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Corn and Soybean Outlook Todd Hubbs U.S. Corn Supply and Use - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Corn and Soybean Outlook Todd Hubbs U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 USDA USDA Estimate Forecast Area Planted (mil. Acres) 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.9 Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 83.1

  1. Corn and Soybean Outlook Todd Hubbs

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 USDA USDA Estimate Forecast Area Planted (mil. Acres) 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.9 Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.7 81.8 Yield (Bu./acre) 171 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 167.0 Production (mil. Bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 13,661 Imports (mil. Bu.) 32 67 57 36 28 50 Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,588 15,825 Feed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 5,284 5,113 5,470 5,304 5,618 5,275 Food, Seed, and (mil. Bu.) 6,601 6,643 6,885 7,056 6,791 6,790 Industrial Ethanol (mil. Bu.) 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,376 5,375 Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,867 1,901 2,294 2,438 2,065 1,850 Total Use (mil. Bu.) 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,474 13,915 Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,114 1,910 Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.61 $3.85

  3. Corn Production 16 15.1 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.7 13.8 14 13.6 12.4 12.3 12 10.8 10 Billion of Bushels 8 6 4.0 4.0 3.9 4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 United States Brazil Argentina Ukraine Data: NASS

  4. U.S. Feed and Residual Use 6,500 6,132 6,111 6,000 5,853 5,845 5,819 5,778 5,618 5,545 5,535 5,470 5,500 5,304 5,286 5,275 5,128 Millions of Bushels 5,118 5,096 5,002 5,000 4,770 4,512 4,500 4,309 4,000 3,500 3,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feed and Residual Use Data: NASS

  5. U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol 6,000 5,605 5,432 5,376 5,375 5,224 5,200 5,124 5,019 5,000 5,000 4,641 4,591 4,000 3,709 Millions of Bushels 3,049 3,000 2,119 2,000 1,603 1,323 1,168 996 1,000 707 630 0

  6. U.S. Weekly Gasoline Demand 10.5 Millions of Barrels per Day 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 5-Year Avg. Data: EIA

  7. U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Millions of Gallons 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 World Brazil Canada China Columbia India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Philippines UAE UK 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Data: EIA

  8. U.S. Corn Exports 3,000 2,500 2,437 2,439 2,294 2,134 2,125 2,067 1,979 2,000 1,921 1,899 Millions of Bushels 1,867 1,849 1,850 1,831 1,539 1,500 1,000 730 500 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 World Mexico Japan South Korea Columbia Data: FAS GATS

  9. U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price 25% $8 $7 19.83% 20% 19.50% $6 17.46% 16.26% 15.66% Dollars per Bushel $5 14.46% 14.61% 15% 13.94% 13.73% Percent 13.10% 12.75% 12.59% 12.71% $4 11.63% 11.45% 10% 9.37% 9.16% $3 8.65% 7.92% 7.41% $2 5% $1 0% $0 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price

  10. U.S. Average Corn Yield 200 180 160 167 140 bu. per ac . 120 100 80 y = 1.8749t + 59.275 R² = 0.9079 60 40 20 0 Data: NASS

  11. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 thousands Planted 80,000 75,000 70,000 Harvested 65,000 60,000 Data: NASS

  12. Corn Balance Sheet 2019-20 2020-21 USDA 2019-20 USDA 2020-21 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Supply: Planted Acreage (mill. Ac.) 89.9 89.9 94.5 92.1 Harvested Acreage (mill. Ac.) 81.8 81.5 87.1 84.7 Yield (Bu. / Ac.) 167.0 165.3 178.5 177.4 Total Production(mill. Bu.) 13,661 13,472 15,545 15,025 Beginning Stocks(mill. Bu.) 2,114 2,114 1,910 1,671 Imports (mill. Bu.) 50 50 25 25 Total Supply (mill. Bu.) 15,825 15,636 17,480 16,721 Consumption: Feed and Residual (mill. Bu.) 5,275 5,300 5,775 5,425 Food, Seed, and Industrial (mill. Bu.) 6,790 6,790 6,870 6,820 Ethanol (mill. Bu.) 5,375 5,375 5,450 5,400 Exports (mill. Bu.) 1,850 1,865 2,100 2,050 Total Consumption (mill. Bu.) 13,915 13,955 14,745 14,295 Ending Stocks (mill. Bu.) 1,910 1,681 2,735 2,426 Stocks-to-Use 13.7% 12.0% 18.5% 17.0% Average Price ($/bu.) $3.85 $3.95 $3.40 $3.55

