Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia Tokyo, JAPAN, 11-14 March 2014

Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters

14 March 2014 Yosuke IGARASHI Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA's Operational Service

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Analysis and Forecast

Upper Air Observation Radar Observation Ocean Observation Space Based Observation Surface Observation

Observations

Data Collection

Products

Warnings, Advisories Typhoon Forecast Weather Forecast One Week Forecast Seasonal Forecast Aeronautical Met. Information Marine Met. Information

Information Issuance

Local Met. Observatories

Numerical Weather Prediction Collection and Dissemination of

• Met. Data

Computer System for Met. Service

Other NMHSs

International Data Exchange

Data/ Products

The Public

J apan Meteorolog ic al Ag enc y

(L

• c

a l Meteorolog ic al O bs erva tories )

Is s uance of dis as ter prevention information, s uch as :

• Weather Warning / Advis
• ry
• T

yphoon Info.

• E

arthquake E arly Warning / Info.

• T

s unami Warning / Advis

• ry / Info.
• V
• lcanic Warning / Info.
• Aviation / Marine Weather Info.
• V
• lcanic As

h Advis

• ry

P refectural G

• vernments

National P

• lice Ag

ency NT T (Nippon T elegraph and NT T (Nippon T elegraph and T elephone C

• rporation)

ML IT (Water and Dis as ter ML IT (Water and Dis as ter Manag ement B ureau) F ire and Dis as ter F ire and Dis as ter Manag ement Ag ency NHK NHK (J apan B roadc as ting C

• rporation)

Media Org aniz ations P ublic Weather S ervices J apan C

• as

t G uard ML IT (C ivil Aviation B ureau)

Municipality G

• vernments

S ervice Us ers Airplanes Marine V es s els P ublic Agencies etc. Disaster Prevention Activities

J a pa n Meteorolog ic al B us ines s S upport C enter

JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in

• rder to reach people surely and quickly.

C ellular c arrier J MA Webs ite, etc.

Dissemination of Warnings

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Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan 2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan!

(Number of dead or missing) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Year) (Number of houses)

Dead or missing Houses destroyed completely or partially

Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms

Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management)

2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas

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10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October 2004

T0404

(landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Jun 11)

T0406

(landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Jun 21)

T0410

(landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Jul 31)

T0411

(landed on Japan around 22:30JST, Aug 4)

T0415

(landed on Japan around 06:00JST, Aug 20)

T0416

(landed on Japan around 10:00JST, Aug 30)

T0418

(landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Sep 7)

T0421

(landed on Japan around 08:30JST, Sep 29)

T0422

(landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Oct 9)

T0423

(landed on Japan around 13:00JST, Oct 20)

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500km

“Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for Evacuation Advisories and Orders” (Cabinet Office, 2005)

Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4% Not determined: 15.6% Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1% Not determined: 92.9%

During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory / order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner.

Source: Cabinet Office, 2004

Municipalities should determine specific criteria.

Background: Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order.

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In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision...

• 1. Warnings should be issued to city / town / village

respectively.

• 2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for

evacuation advisory and order. Improvement of Warning

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Evacuation Order Warning

JMA Municipalities Residents

Warning Warning

Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages

多摩西部 多摩南部 多摩北部 23区西部 23区 東部

奥多摩町 檜原村 青梅市

あき る野市

八王子市 町田市

多摩市 稲城市

日野市 府中市

国立市

立川市 昭島市

福生市 羽村市 瑞穂町 武蔵 村山市 東大和市 東村山市 小平市 国分寺市 小金井市 清瀬市 西東京市 武蔵野市 三鷹市

調布市

狛江市

世田谷区 大田区

目黒区

品川区

杉並区 練馬区

中野区

板橋区

北区 豊島区 新宿区

渋谷区

港区

中央区 文京区 台東区 荒川区

足立区

葛飾区

江戸川区

江東区

墨田区

Tokyo

Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities, towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in Japan). JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in 2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan).

8 20km

warning advisory no warning / advisory

Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast

Mayor's Decision Criteria Evacuation Order  Water level of the river has reached "Flood Danger Level."  Embankment is broken. Evacuation Advisory  Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people to evacuate

Evacuation Preparation Information  Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate

Criteria recommended in the Guideline Flood Danger Level Flood Alert Level Flood Watch Level

Standby Level

Flood Forecast with Level

Flood Forecast Title Water Level Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur) Lv4: Flood Danger Info. Flood Danger Level Lv3: Flood Alerting Info. Flood Alert Level Lv2: Flood Advisory Info. Flood Watch Level

• Standby Level

Water Level Setting

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Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning

Mayor's Decision Criteria Evacuation Order  Sea level has reached "Storm Surge Danger Level."  Tidal embankment is broken. Evacuation Advisory  Sea level is expected to reach "Storm Surge Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people to evacuate, however, storm will be also expected as the tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider the advisory when it meets the criteria for preparation information.

Evacuation Preparation Information  Sea level is expected to reach "Storm Surge Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate

Criteria recommended in the Guideline

JMA set the criteria for storm surge warning consistent with "Storm Surge Danger Level."

• 1. If the municipality already set the

"Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the level as the warning criterion for the city, town or village.

• 2. If the municipality is NOT set the

"Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the warning criterion based on the survey (e.g. design high tide level for embankment, lowest altitude of the wharf).

