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Estimating MCMIS Crash File Underreporting from Carrier Records March 22, 2017 Office of Research and Information Technology Background Anecdotally, carriers believer crashes are underreported to MCMIS Common estimate of 15%

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Office of Research and Information Technology

Estimating MCMIS Crash File Underreporting from Carrier Records

March 22, 2017

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Background

Anecdotally, carriers believer crashes are

underreported to MCMIS

Common estimate of 15% underreporting
Study conducted by UMTRI to get a sense of the

level of underreporting

Not a statistically valid sample

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Sample

6 carriers agreed to participate:

3 national for-hire with straight & combination trucks
1 regional with primarily combination trucks
1 private with straight and some combination trucks
1 private with only straight trucks

Accident Files:

4 provided full accident files but identified crashes they

thought were reportable

2 provided only crashes they thought were reportable

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Part 390.5 provides definitions of commercial motor vehicles and accidents.

Reportable Crash Criteria

Vehicle Truck with GVWR over 10,000 or GCWR over 10,000,

Bus with seating for at least 9, including the driver,

Vehicle displaying a hazardous materials placard. Crash Fatality,

Injury transported to a medical facility for immediate medical attention,

Vehicle towed due to disabling damage.

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Carriers supplied 58,333 event records
They identified 8,392 meeting MCMIS crash reporting criteria.
4,777 crash records in MCMIS for the 6 carriers
3,885 records (81.3%) in MCMIS matched carrier IDed reportable

crashes

303 records (6.3%) in MCMIS that carriers IDed as not reportable
589 MCMIS crash records (12.3%) not in carrier files
Insufficient information in carrier files to link the records to the correct crashes

in MCMIS.

Incorrect information in either the MCMIS file or carrier files as to times,

places, and vehicles.

Crashes erroneously attributed to a carrier.
That leaves 4,507 crashes as potentially underreported

The Carrier Data, 2012-2014

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Crash Files from 15 States
FL, GA, ID, LA, MD, MI, MO, NE, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, UT, WA
These States accounted for 1,462 of the 4,507 missing crashes
1,462 crashes carriers IDed as reportable searched for
564 crash records found in State files
710 not found
188 with insufficient data in State file to match (excluded from

further analysis)

That leaves 1,274 crashes to investigate

The State Data, 2012-2014

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Combining sorting by crash severity and vehicle type:
197 (35%) met FMCSA crash reportability criteria
276 (49%) did not
91 (16%) unknown (towed but PAR didn’t capture disabled)
Estimating proportion of unknowns that qualify:
GES – 84% of PDO crashes involved disabling damage
84% of 91 unknowns = 76 potentially reportable crashes
Final estimates for the 564 records in State files but not in

MCMIS

273 (48%) were reportable crashes
291 (52%) were not reportable

Estimating 564 Records in State Files not in MCMIS

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Why were 48% of reportable crashes in State files not

reported to MCMIS?

Misclassification: 25% were misclassified as light trucks
Incorrect DOT number: 16%
Missing DOT number: 36%

Possible Reasons for not Uploading to MCMIS

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What about the 710 crashes carriers considered reportable but

weren’t in State files? No PAR was filed.

Estimated 56% of missing crashes were reportable crashes.

Crashes in Carrier Files but not State Files

Met MCMIS reporting criteria? Number % Yes 28 3.9 Likely yes 88 12.4 Maybe, if towed 261 36.8 Likely no 109 15.4 No 104 14.6 No, light duty 24 3.4 Road debris, damage 18 2.5 Deer/animal-minor 71 10.0 Unknown 7 1.0 Total 710 100.0

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What is the implied level of underreporting to the MCMIS

crash file, based on the carrier files?

For the carriers studied, 4,777 crashes were reported to MCMIS.
An estimated additional 2,468 should have been reported.
Underreporting was estimated to be about 34 percent
How reliable was carrier-identification of MCMIS-

reportable crashes?

Carriers correctly identified about two-thirds of the crashes as

MCMIS-reportable.

But about 25 percent of the crashes they identified as reportable

were not.

And they missed about 6 percent of their reportable crashes.

Conclusions

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Encourage State and local police to prepare PARs for

reportable large truck and bus crashes

Will involve training on what’s a reportable crash.
Emphasize reporting DOT numbers
Will involve training on how to identify the correct DOT number.
Improve identification of truck and bus types
Use NHTSA’s vPIC to decode VINs.
Available at https://vpic.nhtsa.dot.gov/decoder/Decoder .