DALRON CONSTRUCTION LIMITED RESEARCH COORDINATOR, JAMES CUDDY 4 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DALRON CONSTRUCTION LIMITED

RESEARCH COORDINATOR, JAMES CUDDY

4 JUNE 2015, DAYS INN, SUDBURY

Overview

• What is Northern Policy Institute?
• Economic growth in Northern Ontario
• Economic growth in Greater Sudbury
• Conclusions and observations
• Q/A and Discussion

What IS Northern Policy Institute

Independent - There are a couple of BIG differences between “working WITH a Policy Institute” and “HIRING a consultant”: we don’t work for you and we can’t guarantee an answer you will like. Independent means just that –

• Funders, members and stakeholders do not direct the work of

Northern Policy Institute.

• Board, funders, members and stakeholders do not “pick” projects
• r pre-determine results.
• Staff and contract authors follow the evidence
• Northern Policy Institute does NOT take positions – we ask

the questions – the authors provide, and defend, the answers.

• Their analysis is tested before publication: Double blind peer

review – just like academic journals.

Our Region

Northern Ontario consists of (Census, 2011):

• 2 Economic Regions
• 11 Districts
• 166 Communities
• 72 First Nations
• 94 Municipalities
• ~ 780,000 individuals

780,000 bosses

We work for and take direction from the people of Northern Ontario. Over 100 meetings and events in the past twelve months throughout Northern Ontario and beyond. Top ten issues: 1. Cost of electricity: WAY too high. 2. Need for partnership and collaboration among our communities. 3. Importance of the issues and challenges facing aboriginal communities. 4. Who decides our fate? 5. Our communities are dying; How do we sustain them and keep people in (attract new people to) the North? 6. Infrastructure: transportation and communication. 7. Protecting/understanding/reflecting the northern way of life. 8. Training – access and relevance to local opportunities. 9. Do we really know ourselves? Data and measurement. 10. Where does all the money from the North go?

Know the North

Statscan knows a little:

• 2 summer interns
• Drill down (to postal codes) then build up (to community level)

Collectively, we know a lot:

• 6 summer interns
• Municipalities, First Nations Communities, Aboriginal Groups,

Economic Development Agencies, Research Institutes, Unions, Chambers and other Community/ Grassroots Organizations

• What do you know? – your data
• How do you know it? – your tools, your timing (one time or cyclical?)
• Common tools - provincial surveys, common questions, common

measures

• Examples: chamber and municipal satisfaction surveys, Sioux Lookout

mining permit survey, Kenora growth project, Thunder Bay index, everything you ask or know about your community

The KEY – open honest sharing of information

Three ways YOUR issue gets on OUR to-do list

1. Research if necessary:

Northern Policy Institute standing consultation tools will be used to inform, test and reset our internal research agenda and

• priorities. If your issue is shared by your friends and neighbours,

it will likely get onto our to-do list.

2. But not necessarily research:

YOU do the work, commission the study, and you send it to us for re-publication or dissemination. Big parts of our job involve avoiding wasteful duplication of effort and getting the word out about what has already been done.

3. Working WITH Northern Policy Institute:

NOT a consulting service, but will partner – in cash, or in kind – to expedite needed work.

Trends and Characteristics in the North

We are a small piece of the provincial pie in population terms

• The north makes up only 6% of Ontario’s total population

(Census, 2011)

Northern Ontario Rest of Province

BUT, we are a big part of the global “north”

Source: New Northern Lens, Northern Policy Institute 2015

AND, our resources are of global significance

• Northern Ontario is one of the most important resource producing

regions in Canada.

• In 2013, Northern Ontario accounted for almost all the metals

production and 23% of the non-metals produced in Ontario,

• Since 2006 the region has consistently produced between 67 and

79% of the value of all Ontario’s mineral production.

