Development cycle Climate change changing world contours Climate - - PDF document

Cereal system Initiative for South Asia

CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE – a

climate friendly approach

• Dr. M. Aqil Khan

Country Coordinator IRRI-CIMMYT, Pakistan

• 1. Agricultural situation
• 2. Climate change scenario
• 3. Agricultural options
• 4. CSISA role & partnership
• Knowledge banks, -CKB -HCP

Climate change changing world contours Climate change changing world contours

• Population (9b in 2050)
• Industrialization
• Agriculture and its input use
• Globalization and market integration
• Consumerism

Resource base exploitation/deterioration

Development cycle

Anthropogenic effects more Anthropogenic effects more pronounced today pronounced today

‐ ‐ CO CO2

2 values up from 280 to 390 ppm

values up from 280 to 390 ppm ‐ ‐ Emission up 31%, projection Emission up 31%, projection ≈ ≈ 2ppm Year 2ppm Year‐

‐1 1

‐ ‐ Earth temperature up 0.74 Earth temperature up 0.74 ˚ ˚C C ‐ ‐ Poised to increase 2.4 Poised to increase 2.4 ˚ ˚C C ‐ ‐ Decreasing water availability Decreasing water availability ‐ ‐ Receding Himalayan glaciers (20% ) Receding Himalayan glaciers (20% ) ‐ ‐ Vanishing poles (100 k Vanishing poles (100 km3/year) )

Climate change causes GHGs

• 1. Water vapors (33‐66%GHGs)
• 2. CO2 (9‐26%)
• 3. Methane x20(4‐9%)
• 4. N2O x298
• 5. O3 x25
• 6. CFCs

Increasing CO2 concentration in atmosphere

Global anthropogenic carbon emission

Carbon footprint of wheat crop in Pakistan

Operation Fuel used (m.lit.) CO2 prod. (m.tons) 2010 2020 2010 2020 Cultivation 484.64 530.4 1.31 1.43 Sowing 78.17 85.5 0.21 0.23

• Herb. App. 27.45

30.0 0.08 0.08 Threshing 134 146.6 0.36 0.40 Total 724.3 792.6 1.96 2.14

CO2 and solar radiation

Global temperature changes. Left: 1880-89. Right: 2000-09. NASA conducted the analysis using ship-based and satellite observations of sea-surface temperature, and data from Antarctic research stations and 6,300 meteorological stations around the world. Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 0.7 °C (1.3 °F) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20 °C per decade. Credit: NASA GISS. Courtesy of the NASA Earth Observatory and Mike Carlowicz.

“The frequency, and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth’s climate changes.” (IPCC, 2007)

How can crops adapt to:

• Heat waves?
• Delayed rains?
• Temporary flooding?
• Combinations of stresses?

Challenge

• At our current rate of consumption, human

require equivalent of 1.4 planet to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste. As greenhouse gas emissions increase along with

• ur rate of consumption, the situation will

worsen.

Reduce consumption we have one planet.

Rising world population

9.1 7.7 5.3 6.1 2 4 6 8 10 1990 2000 2020 2050 Year Population (billions)

108 137.5 211.4 267.8 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 2000 2020 2050 Population (Millions) Year

Population trends in Pakistan

0.42 0.29 0.24 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.18

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2010 2020 h a P e r C a p ita

Dwindling land for agriculture

Demand for cereals will double by 2050

Sorgum 8% Millet 8% Cassava 4% Potato 2%

Rice 34% (149 M ha) Wheat 23% (99 M ha) Maize 21% (94 M ha)

Area sown to staples in developing countries

* Human needs+ 10 % seed and feed requirements Year Population (million) *Wheat Required (m. ton) Yield (t/ha) Area Need (000 ha) Area released (000 ha) 2010 173.5 22.90 2.6 9042

• 2015

205.5 27.13 3.5 7750 1292 2020 226.2 29.86 4.0 7464 1578 2025 246.3 32.51 4.3 7560 1482 2030 265.6 35.07 4.6 7624 1418

Projected population and wheat requirement

Challenge to Food Security Production vs. Consumption

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Total Production Total Consumption Human Animal Surplus OThers

• Mil. T.

