Concept Study Plans and Programs Committee Item 10 December 9, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Concept Study Plans and Programs Committee Item 10 December 9, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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E10-1 Item 10 Enclosure Plans and Programs Committee December 9, 2014 San Francisco Planning Department T-Third Phase 3 Concept Study Plans and Programs Committee Item 10 December 9, 2014 E10-2 San Francisco Planning Department Origins

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SLIDE 1

T-Third – Phase 3 Concept Study

Plans and Programs Committee Item 10 December 9, 2014

San Francisco Planning Department

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Item 10 Enclosure Plans and Programs Committee December 9, 2014

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SLIDE 2
  • Interest in the extension due to T-Third Phase 2

(Central Subway) – especially after tunnel boring machines reach North Beach; preserving right-of-way

  • Interest from the Board of Supervisors (Sup. Chiu), public
  • Funds approved for limited consultant assistance by

SFCTA Board – March 2014

  • Three agency team: SFMTA, SFCTA and SF Planning

Department

  • Concept Study started in March 2014 and a draft report

completed in October 2014

Origins of the Study

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 3

Concept Alignments

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 4

Concept Alignments

Number 1-1 1-2 2A-1 2A-2 2A-3 2A-4 2A-5 2A-6 2B-1 2B-2 2B-3 2B-4 3-1 3-2 Street (s) Columbus Columbus Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach One-Way Loop One-Way Loop Subway / Surface Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface / Subway Subway / Surface Subway / Surface / Subway Subway Station (s) North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square

NOT FEASIBLE

San Francisco Planning Department

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Columbus Powell

NOT FEASIBLE

Powell-Beach

One-Way Loop

Data Highlights 4 Corridors 14 Concept Alignments 2 or 3 stations Subway and Subway-Surface combination

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SLIDE 5

B C D A

San Francisco Planning Department

Constructability Ground Cross Sections

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Powell Beach Columbus

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SLIDE 6

Constructability Issues

Areas of possible liquefaction Areas at risk with sea-level rise

San Francisco Planning Department

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Data Highlight No Fatal Flaws

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SLIDE 7

Travel Time Estimates

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Minutes Concept Alignments 1-1 1-2 2A-1 2A-2 2A-3 2A-4 2A-5 2A-6 2B-1 2B-2 2B-3 2B-4 3-1 3-2

Not Feasible Not Feasible

Legend

One-way Round Trip

Number 1-1 1-2 2A-1 2A-2 2A-3 2A-4 2A-5 2A-6 2B-1 2B-2 2B-3 2B-4 3-1 3-2 Street (s) Columbus Columbus Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach One-Way Loop One-Way Loop Subway / Surface Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface / Subway Subway / Surface Subway / Surface / Subway Subway Station (s) North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square

San Francisco Planning Department

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Data Highlights

Concept One-way Round Trip Rating_________

2A-2 = 3 mins 7 mins fastest 3-2 Loop = N/A 8 mins fastest loop 2B-1 = 7½ mins 15 mins slowest Columbus

Powell Powell-Beach

One-Way Loop

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SLIDE 8

Travel Time Comparison

Existing Caltrain / Ballpark to Fisherman’s Wharf Transit 30-40 Bicycle 30-40 Private Auto 10-15 Ferry Building to Fisherman’s Wharf Transit 10-15 Bicycle 5-10 Private Auto 3- 5 Market St. / Union Square to Fisherman’s Wharf Transit 20-30* Bicycle 15-20 Private Auto 10-15

* Plus up to 60 minute wait

T-Third Phase 2+3 – Caltrain & Ballpark to Fisherman’s Wharf Columbus 14-17 Powell 13-17 Powell-Beach 15-20

Data Highlight 50% - 65% quicker than existing transit service

Chinatown Station

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 9

Daily Ridership Estimates

74,000

Phase 2 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 1 Passengers T-Third LRT Passenger Ridership Estimates

T-Third Alignment 1-2 Daily Ridership Estimates

115,000 Phase 2 + Phase 3 74,000 41,000

Data Highlights

  • 55% increase in T-Line passenger levels
  • At least 1/4 of the increase is from new

trips on the Muni system

  • Up to 3/4 of new trips are passengers

moving to the T-Line, relieving

  • vercrowding and pass-ups on buses,

cable cars, and the F-Line

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 10

Peak Ridership and Capacity

3,812

Phase 2

4,196

Phase 3 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1 2 Passengers T-Third LRT Passenger Ridership Estimates

T-Third Concept Alignment 1-2 Peak Hr. / Peak Direction Ridership Estimates

T-Third LRT Vehicle Passenger Capacity

5,712

2.5 minute trains 4,080 680 952 3,812 384 4,760 3.0 minute trains 4,080 3.5 minute trains

Data Highlights

  • At the maximum load point (MLP) –

T-Line trains spaced no more than 3 minutes apart will be required to meet projected passenger levels

  • Peak ridership changes less than

daily ridership due to the all-day nature of demand in these neighborhoods.

