Contributions of Observations to Assessments of Anthropogenic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Contributions of Observations to Assessments of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Riley Duren Chief Systems Engineer Earth Science & Technology Directorate Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology March 4, 2010 contributions from many colleagues at NASA, DOE labs, NOAA, OSTP, and other agencies and organizations 1

outline 
 Disclaimers
 • Context:
carbon
cycle
&
key
terminology
 • Global,
regionally
resolved,
observa;onally
derived
es;mates
of
emissions
 • Current
&
future
“surface‐based”
(air/land/sea)
observa;ons
 • Current
&
future
space‐based
observa;ons
 • The
need
for
well‐posed
ques;ons
 • Other
aIributes
of
monitoring
systems
(beyond
observa;ons)
 • Summary
 • – Exis;ng
capabili;es
are
good
but
are
research‐oriented
 – Research
capabili;es
COULD
be
leveraged
to
support
policy
assessment

 
 – Need
for
interna;onal
transparency
and
collabora;on
represents
an
opportunity
for
the
US References
 • 2

Disclaimers 
 1. This
material
does
not
represent
official
statements
or
policies
 of
NASA
or
any
other
federal
agency. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 2. Our
schedule
today
precludes
a
comprehensive
summary
of
all
 observing
assets,
models,
data
systems,
decision‐support
tools,
 organiza;ons,
sectors,
and
programs

 Instead,
an
entrée:
observa;ons
of
atmospheric
GHGs
 – References
(p14)
offer
a
broader
treatment
of
GHG/carbon
 observa;ons
including
land,
oceans,
and
other
needs
 and acronyms are summarized on slide 16 3

Concentra;ons,
Fluxes,
&
Emissions 
 
 (and
the
need
for
a
;ered
set
of
observa;ons) Amount of atmospheric CO 2 can be expressed as a total stock (GtC) or as a concentration/mole fraction (ppm) 828 GtC  388 ppm Carbon Fluxes/ Observations of greenhouse & other gases “flows”: (FOCUS FOR TODAY) Sources(+) & Sinks(-) Terrestrial (land) carbon observations Ocean carbon observations Source: N Sour ce: NASA Ear ASA Earth Obser th Observa vator tory y GtC = 1 giga-ton of carbon (1 billion tons) Net Emission: sum total of Fluxes (sources & sinks) over a given area 4 for some time interval (typically a year)

Assessing
reported
emissions
using
a
synthesis
of
 satellite
observa;ons
and
atmospheric
modeling 
 Example: global Carbon Monoxide (CO) annual net emissions (2004-2005) derived from concentration observations from MOPITT 1 , AIRS 2 , & SCIAMACHY 3 Colors indicate ratio between the observationally-derived and reported emissions (possible factor of 2+ underreporting in some regions) CO is not a direct GHG but is a good combustion tracer and a well-studied example of this concept 5 1 Canada/US, 2 US, 3 EU Kopacz et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 855–876, 2010

Towards
regional‐scale
observa;onally
derived
GHG
data 
 Global Scale 1 zone 1958- present Sub-continental Scale 22 zones 1995- present “Regional” Scale 65,000+ zones source: TransCom Future 6 source: EDGAR

Current
surface‐based
observa;ons
of
GHGs 
 Concentrations  flux inversions AGAGE 
 NASA
 
 Carbon 
 &
partners 
 Tracker 
 (from
 Switzerland, 
 NOAA Italy, Norway, Japan, Korea, and China) 
 TCCON 
 
 GAW 
 NASA 
 WMO HIPPO 
 
 NSF/NOAA MAMAP 
 Direct fluxes 
 IUP/GFZ FluxNet 
 DOE,
NSF,
 DOC,
 
 CAMS 
 USDA,
 
 US assets highlighted 
 DOE NASA,
WMO 
 in green font (25% of FluxNet & 50% of GAW are US assets) 7

Future
(planned)
surface‐based
GHG
observa;ons 
 NOAA
North
America
network
enhancements
(2011‐2015)
 • Double
the
number
of
towers
and
aircraa
sites
 – Deploy
“air
core”
ver;cal
profile
sampling
on
balloons
&
aircraa
 – Source: Tans, 2010 DOE
accelerator
mass
spectrometry
enhancements
 • Increase
throughput
to
improve

