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Emission Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Emission Inventory and Modelling in India Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India 8 th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 13-15, 2003 IIM Ahmedabad Overview

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P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India 8th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 13-15, 2003

Emission Inventory and Modelling in India

Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

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Overview

  • Emissions Inventory for India
  • Future Emissions for India
  • Large Point Sources Analysis
  • Non CO2 Emissions
  • Future Scenarios for India
  • South-Asia Regional Cooperation
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Emissions Inventory for India

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Emissions Inventory for India

Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR *

Carbon dioxide 593 778 983 4.9 Methane 17.050 18.050 18.630 1.2 N2O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8 SO 2 3.540 4.640 5.02 5.3 NO X 2.640 3.460 4.660 5.0 CO 2 equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1469 3.5

* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)

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Key Contributors to India's GHG emissions (2000)

Sources Emission % share Main emission sources Coal based electricity CO2 29.9 50 large plants Steel industry CO2 8.8 5 large plants Cement industry CO2 5.1 50 large plants Livestock related CH4, N2O 12.6 Highly dispersed Paddy cultivation CH4 6.6 Highly dispersed Biomass consumption CH4, N2O 5.2 Highly dispersed Synthetic fertilizer use N2O 4.1 Highly dispersed Transport sector CO2 9.5 Highly dispersed and mobile Waste disposal CH4 3.8 40 large waste dumps Other sources CO2, CH4, N2O 14.4 Varied and dispersed All India (Tg) 1469 As above

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India Emission Trends (Tg)

Carbon dioxide Methane

16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 1990 1995 2000

E m is s io n s ( T g )

200 400 600 800 1000 1990 1995 2000

E m is s io n s (T g )

Growth rate 4.9% Growth rate 1.2%

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India Emission Trends (Tg)

SO2 and NOx N2O

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1995 2000

E m is s io n s (T g )

SO2 (GR 5.3%) NOx (GR 4.9%) N2O Growth rate 3.9%

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 1990 1995 2000

E m is s io n s ( T g )

N2O (GR 3.8%)

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Emission Inventory: GIS Analysis

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GIS Layers

Coal Mining Aluminum Paper Power (Coal) Point Source data Layers Display on Base Map Emission information Extract

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CO2 and SO2 Emission Distribution (2000)

SO2 CO2

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Hot-spots of CO2 and SO2 have high correlation with coal consumption Thermal power plants (Coal), large cities (Oil) and industrial towns – main hot-spots Top 20 districts growth rate higher than national average Least 400 contribution decreased but emissions marginally increased

CO2 and SO2 Emission Distribution (2000)

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LPS Location Map

Sectors LPS covered Power 94 Steel 11 Cement 85 Fertilizer 31 Paper 33 Sugar 28 Caustic Soda 19 Crude refinery 12 Petrochemical 14 HNO3 manufacturing 5 H2SO4 manufacturing 63 Aluminum 3 Copper smelting 8 Lead smelting 5 Zinc smelting 3 Alcohol production 14 Coal mining 32 Natural gas production 9

  • N. gas transportation

12 Crude oil production 7 Municipal solid waste 14 Other industries 7 Total 509

1995

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Million Tons

LPS: CO2 Emissions

1995

CO2 Sectors

  • No. of

LPS LPS (Tg) LPS/Total Power 94 365 47 Steel 11 48 6 Cement 85 68 9 Fertilizer 31 14 2 Sugar 28 0.7 0.09 Paper 33 2.9 0.37

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Future Emissions for India

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National Level Emission Projections for India

Emissions (Tg) 2000 2010 2020 2030 CO2 983 1556 2189 2945 Methane 18.63 20.08 21.73 24.36 N2O 0.308 0.508 0.702 0.838 CO2 equivalent GHG 1469 2134 2889 3716 SO2 5.02 5.87 6.25 5.77 NOX 4.66 6.08 7.64 8.53

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LPS Database

  • Data for increasing numbers of LPS
  • Coverage of gases:

CO2 and SO2

  • Emissions factors for India
  • Projections up to year 2030
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LPS Locations

2000 2030

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AIM/Local System

I nput File for GAMS Output file from GAMS

Sum of Value Energy_Device Remov al CK1 CK2 COLBLR Year NO N NO N NO N SFG D _bas e 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1996 6,000,000 26,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29,010,707 1,510,876 1999 6,556,362 30,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32,631,543 1,319,587 2002 7,164,314 33,683,447 1,263,694 2003 7,379,244 34,667,680 1,211,035 2004 7,600,621 35,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36,452,618 1,114,226

