Energy Transition in Germany Energy Transition in Germany The Way - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

www.volker-quaschning.de Energy Transition in Germany – Energy Transition in Germany – The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences US Congress Longworth Building March 12, 2012 Washington DC

Impact of Climate Change HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Source: NASA Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 2

Impact of Climate Change HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Source: NASA Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 3

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Washington DC +7 m Graphic: Norbert Geuder Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 4

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Washington DC +70 m Graphic: Norbert Geuder Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 5

Global Requirements for Climate Protection HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences 40000 reduction path Mt for the two degree target 35000 CO 2 emissions related to energy 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 former CO 2 emissions 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 6

Some Nuclear Incidents with Impact on Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Forsmark near-accident 2006 Chernobyl Asse accident radioactive 1986 storage disaster 2007 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 7

Goals for Renewable Electricity of German Parties HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Federal Government 2010 2020 2030 2050 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% shutdown of nuclear power until 2022 >80% renewables until 2050 Opposition 2010 2020 2030 2050 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 75% renewables until 2030 2010 2020 2030 2050 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100% renewables until 2030 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 8

Installed Renewable Capacity in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 9

Gross Electricity Demand in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences HTW scenario: climate protection and sustainable development 20 % 100 % 700 600 demand in TWh fossil power 500 nuclear power import (renewable) 400 photovoltaic wind power electricity 300 geothermal power biomass 200 hydropower Gross 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 10

Power Generation of a 100 % Renewable Power Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences mean monthly power generation and demand 90 GW 80 70 solar import 60 geothermal 50 hydro power 40 biomass wind power 30 photovoltaics 20 gross demand 10 0 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 11

Storage Solutions for a Renewable Electricity Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences natural gas power station heat electricity natural gas grid excess electricity decentralized battery storage hydrogen electrolysis water methanization methane carbon dioxide natural gas oxygen storage water Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 12

Development of Electricity Prices HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences ct/kWh 120 coal or nuclear power PV Germany, roof 100 PV Germany, open space PV North Africa wind power 80 domestic electricity price 60 grid parity 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 13

Cost Development of Domestic Fuels HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Assumptions: Boiler efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kWh/l 60 domestic PV domestic fuel oil +5% .p.a. 50 domestic fuel oil +3% p.a. domestic fuel oil +1% p.a. 40 oil ct/kWh 30 parity 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 14

Expected Share of PV for the Global Electricity Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Assumptions: 30% market growth per year until 2025, then 550 GW p.a . 0.3 % 50 % 45000 TWh today 40000 GER: 3.5 % USA: 0.05 % 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 15

Thank you for your Attention HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences For further reading… www.volker-quaschning.de Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 16