • CSP profitable in 2030

(rising electricity prices) (rising electricity prices)

  • Calculated

transmission costs

2020 2030 2040 2050 Morocco 1 1.9GW 2 7.8GW 5 18.5GW 9 32.7GW

  • f about 1 cent/kWh
  • Additional welfare gains
  • 15 -

Tunisia 1 1.4GW 4 5.7GW 4 13.4GW 6 23.6GW Middle East 1 3.5GW 4 14.4GW 9 33.9GW 15 57.5GW

for consumers

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Influence of Scandinavia

  • Evaluation of the integration of the Scandinavian market and continental Europe/

the UK

  • Additional exogenous HVDC connections:

Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs

  • Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs
  • Balancing of wind power
  • Shift in electricity prices

y p

Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP?

  • 16 -

Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP?

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Influence of Scandinavia

  • Expanded inter-connection of the markets shifts prices
  • Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kWh
  • Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kWh
  • Price decrease for rest of Europe 0.5 - 1.0 cent/kWh

Price difference through better market integration:

  • No influence on HVDC corridors before 2050

Northern zones

  • CSP profitability delayed due to lower prices

also in southern Europe

Southern zones

  • 2,0 -1,0

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 [cent/kWh]

Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration

  • 17 -

Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration.

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Agenda

  • 1. Introduction and Background
  • 2. Approach

3 Results

  • 3. Results

a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia

  • 4. Conclusion
  • 5. Literature
  • 18 -
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SLIDE 19

Conclusion

  • Transmission
  • HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe)

HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe)

  • Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP avert

integration in CSP supply

  • Profitability
  • Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO2 prices)
  • Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market
  • 19 -
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SLIDE 20

Conclusion

  • 20 -
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SLIDE 21

Conclusion

  • Transmission
  • HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe)

HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe)

  • Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP avert

integration in CSP supply

  • Profitability
  • Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO2 prices)
  • Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market
  • Possible issues
  • Possible issues
  • Institutional aspects for the MENA region
  • Regulatory framework for transmission investments
  • Opposition for integration of Scandinavian markets (distribution of surpluses)
  • N-1 criteria / back-up costs and import dependency
  • 21 -
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Agenda

  • 1. Introduction and Background
  • 2. Approach

3 Results

  • 3. Results

a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia

  • 4. Conclusion
  • 5. Literature
  • 22 -
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SLIDE 23

Literature

  • ABB: What is HVDC? Internet: http://www.abb.com/industries/db0003db004333/7b35e81830400a56c125748100460015.aspx. Accessed 10 August 2009.
  • Czisch, G.: Realisable Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply based 100% on Renewable Energies. Dissertation, University of Kassel, Institute for

Electrical Engineering – Efficient Energy Conversion.

  • DESERTEC Foundation: Red Paper, Das DESERTEC Konzept im Überblick. Internet:

http://www.desertec.org/fileadmin/downloads/DESERTEC_RedPaper_2nd_de.pdf. Accessed 6 July 2009.

  • DESERTEC Foundation : White Book: Clean Power from deserts. Internet: http://www.desertec.org/fileadmin/downloads/DESERTEC-

WhiteBook_en_small.pdf. Accessed 28/07/2009.

  • DLR: Trans-CSP study, full report download. Internet: http://www.dlr.de/tt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2885/4422_read-6588/. Accessed 21 August 2009.
  • ENTSOE: UCTE Transmission Development Plan 2008. Internet http://www.entsoe.eu/_library/publications/ce/otherreports/tdp09_report_ucte.pdf.

Accessed 28 June 2009.

  • ENTSOE: Nordic Grid Master Plan 2008. Internet:

http://www.entsoe.eu/_library/publications/nordic/planning/080300_entsoe_nordic_NordicGridMasterPlan2008.pdf. Accessed 15 July 2009.

  • ENTSOE: The executive summary pre-feasibility study – state load flow study on synchronous operation of Baltic power systems with the UCTE.

y p y y y y p p y

  • ENTSOE: UCTE grid map 2008. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/resources/gridmap/. Accessed 27 August 2009.
  • ENTSOE: Statistical Database. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/resources/data/. Accessed 28 July 2009.
  • Eurostats: Introduction to the NUTS and the Statistical regions of Europe. Internet:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/nuts/introduction_regions_de.html. Accessed 17 May 2009. // / / / / /

  • Eurostats: Database. Internet: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database. Accessed 19 May 2009.
  • IEEE: Introduction to HVDC Technology for Reliable Electrical Power Systems. Internet: http://www.ee.kth.se/php/modules/publications/reports/2008/IR-

EE-ETK_2008_014.pdf. Accessed 30 August 2009.

  • Leuthold, F., Weigt, H. and von Hirschhausen, C.: ELMOD - A Model of the European Electricity Market, Working paper EM-00. Internet: http://www.tu-

dresden.de/wwbwleeg/publications/wp_em_00_ELMOD.pdf. Accessed 16 August 2009.

  • National Grid: Demand data. Internet: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/. Accessed 20 July 2009.
  • Nordel: Annual Report 2008. Internet: www.entsoe.eu/_library/publications/nordic/annualreport/Annual%20Report%202008.pdf. Accessed 25 July 2009.
  • Trieb et al. (2009): REACCESS report, Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe. Internet:

http://www.dlr.de/tt/Portaldata/41/Resources/dokumente/institut/system/publications/Solar_import_DLR_2009_07.pdf. Accessed 19 August 2009.