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Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert

Mayor's Decision Criteria Evacuation Order  The rainfall situation has reached "Critical Line."  A sediment disaster has

• ccurred in neighbours.

Evacuation Advisory  The rainfall situation is expected to reach "Critical Line" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people to evacuate

Evacuation Preparation Information  The rainfall situation is expected to reach "Critical Line" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate

Criteria recommended in the Guideline

JMA set the "Critical Line" as the criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert.

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60分間 積算雨 量（ mm/hr） 土壌雨量指数（ mm） 50 100 150 200 250 300 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Unreal Area

降雨発現 確率値

・ 非発生降雨

60分間 積算雨 量（ mm/hr） 土壌雨量指数（ mm） 50 100 150 200 250 300 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Unreal Area

降雨発現 確率値

・ 非発生降雨

60 min. rainfall amount (mm) probability

• f rainfall
• ccurrence

Soil Water Index (mm) rainfall with NO sediment disaster rainfall with sediment disaster

Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence

Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012

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Specific criteria has been pre-determined Specific criteria are under reviewing Specific criteria are under development Not yet started

Flood Storm Surge

Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2013

Sediment Disaster

Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision

Disaster Mayors Decision Sediment Disaster River Flooding Storm Surge Flooding Evacuation Advisory Sediment Disaster Alert Flood Alerting Information Storm Surge Warning Evacuation Preparation Information Heavy Rain Warning Flood Warning Flood Advisory Information Setting Up Disaster Countermeasures Heavy Rain Advisory Flood Advisory Storm Surge Advisory 13

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Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011

Cumulative rainfall amount from 2 to 4 September, 2011.

(mm)

50km

Heavy Rain by Talas caused Catastrophic Damage

Damages: 98 dead or missing 3,538 houses comp / part destroyed 22,094 houses flooded

Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2012

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Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2011 (figure) Talas visible image and its track (red line) at 12JST of Sep. 2.

9月の月降水量の 平年値 282.7mm

0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00

Heavy Rain Advisory Heavy Rain Warning

Rainfall continued after JMA had issued warning, and the situation became worse and worse. However, there was no effective way to inform the public of the catastrophic situation we never experienced!

Sediment Disaster

Warnings during the Heavy Rain by Talas

1 hour rainfall amount Cumulative rainfall amount

Sediment Disaster Alert

1 hour rainfall amount (mm) Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)

• Aug. 31
• Sep. 1
• Sep. 2
• Sep. 3
• Sep. 4

Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture

282.7mm: mean one-month rainfall amount in September

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Kazeya

Establishment of "Emergency Warning"

Intensity level

(Precipitation etc.)

Advisory level

Advisory Advisory

Time

Warning Warning Emergency Warning Emergency Warning

Once in 50 years level

Disaster Serious Disaster Serious disasters may happen Serious Disasters (Higher possibility)

Warning level

Serious disasters will most probably happen Disasters may happen

Emergency Warning is issued when JMA expects the precipitation amount of statistically estimated once in 50 years.

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9月の月降水量の 平年値 282.7mm

0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00 0： 00 12： 00

Heavy Rain Advisory Heavy Rain Warning

Sediment Disaster

Expected Timing of Issuance of Emgency Warning

1 hour rainfall amount Cumulative rainfall amount

Sediment Disaster Alert

1 hour rainfall amount (mm) Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)

• Aug. 31
• Sep. 1
• Sep. 2
• Sep. 3
• Sep. 4

Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture

282.7mm: mean one-month rainfall amount in September

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Heavy Rain Emg Warning

Kazeya

100 200 300 10 20 30 40 50

0時 3時 6時 9時 12時 15時 18時 21時 24時 3時 6時 9時 12時

1時間降水量（

ミ リ ） 積算降水量（ ミ リ ）

1 hour rainfall amount (mm) Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)

Otsu, Shiga prefecture

Advisory 13:54, 15 Sep

Emgency Warning during the Typhoon Man-yi in 2013

Emgency Warning Warning Advisory No Warning / Advisory

Warning 18:48, 15 Sep

1 hour rainfall (mm) Cumulative rainfall (mm)

100km 19

• Emg. Warning

05： 05, 16 Sep

Press briefing

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Categories of Weather Warnings

Summary of History on our Improvement 2 grades information --- advisory, warning 2004: 10 typhoons hit Japan After 2004: Restructuring of warning

Lesson: Warnings need to connect to action

 warning zones be set as city, town and village areas  warning criteria be consistent with the criteria of evacuation order

2011: Unprecedented rainfall by typhoon Talas

Lesson: Effective message in emergency situation.

2013: Emergency warning launched Our efforts will continue forever so that the warnings save people from natural disasters more effectively!

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Public Awareness & Cooperation with other Organizations

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Public Awareness

 Leaflets  Movies  Workshop / events

Cooperation

 Consensus on warning criteria

Warning criteria are fixed under the consensus through the discussion with municipalities concerned.

 Education  Personnel exchange

JMA exchanges personnel with other national and municipal governments related to disaster management.

 Joint information

JMA issues flood forecasts jointly with the river administrators, namely, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or prefectural governments. Sediment disaster alerts are also issued jointly by JMA and prefectural governments. Lecture at schools Cooperation with the Japanese Red Cross Society

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Thank you