PEAK STEEL an inquiry into the evolution of steel use EXPERIENCES, CONSIDERATIONS, FORECASTS Pierluigi Molajoni April 2016
A SAMPLE OF PEAK STEEL EPISODES Absolute ACSU ACSU per capita Steel intensity of GDP Peak year Million tons Peak year Kg per person Peak year Kg per kUSD* UK 1970 25.4 1970 455 1964 32.7 USA 1973 156.2 1973 737 1965 31.2 France 1973 25.6 1973 480 1969 25.3 Japan 1991 99.2 1973 826 1973 48.6 Italy 2006 38.8 2006 667 1970 22.3 Mexico 2006? 25.5 2006? 227 2006? 14.6 Germany 2007? 46.0 2007? 559 1970? 28.4 South Korea 2008? 61.0 2008? 1246 1995 49.2 Brazil 2013? 29.4 2010? 149 1974 14.3 China 2013? 765.8 2013? 564 1968 71.9
PEAK STEEL MAIN FEATURES GDP per capita ACSU per capita ACSU/GDP Early Peakers UK (pk 1970) 16.6 45.5 27.4 USA (pk 1973) 26.4 73.7 27.9 France (pk 1973) 20.8 48.0 23.1 Japan (pk 1991) 30.4 80.0 26.3 Pre-Great Recession Peakers Italy (pk 2006) 37.8 66.7 17.7 Mexico (pk 2006) 15.5 22.7 14.6 Germany (pk 2007) 40.7 55.9 13.7 S. Korea (pk 2008) 28.7 100.0 43.5 Post- Great Recession Peakers Brazil (pk 2010) 14.0 14.9 10.6 China (pk 2013) 11.5 56.4 49.0
PEAK STEEL INTENSITY FEATURES GFCF/GDP Manuf. Value Added Manuf. Exports Early Peakers UK (pk 1970) 22.1 25.0 80.1 USA (pk 1973) 23.3 25.0 62.2 France (pk 1973) 26.2 22.1 71.3 Japan (pk 1991) 31.6 25.8 96.0 Pre-Great Recession Peakers Italy (pk 2006) 21.5 17.4 84.8 Mexico (pk 2006) 21.9 18.1 76.0 Germany (pk 2007) 20.1 23.3 86.8 S. Korea (pk 2008) 31.4 28.6 86.9 Post- Great Recession Peakers Brazil (pk 2010) 19.5 16.2 37.1 China (pk 2013) 47.3 31.8 94.0
STEEL INTENSITY AND CAPITAL FORMATION 50.0� y� =� 0.3619x� +� 16.69� R ² � =� 0.65702� 40.0� GDP� of� %� forma on,� 30.0� capital� fixed� 20.0� � Gross� 10.0� 0.0� 0.0� 10.0� 20.0� 30.0� 40.0� 50.0� 60.0� 70.0� 80.0� Steel� intensity� of� GDP,� kg� per� '000� 2011� USD� at� PPP�
STEEL INTENSITY AND MANUFACTURING 50.0� y� =� 0.3116x� +� 16.357� R ² � =� 0.51856� 40.0� GDP� of� %� 30.0� as� Added� Value� 20.0� Manufacturing� 10.0� 0.0� 0.0� 10.0� 20.0� 30.0� 40.0� 50.0� 60.0� 70.0� 80.0� Steel� intensity� of� GDP,� kg� per� '000� 2011� USD� at� PPP�
STEEL INTENSITY AND MANUFACTURING EXPORTS 120.0� y� =� 19.387ln(x)� +� 20.482� R ² � =� 0.28961� 100.0� trade� 80.0� merchandise� 60.0� of� %� in� exports� 40.0� Manufactures� 20.0� 0.0� 0.0� 10.0� 20.0� 30.0� 40.0� 50.0� 60.0� Steel� intensity� of� GDP,� kg� per� '000� 2011� USD� at� PPP�
PEAK STEEL OTHER FEATURES Urban population Motor vehicles prod. Early Peakers UK (pk 1970) 77.1 37.7 USA (pk 1973) 73.6 40.6 France (pk 1973) 72.3 55.2 Japan (pk 1991) 77.5 100.0 Pre-Great Recession Peakers Italy (pk 2006) 67.9 20.8 Mexico (pk 2006) 76.6 18.2 Germany (pk 2007) 73.7 75.5 S. Korea (pk 2008) 81.7 78.2 Post- Great Recession Peakers Brazil (pk 2010) 84.3 17.3 China (pk 2013) 53.2 16.3
STEEL INTENSITY AND AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION 100.0� y� =� 1.5174x� +� 21.445� R ² � =� 0.32596� 80.0� people� '000� 60.0� per� vehicles� motor� 40.0� of� Produc on� 20.0� 0.0� 0.0� 5.0� 10.0� 15.0� 20.0� 25.0� 30.0� 35.0� 40.0� 45.0� 50.0� Steel� intensity� of� GDP,� kg� per� '000� 2011� USD� at� PPP�
CHINA’S PEAK vs EARLY PEAKERS
CHINA’S PEAK vs LATE PEAKERS
POSSIBILITIES • Expand the sample of countries • Consider additional economic features: – quantity and quality of infrastructure – more detailed sectorial breakdowns • Show a “movie”, not only a “still”
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