Source: It’s what you know (and where you can go), Northern Policy Institute 2015

POPULATION

• Historical and projected population in Northern Ontario, 1871-2036
• Population is expected to increase to 807,100 (0.5%) by 2036
• NW expected to increase by 3.9%
• NE expected to decrease by 1%

Source: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 2015

Northern Ontario HAS grown – in places

Source: Diversify, Innovate, Invest & Grow Northern Policy Institute 2015

Northern Ontario WILL grow – in places

• 13.53
• 7.31
• 5.58
• 4.06
• 3.90
• 1.00

0.00 1.43 1.97 2.75 3.94 6.41 11.23

• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15

Percent Change

Northern Districts - Projected population percent change, 2012-2036

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance projections, 2013

Youth (15-24) out-migration is slowing

• 3000
• 2500
• 2000
• 1500
• 1000
• 500

Northeastern Ontario 15 to 29 years Northwestern Ontario 15 to 29 years

But each district is different…

• 800
• 600
• 400
• 200

200 400

2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Employment

3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employment (thousands)

Northeast

Northeast Employment Northeast Share of provincial employment

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employment (thousands)

Northwest

Northwest Employment Northwest Share of provincial employment

Sources: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 2015; From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute, 2015.

Full-time employment

72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Full-time jobs as a share of total employment (%)

Canada FT/Total Ontario FT/Total Northeast FT/Total Northwest FT/Total

Sources: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 2015; From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute, 2015.

Participation Rates

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percent of working age individuals participating in the labour force

Canada Participation rate Ontario Participation rate Northeast Participation rate Northwest Participation rate

Youth Labour Force in the Northeast

Source: From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute 2015

Elementary and secondary school enrolment is falling

4,660,000 4,680,000 4,700,000 4,720,000 4,740,000 4,760,000 4,780,000 4,800,000

Canada

0.1% decline 5,025 students

2,010,000 2,020,000 2,030,000 2,040,000 2,050,000 2,060,000 2,070,000 2,080,000

Ontario

0.6% decline 11,922 students

31,500 32,000 32,500 33,000 33,500 2011/2012 2012/2013

Northwest Ontario

3.1% decline 1,046 students

80,500 81,000 81,500 82,000 82,500 83,000 2011/2012 2012/2013

Northeast Ontario

1.8 % decline 1,470 students

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 477-0037; Ontario Ministry of Education

Still – our education levels are rising

Census 2006 Less than highschool % Apprenticeship

• r trades

certificate or diploma % College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate

• r diploma %

University certificate, diploma or degree Northwestern Ontario 30.1% 11.2% 18.6% 12.1% Northeastern Ontario 28.8% 11.4% 21.0% 11.1% Ontario 22.2% 8.0% 18.4% 20.5% NHS 2011 Less than highschool % Apprenticeship

• r trades

certificate or diploma % College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate

• r diploma %

University certificate, diploma or degree (at or above bachelor level) Northwestern Ontario 25.2% 11.3% 21.3% 14.4% Northeastern Ontario 23.8% 11.3% 23.7% 13.1% Ontario 18.7% 7.4% 19.8% 23.4%

Economic Growth in Greater Sudbury

• 1. Population
• 2. Employment
• 3. Infrastructure

Trends in population in large Canadian cities

• St. John's, 211724

Moncton, 146073 Saint John, 127314 Saguenay, 160138 Sherbrooke, 212061 Trois-Rivières, 155813 Kingston, 168353 Peterborough, 123270 Brantford, 143074 Guelph, 150946 Barrie, 200416

Greater Sudbury, 165690 Thunder Bay, 125112

Kelowna, 191237 Abbotsford-Mission, 178967 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Population Trends - All Canadian CMAs under 200,000

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 051-0056

Population Pyramids

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 051-0056 and 051-0001 4.8 5.2 5.2 6.3 7.5 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.7 7.0 8.4 7.5 6.5 5.5 3.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.4

• 4.3
• 4.7
• 4.8
• 5.9
• 7.0
• 6.7
• 6.3
• 6.0
• 6.3
• 6.8
• 8.1
• 7.8
• 6.6
• 5.3
• 4.4
• 3.5
• 2.8
• 1.7
• 1.0
• 10
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 to 89 years 90 years and over

