ESS INDIA Team I NDI A Khan, S.S. (IIMA) Mahapatra, D. (IIMA) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ESS INDIA

Team I NDI A

Khan, S.S. (IIMA) Mahapatra, D. (IIMA) Yadav, P.K. (IIMA) Deshpande, A. (MANIT)

Scenario Sustainable (2050)

‘A progressive society w hich is rapidly grow ing, inclusive as w ell as urbanized and sim ultaneously addresses the concerns of intergenerational equity and critical natural capital’

Societal Mindset Individualistic but conscious Allocation of Time Life revolves around work Consumption Behavior High but sensitized to intergenerational equity Housing Preference Multi dwelling housing structure Average Floor Space Increase Economic Status Reasonable growth rates Industrial Structure Led by tertiary sector International Relationships and Trade Selective Education Complete literacy, Strengthened school and higher education system Population Slow down in growth rate, Decline in family size Urban Profile 60% Urbanization, Balanced, Compact city structure, Public transport priority, Efficient corridors, EE Technologies, Critical natural resource protection.

Scenario Sustainable (2050)

Keywords Index Base Year Target Year Grounds for the parameter Housing Preference Share of detached house X% 0.5X% Larger urbanized population with a compact city development is expected to reduce the share of detached houses Floor Space Houses 35 m 2 60 m 2 12 m 2 per capita (Planning standard, India) * 4 (Household Size Expected) + 25% Offices 8.6 b m 2 37.36 b m 2 High urbanization and high employment in secondary and tertiary sectors Real GDP 2000 B Rs. 18801 445856 7% Average GDP Share P/ S/ T 22/ 27/ 51 15/ 25/ 60 High urbanization and tertiary sector driving change Population (Billion) 1.028 1.658 UN Medium Variant

• No. of

households (mil)/ Average family members 192 / 5.3 473 / 3.5 Higher population / Urbanization leading to reduction in family size Urban Population 30% 55% Forecasts Energy Access 55% 90% Govt vision for complete access by 2020

Scenario Aggressive (2050)

Societal Mindset Individualistic Allocation of Time Life revolves around work Consumption Behavior High Housing Preference Multi dwelling housing structure Average Floor Space Increase Economic Status High growth rates Industrial Structure Secondary and tertiary sectors having equal priority and increase rapidly International Relationships and Trade Open Education Complete literacy, Strengthened school and higher education system Population Slow down in growth rate, Decline in family size Urban Profile 70% Urbanization, Focused Growth, Multimodal transport characteristics, Efficient corridors

Scenario Aggressive (2050)

Keywords Index Base Year Target Year Grounds for the parameter Housing Preference Share of detached house X% 0.6X% Larger urbanized population is expected to reduce the share of detached houses Floor Space Houses 35 m 2 52 m 2 12 m 2 per capita (Planning standard, India) * 3.5 (Household Size Expected) + 25% Offices 8.6 b m 2 50.7 b m 2 High urbanization and high employment in secondary and tertiary sectors Real GDP 2000 B Rs. 18801 615722 8% Average GDP Share P/ S/ T 22/ 27/ 51 5/ 30/ 65 High urbanization and tertiary sector driving change Population (Billion) 1.028 1.978 UN high variation

• No. of

households (mil)/ Average family members 192 / 5.3 565 / 3.5 Higher population / Urbanization leading to reduction in family size Urban Population 30% 60% Forecasts Energy Access 55% 90% Govt vision for complete access by 2020

Results: Residential

1426%

• 1356%

1443%

• 938%

575% 970%

• 1016%

892%

• 720%

126%

• 1500%
• 1000%
• 500%

0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% D E /D C /E C '/C Total vs 2000's 2050 Aggressive 2050 Sustainable

Factor Analysis Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions

Results: Passenger Transport

1985%

• 434%
• 9%
• 306%

1236% 896%

• 173%
• 19%
• 312%

392%

• 1000%
• 500%

0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% D E/D C/E C'/C Total vs 2000's 2050 Aggressive 2050 Sustainable

Factor Analysis Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions

Results: Freight Transport

Factor Analysis Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2050 Aggressive (CM) 2050 Sustainable (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS REN Heat H2 ELE

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 2000 2050 Aggressive (CM) 2050 Sust ainable (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS REN Heat H2 ELE

567%

• 41%

2%

• 92%

437% 492%

• 68%
• 59%
• 114%

250%

• 200%
• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% D E/ D C/ E C'/ C Total vs 2000's 2050 Aggressive 2050 Sustainable

Results

Total

883%

• 302%

221%

• 396%

406% 472%

• 157%

137%

• 335%

117%

• 600%
• 400%
• 200%

0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% D E/D C/E C'/C Total vs 2000's 2050 Aggressive 2050 Sustainable

Results

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2000 2050 Aggressive (CM) 2050 Sustainable (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS NUC HYD REN

Primary Energy Consumption (By Fuel) Secondary Energy Consumption (Sectoral)

• 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2000 2050 Aggressive (CM) 2050 Sustainable (CM) Industrial Residential Commercial

• Trans. Prv.
• Trans. Frg.

Results

CO2 Emissions (By Fuel) CO2 Emissions (Sectoral)

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2050 Aggressive (CM) 2050 Sustainable (CM) COL OIL GAS

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2050 Aggressive (CM) 2050 Sustainable (CM) Industrial Residential Commercial

• Trans. Prv.
• Trans. Frg.

Other

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