Emission Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India 8 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 13-15, 2003 IIM Ahmedabad
Overview � Emissions Inventory for India � Future Emissions for India � Large Point Sources Analysis � Non CO 2 Emissions � Future Scenarios for India � South-Asia Regional Cooperation IIM Ahmedabad
Emissions Inventory for India IIM Ahmedabad
Emissions Inventory for India Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR * 778 983 4.9 593 Carbon dioxide Methane 17.050 18.050 18.630 1.2 N2O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8 SO 3.540 4.640 5.02 5.3 2 NO 2.640 3.460 4.660 5.0 X CO 2 equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1469 3.5 * Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%) IIM Ahmedabad
Key Contributors to India's GHG emissions (2000) Sources Emission % share Main emission sources Coal based electricity CO 2 29.9 50 large plants Steel industry CO 2 8.8 5 large plants Cement industry CO 2 5.1 50 large plants Livestock related CH 4 , N 2 O 12.6 Highly dispersed Paddy cultivation CH 4 6.6 Highly dispersed Biomass consumption CH 4 , N 2 O 5.2 Highly dispersed Synthetic fertilizer use N 2 O 4.1 Highly dispersed Transport sector CO 2 9.5 Highly dispersed and mobile Waste disposal CH 4 3.8 40 large waste dumps Other sources CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O 14.4 Varied and dispersed All India (Tg) 1469 As above IIM Ahmedabad
India Emission Trends (Tg) Carbon dioxide Methane 1000 19.5 E m is s io n s (T g ) E m is s io n s ( T g ) 19 800 18.5 600 Growth rate 4.9% 18 17.5 Growth rate 1.2% 400 17 200 16.5 0 16 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000 IIM Ahmedabad
India Emission Trends (Tg) SO 2 and NO x N 2 O 7 0.35 E m is s io n s (T g ) E m is s io n s ( T g ) 6 0.3 SO 2 (GR 5.3%) 5 0.25 N 2 O (GR 3.8%) 4 0.2 N 2 O Growth rate 3.9% 3 0.15 NO x (GR 4.9%) 2 0.1 1 0.05 0 0 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000 IIM Ahmedabad
Emission Inventory: GIS Analysis IIM Ahmedabad
GIS Layers Power (Coal) Point Paper Source data Layers Aluminum Extract Coal Mining Emission information Display on Base Map IIM Ahmedabad
CO 2 and SO 2 Emission Distribution (2000) CO 2 SO 2 IIM Ahmedabad
CO 2 and SO 2 Emission Distribution (2000) � Hot-spots of CO 2 and SO 2 have high correlation with coal consumption � Thermal power plants (Coal), large cities (Oil) and industrial towns – main hot-spots � Top 20 districts growth rate higher than national average � Least 400 contribution decreased but emissions marginally increased IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Location Map Sectors LPS covered 1995 Power 94 Steel 11 Cement 85 Fertilizer 31 Paper 33 Sugar 28 Caustic Soda 19 Crude refinery 12 Petrochemical 14 HNO 3 manufacturing 5 H 2 SO 4 manufacturing 63 Aluminum 3 Copper smelting 8 Lead smelting 5 Zinc smelting 3 Alcohol production 14 Coal mining 32 Natural gas production 9 N. gas transportation 12 Crude oil production 7 Municipal solid waste 14 Other industries 7 Total 509 IIM Ahmedabad
LPS: CO 2 Emissions 1995 Million Tons No. of CO 2 LPS LPS (Tg) LPS/Total Sectors Power 94 365 47 Steel 11 48 6 Cement 85 68 9 Fertilizer 31 14 2 Sugar 28 0.7 0.09 Paper 33 2.9 0.37 IIM Ahmedabad
Future Emissions for India IIM Ahmedabad
National Level Emission Projections for India Emissions (Tg) 2000 2010 2020 2030 CO 2 983 1556 2189 2945 Methane 18.63 20.08 21.73 24.36 N 2 O 0.308 0.508 0.702 0.838 CO 2 equivalent GHG 1469 2134 2889 3716 SO 2 5.02 5.87 6.25 5.77 NO X 4.66 6.08 7.64 8.53 IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Database � Data for increasing numbers of LPS � Coverage of gases: � CO 2 and SO 2 � Emissions factors for India � Projections up to year 2030 IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Locations 2000 2030 IIM Ahmedabad
AIM/Local System Sum of Value Energy_Device Remov al CK1 CK2 COLBLR Year NO N NO N NO N SFG D _bas e 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 I nput File 1996 6,000,000 26,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29,010,707 1,510,876 for GAMS 1999 6,556,362 30,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32,631,543 1,319,587 AI M/ Local Model 2002 7,164,314 33,683,447 1,263,694 AI M/ Local 2003 7,379,244 34,667,680 1,211,035 GAMS version 2004 7,600,621 35,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36,452,618 1,114,226 Database System Output file from GAMS GAMS I nput file for I DRI SI I DRI SI 32 IIM Ahmedabad