Greater Sudbury

Female, 2014 Male, 2014 Male, 2001 Female, 2001 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.6 7.4 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.7 7.3 8.1 7.1 5.9 4.9 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.4

• 5.0
• 5.2
• 5.2
• 6.0
• 6.9
• 6.8
• 6.7
• 6.5
• 6.7
• 7.2
• 7.8
• 7.0
• 6.0
• 5.2
• 3.8
• 3.0
• 2.4
• 1.6
• 1.1
• 10
• 5

5 10 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 to 89 years 90 years and over

Ontario

Female, 2014 Male, 2014 Male, 2001 Female, 2001

Greater Sudbury Population Projections

15 Ages 0-14, 14 13 Ages 15-24, 11 13 Ages 25-34, 11 28 Ages 35-54, 25 23 Ages 55-74, 22 7 Ages 75+, 17

5 10 15 20 25 30

Percent of total population

Population Projections by Age Group, 2013-2041

Trends in Youth (15-24) Migration in Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay

• 1000
• 800
• 600
• 400
• 200

200 400

Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay

Labour Force Characteristics

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employment Rate (%)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Participation Rate (%)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Unemployment Rate (%)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Full Time Jobs (% of total)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay

Youth Labour Force Characteristics

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Youth Unemployment Rate (%)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 50 55 60 65 70 75 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Youth Participation Rate (%)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Youth Employment Rate (%)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Youth full-time jobs (% of total)

Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay

Employment vs Population: Correlation

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 051-0056 and 282-0129 158000 159000 160000 161000 162000 163000 164000 165000 166000 167000 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

Thousands

Greater Sudbury, 2001-2014

Greater Sudbury Employment Greater Sudbury Population 123500 124000 124500 125000 125500 126000 126500 127000 127500 128000 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 2001 20022003 20042005 2006 20072008 2009 20102011 20122013 2014

Thousands

Thunder Bay, 2001-2014

Thunder Bay Employment Thunder Bay Population

Greater Sudbury:

• Corr = 0.91
• Ave annual population change = 323
• Ave. annual employment change = 800

Thunder Bay:

• Corr = 0.64
• Ave annual population change = -122
• Ave. annual employment change = -8

Can we have population growth without job growth, and vice versa?

Employment vs Population: Cumulative Y/Y Growth Rates, 2001-14

• 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Sudbury

Y/Y cumulative % change - Populaton Y/Y cumulative % change - Employment

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thunder Bay

Y/Y cumulative % change - Populaton Y/Y cumulative % change - Employment Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 051-0056 and 282-0129

Greater Sudbury:

• Ave annual pop growth rate = 0.2%
• Ave annual emp growth rate = 1.1%

Thunder Bay:

• Ave annual pop growth rate = - 0.1%
• Ave annual emp growth rate = 0.03%

Distribution of Jobs – Greater Sudbury

16% 13% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 1%

2001

Trade Health care and social assistance Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Educational services Accommodation and food services Public administration Business, building and other support services Construction Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Other services Professional, scientific and technical services Information, culture and recreation Agriculture + Utilities

17% 15% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 0%

2014

Trade Health care and social assistance Educational services Accommodation and food services Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Public administration Construction Transportation and warehousing Professional, scientific and technical services Business, building and other support services Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Information, culture and recreation Other services Manufacturing Agriculture + Utilities

Goods-producing Sector

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greater Sudbury

Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Construction Manufacturing 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thunder Bay

Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Construction Manufacturing

Services-producing Sector – Greater Sudbury

Trade, 14,300

Transportation and warehousing, 4,000 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, 3,200 Professional, scientific and technical services, 3,900 Business, building and other support services , 3,500

Educational services , 7,200 Health care and social assistance , 12,800

Information, culture and recreation , 3,200

Accommodation and food services , 6,900

Other services , 3,100

Public administration, 5,700

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employment by Industry – Greater Sudbury