Rising temperatures and crop production

• Land reclassification by 2050
• 1 ˚C rise would mean ≈ 7 % wheat yield loss
• 1 ˚C rise would mean ≈10% yield loss in rice
• 44% yield loss in rainfed wheat yield
• Significant pests, pathogen and weeds

changes

• Deleterious effects on grain quality and

nutrients

• 3 IPCC Climate Models
• Increasing Heat Stress (wheat)
• 17‐38% Reduction in High Potential Zone

Per capita water availability m3/year/person, Pakistan

PER CAPI TA WATER AVAI LABI LI TY VS POPULATI ON GROWTH

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

1951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2000 2003 2012 2020

Per Capita Water availability (In Cubic meter) 50 100 150 200 250 Population (In Millions)

Population Water

Parameters/Years 1951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2000 2003 2012 2020 Water availability Per Capita 5650 4000 2800 1900 1700 1400 1200 1000 885 Population 33.7 42.8 65.3 84.2 132.0 140.0 149.0 176.0 216.8 Water scarcity level: 1700 CM /capita

A disappearing Arctic ice cap Time, December 6, 2010

7.0 m sq km 4.9 m sq km

Future scenario

• Challenges
• Compulsions
• Approaches

Present day agriculture would not be the answer to emerging situation

Higher population Higher food demand Higher temperatures Less water Scarce & costly inputs

• A skewed agricultural

situation

New guiding philosophy

More with less Save as we grow prosperity for all more production more income better health Translated into actionable propositions it means:

• Increased food availability
• Reduce cost of crop production
• Maintain momentum of growth
• Promote biodiversity
• Eliminate poverty
• Conserve environment
• Soil, water and air
• Reduce energy use

Achievable by: Deployment of innovative combination of factors of production using CA platform

Solutions

• Simple
• Cheap
• Effective

Conservation Agriculture

Resource saving crop production practices which aim at:

• Sustainable high production
• Crop/system profitability
• Natural forces enhancement
• Input optimization
• Resource conservation

CA (climate smart agriculture) ‐

‐ Integrates agri. technology with environment management by promoting:

• Crop rotation
• Maintaining soil cover
• Minimum soil disturbance

‐ improves rain infiltration, reduces erosion and water requirement upto 30%, improves drought tolerance

Promotes diverse and healthy produce Reduces tilling/plowing, cost of production and fuel consumption

Integrated Crop and Resource Management “Ecological crop Intensification”

Crop Management NRM

Productivity with optimal CA based RCTS for efficient external inputs use of natural resources Cultivars Fertilizer Pesticides Labor Energy Land leveling Tillage & crop est. Residue management Water incl. Rain Water Climate and soils

Profitabl e cropping system

Conservation agriculture

RC technologies

‐ Laser leveling

‐ Zero till

‐ Bed planting ‐ DSR ‐ Controlled irrigation management in rice ‐ SSNM ‐ Balanced /efficient fertilizer use ‐ Residue management ‐ Increased cropping intensity/diversity ‐ New seed/cultivars

RC technologies

• Laser land leveling
• Direct seeded rice
• Unpuddled transplanted rice
• Reduced tillage (i.e. strip tillage or fewer tillage passes)
• Zero tillage
• Raised bed planting
• Increased application rates of fertilizer
• Decreased application rates of fertilizer
• Application of micro‐nutrients
• Liming
• Improved weed management
• Increased irrigation frequency
• Decreased irrigation frequency
• Change in irrigation timing
• AWD ‐ alternating wetting and drying

RC technologies/cont.

