ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling g Exercise Presentation by Thailand - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM LCS Workshop 2008 AIM-LCS Workshop 2008 31 October 2008, Tsukuba

ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling g Exercise Presentation by Thailand Team Thailand Team

Shreekar Pradhan and Mayurachat Watcharejyothin Asian Institute of Technology Pathumthani Thailand Pathumthani, Thailand

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Brief Background

• Location:

– Area of 513,115 km2 and extends about 1,620 km from north to south and 775 kilometres from east to west.

• Population: 64.76 million
• Population Density: 126 people/km2
• Population Density: 126 people/km
• GDP: US $ 176 billion

GDP it

US $ 2727 ( 2005)

• GDP per capita: US $ 2727 (year 2005)
• Economy: 2nd highest in the ASEAN region

CO2, TPES, GDP and Population Growth during 1990-2006 g

2.6 CO2 2.2 2.4 TPES GDP P l ti 1.8 2

x (1990=100)

Population 1.4 1.6

Index

1 1.2

AAGR (2001-2006):

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

3 Source: DEDE, 2006, IMF, 2008, IEA, 2007 and 2008

( ) CO2: 4.35% Population: 1.02% TPES: 5.91% GDP: 5.07%

Final Energy Demand during 2000-2050 in the Reference Scenario in the Reference Scenario

350 400 Agriculture 300 350 Residential Commercial Transport 200 250 Mtoe Industrial 100 150 50 100 Source: Shrestha et al., 2008

Final Energy Demand in future would increase by more than 6 folds during 2000-2050.

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 4

Residential: decrease from 17% to 4% Industrial: increase from 33% to 41% Agriculture: decrease from 4% to 1% Commercial : Increase from 6% to 12% Transport: Increase from 40% to 42%

Sectoral CO2 emission during 2000-2050 in the Reference Scenario?

1200 1400 Agriculture Residential Agriculture 1000 1200 Commercial Transport Power Industrial Residential Agriculture 600 800

MtCO2

Power Transport Commercial 400 600 Industrial 200

• Increase in CO2 emission by more than 6 folds during 2000-2050.

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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2

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• Industrial, Transport and Power sectors together account for 94% of the

cumulative CO2 emission during 2000-2050.

Path to Low Carbon Society by 2050

Our past studies (based on bottom up models) in developing LCS scenarios show that the two areas developing LCS scenarios show that the two areas would be the main sector that larger CO2 emission reduction would be achieved: reduction would be achieved: a) transport and b) electricity generation b) electricity generation The study also shows that unless we introduce some major The study also shows that unless we introduce some major policy changes in other sectors as well like fuel shifting, modal shift, the higher CO2 emission would not be possible in the current structure.

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Path to Low Carbon Society by 2050

In this study, we have focused on the following sectors for ESS and BCM exercises: R id ti l

• Residential
• Transport
• Electricity Generation

Electricity Generation The issue of climate change would be of major concern.

• With the declining population growth, there would be growth in aging

population and also a mature society.

• With the economy growing and declining population the
• With the economy growing and declining population, the

income/capita would rise. This makes shifting to cleaner fuel options and technology options affordable.

• The consumption of fossil fuel would be drastically reduced and

cleaner fuel would be the major choice.

• As a result, the cost of fossil fuel would go up and people would be

As a result, the cost of fossil fuel would go up and people would be inclined to cleaner fuel use.

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Residential and Residential and Power Generation

Residential Sector

In the residential sector, the following actions and strategy would be implemented: be implemented:

• Energy efficiency (EE) labeling program for household

appliances in phase wise: (EE would increase by 50% by pp p ( y y 2020 and 75% by 2050 for all air conditioners manufactured in the country.) P l ill t t i l ti th i h f 2015 d

• People will start insulating their homes from 2015 onward as a

result there would be reduction of 2 Mtoe by 2050 .

• By 2050 oil based cooking will be shifted to electricity based

By 2050, oil based cooking will be shifted to electricity based cooking.

• The manufacturing capacity of domestic solar water heating

systems would be developed by 2015; people would start utilizing solar water heating systems from 2020 onward.

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Electricity Generation Sector

With the increasing fuel shift towards electricity in residential sector there would be a need to shift to cleaner fuel in sector, there would be a need to shift to cleaner fuel in electricity generation. Thus, the following actions and strategy would be implemented:

• With the expected growing economy, the electricity demand

would significantly rise. At present, the power generation is heavily based on natural gas along with coal heavily based on natural gas along with coal.

• In order to meet the power demand, nuclear power generation

would be put as an option by 2020. p p y

• With the technology transfer and improvement program in

power generation, all fossil fuel power generation would achieve 50% efficiency by 2050.

• The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) scheme

would be maintained; 6 Mtoe power generation would come would be maintained; 6 Mtoe power generation would come from renewable energy resources.

