Coronavirus Speaker Series: Sharing Knowledge to Respond with - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Coronavirus Speaker Series:

Sharing Knowledge to Respond with Resilience

#11: Pandemic Resilient City

Thursday, 21 May 2020

8.30 AM EST – 12.30PM GMT - 8.30 PM Singapore time

21st Century Pandemic Urban Resilience

Robert Muir-Wood Chief Research Officer Risk Management Solutions @RobertMuirWood Daniel Stander Global Managing Director Risk Management Solutions @StanderDI Mahesh Harhare Chief Research Officer City of Pune @MHarhare

Note the presentations are organized for the purpose of knowledge sharing and do not necessarily represent the views of the organizers

Transmissibility

▪ R0 = Basic Reproduction Number ▪ R0 = Expected number of secondary cases that each case causes ▪ Interdependence: disease + human environment ▪ COVID-19? ▪ Initially… R 1.5 – 3.5 Susceptible Infective t = 1 t = 2 t = 2 Recovered

t = 2 t = 1 t = 2 ▪ R0 = Basic Reproduction Number ▪ R0 = Expected number of secondary cases that each case causes ▪ Interdependence: disease + human environment ▪ COVID-19? ▪ Initially… R 1.5 – 3.5 ▪ Distancing… R 0.3 – 0.5

Transmissibility wit ith Social Dis istancing

t = 2 Susceptible Infective Recovered t = 2

1m 0m 3m 5m 4m 2m 0sec 1min 1hr High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk 1% 5% 25% Separation Distance Contact Duration

Illustrative

From Human Contact to Transmission

(Distance x Duration x Infectiousness)

Measuring Human Contact

(hrs per day per person in ‘close contact’)

Office Transport Production Match Elevator Commute Bar Restaurant

▪ Auditing contact using ‘huddle’ metric…

▪ Hours per day within 2m ▪ Number of different people per huddle

8 hrs <2m x 1 contact x 1% infectious = 1% risk of transmission 4 hrs <2m x 100 contacts x 1% infectious = 10% risk of transmission

Measuring Human Contact

(Prolonged vs. Multiple)

Driving a Bus Cohabiting

10% 1%

Measure

• Huddle (hrs / person / day)
• Transmission
• Productivity

Measuring Human Contact

(Maximizing Social Distancing and Economic Productivity)

Remeasure

• Huddle (hrs / person / day)
• Transmission
• Productivity

Apply Social Distancing

Schools

Re-Open Schools School Buses Private Transport Classroom Distancing More Classes Longer School Hours Closed Schools

Higher Neutral Lower

CRO Focus Questions

Next Three Months

1 Role? 2 Data? 3 Pandemic Plus…? 4 Particularities?

How do you negotiate your role vs. that of national public health? What data do you need to perform your role? How do you balance managing risks of infectious disease with potential impacts from other shocks / stresses? What are the particular challenges of your city which make managing pandemics unique?

Partial Herd Immunity

t = 2 t = 2 t = 1 Susceptible Infective Recovered ▪ Rt = Basic Reproduction Number” at time t ▪ Rt = Expected number of secondary cases that each case causes in population with partial herd immunity ▪ COVID-19? ▪ Initially… Rt 1.5 – 3.5 ▪ Partial herd… Rt 1.0 – 1.5

1 Transparency and Openness 2 Containment and Mitigation 3 Triage and Treatment System 4 Massive Screening and Fast-Tracking

South Korea

Harnessing Recent Experience Improved Risk Management

Beyond WHO International ‘fire-fighting’ capability for novel viruses Physical Resilience Architectural + technological resilience measures Risk Transfer Parametric insurance for business survival Transmission Rt Measurement of human contact + transmissibility

Future Pandemic Risk Management

CRO Focus Questions

Next Three Years

1 Define Targets? 2 Avoid Amnesia? 3 Institutionalize Lessons? 4 Drive Legacy?

Can you define – in quantitative terms – what pandemic resilience means for your city? How do you ensure the memory of COVID19 is preserved? What are the most important take-aways? How can you effectively campaign for legacy actions?

A Pandemic Cheat Sheet for CROs

Robert.Muir-Wood@rms.com

@RobertMuirWood and

Daniel.Stander@rms.com

@StanderDI

Coronavirus Speaker Series:

Sharing Knowledge to Respond with Resilience