Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Elizabeth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2016 www.colorado.gov/demography

Transitions

Population and Economic Trends for Colorado

Big Pict ure - 2014-2015 Pop Change

• US – 321.4 million, + 3.4 million or .79%
• Colorado - 5,456,500
• Ranked 2nd fastest 1.9%- ND,
• 7th absolute growth 101,000 – TX, FL, CA,

GA,WA, NC

• Range in Colorado
• +15,000 to -400
• +5% to -3.5%

Source: State Demography Office

State Demography Office v2014

Millennial

Forecast

Median Home Value

Forecast s –Trends –Housing

• Growth in race/ethnic diversity –

especially at the young end.

• Growth in Young and Aging
• Growth in both high and low end

service jobs.

• Demographically Challenged Income
• Growth Constraints? (costs, water)

Census Bureau

Why Are We Get t ing Old Fast ?

• Currently very few people over the age 65.
• 4th lowest share of all states in US (10%)
• Baby Boomers
• Born 1946 – 1964
• 1,340,000 Boomers in Colorado (26% of pop. in 2010)
• By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 125%

larger than it was in 2010 growing from 555,000 to 1,243,000. (just from aging)

• Transition age distribution from “young” to more

US average between 2010 and 2030.

State Demography Office, Census Bureau

Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend

AGE

Aging Issues –t o name a few

• Numbers – both total change and %
• Economy
• Labor Force
• Housing
• Income
• Health/Disabilities
• Transportation
• Public Finance

Housing and Household Trends

• Retirees – will they stay or go? – where will

they go? Migration?

• 38% of households over 65 are living alone
• Households at risk –especially single older

women.

• Type of housing – demand by age.
• Location choice related to amenities, health

services, transportation services, costs.

• Workers vs. non workers
• Challenge in tight housing market.
• More people at home during the day.

Households By Age

Source: Census Bureau (1990, 2000) and State Demography Office (2010-2030) March 2011

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

18-24 25-44 45-64 65 & Over

More Housing

125,000 more HU than HH 128,000 more HH than HU

Colorado Movers and Ownership By Age

Lived in Same House 1 year Ago By Age 20 to 24 56.0% 25 to 29 61.8% 30 to 34 73.4% 35 to 39 78.8% 40 to 44 83.5% 45 to 49 86.2% 50 to 54 88.4% 55 to 59 90.0% 60 to 64 91.0% 65 to 69 93.0% 70 to 74 93.4% 75 and over 91.9% Home Ownership by Age of Householder 15 to 24 years 15.2% 25 to 34 years 43.8% 35 to 44 years 65.2% 45 to 54 years 73.9% 55 to 59 years 78.7% 60 to 64 years 81.0% 65 to 74 years 82.2% 75 to 84 years 78.9% 85 years and over 62.8% Source: ACS 1 year 2014

Income

Household Income… .it s fut ure is demographically challenged.

• Age distributions – “End of “Demographic

Dividend”

• Occupational Mix – high and low service
• More race/ethnicity diverse especially at

young end but achievement gap is growing as well.

• Household type and size – single and

smaller.

• Youth un and under employment - Long

term permanent impacts on earnings.

State Demography Office

Take Aways

• Will Colorado maintain its economic and

amenity advantages?

• Everyone competing for best and brightest.
• Aging – changing the economy and housing.
• Households growing faster than housing

units.

• Future Demand For Housing
• Downward Pressure on Income
• Age Impact – both older end as well as Millennials
• More racially/ethnically diverse
• Watch Household Formation
• Watch Colorado’s relative unemployment

Thank you

State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.Garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 www.colorado.gov/demography