Company Presentation
OCTOBER 2018
Company Presentation OCTOBER 2018 Cautionary Statement This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Company Presentation OCTOBER 2018 Cautionary Statement This presentation includes "forward-looking statements". Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond ARs
OCTOBER 2018
This presentation includes "forward-looking statements". Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond AR’s control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this release regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding future commodity prices, future production targets, completion of natural gas or natural gas liquids transportation projects, future earnings, Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX, Stand-Alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX, Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Stand-Alone Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, continued utilization of existing infrastructure, gas marketability, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, acreage quality, access to multiple gas markets, expected drilling and development plans (including the number, type, lateral length and location of wells to be drilled, the number and type of drilling rigs and the number of wells per pad), projected well costs, future financial position, future technical improvements and future marketing opportunities, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release. Although Antero believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the AR’s control, incident to the exploration for and development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability
uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company undertakes no
except as required by applicable law. This presentation includes certain financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). These measures include (i) Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX, (ii) Stand-Alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX, (iii) Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, (iv) Stand-Alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, (v) Free Cash
certain additional information regarding these measures, including the most comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. ANTERO RESOURCES | OCTOBER 2018 PRESENTATION
Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as “AR” in the presentation, Antero Midstream Partners LP is denoted as “AM” and Antero Midstream GP LP is denoted as “AMGP”, which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols.
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ANTERO RESOURCES | OCTOBER 2018 PRESENTATION
Market Cap……….……........... Enterprise Value….…………… Corporate Debt Ratings……… Stand-Alone Leverage……….. Net Production (2018E)…....... Liquids................................ 3P Reserves………..…........... C2+ NGLs(1)........................... Condensate......................... Net Acres………….…...……… Core Drilling Locations………. Hedge Mark to Market……….. AR Midstream Ownership (53%) $6.3B $10.1B Ba2 / BB+ / BBB- 2.6x 2.7 Bcfe/d 130,000 Bbl/d 54.6 Tcfe 2,131 MMBbls 131 MMBbls 620,000 3,295 $1.2B $3.0B
Note: Equity market data as of 9/20/18. Balance sheet data, hedge mark to market as of 6/30/18. Reserves as of 12/31/2017. Enterprise value excludes AM net debt. See 2018 Guidance in Appendix. (1) C2+ 3P Reserves contain 1,318 MMBbls of C3+ NGLs and 812 MMBbls of ethane. Assumes approximately 31% ethane recovery leaving 1,808 MMBbls of ethane in the natural gas stream.
Antero Resources Profile
Antero Acreage SW Marcellus Core Ohio Utica Core
A $17B Integrated Natural Gas and NGL Business
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ANTERO RESOURCES | ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
Note: Enterprise value as of 9/20/18. AR E&P enterprise value excludes $3.0 Bn of ownership value in AM and AM net debt. (1) Sponsors represent Warburg Pincus, Yorktown & senior management.
100% Incentive Distribution Rights (IDRs)
NYSE: AMGP Enterprise Value: $3.2B No Ratings NYSE: AM Enterprise Value: $7.1B Corp Ratings: Ba2 / BB+ / BBB- NYSE: AR E&P Enterprise Value: $7.1B Corp Ratings: Ba2 / BB+ / BBB-
58% 42%
Sponsors(1) Sponsors(1)
53% 27% 73% 47%
Public Public Public
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116 33% 10% 34% 15% 11% 11% 16% 11% 13% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 AR EOG RRC DVN APC COP OXY MRO NBL PXD NGL % of Pre-Hedge Product Revenues Consensus C2+ NGLs (MBbl/d) 2018 Consensus C2+ NGL Production
(1)
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Top NGL Producers in the U.S.
Source: Bloomberg consensus, SEC filings and company press releases. Note: Volumes represent consensus as of 9/20/2018. 2Q 2018 realized prices are weighted average including ethane (C2) where applicable. Percent of 2Q 2018 total product revenues is calculated on a pre-hedge basis. (1) 2Q 2018 actual NGL revenue percentage based on unhedged revenue. * Denotes consensus inclusive of international NGL production.
NGLs Generate 33%
2Q 2018
$26.35 $27.86 $23.69 $24.10 $34.88 $26.71 $28.87 $25.62 $24.39 $28.83
Antero Delivers Highest Exposure to Rising NGL Prices
Pre-hedged Realized NGL Price ($/Bbl) Pre-Hedge NGL % of Total Product Revenues
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
* * * *
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Guidance 2019E Target 2020E Target 2021E Target 2022E Target Natural Gasoline (C5+) IsoButane (iC4) Normal Butane (nC4) Propane (C3) Ethane (C2) 245,000
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Antero NGL Production Growth by Purity Product
Note: Excludes condensate. See Appendix for further assumptions around long-term targets. C2 Ethane volumes in 2018 reflect adjustment for timing of ME2 in-service date from 6/1/18 to 10/1/18.
