Draft Transport Strategy Contents 1. TfSE Background 2. Our Region - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Draft Transport Strategy

• 1. TfSE Background
• 2. Our Region: characteristics and challenges
• 3. Our Approach : how the Transport Strategy was

developed 4.Our Vision: Vision, Goals, Priorities and Principles

• 5. Our Strategy: presented as Six Journey Types

6.Next Steps: future work programme & public consultation exercise

Contents

Part 1 TfSE Background

A motor for the UK economy

Our mission

Grow the South East’s economy by delivering a safe, sustainable, and integrated transport system that makes the South East area more productive and competitive, improves the quality of life for all residents, and protects and enhances its natural and built environment.

Economy Society Environment

• Permanence and longevity
• Influence over SoS investment plans for road and rail
• Regional transport strategy to ensure better coordination
• f transport arrangements across boundaries
• Seeking concurrent powers with local transport

authorities – not removing any powers

• Concurrent powers only to be exercised with consent

from the local authorities concerned

Achieving statutory status

Part 2 Our Region

Strategic Corridors

Our Environment

Tough choices

Priority industrial sectors in the South East area

IT

Advanced Engineering & Manufacturing

Transport & Logistics

Priority industrial sectors

Finance & Professional Services Marine Maritime & Defence

Lo Creative Tourism Low Carbon

Forecast employment growth in the South East area by 2041 (Source: ONS)

Employment growth forecast

Forecast housing growth in the South East area by 2041 (Source: ONS)

Housing growth forecast

Deprivation

Road network congestion

Part 3 Our Approach

GVA

£183bn

Today

Population

7.8m

Employment

3.3m

Trips

20.9m

80%

2% 7% 3% 8%

70% 5% 4% 21% Current split of movement types

Current indicators based on the Department for Transport’s National Trip End Model

Within TfSE Other to TfSE TfSE to Other

Includes walking

London to TfSE TfSE to London

Current mode share

Vehicle Miles Forecasts (England and Wales) Range from 17% to 51% increase

119% GVA

£217bn

Business As Usual (2050)

12% Population

968k

12% Employment

402k

15% Trips

3.08m

+11% +24% +42% +29% +22%

19% 30% 27% –6% Change in trips by mode Change by movement type

Change by key indicator

Within TfSE London to TfSE TfSE to London Other to TfSE TfSE to Other

Forecast traffic growth to 2050

Planning for People

Time Number of motor vehicles

Our approach – strategy direction

Our approach - plan & provide

Scenario forecasting

Possible futures

Time Scenario Development

Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 4

Plausible futures

The Year 2050

Scenario 1: The London Hub Higher than expected growth in London with the South East becoming a dormitory for London

• Higher population growth
• Increased housing stock
• Lower productivity growth
• Increased radial travel

Scenario 3: Route to Growth

The South East makes more of its unique assets, becoming more specialised and locally focussed?

• More local employment
• Growth of priority sectors
• Slightly higher population growth
• Increased cross-regional travel

Scenario 2: Digital Future

Digital transformation at a faster rate

• Convenience driven tech-solutions
• Highly productive economy
• Labour market disruption
• Less need for business travel
• Faster adoption of CAVs

Scenario 4: Sustainable Future

Increased focus on environmental sustainability

• Lower levels of productivity-led growth
• Shift away from heavy industry
• Focus on protecting the environment
• Reduced inequality
• Demand Management policies

Scenario Population Employment GVA Trips

BaU

8.6m 3.7m £399bn 24.0m 9.7m 3.9m £430bn 26.6m 8.5m 3.7m £411bn 24.2m 9.1m 4.3m £481bn 26.4m 8.6m 3.7m £404bn 23.1m

Scenario Results

Scenario 1: The London Hub Higher than expected growth in London with the South East becoming a dormitory for London

• Higher population growth
• Increased housing stock
• Lower productivity growth
• Increased radial travel

Scenario 3: Route to Growth

The South East makes more of its unique assets, becoming more specialised and locally focussed?

• More local employment
• Growth of priority sectors
• Slightly higher population growth
• Increased cross-regional travel

Scenario 2: Digital Future

Digital transformation at a faster rate

• Convenience driven tech-solutions
• Highly productive economy
• Labour market disruption
• Less need for business travel
• Faster adoption of CAVs

Scenario 4: Sustainable Future

Increased focus on environmental sustainability

• Lower levels of productivity-led growth
• Shift away from heavy industry
• Focus on protecting the environment
• Reduced inequality
• Demand Management policies

A Sustainable Route to Growth

• Reduced inequality
• More local employment
• Growth of priority sectors
• Highly productive economy
• Focus on protecting and

enhancing the environment

• Investment in sustainable

transport to support cross- regional travel

• Demand management policies
• Faster adoption of digital

technology and CAVs

• Less need for business travel

Sustainable Route to Growth

+4% +47% +4% – 14% +1%

–9% 120% 108% –7%

Change in trips by mode Change by movement type 15%

+£59bn

GVA Change compared to Business as Usual (2050) 4%

+912k

Employment Trips 13%

+474k 8.7m 24.0m £399bn 3.7m

BAU 2050 1%

+91k

Population

Within TfSE London to TfSE TfSE to London Other to TfSE TfSE to Other

Part 4 Our Vision

Our Vision

Vision Strategic Goals Strategic Priorities Describes our preferred future Describes the goals we need to achieve to realise our preferred future The mechanisms and outcomes required to achieve our goals Principles Describes the principles we will apply to implement our strategy

Vision

A Sustainable Route to Growth “By 2050, the South East of England will be a leading global region for net-zero carbon, sustainable economic growth where integrated transport, digital and energy networks have delivered a step change in connectivity and environmental quality. “A high-quality, reliable, safe and accessible transport network will offer seamless door-to-door journeys enabling our businesses to compete and trade more effectively in the global marketplace and giving our residents and visitors the highest quality of life.”