Database Generation � Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters � Thirty year time series GDP � Government projections � Expert opinion � LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trends � Demand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Coverage for India Sector Sub - sectors LPS covered 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150 Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23 Steel 10 16 22 28 Cement * 85 98 110 123 Fertilizer 31 41 52 62 Paper 33 38 43 48 Sugar 28 28 29 30 Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26 Industrial H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68 processes Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5 Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11 Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8 Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5 Total 382 457 523 587 * Process emissions included IIM Ahmedabad
CO 2 from Energy Sector LPS 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 Million Ton Million Ton 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 Year Year Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Power (Gas) Steel Steel Cement Cement Fertilizer Fertilizer Paper Paper Sugar Sugar IIM Ahmedabad
LPS contribution to CO 2 Percentage CO 2 Emissions Largest LPS 2000 2010 2020 2030 1 to 25 35.2 32.5 31 31.5 26 to 100 20.9 20.3 20.7 20.8 101 to 200 6.7 7.8 8.6 8.7 All other LPS 1.3 2.7 3 3.9 Total LPS Share 64.1 63.3 63.3 64.9 IIM Ahmedabad
CO 2 Emission Distribution 2000 2030 Million Tons Million Tons 0 < 3 3 - 6 5 6 - 9 10 9 - 12 15 12 - 15 20 15 - 18 18 - 21 30 > 21 40 IIM Ahmedabad
SO 2 from Energy Sector LPS 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 Million Ton 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Power Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar IIM Ahmedabad
SO 2 Emission Distribution 2000 2030 Million Tons Million Tons Million Tons < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.07 0.07 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.11 0.11 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 0.15 0.15 > 0.060 < 0.20 < 0.20 IIM Ahmedabad
Future Non CO 2 Emissions IIM Ahmedabad
CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 Equivalent GHG Emissions 350 CO 2 300 N 2 O Index 2000 =100 250 CO 2 equivalent 200 150 Methane 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years IIM Ahmedabad
Share of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O in CO 2 Equivalent GHG Emissions CO 2 equivalent (% Share) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year CO 2 Methane N 2 O IIM Ahmedabad
Contributions to Methane Emissions 50 45 40 livestock 35 % Share 30 agriculture 25 20 waste 15 others 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years IIM Ahmedabad
Shares of opencast and underground mining in methane emissions 90 80 Opencast mining 70 Mining Share (%) 60 50 40 30 Underground mining 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years IIM Ahmedabad
Methane emissions in Mitigation scenarios 25 Reference 23 Methane (Tg) Medium 21 19 Strong 17 15 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years IIM Ahmedabad
N 2 O emissions across scenarios 0.9 Reference 0.8 Medium 0.7 N2O (Tg) 0.6 Strong 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years IIM Ahmedabad
Technology Shares for CH 4 Mitigation Sector Technology Type 2010 2020 2030 Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong MSW CH 4 recovery Existing 0.004 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.13 Innovative 0 0.002 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.18 Waste to Existing 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.11 electricity Innovative 0 0.001 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 Waste reduction Existing 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.26 to organic Innovative 0 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.23 fertilizer Waste Existing 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.12 0.25 segregation for material reuse & recycle CBM Degasification & Existing 0.005 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.18 recovery pipe injection Catalytic Innovative 0 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.14 oxidation Enteric Improved Existing 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.10 fermentation digesters for Innovative 0 0.004 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.14 animals IIM Ahmedabad
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