Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 e s a e l e R MNC-I BUA Intel Daily Slides r o f d e v Nov 07 o r p p A
CONFIDENTIAL//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171101// Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, Upcoming Iraq Neighbors Conference For display only to IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 in Istanbul e • (U) Scheduled for 2-3 Nov, FM from Iraq ’ s s neighbors, reps from UNSC-5 + SG, and a G-8 to attend e • (U) Likely topics include: l e (U) Strengthening effort of 3 working – R groups established at May session (U) Refugees and internally displaced persons • r (U) Border security o • (U) Energy f • d (U) (U) Stability and reconciliation in Iraq – e (U) PM Maliki addresses Baghdad (U) UNSG ’ s proposal to open a center for – Neighbors Meeting, Sep 07 v national Iraqi reconciliation in Baghdad o (U) Crisis over potential for Turkish CBO – r (U) Concerns over ‘ semi-independence ’ of Iraqi Kurds p – p • (U) FM Zebari – “ This meeting is very important and should not be hijacked by the current tension and crisis over the [KGK] terrorist activities in Turkey. ” A 1.4b, 1.4d CONFIDENTIAL//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171101// 2 For display only to IRQ
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171101 For Display Only to Iraq USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 HP Attack Density in Baghdad – AQI Peak to Present e s Nov 2006 Oct 2007 a e l e R r o f d Legend e Most v Dense o r p Least p Dense A Assessment: The frequency and effectiveness of AQI’s trademark high -profile attacks have been degraded in the capital since peak of activity in Nov 2006. However, AQI has repeatedly proven resilient and a sustained level of targeted pressure will be required to prevent a re- emergence. SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171101 3 For Display Only to Iraq
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171102// For display only to IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 Sadr Back In Iran e s a • Muqtada al-Sadr returns to Iran for e unspecified reasons l e – Reportedly left in late October R – Third trip to Iran in ’ 07 r o – Initially planned to return in mid October f d e v (U) • OMS office opening in Qom o r p p A Assessment : While motivation for Sadr’s return remains unknown, he may intend to pursue religious studies more seriously. Due to steadily increasing pressures from the Shi’a populace, Sadr may realize importance of solidifying his religious credentials to further back his lineage and enhance his current position. SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171102// 4 For display only to IRQ
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET SENSITIVE//FOR DISPLAY ONLY TO MCFI, IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 Ocalan and Erdal’s Conflicting Message e s a e l (b)(6) e R (U) r Abdullah Ocalan o f d e v o r (U) p p Bahoz Erdal A 1.4b, 1.4d 5 SECRET SENSITIVE//FOR DISPLAY ONLY TO MCFI, IRQ
Iran / Iraq Electricity Project Moves Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171103// For display only to IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 Forward • (U) Iran has repeatedly offered to help e (S//REL IRQ) provide electric power service s a – (U) Iran currently exports an average of e 90-125 MW to Diyala via a 154-kV l e transmission line R • (S//REL IRQ) Iran and Iraq agreed to build a r 70-km 400-kV transmission line from o Abadan, IR to Hartha, IZ f d – (S//REL IRQ) Line in Iran complete; last 20-30 e km in Iraq stalled, June 2007 due to mine fields v – (U) The deputy governor of Basrah Province o (U) The Hartha to Abadan 400-kV line r announced in October that an Iranian group p will clear the mine fields p – (U) When completed the project will carry about 200 MW to Basrah Province A 1.4b, 1.4d 6 SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171103// For display only to IRQ
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171104// For display only to IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Continued Attacks on MG Jalil Declassified on: 201505 e • Attacks targeting Basrah PDoP MG Jalil s a – Jalil ’ s vehicle attacked by SAF e on 24 Oct l e – Convoy attacked with IED on 3 R Nov r • Trouble with the Basrah o Provincial Council f d – Council voted unanimously to remove Jalil e v – MoI confirms Jalil as permanent o PDoP r p – Post-Ramadan crackdown on p JAM likely spurred retaliation attacks against Jalil A Assessment: Jalil will continue to be targeted by political opposition and criminal elements within Basrah as he maintains his focus on removing sectarian actors from within the police force and improving security within the city. SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171104// 7 For display only to IRQ