  • By 2030, T-Line trains are

scheduled at 2.5 minutes apart in the peak period

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 11

Existing Land Use

Data Highlights Planning Department analyzed:

  • Land Use
  • Demographic

conditions

  • Development

potential

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 12

Value Capture Opportunities

Estimated Bonding Capacity of local financing mechanisms*

Concept Alignment 1-2 analysis

(* all figures in 2014 dollars)

San Francisco Planning Department

Data Highlights

  • CFD = $180-$220 million
  • 2/3 voter approval
  • IFD = $100-$110 million
  • 55% voter approval
  • SpAD = $90 million in
  • simple majority approval
  • Modest revenue

differences between current zoning and limited zoning increases

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SLIDE 13

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Capital Costs (2014 $ Estimate)

Number 1-1 1-2 2A-1 2A-2 2A-3 2A-4 2A-5 2A-6 2B-1 2B-2 2B-3 2B-4 3-1 3-2 Street (s) Columbus Columbus Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach One-Way Loop One-Way Loop Subway / Surface Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface / Subway Subway / Surface Subway / Surface / Subway Subway Station (s) North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square

Dollars (Millions)

Not Feasible Not Feasible

Data Highlights

Concept Cost Estimate Rating___________

2A-1 $ 440 million lowest cost 2B-2 $ 1.410 billion highest cost

San Francisco Planning Department

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Columbus Powell Powell-Beach

One-Way Loop

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SLIDE 14

Cost / Benefit Analysis

Data Highlight $1.78* - $2.87* = 2040 projected cost per new trip – (FTA Formula) Concept Alignment 1-2 (low cost and high cost estimate)

* Costs are in 2014 dollars

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 15

Potential Funding

Federal Sources Federal Transit Administration (FTA) New Starts program Local Sources Sales Tax (Proposition K) Future Transportation Funding Measures Land Use Value Capture Infrastructure Finance District (IFD) Community Facilities District (Mello-Roos) (CFD) Special Assessment District (SpAD) Other Sources Joint Development ?

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 16

North Beach Station

Rail to North Beach Facts

  • New environ. review process required
  • Tradeoffs with different construction

methods

  • Offstreet construction access lessens

neighborhood disruption

San Francisco Planning Department

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Pagoda Palace Site Facts

  • SFMTA has active lease until May 10, 2015

to use parcel as a TBM retrieval site

  • SFMTA has “right of first refusal” to

purchase if owner decides to sell property

  • Owner preparing to build 19 units of

housing

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SLIDE 17

Summary Evaluation

Of Concept Alternatives

NF = Not Feasible Number 1-1 1-2 2A-1 2A-2 2A-3 2A-4 2A-5 2A-6 2B-1 2B-2 2B-3 2B-4 3-1 3-2 Street (s) Columbus Columbus Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach Powell-Beach One-Way Loop One-Way Loop Subway / Surface Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface Subway Subway / Surface / Subway Subway / Surface Subway / Surface / Subway Subway Station (s) North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square North Beach Kirkland Yard Conrad Square

Passenger Experience

+ +

  • +

NF NF +

Operational Efficiency

  • +
  • +
  • +

NF NF + +

System Performance

+ + +

  • +

NF NF + +

Local Operations

  • +
  • +
  • +

NF NF

  • +

Infrastructure Resiliency

+ + +

  • +

NF NF

Construction Disturbance

  • NF

NF

  • Capital Const.

Cost and Risk

+ + + + +

  • NF

NF +

Total

  • 1

5

  • 2

5

  • 3
  • 2
  • 4
  • 6
  • 3

3 NF NF 1 3

Capital Cost (2014 $$) (millions)

407- 482 848- 933 367- 442 837- 912 406- 480 875- 950 454- 529 924- 999 443- 518 1,333- 1,408 NF NF 496- 571 1,087- 1,139

Constructability Rating

4 5 3/4 4 3/4 2 3/4 2 3/4 4 1 2 3 3/4

San Francisco Planning Department

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Columbus Powell Powell-Beach

One-Way Loop

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SLIDE 18

Concept Alignments

San Francisco Planning Department

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SLIDE 19

Next Steps

MTC - San Francisco Bay Area Core Capacity Transit Study (2015) SFMTA Rail Capacity Strategy (2014-2015) T-Third Phase 3 Concept Study (2014) Share with public and SF officials

San Francisco Planning Department

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SF Transportation Plan Update (2014)

Use data in Rail Capacity Strategy Use data in SF Transportation Plan

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