Sustainability impact assessments of Sustainability impact - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sustainability impact assessments of Sustainability impact assessments of policy changes – policy changes – recent development ecent development of analytical modeling in Europe of analytical modeling in Europe Marcus Lindner, Risto Päivinen, Hans Verkerk, Taru Palosuo, Tommi Suominen European Forest Institute, Joensuu

Sustainability Assessments Introduction – The sustainability concept evolved over the centuries • Sustainable yield of forest resources (Hans Carl von Carlowitz; 1713) • Sustainable world system (Dennis L. Meadows; 1972: The Limits of Growth) • Sustainable development (Brundtland Report 1987) • Environmental, social, and economic pillars of sustainability (cf. EU sustainable development strategy, Gothenburg 2001 and EU Council decision 2006) 2008: Sustainable resource use AND sectoral value chains

What are the effects of policy decision on social, economic and environmental sustainability? Two large European Integrated [research] Projects study this question with analytical tools • SENSOR develops science ‐ based forecasting Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT). They allow the assessment of land use policy effects on sustainable development at regional scale for Europe. � Forestry is covered as one of six sectoral land uses • EFORWOOD develops a Tool for the Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) of Forestry ‐ Wood Chains. � The complete forest value chains are covered, including forest resource management, forest ‐ industry interactions, consumption and end ‐ of ‐ life of wood based products

SENSOR: Sustainability Impact Assessment of multifunctional land use www.sensor-ip.org www.sensor-ip.eu 09/06/2008 4

Impact assessment Nature Transport Agriculture Forestry Conservation Infrastructure Energy Tourism Provision Human Cultural & Industry Land Infra- Abiotic Biotic Ecosystem based of work health & aesthetic & structure resources resources processed production recreation values services Environment Social Economic www.sensor-ip.eu 09/06/2008 5

SENSOR Model Framework Land use policy scenario Indicators impacts (~40) Impacts are calculated for environmental, social and Forest sector economical dimensions of model sustainability (EFISCEN) Land-use allocation model (CLUE-s) Macro- Indicator value Forest fire risk economical model (NEMESIS) Dead wood Carbon sequestration Policy variable Agricultural model (CAPRI) Jansson et al. 2008

EFISCEN modelling framework Wood demand Manage- Volume-class ment strategy Forest area change Age-class 09/06/2008 7

Further work on forest indicators � Include social and economical indicators in EFISCEN � Indicator selection criteria – Relevant indicators (e.g. MCPFE) – Compatible with EFISCEN structure � Selected indicators: Carbon stock Fellings and Biomass Deadwood Workforce increment revenue 09/06/2008 8

Example of indicator impacts � Normalised indicator impacts in 2030 � Baseline (2005) = 1 Nordic Central and Alpic Deadwood Deadwood 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 Workforce Carbon Workforce Carbon 0.5 0.5 0 0 Biomass revenues Resource utilisation Biomass revenues Resource utilisation Baseline Biodiversity Bio-energy Baseline Biodiversity Bio-energy 09/06/2008 9

The EU Integrated Project The EU Integrated Project EFORWOOD EFORWOOD Tools for Sustainability Impact Tools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of the Forestry-Wood Chain Assessment of the Forestry-Wood Chain Main project objective is to develop a Tool for the Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) of Forestry-Wood Chains (FWC)

ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forest ‐ Wood Chains

ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forest ‐ Wood Chains ToSIA measures volume flows and sustainability indicators

Indicator development (Ewald Rametsteiner et al.) Based on : - already existing European & international sustainability indicator Sets EU-SIA 32 topics -- -- Guidelines Eurostat – SDI 15 level 1- 47 level 2- 99 level 3 – indicators indicators indicators MCPFE --- --- 35 indicators CSD 15 themes 40 sub-themes 60 indicators PAIS 5 themes 16 issues 57 indicators