Total (Bbl/d) C5+ iC4 nC4 C3 C3+ Production C2
C2 Ethane 17,476 C2 Ethane 26,500 C2 Ethane 40,000
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
MID-CONTINENT APPALACHIA
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PERMIAN ROCKIES BAKKEN/WILLISTON
Mariner East Cornerstone
Exports to International Markets
Mont Belvieu Conway Appalachia
purity products
pricing uplift
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Permian, Rockies, Mid-Continent & Bakken
transportation and NGL storage capacity
pricing uplift
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
$0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 Ethane Production (Mbbl/d) Fractionation Spread ($ per Gallon) U.S. Ethane Production Fractionation Spread: (MB Ethane vs Henry Hub Gas)
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NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Source: EIA, Bloomberg
Ethane Production and Frac Spreads Natural Gas and Ethane Pricing ($/Gal) Ethane price improvement exceeds change in natural gas on a gallon equivalent basis Higher Ethane Prices Needed to Incentivize Recovery in Basins Farther from U.S. Gulf Coast
$0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 $0.90 $1.00 $ per Gallon Henry Hub Gas ($/Gallon Equivalent) Mont Belvieu Ethane
2018 Gas Value:
10 Antero’s ethane has a natural gas pricing “floor” and purity ethane “ceiling”; increases in ethane purity prices are all upside Antero’s balanced approach to ethane sales results in 50% of contracts tied to purity ethane prices vs. natural gas value Ethane Revenue Uplift ($MM)
Ethane sensitivity: +$0.10/gallon x 2019 production target x ~50% exposure to Mt. Belvieu = ~$40MM incremental 2019 ethane Revenue
$115 $90 $130 $60 $175 $265 $305 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 1H 2018 Actual $0.23/Gal 2H 2018E Strip Prices $0.45/Gal 2018 Actual + Strip $0.32/Gal 2019E Strip Prices $0.40/Gal 2019E +$0.10 Upside $0.50/Gal Incremental Revenue
40 MBbl/d Antero has no hedges in place for C2 volumes 44 MBbl/d 55 MBbl/d 55 MBbl/d 35 MBbl/d
Note: Ethane prices reflect realized price to Antero and assume $(0.05)/gallon discount to Mt. Belvieu prices based on 2018 Antero guidance. 2019 volumes are assumptions only, based on ME2 in-service and an increase in de-eth capacity expected to come on-line in 4Q18.
+$0.10/Gal C2 price change = $40MM incremental revenue
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Material reduction in U.S. propane inventories relative to the 5-year average Current propane days of supply are 18% below last year and 24% below the 5-year average
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Propane Days of Supply U.S. Propane Inventories
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Days of Supply 5-Yr Range 2018 2017 5-Yr Avg 2013-2017 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MMBbls 5-Yr Range 2017 2018 5-Yr Avg 2013-2017
Source: EnVantage Inc. and Energy Information Administration (EIA).
MB C3 $1.03/gallon remainder of 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) pricing data. Assumes C3+ barrel weightings of: propane 57%, normal butane 16%, Isobutane 10%, pentanes 17%. 1) Balance 2018 represents strip pricing as of 9/17/2018.
$0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 $2.00 C3+ NGLs ($/Gallon)
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30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% C3+ NGLs as a % of WTI Crude Oil
Mont Belvieu C3+ NGL Price ($/Gallon) Mont Belvieu C3+ NGL prices have increased 28% year-over-year and 145% since January 2016 lows But still remain well within historical levels on a on a relative basis compared to WTI crude oil C3+ Price as a Percent of WTI
2H18 $1.17/Gal $49.19/Bbl 67%
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
hedges beyond 2018.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Pentane 17% IsoButane 10% Butane 16% Propane 57%
Antero’s NGL price directly benefits from the recent strengthening
NGL fundamentals remain constructive and support higher prices despite illiquid and backwardated NGL futures prices Antero C3+ Barrel Composition by Product – Mont Belvieu Pricing Mont Belvieu Pricing (Pre-differential & ME2) Antero C3+ Barrel 1H18
Balance 2018 Variance 57% $0.87 $1.03 +$0.16 16% $0.86 $1.21 +$0.35 10% $1.12 $1.22 +$0.10 17% $1.46 $1.58 +$0.12 C3+ $/Gal $0.99 $1.17 +$0.18 C3+ $/Bbl $41.74 $49.19 +$7.46 Volume (Bbl/d) 67,000 88,000 +21,000 13
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
$700 $235 $405 $430 $1,130 $1,365 $1,535 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 1H 2018 Actual $35/Bbl 2H 2018E Strip Prices $43/Bbl 2018 Actual + Strip $40/Bbl 2019E Strip Prices $38/Bbl 2019E Strip +$5/Bbl $43/Bbl Incremental Revenue
77.5 MBbl/d ME2 on 11/1 Antero has no hedges in place for C3+ volumes for 2019 and beyond
Pre-Hedge Revenue Sensitivity to C3+ NGL Pricing ($MM)
Note: Represents 9/17/2018 strip Mont Belvieu pricing. 2H18 assumes Mariner East 2 on November 1 2018. 2H18 volumes implied by full year guidance and 1H18 actual results. 2019 volumes assume 20% liquids growth vs. 2018 guidance of 77,500 Bbl/d. Assumes C3+ barrel weightings of: propane 57%, normal butane 16%, Isobutane 10%, pentanes 17% and holds 1H18 local differential of $(6.00)/Bbl flat. Initial ME2 in- service 11/1/18 moving Antero’s 50,000 Bbl/d of contracted volumes.
67 MBbl/d No ME2
93 MBbl/d Full ME2 93 MBbl/d Full ME2 88 MBbl/d ME2 on 11/1
Compounded pricing leverage from increasing volumes, prices, and Mariner East 2 uplift drives cash flow growth For every $5.00/Bbl increase in NGL prices, Antero generates an incremental $170MM in Revenue
+$5/Bbl change = +$170MM in revenue
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NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
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Mont Belvieu Conway Europe Netback 2019
NWE Price ($/Gal) $1.08 Pipeline, Terminal & Shipping Cost (1) $(0.24) NWE Netback $0.84 Blended Conway / MB Netback $0.73 Uplift vs. 1Q18 Average Differential +$0.11
Asia Netback 2019
FEI Price ($/Gal) $1.17 Pipeline, Terminal & Shipping Cost (1) $(0.33) Asia Netback $0.84 Blended Conway / MB Netback $0.73 Uplift vs. 1Q18 Average Differential +$0.11
International Markets Domestic Markets
Marcus Hook
Antero Blended Netback 2019
Conway/Mt. Belvieu Price ($/Gal) $0.89 Average 1H 2018 Differential $(0.16) Blended Conway/MB Netback $0.73
Source: Poten Partners. Prices reflect blended price of propane and butane based on Antero’s ME2 volume commitment. Note: Based on Baltic forward shipping rates and propane strip prices as of 09/17/18. Includes associated port and canal fees and charges. (1) Based on Wall Street research. Antero cost may be lower.
