Energy Transition in Germany Energy Transition in Germany The Way - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Energy Transition in Germany Energy Transition in Germany The Way - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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www.volker-quaschning.de Energy Transition in Germany Energy Transition in Germany The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning HTW Berlin University of

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Energy Transition in Germany – The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply Energy Transition in Germany – The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply

www.volker-quaschning.de

Worldbank March 13, 2012 Washington DC

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Contents

The Solar Revolution Energy Transition in Germany Objectives for a Sustainable Energy Supply

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Objectives for a Sustainable Energy Supply

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Impact of Climate Change

Source: NASA

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Impact of Climate Change

Source: NASA

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise

+7 m

Washington DC

Graphic: Norbert Geuder

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise

Washington DC

Graphic: Norbert Geuder

+70 m

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise

Hamburg Berlin

+70 m

Graphic: Norbert Geuder

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions related to energy

Mt former CO2 emissions reduction path for the two degree target

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Global Requirements for Climate Protection

data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Some Nuclear Incidents with Impact on Germany

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Chernobyl accident 1986 Forsmark near-accident 2006 Asse radioactive storage disaster 2007

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Options for CO2 Reductions

energy conservation „CO2-free“ fossil power stations nuclear power renewable energies

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Thesis I

For a sustainable energy supply we have to become carbon dioxide free until 2040. Otherwise we risk to sink our costal cities. In the longer term we risk a sea level rise of up to 70 meters. The current installation rates for renewable power even in Germany are to low for an effective climate protection.

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Energy Transition in Germany

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Bruttostromverbrauch in TWh

Fossile Kraftwerke Kernenergie Import (regenerativ) Photovoltaik Windkraft Geothermie Biomasse Wasserkraft

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Goals for Renewable Electricity of German Parties

Federal Government

shutdown of nuclear power until 2022 >80% renewables until 2050

Opposition

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2050 2030 2020 2010 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2050 2030 2020 2010

100% renewables until 2030 75% renewables until 2030

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2050 2030 2020 2010

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Installed Renewable Capacity in Germany

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Renewable Energy Jobs in Germany

16 Data: BMU

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Centralized Renewable Electricity Supply

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Continuing supply oligopoly Many new power lines necessary Energy transition not realizable fast enough

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Decentralized Renewable Electricity Supply

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more competition and cost effectiveness less new power lines but more decentralized storage are needed energy transition is realizable in any speed we want

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Gross electricity demand in TWh fossil power nuclear power import (renewable) photovoltaic wind power geothermal power biomass hydropower

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Gross Electricity Demand in Germany

HTW scenario: climate protection and sustainable development 20 % 100 %

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Power Generation of a 100 % Renewable Power Supply

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mean monthly power generation and demand

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 solar import geothermal hydro power biomass wind power photovoltaics gross demand GW

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Former Electricity Supply in Germany

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spring week in 2008

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 PV wind power biomass hydro power medium and peak load brown coal nuclear power MW Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun nuclear power (base load) brown coal (base load) medium and peak load wind power PV

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

„Dental Chart“ – 70 GW Grid-Connected PV in Germany

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possible generation during a spring week 2020

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 PV wind (offshore) wind (onshore) geothermal power biomass hydro power medium and peak load MW Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun medium and peak load

PV

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Storage Solutions for a Renewable Electricity Supply

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decentralized battery storage electrolysis methanization water

  • xygen

hydrogen carbon dioxide water methane natural gas storage natural gas power station natural gas grid

heat electricity excess electricity

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Thesis II

If we keep the high installation rates for renewable power for the next 10 years we do not need base load power stations anymore. Then, it will be impossible to run nuclear

  • r brown coal power stations economically.

This is why the big power companies and some politicians now want to reduce new renewable installations significantly.

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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The Solar Revolution

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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coal or nuclear power PV Germany, roof PV Germany, open space PV North Africa wind power domestic electricity price

ct/kWh

Development of Electricity Prices

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grid parity

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Current Electricity Price Levels in Germany

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generation level 3…8 ct/kWh 9…10 ct/kWh 19…26 ct/kWh fossil power station 6…25 ct/kWh CO2- charge CCS power customer industry homes and trade consumer level EEG levy

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

10 20 30 40 50 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ct/kWh domestic PV domestic fuel oil 10 20 30 40 50 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ct/kWh domestic PV domestic fuel oil 10 20 30 40 50 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ct/kWh domestic PV domestic fuel oil +5% .p.a. domestic fuel oil +3% p.a. domestic fuel oil +1% p.a.

Cost Development of Domestic Fuels

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Assumptions: Boiler efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kWh/l

  • il

parity

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh

Expected Share of PV for the Global Electricity Supply

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0.3 % GER: 3.5 % USA: 0.05 % 50 %

Assumptions: 30% market growth per year until 2025, then 550 GW p.a.

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Thesis III

The immense price reduction of photovoltaic systems will start a revolution in the energy sector within this decade. Photovoltaic systems must not compete to utility operated power stations because they can be installed directly at the consumer. PV will be fully competitive very soon and is

  • ne major hope for climate protection and

global access to electricity.

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  • Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Thank you for your Attention

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www.volker-quaschning.de

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