Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Presenter: P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India For AIM India Team 9 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March

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Emissions Inventory and Modelling in India

Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

9th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 12-14, 2004

Presenter: P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India For AIM India Team

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Presentation Agenda

  • Emissions Inventory for India
  • National Applications with New Indian Scenarios
  • Indian Scenarios
  • CO2 Emissions and Large Point Source Analysis (with AIM/Local Model)
  • Non-CO2 Gas Emissions (with AIM/Local Model)
  • Integrated Environment Analysis (with AIM/Material Model)
  • Urban Application (with AIM/Local Model)
  • Innovative Application (with AIM/Local Model)
  • Future Direction
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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Emissions Inventory for India

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Indian Emission Trends

* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)

Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR *

Carbon dioxide 593 778 956 4.9 Methane 16.98 17.82 18.63 0.9 N 2O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8 SO 2 3.54 4.64 5.02 3.6 NO X 2.64 3.46 4.30 5.0 CO 2equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1454 3.6

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Indian Emission Trends

16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 1990 1995 2000

Emissions (Tg)

200 400 600 800 1000 1990 1995 2000

E m is s io n s (T g )

Growth rate 4.9% Growth rate 0.9% CO2 CH4

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Indian Emission Trends

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1995 2000

Emissions (Tg) SO2 (CAGR 3.6%) NOx (CAGR 5%) N2O Growth rate 3.9%

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 1990 1995 2000

E m is s io n s (T g )

N2O (CAGR 3.8%)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

National Applications

Indian Scenarios

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Indian Scenarios

Fragmented

IA1

China

IA2

Pre-reform

(Mixed Economy Model)

IB1

Sustainable Development

IB2

Self Reliance Model

Centralization Decentralization

Market integration G

  • v

e r n a n c e

Integrated

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

India: Population Projection

High Medium Low

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 2001 2011 2021 2031 Years Population (Million)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

India: GDP Projection

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2000 2010 2020 2030

Years

GDP Index(2000 = 100) IA1 IB1 IA2 IB2

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Energy Consumption

Years 490 590 690 790 890 990 1090 1190 1290 1390 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Consumption (MToE) IA1T IA2 IB1 IB2 IA1

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Carbon Emissions (MT)

Years 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2000 2010 2020 2030 Carbon Emissions (MT) IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2 IA1T

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Energy Intensity of GDP (Index Year 2000 = 100)

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years Energy intensity index IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2 IA1T

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Carbon Intensity of GDP (Index Year 2000 = 100)

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years Carbon intensity index of GDP IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2 Index at 2000 = 100 IB1

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Per Capita Carbon Emissions (kg C/person)

250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 2000 2010 2020 2030 Years Per Capita Emissions IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2 IA1T

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Energy and Carbon Emissions for India (IA2 Scenario):

Analysis with AIM/Models

200 400 600 800 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Carbon (MT) 10 20 30 40 50 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Exa Joules Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Biomass

Carbon Emissions Energy Consumption

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP

(IA2 Scenario)

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Energy Carbon Electricity GDP Past Trends Future Projections

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electricity Carbon Energy Past Trends Future Projections

GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon

(IA2 Scenario)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

GHG versus Local Emissions in India

200 400 600 800 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Carbon (MT) Year Million Tonnes 1 2 3 4 5 6 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 7

Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

National Applications

  • CO2 Emissions and Large Point Source Analysis

(with AIM/Local Model)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Regional Spread of Large Point Sources

Power Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar Caustic soda Others A B C D E F

Southern region F Central India coal mine E East India coal mine D Northeast India coal mine C Delhi B Golden corridor A Regional Details

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

LPS Coverage

Sector Sub- sectors LPS covered 2000 2010 2020 2030

Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150 Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23 Steel 11 17 23 29 Cement * 85 98 110 123 Fertilizer 31 41 52 62 Paper 33 38 43 48 Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26 H 2SO 4manufacturing 63 64 66 68 Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5 Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11 Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore sm elting (Zn) 3 4 5 5 Total 383 458 524 588

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Regional distribution of CO2 emissions for IA2 Scenario

5 10 15 30 40 20 Million Tons

< 3 3 - 6 6 - 9 9 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 Million Tons

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

2000 2030

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Regional distribution of CO2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030)

IA1 IB1 IB2

5 10 15 30 40 20 Million Tons 5 10 15 30 40 20 Million Tons

< 3 3 - 6 6 - 9 9 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 Million Tons < 3 3 - 6 6 - 9 9 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 Million Tons

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

National Applications

  • Non-CO2 Gas Emissions

(with AIM/Local Model)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop 2000 2030

< 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 > 0.20 0.11 Million Tons

< 0.01 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 > 0.060 Million Tons

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Regional distribution of SO2 emissions for IA2 Scenario

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

< 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 > 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 > 0.20 0.11 Million Tons

< 0.01 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 > 0.060 Million Tons < 0.01 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 > 0.060 Million Tons

IA1 IB1 IB2

Regional distribution of SO2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

2000 2030

Thousand Ton CH4

Regional distribution of CH4 emissions for IA2 Scenario

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Regional distribution of N2O emissions for IA2 Scenario

2000 2030

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop 2000 2030

5

10 15 30 40 20 < 3 3 - 6 6 - 9 9 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 Mt-CO2 equivalent Mt-CO2 equivalent

Regional distribution of CO2 Equivalent for IA2 Scenario

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

National Applications

  • Integrated Environment Analysis

(with AIM/Material Model)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2000 2010 2020 2030 IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

Solid Waste Generation for Indian Emission Scenarios (Index Year 2000 = 1)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Reference Constraint Recycling Innovation MtC

Cumulative CO2 emissions from India (2000-2030)

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Billion $ (Constant 2000)

  • 90
  • 80
  • 70
  • 60
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Constraint Recycling Innovation

Change in GDP over Reference (IA2) Scenario

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Urban Applications

Analysis with AIM/ Local Model

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Regional distribution of CO2 emissions in Ahmedabad District for Reference (IA2) scenario

CO2 Thousand Ton CO2 Thousand Ton

2000 2030

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

SO2 Thousand Ton SO2 Thousand Ton

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

Regional distribution of SO2 emissions in Ahmedabad District for Reference (IA2) scenario

2000 2030

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Innovative Applications

Analysis with AIM/ Local Model

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Managing SO2 Emissions: Case of LPS

0.09 28 Sugar 0.043 33 Paper 63.52 282 Total 6 31 Fertilizer 5 85 Cement 7 11 Steel 45 94 Power Plants Share of all-India SO2 emissions (%) in 1995 Number LPS

Need for a national policy as well as local-specific policies

Power Industrial Processes Others Steel and Cement Fossil Fuel Extraction

LPS spread in different urban centers

LPS in India

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Emission Cap-and-Trade vis-à-vis Technology Policy

1 2 3 4 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year SO2 emissions (MT)

SO2 Emissions Cap Trajectory

2000 4000 6000 8000 2005 2015 2030

Year

Marginal Costs (Rs/ton of SO2)

Marginal costs for SO2 mitigation

Annual average cost savings over a 30 year period is Rs. 3600 million ($80 million) 45% cost- savings over 30 years in the emissions cap and trade instrument

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India Presentation: 9th AIM International Workshop

Future Agenda 2003-04

  • Urban Air Quality Studies with AIM (including innovations scenarios)
  • Electricity Sector Modelling with AIM/Local
  • Regional Modelling of Non-CO2 emissions and counter measures
  • Long-term Technology Strategies for India
  • Networking with AIM team for New model with developing country focus (e.g.

Urban/Rural, Formal/Informal)

  • Mitigation and Stabilization scenarios