  13. Marketing Year Corn Basis - Central Illinois Cents per Bushel -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 10 -5 0 5 6-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 2019-20 27-Sep 4-Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 25-Oct 1-Nov 8-Nov 2018-19 15-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec 20-Dec 27-Dec Average 3 Year 4-Jan 11-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug

  14. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014/ 2015/ 2016/ 2017/ 2018/19 2019/20 15 16 17 18 USDA USDA Estimate Forecast Area Planted 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 76.5 (mil. Acres) Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 82.6 81.7 82.7 89.5 87.6 75.6 Yield (Bu./acre) 47.5 48 52.0 49.3 50.6 46.9 Production (mil. Bu.) 3,927 3,296 4,296 4,412 4,428 3,550 Imports (mil. Bu.) 33 24 22 22 14 20 Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,735 4,880 4,483 Crush (mil. Bu.) 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,092 2,105 Seed and Residual 146 122 146 113 128 128 (mil. Bu.) Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,842 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,748 1,775 Total Use (mil. Bu.) 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,297 3,967 4,008 Ending Stocks 191 197 302 438 913 475 (mil. Bu.) Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $8.48 $9.00

  15. Soybean Production 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 Billions of Bushels 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 United States Brazil Argentina Data: NASS

  16. U.S. Soybean Crush 2,200 2,105 2,092 2,055 2,000 1,901 1,886 1,873 1,808 1,803 1,800 1,752 1,739 1,734 Millions of Bushels 1,703 1,700 1,696 1,689 1,662 1,648 1,640 1,615 1,600 1,530 1,400 1,200 1,000

  17. U.S. Soybean Exports 2,500 2,166 2,129 2,000 1,942 1,842 1,775 1,748 1,639 Million Bushels 1,505 1,499 1,500 1,366 1,328 1,279 1,159 1,116 1,097 1,064 1,044 996 1,000 940 887 500 0 U.S. Soybean Exports China Mexico Japan Data: FAS GATS

  18. China Soybean Imports 4,000 3,458 3,436 3,500 3,123 3,058 3,033 3,000 2,879 Millions of Bushels 2,535 2,500 2,200 2,113 1,923 2,000 1,819 1,510 1,500 1,390 1,056 1,041 948 1,000 787 622 487 500 382 0 Data: FAS

  19. Brazil and U.S. Monthly Exports 500 450 400 350 Millions of Bushels 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug U.S. 2017-18 U.S. 2018-19 Brazil 2017-18 Brazil 2018-19 Data: COMEX VIS and FAS

  20. U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price 25% $16 23.01% $14 20% 18.63% $12 15.60% Dollars per Bushel $10 15% Percent $8 11.85% 10.19% 10% $6 8.84% 8.57% 7.17% 7.09% 6.71% 6.55% 6.38% $4 5.35% 4.99% 4.95% 5% 4.53% 4.53% 4.43% 4.49% $2 2.65% 0% $0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio Avg. Farm Price

  21. U.S. Soybean Average Yield 60 50 46.9 Bushels per Acre 40 30 20 y = 0.4362x + 21.158 R² = 0.8942 10 0 Data: NASS

  22. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 Planted 75,000 thousands 70,000 Harvested 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 Data: NASS

  23. Soybean Balance Sheet 2019-20 2020-21 USDA 2019-20 USDA 2020-21 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Supply: Planted Acreage (mil.) 76.5 76.5 84.0 85.4 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 75.6 75.4 83.2 84.6 Yield (bu./ac.) 46.9 45.8 50.5 50.3 Production (mil. bu.) 3,550 3,453 4,200 4,255 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 913 913 475 383 Imports (mil. bu.) 20 20 20 20 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,483 4,386 4,695 4,658 Consumption: Crush (mil. bu.) 2,105 2,105 2,135 2,115 Export (mil. bu.) 1,775 1,770 1,895 1,800 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 128 128 132 134 Total Consumption (mil. bu.) 4,008 4,003 4,162 4,049 Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 475 383 533 609 Stocks-to-use 11.8% 9.6% 12.8% 15.0% Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.00 $8.90 $8.85 $8.50

  24. Marketing Year Soybean Basis - Central Illinois Cents per Bushel -75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 6-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep 2019-20 4-Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 25-Oct 1-Nov 8-Nov 15-Nov 2018-19 22-Nov 29-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec 20-Dec 27-Dec 4-Jan 11-Jan Average 3 Year 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug

  25. • Thank You • Questions?

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