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171104// For Display Only To Iraq USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 JAM Focusing on Social Issues e s • OMS/JAM officials met in Najaf late Oct, a pass bylaw pertaining to al-Mahdi e activities in Iraq Baghdad l e – Freeze in JAM operations would remain in R affect until April 2008 r Beyond Apr 2008, expected to forfeit militia • o responsibilities and focus on social and cultural organization similar to Badr f Najaf d – JAM members expected to go through e religious education curriculum v – JAM surveillance and interrogation o departments eliminated (U) r p p A 1.4b, 1.4d SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171104// 8 For Display Only To Iraq
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171105// Response to Iran’s Nuclear Program For Display Only to Iraq USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 Talks in London • (U) Tougher sanctions? e – US, UK, France, Russia, China & Germany s ◦ Meet again 19 Nov to assess IAEA report a ◦ May agree to push ahead with third round of e tougher sanctions l e • (U) Alternative plan R Prince Saud al-Faisal said he hoped – GCC proposed “ consortium ” compromise US and Iran would support the planned consortium [AP] ◦ Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia r & UAE would develop uranium enrichment o plant in state outside of the Middle East – f perhaps Switzerland d • (U) IAEA – new report in mid-November 07 e – Has Iran answered all the questions about its v nuclear activities? o Iranian & UN Officials • (U) Ahmadinejad issues general threat r begin new talks in Tehran p – “ If you want to cooperate with our p enemy, we won ’ t be able to react in A a friendly manner any more …” President Ahmadinejad 1.4b, 1.4d SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171105// 9 For Display Only to Iraq
CONFIDENTIAL//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171106// Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, For display only to IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 OIC Office in Baghdad e • (U) Organization of the Islamic Conference s plans to open first office in Baghdad a – Office to be headed by ambassador e l – High-level delegation visit also planned e R • (U) Secretary General Ihsanoglu- OIC SG r – “ What is going on [in Iraq] in the name of Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu o religion, has nothing to do with religion ” f • (U) Newly established OIC Ministerial Contact d Group on Iraq e v – Visibly increase contribution to peace and o stability efforts in Iraq r p • (U) OIC initiative to hold second round of p National Reconciliation Conference in Mecca. Organization of the A Islamic Conference (C//REL) Assessment: OIC sponsored Mecca Declaration in 2006 demanded end to sectarian feuds. GoI pushing for greater security cooperation from neighbors and international community. Favorable security situation in Baghdad opening door to increased cooperation and international engagement. CONFIDENTIAL//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171106// 10 For display only to IRQ
Declassified by: MG Michael X. Garrett, SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171106// For Display Only to IRQ USCENTCOM Chief of Staff Declassified on: 201505 Sunni Resistance Response to UBL Speech e s • Insurgency quick to respond to UBL ’ s speech a in which he admitted the Iraqi jihad had made e mistakes and urged insurgent unity l e • Political Council for the Iraqi Resistance (PCIR) R – Call to insurgents to correct mistakes and unify r o – Does not rule out unification with AQI in the future f • Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) d Groups in the PCIR e – Mistakes on the ground dissipated jihad action, v contributed to formation of ‘ awakening councils ’ o – Positive changes on the ground would occur if r p mistakes are rectified p AMS logo A Assessment : UBL’s speech will have limited effect on the insurgency. Although insurgent unification remains pervasive theme, AQI is not welcome to join without major overhaul of their tactics. The AMS will continue to publicly promote CF as greater enemy than AQI. SECRET//REL TO USA, MCFI//20171106// 11 For Display Only to IRQ
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