Sustainability Indicators Economic Environmental Social Gross value added Energy generation and use Employment 14.1. Greenhouse gas emissions Greenhouse gas emissions Wages and salaries Production costs 14.2. Carbon storage and carbon stocks 14.3. Greenhouse gas Occupational safety Transport distance and freight Resource / material balance 17.1. Area of forest and other wooded land and health use Water use 17.2. Growing stock 17.3. Balance of net increment and annual Soil, water and air pollution Education and Total production fellings Training Generation of waste Investment and Forest biodiversity research & Forest resources development

ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forest ‐ Wood Chains Sustainability indicators are linked to all production processes

Forest Resources Management Forest Resources Management The analytical The analytical S A production process t framework framework a g e Forest to Industry Interactions Forest to Industry Interactions s FWC is a chain of processes R e Industrial Processing and Manufacturing Industrial Processing and Manufacturing - c y c l i n g Industry to consumer interactions Industry to consumer interactions l E i f n e d - o f - Options = a production process in a selected FWC = production processes in optional FWCs

Sustainability Indicator Calculation 1. Take indicator value per unit of reference flow 2. Multiply with material flow through a process 3. = sustainability indicator value for the process M2 M2 S A production process t a g e M3 M3 s 0,2 person hours/ m³/sawing M4 M4 Re-cycling A x 10 m ³ = 2 person hours 0,4 person hours/ m³/sawing B x 10 m³ = 4 person hours M5 M5 End-of- life

Aggregation of indicator results Employment (ID 003895) M2 M2 S A production process t a • Identify same g e indicator for M3 M3 s different processes in calculated chains M4 M4 Re-cycling 3 4 • Sum up indicators 11 of the same ID in M5 M5 3 End-of- a calculated chain 2 life 1 TOTAL 42.5 person hours 50 person hours

Sustainability Impact Impact Assessment Impact of changing material flow A to material flow B on social indicator ’employment’ = Employment hours B – employment hours A = 50 – 42.5 = + 7.5

How to compare changes in different indicator values? If the impact on employment is + 7,5 h but at the same time waste generation increases +2%, is the total impact positive or negative?

Sustainability Impact Evaluation Cost-Benefit Multi-Criteria Analysis (CBA) Analysis (MCA) Converts apples and compares apples oranges into € and oranges

Software for Weighting of indicators

Software for Ranking of alternatives

ToSIA application: comparing two different bio ‐ energy supply chains for heating a private household 1) Production of pellets – used in single family homes 2) Chipping of biomass – used in single family home via district heating Source: Vapo Source: Vapo Source: Vapo Source: Vapo Jouko Parviainen, Josek Oy Source:Vapo

Results of the comparison a) effects of additional extraction of forest biomass on sustainability increase Indicator P Chain P&C Chain Unit in % 87 1. Production costs 318 737 595 078 euro 194 3. Total heat consumption 5 604 318 1 6491 609 MJ 120 4. Employment 0,99 2,18 person a 101 7. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 63 126 tons CO2 eqv. n.a. 8. Maintenance of soil quality 0 5 382 kg 34 9.1 transport distance 272 416 363 846 tkm 9. Transport 68 9.2 freight transported 1 679 2 822 tons 21 1 942 126 2 348 295 10.1 energy use MJ 10. Energy 224 6 404 935 20 725 555 MJ 10.2 heat generation Based on: � one reference year (2007) � a certain land area (1803 ha)

ToSIA results a) Pellet and Chips chain b) Pellet chain Indicator P & C Chain P Chain � � GHG bal. � � Employment � � Energy bal. � � Costs �� � Soil maint.

ToSIA perspectives: How you look at things makes a lot of difference!

Different ToSIA perspectives at sustainability impact assessment We grew up only 35 km I used to from here... live in Northern Sweden... I will become a nice table... ...in my earlier I will be read lives I had in downtown other carreers London! ”forest-defined” ”product-defined” ”industry-defined”

Conclusions on Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) • Quantitative approach to sustainability assessment • Trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability • Flexible tool - User can select : system boundaries, indicators, weights ... • Quality of assessment depends on quality of data

More Conclusions ... • Transparent treatment of stakeholder preferences • Designed for the demands of policy makers • Many other potential applications

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