Corn and Soybean Outlook Todd Hubbs U.S. Corn Supply and Use - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Corn and Soybean Outlook Todd Hubbs U.S. Corn Supply and Use - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 13, 2023 99 likes •364 views

Corn and Soybean Outlook Todd Hubbs U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 USDA USDA Estimate Forecast Area Planted (mil. Acres) 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.9 Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 83.1

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SLIDE 1

Corn and Soybean Outlook

Todd Hubbs

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SLIDE 2

U.S. Corn Supply and Use

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 USDA Estimate 2019/20 USDA Forecast

Area Planted

(mil. Acres)

90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.9

Area Harvested

(mil. Acres)

83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.7 81.8

Yield

(Bu./acre)

171 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 167.0

Production

(mil. Bu.)

14,216 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 13,661

Imports

(mil. Bu.)

32 67 57 36 28 50

Total Supply

(mil. Bu.)

15,479 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,588 15,825

Feed and Residual

(mil. Bu.)

5,284 5,113 5,470 5,304 5,618 5,275

Food, Seed, and Industrial

(mil. Bu.)

6,601 6,643 6,885 7,056 6,791 6,790

Ethanol

(mil. Bu.)

5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,376 5,375

Exports

(mil. Bu.)

1,867 1,901 2,294 2,438 2,065 1,850

Total Use

(mil. Bu.)

13,748 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,474 13,915

Ending Stocks

(mil. Bu.)

1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140

2,114 1,910

Season Average Price

($ per Bu.)

$3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.61 $3.85

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SLIDE 3

Corn Production

12.4 12.3 10.8 13.8 14.2 13.6 15.1 14.6 14.4 13.7 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.6 3.9 3.2 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Billion of Bushels United States Brazil Argentina Ukraine

Data: NASS

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SLIDE 4

U.S. Feed and Residual Use

5,819 5,845 5,545 5,778 6,132 6,111 5,535 5,853 5,128 5,096 4,770 4,512 4,309 5,002 5,286 5,118 5,470 5,304 5,618 5,275

3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Millions of Bushels

Feed and Residual Use

Data: NASS

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SLIDE 5

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol

630 707 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,119 3,049 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,376 5,375

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Millions of Bushels

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SLIDE 6

U.S. Weekly Gasoline Demand

Data: EIA

8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Millions of Barrels per Day 2018 2019 5-Year Avg.

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SLIDE 7

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

World Brazil Canada China Columbia India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Philippines UAE UK

Millions of Gallons

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year

Data: EIA

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SLIDE 8

U.S. Corn Exports

2,134 2,125 2,437 1,849 1,979 1,831 1,539 730 1,921 1,867 1,899 2,294 2,439 2,067 1,850

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Millions of Bushels World Mexico Japan South Korea Columbia

Data: FAS GATS

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SLIDE 9

U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price

19.50% 16.26% 11.45% 9.37% 19.83% 17.46% 11.63% 12.75% 13.94% 13.10% 8.65% 7.92% 7.41% 9.16% 12.59% 12.71% 15.66% 14.46% 14.61% 13.73%

$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Dollars per Bushel Percent Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price

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SLIDE 10

167

y = 1.8749t + 59.275 R² = 0.9079

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

  • bu. per ac.

Data: NASS

U.S. Average Corn Yield

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SLIDE 11

60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 thousands

Planted Harvested

Data: NASS

Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn

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SLIDE 12

Corn Balance Sheet

2019-20 USDA Forecast 2019-20 Forecast 2020-21 USDA Forecast 2020-21 Forecast Supply:

Planted Acreage (mill. Ac.) 89.9 89.9 94.5 92.1 Harvested Acreage (mill. Ac.) 81.8 81.5 87.1 84.7 Yield (Bu. / Ac.) 167.0 165.3 178.5 177.4 Total Production(mill. Bu.) 13,661 13,472 15,545 15,025 Beginning Stocks(mill. Bu.) 2,114 2,114 1,910 1,671 Imports (mill. Bu.) 50 50 25 25

Total Supply (mill. Bu.) 15,825 15,636 17,480 16,721 Consumption:

Feed and Residual (mill. Bu.) 5,275 5,300 5,775 5,425 Food, Seed, and Industrial (mill. Bu.) 6,790 6,790 6,870 6,820 Ethanol (mill. Bu.) 5,375 5,375 5,450 5,400 Exports (mill. Bu.) 1,850 1,865 2,100 2,050

Total Consumption (mill. Bu.) 13,915 13,955 14,745 14,295 Ending Stocks (mill. Bu.) 1,910 1,681 2,735 2,426