Mariner East 2 (“ME2”) Initial Capacity (4Q18): Committed volumes Full Capacity (3Q19): 275 MBbl/d AR Commitments: 35 Mbbl/d C3 15 MBbl/d C4 AR Expansion Rights: 50 Mbbl/d C3/C4
Mariner East 2 will allow AR to access international LPG markets and realize a ~$4.50/Bbl uplift on its exported barrels
50,000 Bbl/d Mariner East 2 commitment equates to over $82 MM of incremental annual cash flow
4Q 2018
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NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
16 Step Change in Capital Efficiency Reduces 5-Year D&C Capex by $2.9B The Size & Scale to Capitalize on Resource Announced Longer Lateral Development Plan Averaging 11,500’ per Well Highest Leverage to NGL Prices Among Top NGL Producers
Sustainable Cash Flow Growth
Generating 5-Year Free Cash Flow of $1.6B at YE Strip & $2.8B at $60 Oil
Disciplined Returns Focus
→33% - 37% Full Cycle Returns →23% 5-Year Debt-Adjusted Production CAGR per share →22% 5-Year Cash Flow CAGR per share
Note: See definitions for free cash flow and assumptions behind long-term targets in Appendix; free cash flow definition includes maintenance land spending, but excludes discretionary land spending.
VALUE PROPOSITION | CAPITAL DISCIPLINE AND DELEVERAGING
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SCALE & GROWTH | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS: LONGER LATERALS
59% of Inventory Now ≥ 10,000’ Lateral Length 5-Year Plan Averages 11,500’
Average Lateral Length per Completed Well Core Drilling Inventory by Lateral Length
Average Inventory Lateral Length 12,700 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 145 155 160 165 165 Wells Completed(1) 498 1,450 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 <6,000' 6,000' - 8,000' 8,000' - 10,000' 10,000' - 12,000' ≥12,000' Feet Feet (Number of locations)
1) Wells completed reflects midpoint of targeted completions per year.
Consolidated Drilling & Completion Capital Expenditures Production Targets
2.7 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.2 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bcfe/d As of December 2016 As of December 2017
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VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL REDUCTION
$2.9B Capex Reduction Over 5 Years
Cumulative Reduction in Drilling & Completion Capital
Same Production Targets
20% Production CAGR 2018-2020 15% Production CAGR 2021-2022
Same Production Growth With Much Less Capital Spending
$1.6 $1.7 $2.0 $2.2 $2.4 $1.3 $1.3 $1.3 $1.4 $1.7 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $ Billions As of December 2016 As of December 2017
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$2.9B
Capital Efficiencies Captured Within D&C Capex From New Development Program
$0.9B
Lateral Lengths
$0.5B
Improved Cycle Times
$1.1B
Optimizing Capital Allocation
$0.09MM/1,000’ savings from 9,000’ to 12,000’ Reduced drilling days, increase in stages per day and concurrent operations Continued shift to high- graded Marcellus
$0.4B
Well Cost Savings
Related to reduced AFEs including lower flowback water handling cost due to Clearwater Facility and begin self-sourcing sand
D&C Capex Savings
Lateral Lengths Cycle Times Well Cost Savings Capital Allocation & Enhanced Recoveries
VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS
Note: See appendix for further detail on D&C capital.
3,872 2,575 5,169
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q 2018 RECORD
Feet Marcellus Utica 9,611 15,075 12,886 17,445
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q 2018 RECORD
Feet Marcellus Utica 4.6 5.0 9.0 3.6 5.4 10.0
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q 2018 RECORD
Stages per Day Marcellus Utica
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Average Lateral Feet per Day Drilling Days Average Lateral Length per Well Completion Stages per Day
VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS
8,206
Note: Percentage increase and decrease arrows represent change in Marcellus data from 2014 to 2Q 2018.
12 8 20 10 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2014 2015 2016 2017 2Q 2018 RECORD
Drilling Days Marcellus Utica
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Single Well Economics Bridge to Corporate Level Returns Fully Burdened Corporate Level Well Economics are Outstanding
Note: See company presentation on Antero Resources investor relations website for further detail behind full cycle and half cycle single well economics; WACC calculated using CAPM. (1) ROR (D&C only) burdened with 60% of AM fees to give credit for AM ownership/distributions and variable firm transportation fees only (i.e. excluding sunk demand costs). (2) Incremental 40% of AM fees represent the full midstream fees AR pays to AM on complete stand-alone basis (i.e. no credit for midstream ownership). Includes increase in D&C capital to account for full water fees paid to AM. (3) 2.4 bcfe/1,000’ EUR assumes ethane rejection.
111% 102% 82% 61% 49% 37% 9% 20% 20% 13% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
ROR (D&C only) Pad cost & facilities Half cycle ROR Fixed FT fees ROR with full FT fees Full AM fees ROR-fully burdened fees G&A ROR post- G&A Land costs Full cycle (corporate) ROR
AR WACC ≈ 8%
VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | ATTRACTIVE WELL ECONOMICS DRIVE GROWTH
Fully burdened well economics support investment Corporate ROR well in excess of cost of capital
(1) (2)
Half cycle ROR Full cycle ROR Well Assumptions
12,000’ Lateral 1250 BTU Wellhead Gas 2.4 Bcfe/1,000’ EUR(3) 6/30/2018 Strip Pricing
5 10 15 20 25 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Number of Drilling Rigs In Millions Stand-Alone Adjusted Cash Flow From Operations D&C Capital Antero Rig Count
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Stand-Alone Adjusted Cash Flow Alongside D&C Capital Expenditures D&C Capital Investment Fully Funded with Cash Flow
Note: Stand-alone adjusted cash flow from operations represents net cash provided by operating activities as reported in the Parent column of AR’s guarantor footnote to its financial statements before changes in current assets and liabilities, plus the AM cash distributions payable to AR, plus the earn out payments expected from Antero Midstream associated with the 2015 water drop down transaction. Estimates assume strip pricing as of 12/31/2017. (1) D&C maintenance capital represents $590MM per year to hold production flat at 2.3 Bcfe/d which was year-end 2017 exit rate. (2) Free cash flow definition includes $175MM of maintenance land spending, but excludes $175MM discretionary land spending.