• Increased cropping intensity (i.e. more crops per year)
• More cropping diversity (i.e. replacing existing crops with different crop types)
• New varieties of rice
• New varieties of wheat
• Improved post‐harvest storage
• Seed priming or treatment (fungicide, insecticide)
• Split applications of nitrogen
• Banded fertilizer application
• Deep placement of urea supergranules (USG)
• Leaf color chart
• Nutrient Manager software
• GreenSeeker sensor
• Brown manuring
• Stale seedbed

Laser leveling – tabletop fields

Eliminates high/low points Reduces irrigation times Saves water (≈ 20 %) Saves labor

Water use (m3 /ha) in wheat under precision and traditional land leveling Effect of laser land leveling on water use (m3 /ha) in raised bed planted wheat

0‐til planting

• No land preparation
• Cost saving
• Timely crop planting
• Builds soil organic matter
• Reduces compaction
• Promotes biodiversity
• Improves yield
• Environment friendly

Haryana, India Indian Punjab

Effect of Residues on Crop Production

Data of K. Sayre from central Mexico

Grain Yield (kg/ha)

2000 4000 6000 8000 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002

W‐M, ZT, +Res. W‐M, ZT, ‐Res. M‐M, ZT, +Res. M‐M, ZT, ‐Res. W‐M, CT, +Res. W‐M, CT, ‐Res.

World‐wide adoption of Zero‐tillage 2008 Millions of hectares Total = 105.9 million ha.

Australia 12.0 Ghana: 100.000 small farmers use NT Canada 13.5 USA 26.6 Brazil 25.5 Paraguay 2.4 Argentina 19.7 IGP 1.2 China 1.3 Based on Derpsch and Friedrich, 2009 Kazakhstan 1.2

Bed planting

• Water saving
• Improves crop establishment
• Reduces crop lodging
• Reduces disease incidence
• Improves yield
• Crop establishment in saline/sodic soils

Wheat in gypsum amended sodic soils

DSR and AWD in rice DSR

• Saves 75of planting cost
• 30 % water
• Reduce labor needs
• Reduce energy needs
• Optimal population

AWD

• Saves 30 % water

Weed management a challenge

ZTBP in operation

Bed planted wheat ZT wheat

ZT vs CP

Residue Management

• Moderates soil temperature
• Off‐set terminal heat stresses
• Minimizes unproductive loss of water through

evaporation

• Cooling effect on plants ( > 1C) – terminal heat stress

reduced

• Helps control weeds
• Improves soils quality
• Alternative for residue burning clean air
• Enhanced biodiversity
• Root penetration

Brown manuring

Extending resource use benefits

Soil Water Nutrients to enhance food availability and income and reduce cost Relay cropping of wheat in cotton (farmer field)

Relay cropping in cotton vs. CP

Cotton Res. Instt., Faisalabad

Mungbean relay planting in wheat

Soil compaction with rotavator

• Rotavator Blade Actions
• Rotavator actions – Rotavator has

Blades mounted on the rotar . These L shaped blades hit the soil surface at high speed (depending on machine RPMs > 700 times / min. The blade actions include a. cutting a soil slice ,

• b. Compacting and c. smearing actions

as shown in the picture. This creates a plow pan very close to the soil surface ( 16‐19cm) depending upon the blade lengths

Rotavator and Soil Compaction

A‐ Average of 600 observations from 3 districts in Punjab ; Konometer data refers to Max compaction ratings at 16‐19 cm depth 1Kpa (kilopascal)= 0.14504 Psi

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 R3 R2 R1 C ZTR Compaction (kPa)

Tillage options

B _ Data from Villagr Gunsar Kaunke where fields were subsoiled/ chiseled after 3 years

3220 2887 2241 1522 1491 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Compaction (kPa) R3 R2 R1 C ZTR SS Tillage options in Gurusar Kaunke

CA and field economy in wheat (2020)

CA Technology Area

(m. acres)

Fuel sav.

(m. liters)

Water sav.