 14 CO 2 
(fossil‐fuel
tracer)
accuracy – European
Integrated
Carbon
Observing
 
 

 • System
‐
ICOS
(2014)
 Integrates
exis;ng
&
new
observa;ons
with
a

common

 – 






data
system
 Source: Ciais et al., 2009 8

Current
satellite
GHG
observa;ons 
 AIRS, TES, IASI SCIAMACHY, GOSAT AIRS CO2 animation http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ Source: Chahine et al., 2008 thermal-emission reflected sunlight SCIAMACHY Methane (2003 average) Currently Operational Missions Source: Buchwitz et al., 2007 9 US assets listed in green *CO 2 products often have different precision and spatial scale than for individual samples

Future
(planned)
satellite
GHG
observa;ons 
 OCO cloud-clear soundings (100,000+ per day) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) 1-Day 3-Days OCO animation http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/oco/multimedia Source: Miller, Crisp, et al., 2009 ASCENDS Planned Missions 2013-2010 Day/night and high latitude capability 10 US assets listed in green *CO 2 products often have different precision and spatial scale than for individual samples

Requirements
for
 policy‐relevant
 observa;ons 
 depend
cri;cally
on
 well‐posed
ques,ons 
 Examples of policy relevant questions where observationally-derived information may apply: Are the actual Does the actual carbon Are Country-X’s emissions from stock match the reported actual emissions individual point exceeding their- baseline for a forest sources in Country-X carbon offset credit by reported (national exceeding their Country-X or Project-Y? inventory) emissions? reported emissions? Are disturbances Are policies meeting How are individual occurring in Country-X or the desired objective point source emitters Project-Y that impact the (limiting GHG being operated claimed carbon credit (is concentrations)? (dynamic behavior)? the offset permanent)? I. Point Source II. Global GHG III. Global Carbon Monitoring Flux Monitoring Stock Monitoring 11

Observa;ons
are
necessary
but
not
sufficient 
 (other
aIributes
of
a
robust
monitoring
system)
 • Driven by Policy Needs – Must support timely decision-making & mitigation/adaptation assessment – Convert data to policy-relevant information on appropriate spatio-temporal scales • Actionable Products – Must distinguish anthropogenic from natural background – Carbon forecasts (prognostics as well as diagnostics) • Global Coverage – Detect “leakage” – No denied territory – Carbon stocks and flows in terrestrial biosphere & ocean (not just atmosphere) • Transparent, Unassailable, & Objective – Traceability and public availability of data, models, & products – Relentless attention to bias/errors (regular calibration & validation) • Sustained, Flexible, & Scalable – Initially measure CO 2 , followed by CH 4 & other Kyoto gases – Learn (iterate) as we go – Continued operation over decades 12 Source: GHG Information System collaboration between DOE labs, NASA centers, NOAA and series of interagency workshops and meetings involving ~30 organizations

Summary 
 1. Current
observa;onal
(&
modeling/analysis)
capabili;es
are
significant
&
 improving
‐
but
most
were
designed
for
scien;fic
research,
not
decision‐support.


 2. Research
capabili;es
 could 
be
leveraged
to
support
policy
assessments
 if 
we…
 Integrate
atmo/land/ocean
observa;ons
with
improved
models
and
data
systems
 – Provide
a
common
framework
to
compare/reconcile
inventories
and
observa;ons
 – – Avoid
cri;cal
data
gaps
(replace
lost/aging
satellites
and
sustain
ground
networks)
 Strategically
plan
&
design
a
sustained
capability
(with
new
assets
as
needed)
 – Collaborate
(decision‐makers
&
informa;on
providers)
to
define
requirements
 – 3. Transparency
and
interna;onal
collabora;on/coordina;on
will
be
necessary
for
 most
GHG
monitoring
applica;ons
–
this
is
an
opportunity
for
US
leadership.
 Thank
you!
 13

Backup
material 
 14