early indicators Stefan Szymanski Department of Kinesiology - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Economics of London 2012: some early indicators

Stefan Szymanski Department of Kinesiology University of Michigan

London’s Olympic commitments

• From the outset, London put legacy at the heart of the bid and made an early

commitment to delivering on key objectives

• to make London a world-leading sporting nation
• to transform the heart of East London
• to inspire a generation of young people
• to make the Olympic Park a blueprint for sustainable living
• to demonstrate the UK is a creative, inclusive and welcoming place to live in, visit

and for business.

East London and Olympic Park legacy

• Classic inner city blight- decline of traditional industries
• Poor communication links
• Low quality housing stock
• Low quality services- health and education
• Poorly qualified workforce, low employment
• Social problems
• High population turnover- inward and outward migration

The scale of the problem

• The population of East London is around 2 million
• East London covers of around over 500 sq. kilometres

(depending on definition)

• The Olympic Park covers an area of about 2.5 sq.

kilometres

• Employment in the Olympic Park is expected to be

around 8-10,000; it is expected to provide 11,000 new homes

Olympic site

97.8 96.1 103.9 97.4 101.1 122.3 97.7 151.9 139.6 113.3 81.4 82.0 126.3 67.1 107.0 112.3 103.5 149.2 98.8 167.5 104.4 163.7 81.8 90.7 110.4 141.4 124.7 128.4 101.6 147.6 96.1 118.4

Employment levels by London Borough

4947 2653 5451 2509 2114 5610 6575 5664 4839 5275 6711 5000 3593 1859 953 1991 1709 994 2253 1936 2776 4778 2196 1580 1972 6607 1078 7689 2013 1702 3248 1440

Employment per square kilometre

Growth rates

• f

employment in London boroughs

Borough Average annual growth rate of employment 2000- 2010 Average annual growth rate of employment 2005- 2010 Hackney (host) 2.91 5.66 Tower Hamlets (host) 2.42 4.39 Southwark 2.60 3.31 Lambeth 2.64 3.15 Camden 3.83 3.04 Islington 2.68 2.63 Hounslow 1.20 1.70 Westminster 3.94 1.53 Richmond upon Thames 1.78 1.47 Wandsworth 1.80 1.47 Brent 0.93 1.40 Sutton 0.18 1.35 Merton 0.84 1.17 Kingston upon Thames 1.86 1.11 Barking and Dagenham 0.17 1.05 Waltham Forest (host) 0.14 0.97 Greenwich (host) 0.85 0.86 Hillingdon 0.47 0.80 Kensington and Chelsea 2.76 0.75 Newham (host) 1.48 0.74 Bromley 0.86 0.66 Croydon 1.04 0.48 Barnet 0.04 0.20 Harrow 0.46 0.16 Havering

• 0.28

0.15 Lewisham 1.48 0.02 Haringey 0.44

• 0.21

Hammersmith and Fulham 1.45

• 0.27

Redbridge 0.48

• 0.59

Bexley 0.34

• 0.72

Enfield 0.12

• 0.78

Ealing 1.00

• 1.03

Non-Host London borough 1.25 0.88 Host boroughs 1.52 2.44

Changes in employment by sector 2005-2010

Greenwich Hackney Newham Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest host Non-host boroughs

Total 21,300 59,600 27,000 57,300 33,200 198,400 450,500 Manufacturing

• 5,000
• 6,600
• 2,300

6,900 3,100

• 3,900
• 15,500

Construction

• 16,200
• 5,000

6,800

• 1,900

7,000

• 9,300

69,000 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 9,700 4,300 6,600

• 3,200

12,500 29,900

• 148,400

Transport and communications 8,800

• 1,200
• 9,400

1,500

• 14,400
• 14,700
• 21,000

Banking, finance and insurance 36,200 32,300 9,500 29,400

• 14,700

92,700 290,900 Public administration, education and health

• 13,700

29,000 18,300 29,600 24,800 88,000 185,600 Other services 4,500

• 900
• 6,400
• 3,300

5,900

• 200

14,000

Pre-games estimate of impact?

• Infrastructure will raise the level of amenities
• Buyers in the housing market will anticipate

effects

• Kavetsos (2009) examined the impact of the

Olympic announcement on property prices

• Estimates derived for properties in concentric

rings around the Olympic site

+5% +2% +2.2%

6 miles 12 miles 18 miles

Impact on property prices

Source: Kavetsos (2009)

Impact on property prices and the host boroughs Economic value of impact = £1.4 billion

Source: Kavetsos (2009)