Stocks-to-Use 13.7% 12.0% 18.5% 17.0%

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.85 $3.95 $3.40 $3.55

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SLIDE 13

Marketing Year Corn Basis - Central Illinois

  • 55
  • 50
  • 45
  • 40
  • 35
  • 30
  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 6-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep 4-Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 25-Oct 1-Nov 8-Nov 15-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec 20-Dec 27-Dec 4-Jan 11-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug

Cents per Bushel

2018-19 2019-20 3 Year Average

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SLIDE 14

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

2014/ 15 2015/ 16 2016/ 17 2017/ 18 2018/19 USDA Estimate 2019/20 USDA Forecast

Area Planted

(mil. Acres)

83.3 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 76.5

Area Harvested

(mil. Acres)

82.6 81.7 82.7 89.5 87.6 75.6

Yield

(Bu./acre)

47.5 48 52.0 49.3 50.6 46.9

Production

(mil. Bu.)

3,927 3,296 4,296 4,412 4,428 3,550

Imports

(mil. Bu.)

33 24 22 22 14 20

Total Supply

(mil. Bu.)

4,052 4,140 4,515 4,735 4,880 4,483

Crush

(mil. Bu.)

1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,092 2,105

Seed and Residual

(mil. Bu.)

146 122 146 113 128 128

Exports

(mil. Bu.)

1,842 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,748 1,775

Total Use

(mil. Bu.)

3,862 3,944 4,214 4,297 3,967 4,008

Ending Stocks

(mil. Bu.)

191 197 302 438 913 475

Season Average Price

($ per Bu.)

$10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $8.48 $9.00

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SLIDE 15

Soybean Production

2.7 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.7 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.5 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.0 2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Billions of Bushels

United States Brazil Argentina

Data: NASS

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SLIDE 16

1,640 1,700 1,615 1,530 1,696 1,739 1,808 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,092 2,105

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Millions of Bushels

U.S. Soybean Crush

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SLIDE 17

U.S. Soybean Exports

996 1,064 1,044 887 1,097 940 1,116 1,159 1,279 1,499 1,505 1,366 1,328 1,639 1,842 1,942 2,166 2,129 1,748 1,775

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Million Bushels

U.S. Soybean Exports China Mexico Japan

Data: FAS GATS

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SLIDE 18

487 382 787 622 948 1,041 1,056 1,390 1,510 1,819 1,923 2,113 2,200 2,535 2,879 3,058 3,436 3,458 3,033 3,123

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Millions of Bushels

China Soybean Imports

Data: FAS

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SLIDE 19

Brazil and U.S. Monthly Exports

Data: COMEX VIS and FAS

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Millions of Bushels U.S. 2017-18 U.S. 2018-19 Brazil 2017-18 Brazil 2018-19

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SLIDE 20

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price

8.84% 7.09% 6.38% 4.43% 8.57% 15.60% 18.63% 6.71% 4.53% 4.49% 6.55% 5.35% 4.53% 2.65% 4.95% 4.99% 7.17% 10.19% 23.01% 11.85%

$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Dollars per Bushel Percent

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio

  • Avg. Farm Price
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SLIDE 21

46.9

y = 0.4362x + 21.158 R² = 0.8942

10 20 30 40 50 60

Bushels per Acre

U.S. Soybean Average Yield

Data: NASS

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SLIDE 22

50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 thousands

Planted

Harvested

Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans

Data: NASS

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SLIDE 23

Soybean Balance Sheet

2019-20 USDA Forecast 2019-20 Forecast 2020-21 USDA Forecast 2020-21 Forecast Supply: Planted Acreage (mil.) 76.5 76.5 84.0 85.4 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 75.6 75.4 83.2 84.6 Yield (bu./ac.) 46.9 45.8 50.5 50.3 Production (mil. bu.) 3,550 3,453 4,200 4,255 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 913 913 475 383 Imports (mil. bu.) 20 20 20 20 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,483 4,386 4,695 4,658 Consumption: Crush (mil. bu.) 2,105 2,105 2,135 2,115 Export (mil. bu.) 1,775 1,770 1,895 1,800 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 128 128 132 134 Total Consumption (mil. bu.) 4,008 4,003 4,162 4,049 Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 475 383 533 609 Stocks-to-use 11.8% 9.6% 12.8% 15.0% Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.00 $8.90 $8.85 $8.50

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SLIDE 24

Marketing Year Soybean Basis - Central Illinois

  • 75
  • 70
  • 65
  • 60
  • 55
  • 50
  • 45
  • 40
  • 35
  • 30
  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

6-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep 4-Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 25-Oct 1-Nov 8-Nov 15-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec 20-Dec 27-Dec 4-Jan 11-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug

Cents per Bushel

2018-19 2019-20 3 Year Average

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SLIDE 25
  • Thank You
  • Questions?