48% reduction in D&C capital budget and 15 rig reduction since 2014 Future D&C capital budgets that are measured and within cash flow
Free Cash Flow(2)
VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | SUSTAINABLE CASH FLOW GROWTH
D&C Maintenance Capital(1)
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Stand-Alone Cash Flow(1) Antero Is Approaching a Free Cash Flow Inflection Point
Note: Stand-Alone Adjusted Operating Cash Flow represents net cash provided by operating activities as reported in the Parent column of AR’s guarantor footnote to its financial statements before changes in current assets and liabilities, plus the AM cash distributions payable to AR, plus the earn out payments expected from Antero Midstream associated with the 2015 water drop down transaction. (1) Based on 12/31/2017 strip pricing.
Capital discipline to reduce completion crews and D&C capex in 2H18 Production growth and strong liquids prices drives free cash flow in 4Q18 and beyond
ANTERO RESOURCES | DISCIPLINED FOCUS ON RETURNS & CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
Cash Outspend Free Cash Flow Generation Q4 2018 represents a free cash flow inflection point 2019E – 2022E Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Delevering & Return of Capital Potential
3.9x 3.6x 2.8x 2.9x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018 Guidance 2019 Target 2020 Target 2021 Target 2022 Target Stand-Alone Financial Leverage 12/31/17 Strip Pricing (Base Case) $60 Oil / $2.85 Gas $50 Oil / $2.85 Gas
23% Debt-Adjusted Production CAGR Generates Free Cash Flow Balance Sheet Deleveraging & Optionality
Note: See Appendix for key definitions and assumptions. Stand-alone financial leverage is calculated by dividing year-end stand-alone debt by last twelve months stand-alone EBITDAX. Note all free cash flow after land spending is assumed to be used for debt reduction.
Leverage targets inclusive of $500 MM of maintenance and discretionary land capex from 2018 - 2022
Deleveraging Supported By:
Distributions
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE AND DELEVERAGING | CASH FLOW DRIVES LOW LEVERAGE
S&P Upgrade to BB+
Moody’s Ba2 Outlook “Positive” BBB- Rating
Fitch Recently Rated AR Investment Grade
2Q 2018 Leverage: 2.6x
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Approaching an Elite Group of E&Ps With Scale, Double Digit Growth, Low Leverage & Free Cash Flow Generation
Source: Bloomberg & Antero Estimates as of 9/20/18. (1) Adjusted EBITDAX and Adjusted Operating Cash Flow are non-GAAP measures. AR EV/EBITDAX multiple also reflects an enterprise value that excludes AR ownership of AM, and EBITDAX excludes AM distributions received by AR, for comparative purposes with peer E&P multiples. For additional information regarding these measures, please see “Antero Definitions” and “Antero Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix.
VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | ATTRACTIVE VALUATION
U.S. Publicly Traded E&Ps Leverage < 3.0x Enterprise Value > $10B Production Growth >15% Leverage <2.0x Free Cash Flow
# of Companies Median Debt/ Adjusted EBITDAX Median EV/ 2019 Adj. EBITDAX 52 2.1x 5.5x 37 1.5x 5.6x 17 1.5x 6.2x 9 1.5x 6.2x 6 1.0x 6.9x 5 0.8x 7.2x
EOG CXO PXD
AR 2019E unhedged EBITDAX Multiple: 3.9x
Scale Growth Low Leverage
Permian & Appalachia
FCF Generation
COG CLR
in 2019 in 2018
Premium for:
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2018 2019 2020 FCF Yield
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VALUE PROPOSITION: HIGH RETURN PORTFOLIO & FREE CASH FLOW | 5-YEAR OUTLOOK
Note: See definitions for free cash flow and assumptions behind long-term targets in Appendix. “Elite” group of peers includes COG, CXO, CLR, EOG, PXD; “Integrated” group includes XOM & CVX. Source: Bloomberg. Represents free cash flow yield for the base case at 12/31/17 strip pricing. (1) Represents free cash flow divided by current market capitalization as of 9/20/18.
Free Cash Flow Yields Exceed Both Best-In-Class Peers & Integrated Oil & Gas Companies
AR 7% FCF Yield(1)
Surpasses Industry Leading Peers, While Maintaining Strong Production Growth
Assuming current stock prices, Antero should deliver free cash flow yield well in excess of both the integrateds and the “best in class” E&P peers
Antero is Very Well Positioned in the Core of the Core
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Northern Rich
High-Graded Core 2.24 Bcfe/1,000’ Avg. EUR 61% Undeveloped
Southern Rich
High-Graded Core 2.24 Bcfe/1,000’ Avg. EUR 66% Undeveloped AR Holds 62% of Undeveloped
Southwest Marcellus Core
~2.9 Million Acres ~76% Undeveloped
Antero Acreage Antero Marcellus Wells Industry Marcellus Wells Antero Marcellus Rig Industry Marcellus Rig
Dry Gas
High-Graded Core 2.30 Bcfe/1,000’ Avg. EUR 74% Undeveloped AR Holds 13% of Undeveloped
> 1,300 lb/ft Completions High- Graded Core Areas Most Active Operators Percent Undeveloped Advanced Completions (>1,300 lbs/ft) Bcfe / 1,000’ Wells Northern Rich RRC, CNX, HG 67% 2.24 474 Southern Rich AR, EQT, SWN 70% 2.24 517 Dry Gas EQT, CVX, RRC, CNX 78% 2.30 747
Note: Excludes 600,000 urban acres. EURs assume full ethane rejection. Based on Antero reserve engineering of most recent state and internal production data.
ANTERO RESOURCES | SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD CLASS LIQUIDS-RICH RESOURCE BASE
3,295 2,333 1,605 1,259 720 714 663 588 583 556 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 AR A B C D E F G H I Undrilled Locations
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10,848’ 9,563’ 6,775’ 7,723’ 6,040’ 9,583’ 8,905’ 8,396’ 7,731’ 8,639’
Antero Holds 40% of Core Undrilled Liquids-Rich Locations
Largest Inventory in Appalachia
(1) Peers include Ascent, CHK, CNX, COG, CVX, EQT, GPOR, HG, RRC and SWN. Based on Antero analysis of undeveloped acreage in the core of the Marcellus and Ohio Utica plays. Excludes deep Utica resource in West Virginia & Pennsylvania.
