America Needs Deep America Needs Deep America Needs Deep Innovation Again Innovation Again Innovation Again Ken Dill, Feb '09 Ken Dill, Feb '09 Ken Dill, Feb '09
US innovation engine started with WW2 US innovation engine started with WW2 US innovation engine started with WW2 Atomic Bomb, Radar, Insulin, Rubber Atomic Bomb, Radar, Insulin, Rubber Atomic Bomb, Radar, Insulin, Rubber • • • Truman supports basic science ’ ’45 45 Truman supports basic science Truman supports basic science ’45 • • • V Bush: “ “Science, The Endless Frontier Science, The Endless Frontier” ” V Bush: V Bush: “Science, The Endless Frontier” • • • NIH ’ ’46, AEC 46, AEC ’ ’47 (DOE), NSF 47 (DOE), NSF ’ ’50 50 NIH NIH ’46, AEC ’47 (DOE), NSF ’50 • • • 30x $ increase, ’ ’40 to 40 to ’ ’55 55 30x $ increase, 30x $ increase, ’40 to ’55 • • • Labs: Bell Labs, IBM, GE, Ford, Merck, DuPont Labs: Bell Labs, IBM, GE, Ford, Merck, DuPont Labs: Bell Labs, IBM, GE, Ford, Merck, DuPont • • • Science Think Tanks (Rand, ‘ ‘47) 47) Science Think Tanks (Rand, Science Think Tanks (Rand, ‘47) • • • NASA & DARPA ’ ’58 (response to Sputnik ) 58 (response to Sputnik ) NASA & DARPA NASA & DARPA ’58 (response to Sputnik ) • • •
US investments paid off (’ ’45 45 - - ’ ’70 70’ ’s) s) US investments paid off ( US investments paid off (’45 - ’70’s) Rise of US Universities, Pharmaceutical industry Rise of US Universities, Pharmaceutical industry Rise of US Universities, Pharmaceutical industry • • • Rise of US Nobel Prizes Rise of US Nobel Prizes Rise of US Nobel Prizes • • • Led to lasers, semiconductors, computers, liquid Led to lasers, semiconductors, computers, liquid Led to lasers, semiconductors, computers, liquid • • • crystal displays, telecommunications, biotech, crystal displays, telecommunications, biotech, crystal displays, telecommunications, biotech, medicines & the internet medicines & the internet medicines & the internet
US is less competitive now US is less competitive now US is less competitive now Our hi- -tech balance of trade is now tech balance of trade is now - -$53B/year $53B/year Our hi Our hi-tech balance of trade is now -$53B/year • • • Gone: Bell Labs, RCA Sarnoff, Glaxo Gone: Bell Labs, RCA Sarnoff, Glaxo Gone: Bell Labs, RCA Sarnoff, Glaxo • • • IBM & Microsoft outsourcing research: $10B IBM & Microsoft outsourcing research: $10B IBM & Microsoft outsourcing research: $10B • • • Down: US physics papers, patents, math/sci degrees Down: US physics papers, patents, math/sci degrees Down: US physics papers, patents, math/sci degrees • • • Dropped: Fed R&D/GDP, to half of ‘ ‘60 60 Dropped: Fed R&D/GDP, to half of Dropped: Fed R&D/GDP, to half of ‘60 • • • Estimated 100 Silicon valleys springing up elsewhere Estimated 100 Silicon valleys springing up elsewhere Estimated 100 Silicon valleys springing up elsewhere • • •
What happened to us? What happened to us? What happened to us? Military threats subsided. Cold war ended. Military threats subsided. Cold war ended. Military threats subsided. Cold war ended. • • • US: R&D growth slowed down. US: R&D growth slowed down. US: R&D growth slowed down. • • • Other countries accelerated R&D. Other countries accelerated R&D. Other countries accelerated R&D. • • • We expected too much (’ ’71 War on Cancer, ... ). 71 War on Cancer, ... ). We expected too much ( We expected too much (’71 War on Cancer, ... ). • • • US high- -tech switched to short tech switched to short- -term focus. term focus. US high US high-tech switched to short-term focus. • • •
We switched from We switched from We switched from The Next “ “Big Thing Big Thing” ” The Next The Next “Big Thing” to to to The Next “ “Little Thing Little Thing” ” The Next The Next “Little Thing”
US agencies should put 10% US agencies should put 10% US agencies should put 10% into Blue- -Sky Research Sky Research into Blue into Blue-Sky Research We need new grant mechanisms. We need new grant mechanisms. We need new grant mechanisms. • • • Bet on the scientist, not the outcome. Bet on the scientist, not the outcome. Bet on the scientist, not the outcome. • • • Evaluate innovation, not predictability. Evaluate innovation, not predictability. Evaluate innovation, not predictability. • • • Short proposals, to avoid over- -reviewing. reviewing. Short proposals, to avoid over Short proposals, to avoid over-reviewing. • • • Give points for harder problems, not easier ones. Give points for harder problems, not easier ones. Give points for harder problems, not easier ones. • • • Peer review is too conservative for this. Peer review is too conservative for this. Peer review is too conservative for this. • • • Grant support for 4- -8 years, not 3 8 years, not 3- -4. 4. Grant support for 4 Grant support for 4-8 years, not 3-4. • • •
America Needs Deep Innovation Again America Needs Deep Innovation Again America Needs Deep Innovation Again Put the search search Put the Put the search back into research back into research back into research
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