AMERICAS CROSSROADS Demography: Shifting Source: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

04.22.19

DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMY, AND SAN DIEGO’S FUTURE

Edward Muna

@PERE_USC

 Demography: Shifting

demography changing future possibilities–but persistent racial disparities

 Economy: Emerging as a

center of the innovation economy with new businesses in bio-tech–but sharp inequalities

 Geography: Positioning as a

binational mega-region to promote global trade, production, and tourism–but divided

Source: http://www.sandiegobusiness.org/sites/all/themes/edc/images/img-block.jpg Source: http://blogs.cresa.com/sandiego/2013/09/mexicantaxchanges/

AMERICA’S CROSSROADS

80% 76% 69% 64% 59% 55% 51% 47% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 6% 9% 13% 16% 19% 22% 24% 26% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8%

3% 3% 4% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Changing Demographics United States, 1980-2050 Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino Black White

74% 65% 55% 48% 44% 40% 37% 34%

5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%

15% 20% 27% 32% 35% 37% 40% 42%

4% 7% 9% 11% 12% 13% 13% 14% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Changing Demographics San Diego County, 1980-2050 Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino Black White

377,538 400,265 468,652 258,632

• 84,448
• 29,129

1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2012-2016 Total Population Growth by Decade San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1980-2016

People of Color Non-Hispanic White

127%

• 27%

127%

• 27%

127%

• 27%

• 2%
• 0.2%

43% 49% 25%

• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Other Growth Rates by Major Race/Ethnic Groups San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 2000-2016

White 47% Black 5% Latino, U.S.-born 22% Latino, Immigrant 11% API, U.S.-born 5% API, Immigrant 7% Native American and Alaska Native 0.4% Other or mixed race 3%

Race/Ethnicity by Nativity, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2012-2016

In San Diego County, foreign- born constitute:

• Around 25% of

the population, a little under a third of the workforce

Immigration Status and Family Ripple Effects, San Diego County, 2016

13

Source: Source: USC Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration analysis of 2016 5-year Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation.

173,000 167,000 53,000

• 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 Undocumented Immigrants U.S. Citizens Living with Undocumented Family Members LPRs Living with Undocumented Family Members

Immigration Status and Family Ripple Effects, San Diego County, 2012-2016

Approximately 12 percent of residents of San Diego County are either undocumented

• r live with a family

member who is undocumented

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Lawful Permanent Resident Undocumented 5 years or less 6-10 years 11-20 years 21-30 years More than 30 years

63% of undocumented San Diego County residents have been in the US for more than a decade

Recency of Arrival by Immigration Status, San Diego County, 2016

14

Source: Source: USC Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration analysis of 2016 5-year Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation.

In San Diego County, 15% of kids under the age of 18 have at least one undocumented parent.

49% 83% 65% 49% 36% 33% 30% 27% 11% 21% 26% 27% 31% 39% 24% 6% 14% 25% 37% 36% 31% under age 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 age 65 or

• lder

Place of Birth Composition by Age Group 2012-2016, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA Foreign Born U.S. Born, Out-of-State U.S. Born, In-State "Home Grown"

108% 77% 65%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% Job Growth U.S., California, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1979-2016

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area California United States

181% 136% 107%

• 25%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% GDP Growth Rate U.S., California, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1979-2016

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area California United States

• 10%
• 8%

2% 19% 28%

• 19%
• 20%
• 4%

16% 30%

• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30%

10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile

Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers 25-64 ($2010) California and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1980 to 2012-2016

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA… California

44% 18% 58% 19% 22% 62%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jobs Earnings per worker

Growth in Jobs and Earnings by Wage Level San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 1990 to 2016

Low-wage Med-wage High-wage

Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity, 2006-2010

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 percent of income

Income Distribution in the U.S., 1917-2012

Top 1% (incomes above $394,000 in 2012) Top 5-1% (incomes between $161,000 and $394,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $114,000 and $161,000)

Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : September 15, 2013.