Who Can Consistently Drill Long Laterals? Who Has the Running Room?
Core Marcellus & Utica Undrilled Locations(1)
Lateral Length:
SCALE & GROWTH | CORE OF THE CORE
Rich Gas Locations NE PA Dry Gas Dry Gas Locations
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(1) All laterals rounded to the nearest thousand. (2) Represents wells placed to sales.
Antero Historical & Future Lateral Length Program
113 85 22 12 10 4 12 13 57 103 93 107 76 81 78 77 93 50 100 150 200 250 300 ≤ 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 > 15,000 Well Count Lateral Length(1)
Antero
# of Wells
Length Total Drilling Program to Date 945 8,275 2018-2022 Program(2) 790 11,425 Wells to Date ≥10,000’ 245 10,700
SCALE & GROWTH | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS: LONGER LATERALS
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 EUR (Bcfe) Lateral Length (ft) EUR in Bcfe/1,000' 2.3 Bcfe/1,000'
31
SCALE & GROWTH | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS: LONGER LATERALS
EURs by Marcellus Lateral Lengths
A 1:1 Proportional Increase in EURs with Longer Laterals
Antero well results show no evidence of degradation in recovery per foot of completed lateral out to over 14,000’
R2 = .73
Note: Assumes ethane rejection.
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SCALE & GROWTH | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS: LONGER LATERALS
Note: Represents half cycle economics at 6/30/2018 strip pricing for a 1250 Btu Marcellus well. See Appendix for further assumptions on single well economics.
Single Well Economics by Lateral Lengths
$7.1 $11.9 $16.6 $21.0 58% 77% 89% 90% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% $- $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 6,000' Lateral 9,000' Lateral 12,000' Lateral 15,000' Lateral PV-10 ($MM) ROR (%)
~60% Improvement in ROR from a 6,000’ Lateral to a 15,000’ Lateral
$0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 $2.00 $2.20 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,00015,000 $MM/1,000 ft of lateral Lateral Length (ft)
Marcellus
2014 2017
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SCALE & GROWTH | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS: LONGER LATERALS
Note: Well costs reflect 2,000 pound per foot completions. See Appendix for further assumptions.
Historical Well Costs
41% | 43% Lower Costs
Marcellus | Utica reduction in well costs from 2014 to 2017 for a 9,000’ lateral
9% | 10% Cost Benefit
Marcellus | Utica reduction in well cost per 1,000’ lateral going from 9,000’ to 12,000’ laterals 41% Reduction
$0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 $MM/1,000 ft of lateral Lateral Length (ft)
Utica
2014 2017
43% Reduction 9% Reduction 10% Reduction
34
(1) Based on Marcellus 11,000 foot lateral and 2,000 pounds per foot AFE. Assumes nine wells per pad.
Drilling Efficiency (25%)
Decline in well costs since 2014
Permanent cost efficiencies
Vendor-related cost reductions
Efficiencies Expected to Offset Service Cost Inflation
Facilities, Pad & Road Allocation 9% Tubulars 4% Sand 12% Flowback Water 5% Completion Spreads 25% Drilling Rigs & Services 21% Completion Services 24%
Drilling Rigs/Services
→Fit-for-purpose rigs with dual operation capabilities to improve cycle times →Improved drillout efficiency →Penetration rates still increasing with new downhole motors
Completion Spreads/Services
→ Concurrent operations with larger pads allowing simultaneous drilling and completion and easier access → More wells per pad → Automated completion equipment to increase stages per day
Sand
→ 100 mesh sand for easier pumping & fewer screenouts → Self-sourcing sand to reduce supply cost → Regional sand mines in the Permian expected to reduce demand for Northern White sand
Spreads Under Contract Through 2019 Antero has 100% of 2018 Rigs and 50% of 2019 Rigs Under Fixed Rate Contracts with Average Rig Rates Declining Towards $17,500/day in 2018 as Higher Rig Rate Contracts Roll Off
Achievements to Date 2018 Marcellus Well Cost(1) Next Steps in Efficiency Evolution
SCALE & GROWTH | OPERATING TECHNOLOGIES EVOLVE
$0.88 $0.73 $0.51 $0.42 $1.28 $0.94 $0.73 $0.74 $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 2014 2015 2016 2017 Marcellus Utica
35
SCALE & GROWTH | COST EFFICIENCY DRIVERS: WELL COST REDUCTION
F&D Cost per Mcfe(1)(2)
(1) Ethane rejection assumed. (2) F&D cost is defined as current D&C cost per 1,000’ lateral divided by net EUR per 1,000’ lateral assuming 85% NRI in Marcellus and 81% NRI in Utica. Please see “Antero Definitions” and “Antero Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix.
Dramatic Improvement in Operating Efficiencies, Lower Service Costs and Higher Well Recoveries Have Driven F&D Costs Materially Lower
in Marcellus | Utica
36 Unlocks development optionality between Marcellus and Utica and provides further Chicago & Gulf Coast exposure Rover Sherwood Lateral expected to be placed into service in September Rover Pipeline Map
Chicago via Rover ($/MMBtu) 2019
Chicago Price ($/MMbtu)(1) $2.54 Approximate Variable Cost $(0.06) Netback Price $2.48 TETCO M2 Price $(2.10) Uplift vs. TETCO M2(1) $0.38
Gulf Coast via ANR ($/MMbtu) 2019
Gulf Coast Price ($/MMbtu)(1) $2.63 Approximate Variable Cost $(0.04) Netback Price $2.59 TETCO M2 Price $(2.10) Uplift vs. TETCO M2(2) $0.49
Ability to utilize 800 MMcf/d Rover capacity with both Marcellus production (Sherwood Processing Plant) and Utica production (Seneca Processing Plant)
Rover Phase 1A (in-service) Rover Phase 1B (in-service) Rover Laterals (3Q18-4Q18) Natural Gas Pricing Hub
1. Futures prices as of 9/17/18. 2. Based on 2019 Tetco M2 futures prices and includes $0.14 of variable cost
ANTERO RESOURCES | CONTROL DEVELOPMENT & MITIGATE INDUSTRY RISKS
TRANSITION TO FREE CASH FLOW & LOW LEVERAGE | PRODUCTIVITY DRIVERS
2,195 2,330 1,418 710 850 90 $3.70 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $3.00 $2.91 $2.92 $2.78 $2.66 $2.61 $2.64 $2.70 $- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00
400 900 1,400 1,900 2,400 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MMcfe/day
Average Index Hedge Price(1) Hedged Volume Current NYMEX Strip(2) Mark-to-Market Value(2)
(1) Weighted average index price based on volumes hedged assuming 6:1 gas to liquids ratio. Includes 26,000 Bbl/d of propane hedged at $0.76/gallon and 6,000 Bbl/d of oil hedged at $56.99/Bbl for 2018 only. (2) As of 6/30/18.
