America Needs Deep America Needs Deep America Needs Deep - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

America Needs Deep Innovation Again America Needs Deep America Needs Deep Innovation Again Innovation Again

Ken Dill, Feb '09 Ken Dill, Feb '09 Ken Dill, Feb '09

• Atomic Bomb, Radar, Insulin, Rubber
• Truman supports basic science ’45
• V Bush: “Science, The Endless Frontier”
• NIH ’46, AEC ’47 (DOE), NSF ’50
• 30x $ increase, ’40 to ’55
• Labs: Bell Labs, IBM, GE, Ford, Merck, DuPont
• Science Think Tanks (Rand, ‘47)
• NASA & DARPA ’58 (response to Sputnik )
• Atomic Bomb, Radar, Insulin, Rubber

Atomic Bomb, Radar, Insulin, Rubber

• Truman supports basic science

Truman supports basic science ’ ’45 45

• V Bush:

V Bush: “ “Science, The Endless Frontier Science, The Endless Frontier” ”

• NIH

NIH ’ ’46, AEC 46, AEC ’ ’47 (DOE), NSF 47 (DOE), NSF ’ ’50 50

• 30x $ increase,

30x $ increase, ’ ’40 to 40 to ’ ’55 55

• Labs: Bell Labs, IBM, GE, Ford, Merck, DuPont

Labs: Bell Labs, IBM, GE, Ford, Merck, DuPont

• Science Think Tanks (Rand,

Science Think Tanks (Rand, ‘ ‘47) 47)

• NASA & DARPA

NASA & DARPA ’ ’58 (response to Sputnik ) 58 (response to Sputnik )

US innovation engine started with WW2 US innovation engine started with WW2 US innovation engine started with WW2

• Rise of US Universities, Pharmaceutical industry
• Rise of US Nobel Prizes
• Led to lasers, semiconductors, computers, liquid

crystal displays, telecommunications, biotech, medicines & the internet

• Rise of US Universities, Pharmaceutical industry

Rise of US Universities, Pharmaceutical industry

• Rise of US Nobel Prizes

Rise of US Nobel Prizes

• Led to lasers, semiconductors, computers, liquid

Led to lasers, semiconductors, computers, liquid crystal displays, telecommunications, biotech, crystal displays, telecommunications, biotech, medicines & the internet medicines & the internet

US investments paid off (’45 - ’70’s) US investments paid off ( US investments paid off (’ ’45 45 -

• ’

’70 70’ ’s) s)

US is less competitive now US is less competitive now US is less competitive now

• Our hi-tech balance of trade is now -$53B/year
• Gone: Bell Labs, RCA Sarnoff, Glaxo
• IBM & Microsoft outsourcing research: $10B
• Down: US physics papers, patents, math/sci degrees
• Dropped: Fed R&D/GDP, to half of ‘60
• Estimated 100 Silicon valleys springing up elsewhere
• Our hi

Our hi-

• tech balance of trade is now

tech balance of trade is now -

• $53B/year

$53B/year

• Gone: Bell Labs, RCA Sarnoff, Glaxo

Gone: Bell Labs, RCA Sarnoff, Glaxo

• IBM & Microsoft outsourcing research: $10B

IBM & Microsoft outsourcing research: $10B

• Down: US physics papers, patents, math/sci degrees

Down: US physics papers, patents, math/sci degrees

• Dropped: Fed R&D/GDP, to half of

Dropped: Fed R&D/GDP, to half of ‘ ‘60 60

• Estimated 100 Silicon valleys springing up elsewhere

Estimated 100 Silicon valleys springing up elsewhere

What happened to us? What happened to us? What happened to us?

• Military threats subsided. Cold war ended.
• US: R&D growth slowed down.
• Other countries accelerated R&D.
• We expected too much (’71 War on Cancer, ... ).
• US high-tech switched to short-term focus.
• Military threats subsided. Cold war ended.

Military threats subsided. Cold war ended.

• US: R&D growth slowed down.

US: R&D growth slowed down.

• Other countries accelerated R&D.

Other countries accelerated R&D.

• We expected too much (

We expected too much (’ ’71 War on Cancer, ... ). 71 War on Cancer, ... ).

• US high

US high-

• tech switched to short

tech switched to short-

• term focus.

term focus.

We switched from We switched from We switched from

The Next “Big Thing”

to

The Next “Little Thing” The Next The Next “ “Big Thing Big Thing” ”

to to

The Next The Next “ “Little Thing Little Thing” ”

• We need new grant mechanisms.
• Bet on the scientist, not the outcome.
• Evaluate innovation, not predictability.
• Short proposals, to avoid over-reviewing.
• Give points for harder problems, not easier ones.
• Peer review is too conservative for this.
• Grant support for 4-8 years, not 3-4.
• We need new grant mechanisms.

We need new grant mechanisms.

• Bet on the scientist, not the outcome.

Bet on the scientist, not the outcome.

• Evaluate innovation, not predictability.

Evaluate innovation, not predictability.

• Short proposals, to avoid over

Short proposals, to avoid over-

• reviewing.

reviewing.

• Give points for harder problems, not easier ones.

Give points for harder problems, not easier ones.

• Peer review is too conservative for this.

Peer review is too conservative for this.

• Grant support for 4

Grant support for 4-

• 8 years, not 3

8 years, not 3-

• 4.

4.

US agencies should put 10% into Blue-Sky Research US agencies should put 10% US agencies should put 10% into Blue into Blue-

• Sky Research

Sky Research

America Needs Deep Innovation Again

Put the search back into research

America Needs Deep Innovation Again America Needs Deep Innovation Again

Put the Put the search search back into research back into research