I nput file for I DRI SI AI M/ Local Database System AI M/ Local Model GAMS version

GAMS

I DRI SI 32

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Database Generation

  • Sectoral demand projections on the basis of

macro-economic parameters

  • Thirty year time series GDP
  • Government projections
  • Expert opinion
  • LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand

elasticity and past production trends

  • Demand over and above LPS capacities assigned

to Area Sources

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LPS Coverage for India

Sector Sub

  • sectors

LPS covered 2000 2010 2020 2030

Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150 Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23 Steel 10 16 22 28 Cement * 85 98 110 123 Fertilizer 31 41 52 62 Paper 33 38 43 48 Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26 H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68 Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5 Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11 Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5

Total 382 457 523 587 * Process emissions included

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CO2 from Energy Sector LPS

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year Million Ton

Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year Million Ton

Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

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LPS contribution to CO2

2000 2010 2020 2030 1 to 25

35.2 32.5 31 31.5

26 to 100

20.9 20.3 20.7 20.8

101 to 200

6.7 7.8 8.6 8.7

All other LPS

1.3 2.7 3 3.9

Total LPS Share 64.1 63.3 63.3 64.9 Largest LPS Percentage CO2 Emissions

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CO2 Emission Distribution

2000 2030

5 10 15 30 40 20

Million Tons < 3 3 - 6 6 - 9 9 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 Million Tons

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SO2 from Energy Sector LPS

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year Million Ton

Power Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

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SO2 Emission Distribution

2000 2030

< 0.01 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 > 0.060 Million Tons

< 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons

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Future Non CO2 Emissions

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CO2, CH4, N2O and CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Index 2000 =100 CO2 Methane N2O CO2 equivalent

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year CO2 equivalent (% Share) CO2 Methane N2O

Share of CO2, CH4 and N2O in CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions

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Contributions to Methane Emissions

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years % Share agriculture livestock waste

  • thers
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Mining Share (%) Opencast mining Underground mining

Shares of opencast and underground mining in methane emissions

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Methane emissions in Mitigation scenarios

15 17 19 21 23 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Methane (Tg) Reference Medium Strong

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N2O emissions across scenarios

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years N2O (Tg) Reference Medium Strong

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Technology Shares for CH4 Mitigation

Sector Technology Type 2010 2020 2030 Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong Existing 0.004 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.13 CH4 recovery Innovative 0.002 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.18 Existing 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.11 Waste to electricity Innovative 0.001 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 Existing 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.26 Waste reduction to organic fertilizer Innovative 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.23 MSW Waste segregation for material reuse & recycle Existing 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.12 0.25 Degasification & pipe injection Existing 0.005 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.18 CBM recovery Catalytic

  • xidation

Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.14 Existing 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.10 Enteric fermentation Improved digesters for animals Innovative 0.004 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.14

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Technology Shares for N2O Mitigation

2010 2020 2030 Sector Technology Type Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong Existing 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.2 0.25 CAN fertilizers in crops with aerobic conditions Innovative 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.1 0.2 Existing 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.26 Synthetic fertilizer use Ammonium (NH4-N) fertilizers in wetland crops Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.2 Existing 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.18 0.25 Soil emissions Use of nitrification inhibitors Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.18 Existing 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.28 HNO3 prodn. NSCR use Innovative 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.18 0.27

CAN (calcium ammonium nitrate), NSCR (Non selective catalytic reduction)

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Future Scenario for India

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Matrix of Indian scenarios

Market integration

Centralization Decentralization

IA1 High Growth IA2 Business ass usual IB1 Sustainable Development IB2 Self Reliance Governance

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Scenarios and Key Drivers

Scenario Key Drivers Implications on critical parameters

  • f the scenarios and modelling

analysis

IA1: High Growth Competition and private participation, Access to global finance and technology, Technology R&D, transfer and capacity building Reduced risk perception Fuel price (↑), technology cost (↓), efficiency (↑), Transmission and Distribution losses (↓), Investment capacity (↑), Technology choices (↑), Discount rate (↓), Earlier penetration of advanced technologies IA2: BAU Case GDP growth, Energy efficiency, Non-fossil fuels vs. fossil fuels, Oil consumption Technological change, Movement on the fuel ladder Sectoral demands (↑↓), investment limits (↑↓), fuel supply (↑↓), Range of Fossil fuel prices (↑↓), Relative fossil fuel price adjustments, Efficiencies of technologies using oil and gas

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Scenarios and Key Drivers Contd..