Commodity Hedge Position ~$1.2B Mark-To-Market Unrealized Gains Based On 6/30/2018 Prices
2.4 Tcfe hedged through
2023 at $3.35/MMBtu
~26 MBbl/d of propane
hedged in 2018 at $0.76/Gal
$3.9B of realized gains
37
~100% of 2018 and 2019 Target Gas Production Hedged at $3.50/MMBtu
($/MMBtu)
$0.10/ Mcfe $0.15/ Mcfe < $0.10/ Mcfe $0 $0 $0.125/Mcfe $0.20/Mcfe $469 $0.45/Mcfe $585 $0.48/Mcfe $224 $0.15/Mcfe $37 $35 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2018 Guidance 2019 Target 2020 Target 2021 Target 2022 Target $ Millions Net Marketing Expense (High End) Net Marketing Expense (Low End) Hedge Gains
38
TRANSITION TO FREE CASH FLOW & LOW LEVERAGE | FIRM TRANSPORTATION & HEDGE BOOK
Hedge Gains More than Offset Marketing Expense – Hedges Support FT Commitments Firm Transportation Portfolio
Allows Antero to achieve:
Effectively Hedge NYMEX Index
A key advantage as
delivered to NYMEX- related markets
Premium Price Certainty
Less volatility and greater surety in realized prices 5-Year Cumulative: Hedge Gains: $1,350 Marketing Expense: ($461) Net Uplift: $889
Hedge Portfolio Supports Firm Commitments
$1,150 $2,830 $6,061 $795 $179 $311 $395 $250 $2,980
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000
AM IPO (2014) Sale of Water Business (2015) Sale of AM Units (2016) Sale of AM Units (9/6/17) AM Distributions Received as of 6/30/18 Total Proceeds to Date Expected Earnout Payments (2019E-2020E) Pre-tax Value
Held by AR @ $30.41 (09/20/18) Pre-tax Cumulative Value of Antero Midstream
Cash Proceeds (SMM)
Antero Midstream Return on Investment for AR (Pre-tax)(1) 4.7x ROI
Takeaway Assurance Return on Investment Downstream Visibility
(1) Midstream proceeds received by AR to date plus market value of AR’s 53% ownership of AM at 6/30/18 divided by the approximate $1.3B of AR capital invested at time of AM IPO.
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TRANSITION TO FREE CASH FLOW & LOW LEVERAGE | MIDSTREAM DRIVING VALUE
Consistent results through the price cycles Antero’s integrated strategy has resulted in peer-leading all-in realized prices amongst the peer group
$5.17 $5.10 $4.09 $4.08 $3.60 $3.90
$- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018
AR Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5
Source: Public data from company 10-Ks. Peers include CNX, COG, EQT, RRC and SWN. All-in realized natural gas equivalent pricing includes liquids and hedge realizations for the period. Hedge realizations is the stippled top portion of each bar.
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TRANSITION TO FREE CASH FLOW & LOW LEVERAGE | PROFITABILITY DRIVERS
Antero Has Been the Leader in Natural Gas Equivalent Prices For Over Five Years
($/Mcfe) Nymex Henry Hub
All-In Realized Pricing ($/Mcfe) – Appalachian Peers (Includes Liquids and Hedge Realizations)
$3.36 $2.97 $2.07 $2.06 $1.61 $1.86 $- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 AR Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 3 EBITDAX Margin ($/Mcfe)
41
On a Stand-Alone EBITDAX Margin Basis, Antero has Consistently Outperformed its Appalachian Peers Through Up and Down Commodity Cycles
Source: SEC filings and company press releases. AR 2017 margins exclude $0.10/Mcfe negative impact from WGL and SJR natural gas contract disputes. Peers include CNX, COG, EQT, RRC & SWN. (1) AR and EQT EBITDAX include distributions from midstream ownership. Cash costs for AR and EQT represent stand-alone GPT, production taxes, LOE and cash G&A. Post-hedge and post net marketing expense where applicable.
WTI Price ($/Bbl) WTI Oil Price ($/Bbl) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
Stand-Alone EBITDAX Margin vs WTI Oil Price
TRANSITION TO FREE CASH FLOW & LOW LEVERAGE | EBITDAX MARGINS
Sustainable margins through the price cycles Antero’s integrated strategy has resulted in peer-leading EBITDAX margins for over 5 years
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Market Cap………………....... Enterprise Value….........……. LTM Adjusted EBITDA(1)…….. % Gathering/Compression… % Water…..…..…..…..…….. Net Debt/LTM EBITDA…….... Corporate Debt Rating………. $5.7B $7.1B $619 MM 65% 35% 2.3x Ba2 / BB+ /BBB-
Note: Equity market data as of 9/20/2018. Balance sheet data as of 6/30/2018.