  • UCTE: Hourly load values. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/scripts/frameset/e frameset.asp?ms=/resources/data/consumption/mdv
  • 23 -

UCTE: Hourly load values. Internet: http://www.entsoe.eu/scripts/frameset/e_frameset.asp?ms /resources/data/consumption/mdv hourly_month_year_country/default.asp. Accessed 15 July 2009.

  • WETO: World Energy Technology Outlook - 2050, WETO H2. Internet: ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto-h2_en.pdf. Accessed 20 May 2009.
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Question?

  • 24 -
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Additional information #1

  • Generation
  • 25 -
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Additional information #2

Model cases Season Winter Summer Daytime Night Day Night Day Demand High Low High Low High Low High Low Wind ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ ↑ → ↓ d ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓

  • 26 -
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SLIDE 27

Additional information #3

  • MENA income and transmission cost:
  • 27 -
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Additional information #4

[€ct/kWh] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Portugal 17.4 12.8 9.6 8.9 8.3 Italy 18.7 13.8 10.3 9.6 8.9 [€ct/kWh] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Portugal 12.8 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.1 Italy 13.7 10.1 7.5 7.0 6.5 y Spain 17.4 12.8 9.6 8.9 8.3 Turkey 18.7 13.8 10.3 9.6 8.9 Greece 17.4 12.8 9.6 8.9 8.3 y Spain 12.8 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.1 Turkey 13.7 10.1 7.5 7.0 6.5 Greece 12.8 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.1 CSP Europe 18.0 13.3 9.9 9.2 8.6 Marokko 14.9 11.0 8.2 7.6 7.1 Tunesia 15.3 11.3 8.4 7.9 7.3 CSP Europe 13.2 9.8 7.3 6.8 6.3 Marokko 10.9 8.1 6.0 5.6 5.2 Tunesia 11.3 8.3 6.2 5.8 5.4 Egypt 15.1 11.1 8.3 7.8 7.2 CSP Mena 15.3 11.3 8.4 7.9 7.3 Egypt 11.1 8.2 6.1 5.7 5.3 CSP Mena 11.3 8.3 6.2 5.8 5.4

CSP cost with an interest rate of 6% Source: Own calculations DLR (2009b p 84) CSP cost with an interest rate of 10% Source: Own calculations DLR (2009b p 84) Source: Own calculations, DLR (2009b, p. 84) Source: Own calculations, DLR (2009b, p. 84)

  • 28 -
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Additional information #5

[TWh] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Albania 3 3 3 4 4 Austria 60 63 62 57 50 Belgium 90 94 95 86 76 Belgium 90 94 95 86 76 Bosnia-Herz. 12 13 15 17 20 Bulgaria 38 33 34 34 34 Croatia 18 19 22 24 27 Czech Republic 64 62 64 62 59 Denmark 37 42 45 45 45 Estonia 15 16 18 20 22 Finland 85 86 87 85 81 France 500 534 542 506 459 Germany 500 529 541 518 483 Greece 56 62 68 68 68 Hungary 44 45 50 52 54 Ireland 37 44 48 47 46 Italy 336 364 374 354 327 Latvia 15 16 19 21 23 Lithuania 21 22 26 28 31 Luxembourg 7 8 9 9 9 Macedonia 9 9 11 13 16 Montenegro 4 5 5 6 8 Netherlands 116 127 133 128 120 Netherlands 116 127 133 128 120 Norway 132 135 133 126 116 Poland 143 154 179 197 211 Portugal 51 58 65 69 71 Romania 55 60 78 95 113 Serbia 39 42 49 54 64 Slovakia 29 31 36 40 44 Slovakia 29 31 36 40 44 Slovenia 13 13 16 17 19 Spain 270 313 350 362 364 Sweden 143 148 151 149 145 Switzerland 50 51 48 41 35 Turkey 146 202 299 410 541 United Kingdom 351 389 413 409 397

  • 29 -

g Total 3,488 3,791 4,087 4,154 4,180

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Additional information #6

  • 30 -
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Additional information #7

[€/t] 2030 2050

€/MWhel

[ ] EC (2007a, p.27) 20 30 EC (2007a, p.56) 105 200 IEA (2008, p.204) n/a 40

200 0 250,0 300,0 350,0 €/MWhel Oil CCGT OGT

IEA (2008, p.204) n/a 160 EC (2007b, p.11) 24 n/a EREC (2008, p.42) 24 40

50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 OGT Hard Coal Lignite Uran Biomass

EFF 57 100 BAU 24 30

0,0 , 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Biomass

  • 31 -
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Additional information #8

  • 32 -
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Additional information #9

  • Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines

Objective

n,t node, hour gn generation in n dn demand in n p(dn) demand function in n c(gn) generation costs in n

 

  

 

q

g g c q q p W

t n

) ( d ) ( max

* ,

 

  

t n t n t n t n t n t n

g g c q q p W

, , , , , ,

) ( d ) ( max

  • Costs for HVDC transmission
  • Seasonal storage (reservoirs)

Three levels of wind generation

  • 33 -
  • Three levels of wind generation