Scenario Key Drivers Implications on critical parameters

  • f the scenarios and modelling

analysis

IB1: Sustainable Development Strong environmental awareness and conservationist values, Environmental integrity, consumption changes, dematerialization, cooperation, Shift away from fossil fuels, Local capacity building, Rural energy and electricity development Environmental constraints (↑), energy and materials content of goods/ services (↓), electricity consumption due to efficiency improvements (↓), Transmission and Distribution losses (↓), Penetration of clean and renewable technologies (↑), Fossil fuel prices (↑) IB2: Regional Development GDP growth, population, Local emissions, Productivity, Importance of Agriculture, Resource intensity, Self- reliance Population growth (↑), Sectoral demand (↑↓), Investments (↓), Penetration of clean and renewable technologies (↑↓), Agriculture share high, Local resource intensive economy

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India: Population Projection

High Medium Low

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 2001 2011 2021 2031 Years Population (Million)

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India: GDP Projection

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2000 2010 2020 2030

Years

GDP Index (2000 = 100) IA1 IB1 IA2 IB2

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Growth in Energy Forms in Different Scenarios

Oil & Gas Coal Renewables IA1 High Moderate Moderate IA2 Moderate High Low IB1 Moderate Low High IB2 Low Moderate Low

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South-Asia Regional Cooperation

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Why South-Asia Energy-Electricity Market Integration?

Diversity of Energy Resources among countries

India relies on poor quality domestic coal Bangladesh has reserves of Natural Gas Nepal and Bhutan have Hydro power potential Sri Lanka needs to import fuel for power Pakistan has an important role as a transit state

Little Energy/ Electricity Trade in the Region

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Energy Resource Consumption (2000)

51% Oil (89%) – Mostly imports Sri Lanka 33% Oil (55%) – Mostly imports Pakistan 81% Oil (74%) – Mostly imports Nepal 55% Imported oil Maldives 35% Coal (52%) – Mostly Domestic India 95% Imported oil and coal Bhutan 47% Domestic Gas (65%) Bangladesh

Traditional Biomass (as % of total energy consumption) Dominant fuel in commercial energy consumption Country

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Energy Markets

  • Gas
  • Coal
  • Electricity
  • Hydro

(Elec./Water)

Regional Energy-Electricity Markets

Nepal/Bhutan Hydro Gas Gas/Oil

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South-Asia Cooperation Scenarios

  • Country specific analysis using the AIM/ Trend model
  • Interface of the trend results with bottom-up optimization

model for South-Asia regional analysis

  • Three specific scenarios have been developed
  • Dynamics as Usual
  • Medium Cooperation Scenario
  • Accelerated Cooperation Scenario
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Total Primary Energy Supply Saving

  • Cumulative Saving in ACS:

60 EJ in 20 years (2010- 2030)

  • This is equivalent to $180

billion cumulative

2 4 6 8 10 2010 2020 2030

% S a ving

MCS ACS

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Reduction in Carbon Emissions

4 8 12 16 2010 2020 2030

% Dec reas e

MCS ACS

  • Cumulative Savings in ACS:

1.4 Billion tonnes of Carbon.

  • This is equivalent to $28

Billion saving

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Benefits from Cooperation (Cumulative from 2010-30)

Benefit (Saving) $ Billion % of Region's GDP Energy (Direct Benefits) Energy 60 Exa Joule 180 0.48 Investment in Energy Supply Technologies 72 0.19 Investment in Energy Demand Technologies 69 0.18 Environm ent (Indirect Benefits) Carbon 1.4 Billion Ton 28 0.08 Sulfur Dioxide (SO

2)

50 M illion Ton 10 0.03 Total Direct and Indirect Benefits 359 0.98 Spillover Benefits W ater 16 GW additional hydro capacity Flood Control From additional dams Competitiveness Reduced unit energy/electricity cost

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Future Agenda 2003-04

Regional Modelling of Non CO2 emissions Inventory of six Kyoto gases for year 2000 Assessment of innovative technologies New model with developing country focus Refinement of scenarios Future emission projections for new

scenarios using AIM family models

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Thank You