Concentrations and sources Gary Fuller, Kings College London - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PM2.5 in London and the UK Concentrations and sources

Gary Fuller, King’s College London

Contents

• The Public Health Framework PM2.5 health indicator
• What is PM2.5?
• PM2.5 health impacts
• How does PM2.5 vary spatially?
• How does PM2.5 vary in time?
• PM2.5 sources to be controlled.
• Public air quality information.

Contents

3.1 The mortality effect of anthropogenic particulate air pollution (measured as fine particulate matter, PM2.5*) per 100,000 population.

Mortality Burden: To be expressed as attributable deaths and associated years of life lost. (a) Attributable deaths are obtained by multiplying local PM2.5 data (population-weighted modelled background anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations, to be supplied by Defra – see below) by annual deaths (age 30+)** and the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP)-recommended relative risk of 6% increase in mortality per 10 μg/m3 PM2.5. (b) Years of life lost associated with these attributable deaths are then calculated (eg by summing age-specific life expectancies for each attributable death). Data on the resident population can be used to express the burden per 100,000 people. * PM2.5 means the mass (in micrograms) per cubic metre of air of individual particles with an aerodynamic diameter generally less than 2.5 micrometers. PM2.5 is also known as fine particulate matter. ** The national estimates (COMEAP, 2010) have been calculated using data on deaths at ages 30+, as this reflects the study in which the relative risk was reported. COMEAP considers that it might be appropriate to calculate local estimates using data on total deaths. DoH, 2012

PM10 (10 mm) PM2.5 (2.5 mm) Ultrafine PM (0.1 mm)

Human Hair (60 mm diameter)

PM2.5 (2.5 mm) PM10 (10 mm)

Relative size of particles

Particulate matter associated with health effects is invisible

PM2.5 associations with life expectancy (Pope et al, NEJM, 2009, 360: 376-386)

6

• equivalent of 29,000 premature deaths

due to breathing tiny particles released into the air (in 2008 data)

• the average loss of life was 6 months,

(although the actual amount varies between individuals, from a few days to many years)

• Economic cost of the order of £8-20

billion per year (from IGCB) Published December 2010

Across the UK PM2.5......

7

• an impact on mortality equivalent

to 4,267 deaths in London in 2008, within a range of 756 to 7,965.

• A permanent reduction in PM2.5

concentrations of 1μg/m3 would gain 400,000 years of life for the current population (2008) in London and a further 200,000 years for those born during that period.

• followed for the lifetime of the

current population, a 1 μg/m3 decrease would yield a life gain equivalent to an average 3 weeks per member of the 2008 population.

Across London PM2.5....

Background PM2.5 across the UK 2008

Brookes et al 2012 for Defra

PM2.5 across London 2008

King’s College London

Annual mean PM2.5 across London 2009

(After Lenshcow et al 2001)

5 10 15 20 25 30

200010 199310 198610 197910 197210 196510 195810 195110 194410 193710 193010 192310 191610 190910 190210 189510 188810 188110 187410 186710 186010 185310 184610 183910 183210 182510 181810 181110 180410 179710 179010 178310 177610 176910 176210 175510 174810 174110 173410 172710 172010 171310 170610 169910 169210 168510 167810 167110 166410 165710 165010 164310 163610 162910 162210 161510 160810

Annual mean ug m-3 North South Primary PM2.5 from London South east background PM2.5

Modelling-King's College London

date Concentration (g m

3)

20 40 60 80 100

PM

10

20 40 60 80 Jan 01 Jan 15 Feb 01 Feb 15 Mar 01 Mar 15

PM

2.5

PM10 PM2.5

PM2.5 variation in time North Kensington Jan – Apr 2012

Episode 1 – 14th-18th January

date Concentration

10 20 30 40 50 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan Species Chloride Elemental Carbon Nitrate Organic Aerosol (Cooking) Organic Aerosol (Hydrocarbon-like) Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 1) Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 2) Organic Aerosol (Solid Fuel) Sulphate Water

Episode 1 – 14th-18th January

Chloride 17% Elemental Carbon 15% COA 5% HOA 3% SFOA 8% OOA 1 3% OOA2 7% Nitrate 32% Sulphate 7% Water 3%

date Concentration (g m

3)

20 40 60 80 100

PM

10

20 40 60 80 Jan 01 Jan 15 Feb 01 Feb 15 Mar 01 Mar 15

PM

2.5

PM10 PM2.5

PM2.5 variation in time North Kensington Jan – Apr 2012

Episode 2 – 10th -14th February

Low temperature Long Range transport

Episode 2 – 10th-14th February

date Concentration

20 40 60 80 10-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb Species Chloride Elemental Carbon Nitrate Organic Aerosol (Cooking) Organic Aerosol (Hydrocarbon-like) Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 1) Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 2) Organic Aerosol (Solid Fuel) Sulphate Water

Episode 2 – 10th-14th February

Chloride 6% Elemental Carbon 9% COA 3% HOA 2% SFOA 3% OOA 1 3% OOA2 7% Nitrate 53% Sulphate 9% Water 5%

date Concentration (g m

3)

20 40 60 80 100

PM

10

20 40 60 80 Jan 01 Jan 15 Feb 01 Feb 15 Mar 01 Mar 15

PM

2.5

PM10 PM2.5

North Kensington Jan – Apr 2012

• Low temperature
• Poor dispersion
• Mean 30% urban

sources

• Hourly peak 60%

urban sources

• Plus possible local

nitrate formation

• 17% sea salt
• 50% from outside

London

• Long range

transport

• Low temperature
• Approx 15%

urban sources

• Plus possible local

nitrate formation

• 5% sea salt
• 80% from outside

London

• Hourly peak >90%

from outside London

Air pollution this morning

Daily variation in PM2.5 across the UK

Daily mean concentrations close to roads and industry Laxon et al 2012, AQEG 2012 (draft).

Industrial Roadside

Daily variation in PM2.5 across the UK

Daily mean concentrations in urban background areas Laxon et al 2012, AQEG 2012 (draft).

Winter Summer

PM from wood burning

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Mean PM concentration ug m-3 Wales - big city England - towns England - big cities England - rural Scotland - big cities

Controlling PM2.5

Controlling the regional background Heavy industry, shipping, diesel road transport (ammonia from agriculture!) But are secondary inorganic pollutants the most toxic? Controlling urban sources Diesel road transport , solid fuel heating (wood, coal in N Ireland). (Catering???) Some evidence points to urban sources as having proportionally greater toxicity Minimising exposure Increased public awareness to reduce emissions and change travel patterns in highly polluted areas. Could be part of an active travel agenda.

Air quality information UK-Air

Air quality information LondonAir

Air quality information LondonAir

Acknowledgements

• Funders
• Defra, Natural Environment Research Council & the

London boroughs who support the LAQN

• Colleagues at King’s
• David Dajnak and Sean Beevers.
• David Green, Anja Tremper, Max Priestman, Anna Font,

Ana Beckett, Andrew Grieve, Ellie Norris

• National Physical Laboratory
• David Butterfield, Sonya Beccaceci
• University of Manchester
• James Allan, Nicky Young

Controlling PM2.5

Controlling the regional background Heavy industry, shipping, diesel road transport (ammonia from agriculture!) But are secondary inorganic pollutants the most toxic? Controlling urban sources Diesel road transport , solid fuel heating (wood, coal in N Ireland). (Catering???) Some evidence points to urban sources as having proportionally greater toxicity Minimising exposure Increased public awareness to reduce emissions and change travel patterns in highly polluted areas. Could be part of an active travel agenda.