Energy Cost Escalation / Peak Oil Kenneth Dwyer V.P. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Energy Cost Escalation / Peak Oil

Kenneth Dwyer

V.P. Communications, U of A Energy Club

Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Computing Science University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB dwyer @ cs.ualberta.ca

International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Monitors energy markets for the world's 26

most-advanced economies, including the U.S., Japan and all of Europe.*

 It acts as a counterweight in the market to the

views of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.*

– * Source: Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2008.

 EIA's “World Energy Outlook 2008” report to be

released on November 12, 2008.

– See http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

IEA World Energy Outlook

 The Energy Business Review recently previewed the

upcoming report:

– “The IEA [report] has highlighted longer term supply side constraints, despite the precipitous correction in world oil prices of late, as current depletion rates

• utstrip future demand.”

– “Conventional production will effectively remain static, rising from 70.4m b/d in 2007 to 75.2m b/d in 2030, as 'new gains' and 'old losses' balance out.” – “[T]he credit crunch could prove to be the calm before the storm as far as pain at the pumps is concerned.”

“IEA report underlines long term supply side challenges for oil markets”

Energy Business Review, Nov. 4, 2008.

Peak Oil: Challenges for Edmonton

Food security

– Our industrialized food system relies heavily on fossil fuel inputs

• Most food is transported by large trucks
• Conventional farms use fertilizers, as well as

tractors and other machinery that requires fuel

Heating homes and buildings

– Canadian natural gas supplies are in decline

• See this interview with geologist David Hughes

Transportation

– Energy-dense gasoline is difficult to replace – We can't change/upgrade all our car and truck engines overnight, esp. during an oil shortage

Peak Oil Resolutions

 On April 11th, 2006, San Francisco became the

first major city in North America to pass a resolution about our energy predicament.

 The resolution calls for peak oil to be considered a

serious issue, a city wide assessment funded by the mayor to be undertaken, and the oil depletion protocol to be endorsed.

 Similar measures have since been enacted by:

– Austin, TX; Burnaby, BC; Hamilton, ON; Oakland, CA; Portland, OR; and others. – Edmonton should make Peak Oil a priority! – See http://www.postcarboncities.net

Thank you for your time.