Demography, Time and Space Martin Bell The University of Queensland - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Demography, Time and Space Martin Bell The University of Queensland - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Demography, Time and Space Martin Bell The University of Queensland WD Borrie Lecture Australian Population Association 2014 Conference Hobart , Tasmania Wednesday December 3rd 2014 Professor WD (Mick) Borrie CRICOS Provider No 00025B

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CRICOS Provider No 00025B

Demography, Time and Space

Martin Bell The University of Queensland

WD Borrie Lecture Australian Population Association 2014 Conference Hobart , Tasmania Wednesday December 3rd 2014 Professor WD (Mick) Borrie

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Demography Definition: The scientific study of population, with a

central focus on the size, distribution and composition of population, and the processes of population change.

Essence of a discipline:

  • Substantive focus
  • Theoretical constructs
  • Analytical methods
  • Data sources
  • Core problems
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Fissiparous (!)

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https://www.google.com.au/#q=fissiparous

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End of the Demographic Transition?

Source: van Dalen and Henkens 2012 DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.16

/

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  • Demography and Time
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Demographic Transition Theory

“…the central preoccupation of modern demography.”

Caldwell 1996

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Lexis Diagrams

  • Age-Time plan depicting the

relationship between age, period and birth cohort.

  • Age and time divided into

equal intervals

  • Lifelines show individual aging
  • Events fall into age time

intervals

  • Links population stocks and

flows

  • Framework for the assembly

and analysis of demographic data

Age Time t+1 a+1 t+2 t+3 a+3 a+2 a,t

Period-Age Period-Age Period- Cohort

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0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Age at peak migration Education completion, women Labour force entry, men Union formation, men First child, women

Age at Migration & Life Course Events

Source: Bernard, A., Bell, M. and Charles-Edwards, E. [2014]: Life-course transitions and the age profile of internal migration, Population and Development Review, 40(2): 213-239

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  • Demography and Space
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John Snow and the Soho cholera epidemic

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cc/John_Snow.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c

  • mmons/c/cb/John_Snow_memorial_a

nd_pub.jpg http://uuushh.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/on-the-mode-of-communication-of-cholera_john-snow_1855.jpg http://www.darpa.mil/uploadedImages/Content/NewsEvents/Releases/2014/London1854CholeraMapAlteredImage.jpg

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The European Fertility Project

Source: Woods, R. (1979): Population Analysis in Geography, Longman

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Problems with Spatial Aggregates Ecological Fallacy:

  • Making inferences about processes at the level of

individuals from analysis of data about the groups to which they belong

MAUP – Modifiable Areal Unit Problem:

  • Aggregated values vary according to (a) the

number of units into which a region is divided (scale effect) and (b) the way the boundaries are drawn (pattern effect)

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Four Domains of Spatial Demography

  • 1. Spatial differentiation
  • GWR, Spatial clustering, Moran’s ‘I’
  • 2. Modelling spatial diffusion
  • Event history, Multi-level regression
  • 3. Location/allocation modelling
  • Thiessen polygons, SIMs
  • 4. Areal estimation
  • Remote sensing, areal interpolation
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Estimating Population

Population Distribution; Cyprus

Source: Landscan

http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/images/cyprus2011.png

Population Density India

Source: CIESEN/GRUMP

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/maps/gallery

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Gridded Population Data 100m2

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West Africa

Source: Worldpop.org.uk

http://www.worldpop.org.uk/ebola/

Benin

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Example of aggregation: Germany

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412 BSUs 200 ASRs 150 ASRs 100 ASRs 50 ASRs 10 ASRs

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The MAUP and the MEI

Source: The IMAGE Project: see http://www.gpem.uq.edu.au/image

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Comparing Migration Effectiveness

Source: The IMAGE Project: see http://www.gpem.uq.edu.au/image

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  • Space-time convergence
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Global Migration Intensities

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One year intensities Fiver year intensities

1.0 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 10.1 10.3 10.7 10.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.3 15.4 16.0 17.0 17.6 19.1 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Macedonia Poland Russian Federation Slovenia Ukraine Croatia Slovakia Spain Cyprus Romania Burkina Faso Czech Republic Bulgaria Malta Estonia Portugal Italy Latvia Lithuania Belarus Ireland Israel Turkey Hungary Japan Austria Greece Colombia Sudan Germany Netherlands Belgium Switzerland UK Tanzania Denmark USA Sweden Norway Canada Kenya Zambia Finland Australia Iceland

ACMI (%) 5.2 5.4 6.1 6.3 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.5 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.9 11.2 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.5 18.1 18.1 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.4 22.9 26.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 31.0 32.9 34.0 34.7 36.1 36.2 37.1 38.5 41.3 42.4 44.3 52.8 54.7 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

India Egypt Mexico North Korea Mali Venezuela Nepal Iraq Spain Philippines Haiti Ecuador Nicaragua St Lucia Thailand Honduras Cuba Mauritius El Salvador Indonesia Vietnam China Portugal Dominican Republic Guatemala Ghana Tunisia Costa Rica Malaysia Argentina Brazil Greece Rwanda Cambodia Uganda Malta Morocco South Africa Guinea Uruguay Peru Kyrgyzstan Bolivia Barbados Mongolia Israel Japan Paraguay Cameroon France Senegal Switzerland Chile Panama Canada Fiji Australia USA South Korea New Zealand

ACMI (%) Source: The IMAGE Project: See Bell, M, Charles-Edwards, E, Ueffing, P., Stillwell, J., Kupiszewski, M. and Kupiszewska, D. [forthcoming]: Internal migration and development: comparing migration intensities around the world, http://www.gpem.uq.edu.au/image

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Space

Years Months Weeks Days Hours

Residential mobility Intra-urban Rural-urban Urban-rural Inter-regional Inter-urban Inter- national

Local Regional National

Spatial Boundaries

12 months 4 weeks 7 days 24 hours Local community Region Nation World

Time

Study Vacations Health care Seasonal work Business travel Long distance commuting Extended recreational travel Excursions Visits Commuting Shoppin g

Mobility in Space and Time

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  • Coupling Space and Time –

Mobility and Migration

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Tracking Mobility in West Africa

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Mobile Phone Flowmaps Source: http://www.worldpop.org.uk/ebola/

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Tracking Tourists in Noosa

See Charles-Edwards, E., Bell, M. & Corcoran, J. [2014]: Integrating undergraduate fieldwork into the study of human mobility, Australian Geographer, 45(4): 505-519 DOI:10.1080/00049182.2014.953734

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Tracking the St Lucia Campus Population

See: Charles-Edwards, E. and Bell, M. [2013]: ‘Estimating the service population of a large metropolitan university campus’, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 6(3): 209-228 DOI 10.1007/s12061-012-9079-y

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Space-Timelines : Daily Activity Patterns

Source: Parkes and Thrift (1980) : Times, Spaces, and Places: A Chronogeographic Perspective, Wiley, New York

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Capturing Life-Spaces

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Defining Life Spaces

Source: Lelievre & Robette 2010

Source: Hagerstrand Figure 11 in Carlstein, Parkes and Thrift (1978) : Timing Space and Spacing Time Lelievre, E. and Robette, N (2010) A Life Space Perspective to Approach Individual Demographic Processes, Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 37.1-2: 207-244

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Demography, Space & Time

  • Conclusions