Trade in Sudbury – A closer look…

Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 2011 Census) 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Farm product merchant wholesalers Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers Personal and household goods merchant wholesalers Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories merchant wholesalers Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers Miscellaneous merchant wholesalers Business-to-business electronic markets, and agents and brokers

Wholesale Trade, 2013 (26% of total trade)

52% 16%

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Motor vehicle and parts dealers Furniture and home furnishings stores Electronics and appliance stores Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Food and beverage stores Health and personal care stores Gasoline stations Clothing and clothing accessories stores Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores General merchandise stores Miscellaneous store retailers Non-store retailers

Retail Trade, 2013 (74% of total trade)

21% 17%

Health Care in Sudbury – A closer look…

Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 2011 Census) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Offices of physicians Offices of dentists Offices of other health practitioners Out-patient care centres Medical and diagnostic laboratories Home health care services Other ambulatory health care services General medical and surgical hospitals Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals Specialty (except psychiatric and substance abuse) hospitals Nursing care facilities Residential developmental handicap, mental health and substance abuse facilities Community care facilities for the elderly Other residential care facilities Individual and family services Community food and housing, and emergency and other relief services Vocational rehabilitation services Child day-care services

Health Care and Social Assistance, 2013

24% 13%

Accommodation and Food in Sudbury – a closer look…

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Traveller accommodation Recreational vehicle (RV) parks and recreational camps Rooming and boarding houses Special food services Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) Full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places

Accommodation and Food Services, 2013 87%

Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 2011 Census)

Greater Sudbury Infrastructure Indicators (bricks and mortar)

• Building Permits
• Industrial
• Commercial
• Institutional and Governmental
• Residential
• Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0006 (Adjusted for inflation, expressed

in 2014 dollars)

Value of Building Permits, all purposes

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Value of Building Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Value of Building Permits

Residential Industrial Commercial Institutional and governmental Average - Total residential and non-residential

Industrial Building Permits

• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Percent change from previous year Value of Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Value of Industrial Building Permits, Trend

Y/Y % change - Industrial Industrial Average - Industrial 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars) ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Comparative Trend

Ontario Industrial Greater Sudbury Industrial Greater Sudbury Average - Industrial

Commercial Building Permits

• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 20 40 60 80 100 120

Percent change from previous year Value of Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Value of Commercial Building Permits, Trend

Y/Y % change - Commercial Commercial Average - Commercial 20 40 60 80 100 120 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars) ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Comparative Trend

Ontario Commercial Greater Sudbury Commercial Greater Sudbury Average - Commercial

Institutional and Governmental Permits

• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Percent change from previous year Value of Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Value of Institutional and Governmental Building Permits, Trend

Y/Y % change - Institutional and governmental Institutional and governmental Average - Institutional and governmental 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars) ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Comparative Trend

Ontario Institutional and governmental Greater Sudbury Institutional and governmental Greater Sudbury Average - Institutional and governmental

Residential Building Permits

• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 60 50 100 150 200 250 300

Percent change from previous year Value of Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Value of Residential Building Permits, Trend

Y/Y % change - Residential Residential Average - Residential 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars) ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)

Comparative Trend

Ontario Residential Greater Sudbury Residential Greater Sudbury Average - Residential

Conclusions and Observations

• Sudbury’s population projections are weak, but not written in stone
• The number of working age women in Sudbury is disproportionately

low

• Employment (including full-time) and participation rates in Sudbury

are at or nearing provincial and national levels – the gap is closing

• Youth migration in the North is slowing; Sudbury is leading the way
• Youth labour force indicators in Sudbury are strong – recent influx of

youth are added benefit but more needs to be done

• The food services industry shows promising signs of growth
• Trends in commercial building appear to be highly volatile
• Growth in residential building has not recovered from the financial

crisis

www.northernpolicy.ca Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch.

Discussion Questions

How can the public AND private sector: 1. Continue to attract and retain youth in Sudbury? 2. Attract and retain women in Sudbury? 3. Encourage local entrepreneurial endeavours? 4. Foster greater certainty and growth in commercial and residential investments?