ANTERO MIDSTREAM │DISCIPLINED CAPITAL EFFICIENT MIDSTREAM MODEL
AM Highlights AMGP Highlights
Market Cap………………....... Net Debt/LTM EBITDA...……. $3.2B –
Antero Midstream Utica Assets Antero Midstream Marcellus Assets
Compressor Station: In Service Antero Clearwater Facility Processing Facility Compressor Station: 2018 Gathering Pipeline Fresh Water Pipeline Stonewall Pipeline
Sherwood Processing Facility – 1.8 Bcf/d Existing Capacity Antero Clearwater Treatment Facility 60,000 Bbl/d Capacity Stonewall JV Pipeline New Smithburg JV Processing Facility – Civil Work Under Way
$280 $404 $529 $730 2.2x 2.1x 2.3x
0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E Guidance 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
EBITDA Leverage
44
AM EBITDA and Leverage
2014 IPO Leverage Target: Low 2x
ANTERO MIDSTREAM │DISCIPLINED CAPITAL EFFICIENT MIDSTREAM MODEL
2Q 2018 Leverage: 2.3x
DISCIPLINED CAPITAL EFFICIENT BUSINESS MODEL
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AM Throughput Growth
Over $2.4 billion of Free Cash Flow from 2018 – 2022 Before Distributions
($800) ($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018 Guidance 2019 Target 2020 Target 2021 Target 2022 Target AM Cash Flow Outspend Before Distributions
With No Change to Throughput Volumes ~$500MM in Capital Efficiencies
Earn-out Payments from Water Drop Down
Leverage existing asset base and realization of “full build-out EBITDA multiples”
Note: Includes water earnings and capital invested on a recast basis prior to drop down and excludes drop down purchase price
We Are Here AM Free Cash Flow Before Distributions
Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP measure. For additional information regarding this measure, please see “Antero Midstream Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix..
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AM Project Economics by Investment
30% 18% 15% 30% 15% 15% 40% 28% 25% 40% 25% 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% LP Gathering HP Gathering Compression Fresh Water Delivery Advanced Wastewater Treatment Processing/ Fractionation Internal Rate of Return
“Just-in-time” capital investment philosophy drives attractive project IRR’s 17% 12% 29% 12%
% of 5-year Organic Project Backlog Weighted Avg: 25% IRR
ORGANIC PROJECT BACKLOG WITH PEER-LEADING RETURNS
47
AM Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
2017 ROIC of 15% in
Future organic growth capital leverages existing trunklines and major gathering arteries
12% 9% 13% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Actual Consensus
Source: Factset consensus estimates. See appendix for ROIC calculation
Fewer pads to service reduces capital with same throughput
DISCIPLINED CAPITAL EFFICIENT BUSINESS MODEL
Return on invested capital is a non-GAAP measure. For additional information regarding this measure, please see “Antero Midstream Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix.
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$1.03 $1.33 $1.72 $2.21 $2.85 $3.42 $4.10 1.8x 1.4x 1.3x 0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x 1.4x 1.6x 1.8x 2.0x $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 2016A 2017A 2018 Guidance 2019 Target 2020 Target 2021 Target 2022 Target DCF Coverage Ratio Distribution Per Unit Distribution Guidance (Mid-point)
Long-Term Distribution Targets and DCF Coverage Unchanged capital investment philosophy with disciplined financial policies result in ability to target peer-leading distribution growth through 2022
Distribution Target (Mid-point) DCF Coverage Targets
Note: Implied yield based on AM unit price as of 9/20/18.
Implied Yield 9.4% 5.7% ANTERO MIDSTREAM │DISCIPLINED CAPITAL EFFICIENT MIDSTREAM MODEL
Antero Midstream provides a customized full value chain midstream solution in the lowest cost natural gas and liquids basins: the Marcellus and Utica Shale
and Utica Shales delivering wellhead gas directly to key processing plants and long haul pipelines
the largest liquids-rich resource base with the dominant processing and fractionation footprint in Appalachia
Appalachia that has a 100% track record of timely fresh water deliveries to AR’s completions
world for shale oil and gas operations
PREMIER INTEGRATED APPALACHIAN MIDSTREAM ASSETS
49
50
~$1.9B Organic Project Backlog ~$800MM JV Project Backlog
WELL PAD
LOW PRESSURE GATHERING HIGH PRESSURE GATHERING
COMPRESSION GAS PROCESSING (50% INTEREST) REGIONAL GATHERING PIPELINE (15% INTEREST) FRACTIONATION TERMINALS & STORAGE
Y-GRADE PIPELINE (ETHANE, PROPANE, BUTANE) NGL PRODUCT PIPELINES
LONG HAUL PIPELINE
INTERCONNECT
END USERS
PDH PLANT
>$1.0B Downstream Investment Opportunity Set
Note: Third party logos denote company operator of respective asset.
AM Assets AM/MPLX JV Assets Potential AM Opportunities
Upstream Downstream
5-year identified project inventory of $2.7B plus an additional $1.0B of potential downstream opportunities
OUTLOOK: ORGANIC PROJECT BACKLOG WITH PEER-LEADING RETURNS
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World Class E&P Operator in Appalachia
Contiguous Core Acreage Position Allows for Long Lateral Drilling and Significant Capital Efficiencies Largest NGL Producer in the U.S. Leads to Peer Leading Cash Flow Margins Optimized 5-Year Plan Results in High Return Drilling & Free Cash Flow Midstream Ownership & Integration Delivers Value and Just-in-Time Infrastructure Buildout
53% Ownership
ANTERO RESOURCES | SUMMARY
A Leading Northeast Infrastructure Platform Levered Exposure to Northeast Infrastructure Buildout
APPENDIX | 2018 GUIDANCE
Stand-Alone Consolidated
Net Daily Production (Bcfe/d) ~2.7 Net Liquids Production (BBl/d) ~130,000 Natural Gas Realized Price Differential to Nymex $0.05 to $0.10 Premium C3+ NGL Realized Price (% of Nymex WTI) 57.5% – 62.5% Cash Production Expense ($/Mcfe) $2.05 – $2.15 $1.60 – $1.70 Marketing Expense ($/Mcfe) (10% Mitigation Assumed) $0.10 – $0.125 G&A Expense ($/Mcfe) (before equity-based compensation) $0.125 – $0.175 $0.15 - $0.20 Adjusted EBITDAX $1,700 – $1,800 $2,050 – $2,150 Adjusted Operating Cash Flow $1,480 – $1,600 $1,750 – $1,900 Net Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDAX Low 2x Mid 2x D&C Capital Expenditures ($MM) $1,500 $1,300 Land Capital Expenditures ($MM) $150 ($25MM Maintenance) $150 ($25MM Maintenance)
Note: See Appendix for key definitions. Cash flow and EBITDAX guidance based on 12/31/2017 strip pricing . 2018 average NYMEX and WTI pricing was $2.83/MMBtu and $59.57/Bbl, respectively. (1) Includes lease operating expense, gathering, compression, processing and transportation expense and production and ad valorem taxes.