(MAF)

Precision leveling 18.3 (75%) 4.87 0-til planting 3.9 (50%) 84.6 0.52 Bed planting 12.2 (50%) 4.88 Relay cropping 4.2 (50%) 91.3 Total 24.45 175.9 8.6

CA benefits

Economic

• Time saving
• Reduced labor
• Reduced cost

Agronomic

• Organic matter buildup
• In‐soil water conservation
• Soil structure improvement

Environmental

• Reduced erosion
• Improved water quality
• Improved air quality
• Biodiversity
• Carbon sequestration

Comparison of full and short season wheat varieties

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Oct.05 Nov.10 Nov.25 Dec.10 Dec.25 Jan.10 Full Short

Seed availability≈20%

‐Local seed leaders

YIELD LIMITING FACTORS

• Late planting
• Imbalanced fertilizer use – means/price/availability
• Weeds infestation
• Shortage of canal water
• Lack of proper machinery
• Non availability of quality Seed
• Small holding size

CSISA

Cereal System Initiative for South Asia

• A joint project of IRRI and CIMMYT
• Operating in Bangladesh, India,

Pakistan and Nepal

• Objectives – promote CA to fight

climate change, poverty and hunger

Managed by:

• International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
• International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

(CIMMYT)

Cereal Knowledge Bank

http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/default.htm

Country Knowledge Banks: Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India,

Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam

Extension: Effective communication ‐Creation of extension materials‐

Needs and Opportunities Assessment‐ farm management‐ Training manual‐ Working with farmers

E-Learning: Biological Control of Insect Pests‐ Grain Quality‐ Water

Management Course‐ Rice Breeding Course‐ Rice Production Course

Acronyms and glossary of rice terminology

What do you find in CKB?

• What the world is doing in cereals?
• Country Knowledge Banks
• Upload and download site
• Management factors at different growth stages
• Weed management strategies
• How to conserve the natural resources?
• How poor farmers can be uplifted to good growers?

E‐Learning Materials

• Biological Control of Insect Pests
• English for Agriculture workers
• E‐Learning for Development
• Grain Quality Course
• E‐Water Management Course
• Rice Breeding Course
• Rice Production Course

Rice/wheat/maize Seed to Market

Growth Stages Quality Seeds Agronomy Post Harvest Extras

Wheat Doctor Rice Doctor Maize Doctor

Additional sites

CSISA Knowledge Bank

http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/csisa.htm

Hub Specific Knowledge Bank

http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/csisabeta/index.php

Hub Communication Platform (HCP)

http://www.awhere.com/CSISA/Homepage.aspx

Combine effort of:

• CSISA
• Awhere Inc.

Weather Pin

• Maximum temperature
• Minimum temperature
• Precipitation
• Solar radiation
• Maximum daily wind
• Maximum morning wind
• Maximum relative humidity
• Minimum relative humidity

Local information

Plug in coordinates of a locality/field and

• Get previous 5 days met date
• 7 days forecast
• Likely insect/pathogen flare‐ups

‐ helps in planning field operations and plant protection measures

Pakistan AMAP‐ downloadable

Following information in map forms is available:

• Political (Admin, country)
• Demographic (populated places, urbanized points)
• Ecological ( grass type, crop land, tundra and marshland)
• Hydrographic (water points, water courses and inland water)
• Infrastructure (airports, transportation, mines, pipelines, rail

roads)

• Topographic (elevation points and contours)
• IWMI climate data (month wise precipitation, PET, min/max

temperature)

AWhere Map- Jan min. temperature

Make maps ‐ changes in water table depth

Per kg water use in selected crops

1 kg wheat 1 kg rice 1 kg maize 1kg Sugar cane 1350 L 3,000 – 5,000 L 900 L 170 L

3000 Cal Daily req. 30000 beaf cal 300 000 Corn Cal 30 000 000 Solar cal 1.5 acre corn

Thank you for your attention