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Options: Energy Efficiency Improvement (an Example) ( p )

Energy Efficiency Improvement in cooling HH appliances HH appliances

Stricter Energy Efficiency Labeling Program Ph II Phase II Review of the program Soft l Energy Efficiency Labeling Program Phase I loans Technology Transfer Conferences, workshop, media Increasing awareness Survey on the Survey on energy Program p, campaign among the stakeholders share of EE cooling devices efficiency of cooling devices

CO2 Reduction by intervention in Residential and Power Generation Residential and Power Generation

12 Source: DEDE, 2006

CO2 Reduction by Different Options

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ACTIONS focused on Transport passenger sector

Transport Sector Policies in Thailand

• Biofuel development and promotion

Gasohol – Gasohol

• Targeted replacement of gasoline fuel use.
• Strategy to promote fuel-flex vehicles

Biodiesel – Biodiesel

• Targeted replacement of diesel fuel use.
• Community level biodiesel production.

St t t t t l hi l

• Strategy to promote natural gas vehicles

– Subsidy in compressed natural gas

• Development and Strategy to promote Mass Rapid

Development and Strategy to promote Mass Rapid Transits

– Extending of electrified subways and sky trains. Development of double track railways – Development of double track railways. – Development of intercity electric trains. – High speed electric engines to replace diesel engines in Railways.

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Actions in Passenger Transport Sector

**Action** Reductions of EC and CO2 i i Energy CO2 emission Infrastructure& Fuel supply gy Efficiency improvement Systematic control R&D Infrastructure& Investment Planning Traffic control Bio-fuel promotion Synergy Plan agri/energy supply Common access Intelligent Priority parking FFVs development FFVs manufacturing Regional El t i t i Intelligent system (GIS) Priority lanes Priority parking lodge Common ticket Public Information Cost, benefits, safety Electric train Urban planning Incentive

• Investment tax
• Environmental tax
• Price tax

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Data survey

Key Assumptions: Transport Sector

• Projection of service energy demand is based on

sectoral value added sectoral value added

– Moderate Growth for 2000-2050:

• Personal passenger vehicles (PPV)

PPV ll 4 5% – PPV-small: 4.5% – PPV-mini:4.5% – PPV-large:3.3%

Commercial passenger vehicles (CPV): 3 3%

• Commercial passenger vehicles (CPV): 3.3%
• Bus: 2.8%
• Train: 3.3%

Shi 2 8%

• Ship: 2.8%
• Air: 4.0%

Options Descriptions Commence Durations (Years) 1 Sytematic Traffic Control 2015 5 1 Sytematic Traffic Control 2015 5 2 Master plan for clean and green city 2015 15 3 Incentive tax to promote the clean-green of central urban areas 2020 5 5 High efficiency passenger vehicle 2020 20 6 High efficiency passenger bio-fuel vehicles 2010 20 7 Green tax for low environmental load vehicle 2020 30 8 Priority lanes and parkings lodge for environmental friendly vehicle 2020 30 9 Bus rapid track 2010 20

ACTIONS

10 Common ticket for bus, train, ship 2010 20 11 High efficiency passenger railway (ELE, TRN) 2020 20 12 High efficiency passenger ship (OIL, SHP) 2020 20 13 High efficiency passenger Bio-alcohl ship (BMS, SHP) 2020 20 13 High efficiency passenger Bio alcohl ship (BMS, SHP) 2020 20 14 High efficiency passenger airplane (OIL, AIR) 2020 20 15 High efficiency passenger biofuel airplane (BMS, AIR) 2020 20 16 Improvement of the efficiency of public transportation 2010 40 17 R&D support for lighter and FFVs maintenance training public hearing 2008 15 17 R&D support for lighter and FFVs, maintenance, training, public hearing 2008 15 18 Promotion of biomass utilization 2008 19 Relaxation of regulations and cost reduction in certain regions 2010 15 20 Synergy plans for agriculture/forestry/energy 2010 20 21 Cost reduction of biomass conversion technology 2010 35 22 Soft loan at initial stage of efficient FFVs 2010 5 23 Modal shift to public transportation service 2008 20 24 Carbon tax on transportation energy 2010 10 25 Regional-electric train 2020 10 26 Fuel Shift for Mini Passenger vehicle 2010 40

Impacts

• f

ACTIONS Preliminary Results

CO2 Emission: BAU and Scenario Cases

ACTIONS focused on Transport passenger sector

Impacts of the Action

Total CO2 Emission Reduction

2

0.00 0.20

• 0.03 Mtons
• 0.20

2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 6 2 3 8 2 4 2 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 6 2 4 8

• 0.60
• 0.40
• 1.00
• 0.80

3 14 Mt

• 1.20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

3.14 Mtons

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

Impacts of the Action

CO2 Emission Reduction by Options

0.20

2

y p

Increasing of electric train services

• 0.20

0.00

• 0.60
• 0.40

High efficiency in small (28%)

• 1.00
• 0.80

High efficiency in small (28%) and mini (32%) PPVs

• 1.20

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 Mtons

Discussion on ESS and BCM

• Effectiveness: Reasonable – Back casting!

Addi diff t ti i t diff t h t ?

• Adding different options in two different sheets?
• Fuel share in intermittent years?
• Amount of CO2 reduction by policy options (may not

directly reduce CO2)? I t t f l f l t h l ti ?

• Investment for cleaner fuel or technology options?
• Linking with other models?

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Thank You!

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