EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION IN 2050 - Integration of large scale renewables g g Infraday, Berlin 10 October 2009 Based on study project 2050 - Jonas Egerer, et al. Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management
Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3 3. Results Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. Literature - 2 -
Background • DLR: Trans-CSP (2006) Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) from MENA countries using a HVDC grid is economically g g y feasible • DLR: Characterisation Analysis of solar electricity export potentials of of Solar Electricity MENA countries and possible import corridors to Import Corridors from EU27+. MENA to Europe (2009) - 3 -
Grand Solar Plan (U.S.) • Single source analysis (solar) • Nationwide integration by new HVDC overlay grid of 500 000km • Nationwide integration by new HVDC overlay grid of 500,000km • No integration of wind, biomass, etc. Source: Zweibel et al. 2009 - 4 -
Integrating 200,000 MW of RES into the US power grid • Regional approach • No coast to coast transmission expansion • No coast to coast transmission expansion • Including wind, solar and biomass Source: Krapels et al. 2009 - 5 -
Desertec: Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe p • EU wide integration for CSP • No evaluation of interaction for different large scale renewable energy sources in • No evaluation of interaction for different large scale renewable energy sources in the European electricity grid Source: Trieb et al 2009 Source: Trieb et al. 2009 - 6 -
Background • DLR: Trans-CSP (2006) Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) from MENA countries using a HVDC grid is economically g g y feasible • DLR: Characterisation Analysis of solar electricity export potentials of of Solar Electricity MENA countries and possible import corridors to Import Corridors from EU27+. MENA to Europe (2009) Challenge: Integrated economic engineering approach Maximizing total welfare for EU30+ with a DC load flow model • Renewable Energy: Interaction of LS hydro, wind and solar power • Engineering: • Engineering: Endogenous economic assessing of HVDC Endogenous economic assessing of HVDC integration for MENA CSP generation to EU30+ - 7 -
Findings • What could the process of CSP integration look like? - Expansion path of HVDC transmission Expansion path of HVDC transmission - Supplied markets mainly in southern Europe and profitability of CSP in 2030 - Regions with high shares of wind or hydro power are not supplied • Does a stronger integration of the Scandinavian market change the results? - Balancing mechanism of reservoirs combined with fluctuating wind power Balancing mechanism of reservoirs combined with fluctuating wind power - Price shifts (Scandinavia up, continental Europe and UK down) - Lower electricity prices influence profitability of CSP integration - 8 -
Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3 3. Results Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. Literature - 9 -
Original ELMOD • Model of the Western / Central European UCTE network with 2120 nodes and 3243 lines 3243 lines - 10 -
Adjusted ELMOD • Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines • 105 demand and generation nodes • Simplified AC grid • Reference year with 24 states • Reference year with 24 states Season Daytime Daytime Demand Wind generation • Seasonal storage (reservoirs) • Objective: Welfare maximization for the entire system - 11 -
Adjusted ELMOD • Demand increase to 4.200 TWh/yr in 2050 • Gradual decrease of fossil fuels in the electricity sector due to increasing generation capacities of RES • Exogenous CSP generation expansion g g • CO2-price 2050: 100 €/t-CO2 • Escalation rates fuel prices: • Oil and gas: 2.5 %/yr • Coal: C l 1 0 %/ 1.0 %/yr - 12 -
Endogenous HVDC expansion from MENA • Three export nodes in the MENA region (Morocco, Tunisia and Middle East) • Possible HVDC connection to 30 demand centers in the EU30+ • Line costs according DLR cost-distance images (DLR 2009) - 4GW cables Model endogenously obtains the optimal HVDC connections for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Evaluation of the HVDC expansion path for CSP integration. - 13 -
Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3 3. Results Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. Literature - 14 -
HVDC Expansion for CSP integration • Expansion based on welfare maximization: Electricity prices Transmission costs Grid congestions Demand D d • CSP profitable in 2030 (rising electricity prices) (rising electricity prices) • Calculated transmission costs of about 1 cent/kWh 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Additional welfare gains Morocco 1 1.9GW 2 7.8GW 5 18.5GW 9 32.7GW Tunisia 1 1.4GW 4 5.7GW 4 13.4GW 6 23.6GW for consumers Middle East 1 3.5GW 4 14.4GW 9 33.9GW 15 57.5GW - 15 -
Influence of Scandinavia • Evaluation of the integration of the Scandinavian market and continental Europe/ the UK • Additional exogenous HVDC connections: - Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs - Balancing of wind power - Shift in electricity prices y p Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP? Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP? - 16 -
Influence of Scandinavia • Expanded inter-connection of the markets shifts prices - Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kWh - Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kWh - Price decrease for rest of Europe 0.5 - 1.0 cent/kWh Price difference through better market integration: • No influence on HVDC corridors before 2050 Northern zones • CSP profitability delayed due to lower prices also in southern Europe Southern zones [cent/kWh] -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration. - 17 -
Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3 3. Results Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. Literature - 18 -
Conclusion • Transmission - HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe) HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe) - Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP avert integration in CSP supply • Profitability - Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO 2 prices) - Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market - 19 -
Conclusion - 20 -
Conclusion • Transmission - HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe) HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe) - Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP avert integration in CSP supply • Profitability - Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO 2 prices) - Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market • Possible issues • Possible issues - Institutional aspects for the MENA region - Regulatory framework for transmission investments - Opposition for integration of Scandinavian markets (distribution of surpluses) - N-1 criteria / back-up costs and import dependency - 21 -
Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3 3. Results Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. Literature - 22 -
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