GROWING INEQUALITY

Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction Administrative, Support, Waste Management, Remediation Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Wholesale Trade Accommodation and Food Services Transportation and Warehousing Finance and Insurance Information Other Services (except Public Administration) Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Management of Companies and Enterprises Education Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining

• $5,000

$20,000 $45,000 $70,000 $95,000 $120,000

• 70%
• 50%
• 30%
• 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110%

Annual Average Earnings ($2016) Employment Growth (%), 2000-2016

INDUSTRY GROWTH: SAN DIEGO MSA

$17 $20 $24 $25 $35 $- $18 $20 $20 $29 $12 $15 $18 $28 $12 $16 $18 $20 $35

Less than a HS Diploma HS Diploma, no College Some College, no Degree AA Degree, no BA BA Degree

• r higher

Median wages by education level ($2016), ages 25-64 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2012-2016

White Black Latino Asian or Pacific Islander

$23

9% 30% 34% 20% 11% 22% 33% 14%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 1990 2012-2016

HOUSING CRISIS

HOUSING CRISIS

#19 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos MSA

4% 8% 31% 8% 13% 16% 23% 24% 14% 19% 24% 34% 21% 19% 23% 10% 11% 7% 8% 9%

47% 24% 17% 51% 37% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All

Educational Attainment (of Adults 25-64) by Race/Ethnicity San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 2012-2016 BA or higher AA degree Some college HS Diploma Less than HS

7% 9% 30% 8% 2% 4% 7% 1%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander High School Dropout Status by Race/Ethnicity, San Diego City, CA 1990 2012-2016

Percent of those 16-24 who are not enrolled in school and lack a diploma

27 33 34 39 41 42 Latino Black Asian/Pacific Islander All Native American and Alaska Native White Median Age by Race/Ethnicity San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 2012-2016

37% 67% 10% 33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1980 1990 2000 2012-2016

Racial Generation Gap San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1980-2016 27 percentage point gap 34 percentage point gap Percent POC - seniors Percent POC - youth

GROWING RACIAL GENERATION GAP

THE GAP MATTERS

Racial Generation Gap by County, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 five-year American Community Survey

THE GAP MATTERS

Per-Child Local Revenues for Education by County, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Public Elementary-Secondary Education Finance Data (F33 file)

 Underinvestment in

each other makes us less competitive as regions and as a nation

• Social tensions over who will

gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive

NEW RELATIONSHIP: EQUITY AND GROWTH

Source: http://storage.cloversites.com/northriverside baptistchurch/site_images/sub_page70_picture0.jpg

Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth—for everyone.

NEW THINKING: EQUITY AND GROWTH

30 35 40 45 50 55 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Initial Gini Coefficient Length of Growth Spell

Relationshipbetween Initial Gini Coefficient and Length of 324 Growth

Spell in 184 American Metropolitan Areas, 1991-2011

NEW EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

Image Sources: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235500211963/Ben-Bernanke-chairman-of--003.jpg; http://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Fed-logo_trans.png; http://www.benjamindrickey.com/gallery/gallery_federal_reserve.jpg

An early push in this direction: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth.

NEW EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

We have developed these ideas further in . . . Using model from IMF, we look at what predicts length of employment growth for 200 metros, 1980-2010 – inequality & social distance are key dragging factors on sustained growth.

Equity and Growth

We have developed these ideas further in . . . We also did 11 case studies and found that:

• Knowing together creates

a higher possibility of growing together.

• Data projects are a key

way to ground the conversation and make progress.

Equity and Growth

Diverse and dynamic knowledge communities

• Centralize knowledge and data
• Have common regional destinies
• Acknowledge of legitimacy of others’

viewpoints

• Are action oriented
• Pursue multi-issue framing and

relationship building that builds regional resilience.

NEW COMMUNITY: EQUITY AND GROWTH

Equity proponents need to consider economic realities and propose feasible, growth-enhancing approaches Equity is not an afterthought but a fundamental element NEW CHALLENGES: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conflict is an important part – and not antithetical –

to collaboration.

Contested definitions of equity

Source: Crompton and Wicks (1989)

NEW DEFINITIONS: EQUITY AND GROWTH

a Past

• Prioritizes investments that will close racialized gaps, especially by

wealth, environmental burden, and existing amenities in a way that will improve work and economic opportunities for underinvested communities.

a Present

• Involves partnership throughout the process that centers the

perspectives of vulnerable communities, that supports authentic community-based participation, and that results in shared decision- making, while also strengthening the entire region.

a Future

• Takes into account the future by leveraging funding for long-term

community health and organizational capacity, mitigates future harm that may result for new investments in a place, and incorporates metrics and evaluation to promote adaptable and effective implementation.

NEW DEFINITIONS: EQUITY

 Equity matters: Key for

future economic growth & sustainability

• Narrative matters: Telling a new story can bring people

together – arts, music, culture all have key roles

• Intersection matters: At the crossroads of movements

and people we find deep empathy, solidarity, & possibilities

 Engagement matters:

Change occurs only through mobilized publics

• Conflict matters: Keeping equity on the table requires

activism as well as enlightenment – don’t shy from the challenges

IMPLICATIONS

SAN DIEGO’S FUTURE: FIRST STEPS

@PERE_USC

http://dornsife.usc.edu/pere

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