Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Presenter: P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India For AIM India Team 9 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 12-14, 2004

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Presentation Agenda • Emissions Inventory for India • National Applications with New Indian Scenarios � Indian Scenarios � CO 2 Emissions and Large Point Source Analysis (with AIM/Local Model) � Non-CO2 Gas Emissions (with AIM/Local Model) � Integrated Environment Analysis (with AIM/Material Model) • Urban Application (with AIM/Local Model) • Innovative Application (with AIM/Local Model) • Future Direction

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Emissions Inventory for India

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Emission Trends Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR * 778 956 4.9 593 Carbon dioxide Methane 16.98 17.82 18.63 0.9 N 2 O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8 SO 2 3.54 4.64 5.02 3.6 NO X 2.64 3.46 4.30 5.0 CO 2 equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1454 3.6 * Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Emission Trends CO 2 CH 4 1000 19.5 E m is s io n s (T g ) 19 Emissions (Tg) 800 18.5 600 18 Growth rate 4.9% 17.5 400 Growth rate 0.9% 17 200 16.5 0 16 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Emission Trends 7 0.35 E m is s io n s (T g ) 6 0.3 Emissions (Tg) SO 2 (CAGR 3.6%) 5 0.25 4 0.2 N 2 O (CAGR 3.8%) 3 N 2 O Growth rate 0.15 NO x (CAGR 5%) 3.9% 2 0.1 1 0.05 0 0 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � Indian Scenarios

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Indian Scenarios Market integration Integrated Fragmented Centralization IA1 IA2 e c n China Pre-reform a n (Mixed Economy Model) r e v IB1 IB2 Decentralizatio n o G Sustainable Self Reliance Model Development

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop India: Population Projection 1500 High 1400 Population (Million) Medium 1300 Low 1200 1100 1000 2001 2011 2021 2031 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop India: GDP Projection 1400 Index(2000 = 100) 1200 IA1 1000 800 IB1 600 IA2 GDP 400 IB2 200 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy Consumption 1390 IA1 1290 Energy Consumption (MToE) 1190 IA1T IA2 1090 IB1 990 IB2 890 790 690 590 490 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Carbon Emissions (MT) 900 IA1 800 IA2 Carbon Emissions (MT) 700 IB2 IA1T 600 IB1 500 400 300 200 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy Intensity of GDP (Index Year 2000 = 100) 120 100 Energy intensity index 80 60 IB2 IA2 40 IB1 IA1 20 IA1T 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Carbon Intensity of GDP (Index Year 2000 = 100) 100 90 Carbon intensity index of GDP 80 70 60 IB2 IA2 50 IA1 IB1 Index at 2000 = 100 IB1 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Per Capita Carbon Emissions (kg C/person) 700 650 IA1 600 Per Capita Emissions 550 IA2 500 IB2 450 IA1T IB1 400 350 300 250 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy and Carbon Emissions for India (IA2 Scenario): Analysis with AIM/Models Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions 800 50 Renewables Biomass 40 Nuclear 600 30 Carbon (MT) Hydro Exa Joules Gas 400 20 Oil 200 10 Coal 0 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP (IA2 Scenario) 20 18 Energy Carbon Electricity GDP 16 14 12 10 Past Trends 8 6 4 Future Projections 2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon (IA2 Scenario) 1.8 1.6 1.4 Electricity 1.2 Carbon Energy 1 0.8 0.6 Past Trends Future Projections 0.4 0.2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop GHG versus Local Emissions in India Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions 800 7 6 600 Million Tonnes 5 Carbon (MT) 4 400 3 2 200 1 0 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � CO 2 Emissions and Large Point Source Analysis (with AIM/Local Model)

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional Spread of Large Point Sources Power Paper Steel Sugar B Cement Caustic soda C Fertilizer Others Regional Details D A Golden corridor A B Delhi E C Northeast India coal mine D East India coal mine E Central India coal mine F F Southern region

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop LPS Coverage Sector Sub- sectors LPS covered 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150 Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23 Steel 11 17 23 29 Cement * 85 98 110 123 Fertilizer 31 41 52 62 Paper 33 38 43 48 Sugar 28 28 29 30 Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26 Industrial H 2SO 4manufacturing 63 64 66 68 processes Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5 Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11 Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8 Zinc ore sm elting (Zn) 3 4 5 5 Total 383 458 524 588

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CO 2 emissions for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Million Tons Million Tons < 3 0 3 - 6 5 6 - 9 10 9 - 12 15 12 - 15 20 15 - 18 18 - 21 30 > 21 40 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CO 2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030) IA1 IB1 IB2 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons 0 0 < 3 < 3 3 - 6 3 - 6 5 5 6 - 9 6 - 9 10 10 9 - 12 9 - 12 15 15 12 - 15 12 - 15 20 20 15 - 18 15 - 18 18 - 21 18 - 21 30 30 > 21 > 21 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources 40 40

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � Non-CO 2 Gas Emissions (with AIM/Local Model)

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of SO 2 emissions for IA2 Scenario 2030 2000 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.07 0.07 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.11 0.11 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 0.15 0.15 > 0.060 < 0.20 > 0.20 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of SO 2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030) IA1 IB1 IB2 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01-0.017 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.017-0.026 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.026-0.035 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.035-0.044 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.044-0.053 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 0.053-0.060 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 > 0.060 > 0.060 > 0.20 < 0.20 < 0.20 > 0.20 < 0.20 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CH 4 emissions for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Thousand Ton CH 4 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of N 2 O emissions for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Regional distribution of CO 2 Equivalent for IA2 Scenario 2000 2030 Mt-CO 2 Mt-CO 2 equivalent equivalent 0 < 3 3 - 6 5 6 - 9 10 9 - 12 15 12 - 15 20 15 - 18 30 18 - 21 40 > 21

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop National Applications � Integrated Environment Analysis (with AIM/Material Model)

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Solid Waste Generation for Indian Emission Scenarios ( Index Year 2000 = 1) 3 IA1 IA2 2.5 IB1 IB2 2 1.5 1 2000 2010 2020 2030

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Cumulative CO2 emissions from India (2000-2030) 14 12 10 8 MtC 6 4 2 0 Reference Constraint Recycling Innovation

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Change in GDP over Reference (IA2) Scenario 2015 2020 2025 2010 2030 0 -10 -20 Billion $ (Constant 2000) -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 Constraint Recycling Innovation -90

India Presentation: 9 th AIM International Workshop Urban Applications Analysis with AIM/ Local Model