Improve productivity to grow our economy and better compete in the global marketplace. Improve health, and wellbeing, safety, quality

• f life, and access to
• pportunities for

everyone. Protect and enhance the South East’s unique natural, built and historic environment and tackle climate change together

Economic Social Environmental

Goals

Priorities

Integrated planning

Digital & travel demand management

Connectivity & journey times Reliability Resilience

Economic Social

Safety Affordability & accessibility Air quality Integration

CO2

Environmental

Reduced need for travel

Minimal resource consumption

Protected and enhanced environment

Zero carbon Biodiversity net gain Health, wellbeing & quality of life

Principles

Achieving Environmental Sustainability Economic Growth, but not at any cost

Putting the User at the Heart

• f the Transport System

Planning Regionally for the Short, Medium and Long Term

Planning for Successful Places

International Gateways & Freight

Future Journeys Local Journeys

Orbital and Coastal Journeys

Radial Journeys Inter-urban Journeys

Part 5 Our Strategy

Centred on Six Journey Types

Radial journeys Orbital and coastal journeys Inter- urban journeys Local journeys

International Gateways and freight journeys

Future journeys

Radial Opportunity

Radial

Potential Isle of Grain passenger services Potential Crossrail 1 extension Potential extension of HS1 services Poor Connectivity

• n A21/Hastings

Line Corridor Potential future Crossrail 2 Island Line Renewal Crossrail South West Main Line capacity Potential to improve journey times to North East Kent A21 A23 A3 A2 A299 M3 M2 M20 A303 A20 M4 Brighton Bognor Regis Littlehampton Newhaven Eastbourne Hastings Ashford Maidstone Dover Ramsgate Ryde Shanklin Southampton Portsmouth Alton Basingstoke Guildford Woking Horsham East Grinstead Uckfield Medway Towns Faversham Ebbsfleet Dartford Heathrow Reading LONDON Gatwick East Croydon Journey times on Reading – Waterloo rail services Long journey times to Maidstone M23 Brighton Mainline Improvement Programme Radial Motorway Radial Dual Carriageway Road Radial Single Carriageway Road

Legend

Radial Railway Radial Opportunity Radial Issue Crossrail M3

Orbital and Coastal

Lower Thames Crossing A27 M27 A34 M25 A259 A31 A36 A33 A31 A34 A249 A339 A26 A256 A322 A325 A322 A331 A404 A2070 A229 A228 East Coastway Line Medway Valley Line Heathrow Ryde Portsmouth Cowes Newhaven Brighton Dover Ramsgate Sheerness Thamesport Chatham Southampton Airport Reading Guildford Shoreham Hastings Gatwick Airport Opportunity for alternative M3/M4 link (avoiding Bracknell) A28 Southampton Slow journey times on coastal rail routes A27 Orbital Motorway Orbital Dual Carriageway Road

Legend

Orbital Railway Orbital Issue Radial Corridor

Interurban & Local

Freight & International Gateways

Lower Thames Crossing Western Rail Access to Heathrow Southern Rail Access to Heathrow Cross Channel Rail freight Opportunities? M25 M23 M4 M2 M20 A20 A299 A249 M27 M3 A34 A3 A23 Ryde Port of Southampton Portsmouth Cowes Shoreham Newhaven Gatwick Airport Heathrow Airport Reading LONDON Guildford Brighton Ashford Dover Ramsgate Sheerness Thamesport Chatham Ebbsfleet Southampton Airport M2/M20 Junction improvements A229 M3/A34 Junction Improvements Woking Basingstoke Southampton Port expansion Dover Port Access (and rail gauge) A2 Longer term solution for Operation Stack and lorry parking Potential future Gatwick – Ashford/ Medway rail services Brighton Mainline Improvement Programme Motorway Dual Carriageway Single Carriageway Railway

Legend

Opportunity Key Junction

Future Journeys

Challenges Responses

1. Gaps in electric and digital infrastructure

• 2. Risk some parts of the South

East will be ‘left behind’

• 3. Risk new technologies may

undermine walking, cycling and public transport

• 4. Risk new technologies may

lead to further fragmentation

• 5. Alternative fuel vehicles will

not solve congestion 1. Future proof electric and digital infrastructure (standards, etc)

• 2. Incorporate Mobility As A Service

into public transport networks

• 3. Encourage consistency in roll out of

smart ticketing systems

• 4. Develop Future Mobility Strategy

for the South East

Part 6 Next Steps

Economic Connectivity Review Public Consultation Final Strategy

Area Studies Tranche 1

July 2018 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 March 2020 Sept 2020 March 2021 Sept 2021

SIP

Transport Strategy Development

Thematic Studies

Freight Strategy Future Mobility Strategy Area Studies Tranche 2

Transport Strategy Routemap

(Strategic Investment Plan)

Area Studies (Radial)

Radial Area Studies

South West South Central South East

Area Studies (Orbital)

Orbital Area Studies

Inner Orbital Outer Orbital

1. Draft Transport Strategy and consultation questionnaire available online tfse.org.uk/transport-strategy

• 2. Deadline for responses - 10 January 2020
• 3. Five regional consultation events (16 -24 October)
• 4. Final Transport Strategy published April 2020

We need your views