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APPENDIX | 5-YEAR ASSUMPTIONS
Stand-Alone Consolidated
Net Daily Production (MMcfe/d) 20% CAGR through 2020 and 15% Growth in each of 2021 and 2022 Natural Gas Realized Price Differential to Nymex $0.05 to $0.10 Premium (2018) $0.00 to $0.10 Premium (2019 – 2022) C3+ NGL Realized Price (% of Nymex WTI) 57.5% – 62.5% (2018) 69% (2019+) – ME2 Fees Booked to Transport Costs Realized Oil Price Differential to WTI ($5.00) – ($6.00) Cash Production Expense ($/Mcfe)(1) $2.05 - $2.15 (2018) $2.10 – $2.25 (2019 – 2022) $1.60 - $1.70 (2018) $1.65 – $1.75 (2019 – 2022) Marketing Expense ($/Mcfe) $0.10 - $0.125 (2018) $0.15 – $0.20 (2019) <$0.10 (2020) $0.00 (2021 – 2022) G&A Expense ($/Mcfe) (before equity-based compensation) $0.125 – $0.175 (2018 – 2019) $0.10 – $0.15 (2020 – 2022) $0.15 - $0.20 (2018 – 2019) $0.10 – $0.15 (2020 – 2022) Cash Interest Expense ($/Mcfe) $0.175 – $0.225 (2018 – 2019) $0.10 – $0.15 (2020 – 2021) <$0.10 (2022) $0.25 – $0.30 (2018 – 2019) $0.20 – $0.25 (2020 – 2022) Well Costs ($MM / 1,000’) (Assumes 12,000’ completions at 2,000 lbs. per foot of proppant) Marcellus: $0.95 MM Utica: $1.07 MM Marcellus: $0.80 MM Utica: $0.95 MM
(1) Includes lease operating expense, gathering, compression, processing and transportation expense and production and ad valorem taxes.
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APPENDIX | 5-YEAR ASSUMPTIONS
Antero Guidance and Long-Term Target Assumptions (Cont.)
Stand-Alone E&P Consolidated
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow(1) $10.4B (Cumulative 2018 – 2022) N/A Annual D&C Capital Expenditures ($MM) $1,500 – $1,600 (2018 – 2020) $1,700 – $2,000 (2021 – 2022) $1,300 – $1,400 (2018 – 2021) $1,600 – $1,700 (2022) Land Maintenance Expenditures ($MM)(2) ~$200 (Cumulative 2018 – 2022) Free Cash Flow(1) $1.6B (Cumulative 2018 – 2022) N/A Leasehold Growth Capital Expenditures ($MM) ~$300 (Cumulative 2018 – 2022) Number of Well Completions 790 well completions Marcellus EUR per 1,000’ of Lateral 2.0 Bcf/1,000’; 2.5 Bcfe/1,000’ (25% ethane recovery) Utica EUR per 1,000’ of Lateral 2.0 Bcfe/1,000’ (ethane rejection)
Note: See Appendix for key definitions. Cash flow guidance is based on 12/31/2017 strip pricing. Average NYMEX pricing was $2.83/MMBtu, $2.81/MMBtu, $2.82/MMBtu, $2.85/MMBtu and $2.89/MMBtu in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Average WTI pricing was $59.57/Bbl, $56.19/Bbl, $53.76/Bbl, $52.29/Bbl and $51.67/Bbl for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. (1) Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures. For additional information regarding these measures, please see the following pages (“Antero Definitions” and “Antero Non-GAAP Measures”). (2) Includes leasehold capital expenditures required to achieve targeted working interest percentage.
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APPENDIX | PROJECT ASSUMPTIONS
In-Service Date
Rover Phase 2 2H 2018 Mariner East 2 2H 2018 WB Xpress West 4Q 2018 WB Xpress East 4Q 2018 Mountaineer Xpress / Gulf Xpress YE 2018
Note: Based on publicly available information.
6/30/2018 Debt Maturity Profile
$1,000 $1,100 $750 $650 $600 $455 $770 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
AR Credit Facility AM Credit Facility AR Senior Notes AM Senior Notes
New credit facilities for AR and AM have allowed Antero to extend its average debt maturity out to 2022
57
ANTERO RESOURCES | CONSOLIDATED LIQUIDITY AND BALANCE SHEET
No maturities until 2021
58
ANTERO RESOURCES | TRENDING TOWARDS INVESTMENT GRADE
Moody's S&P Fitch
Corporate Credit Ratings History
Corporate Credit Rating (Moody’s / S&P / Fitch)
Ba3 / BB- B1 / B+ B2 / B B3 / B- Ba2 / BB Ba1 / BB+ Caa1 / CCC+ / CCC Baa3 / BBB- 2010
Investment Grade Rating: BBB- Fitch Jan. 2018 Stable through commodity price crash
Credit Markets Have a Strong Appreciation for Antero Momentum
Investment Grade Rating from Fitch (BBB-) & Recent Upgrade from S&P (BB+) Stable Credit Ratings with Consistent Upgrades from the Beginning of the Decade Through the Downturn
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Upgrade to BB+ S&P Feb. 2018
Investment Grade
Outlook to Positive Moody’s Feb. 2018
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APPENDIX | ASSUMPTIONS
D&C Capital
(1)
(1) Based on Marcellus AFE, which assumes inflation on consumable products (i.e. sand/chemicals).
($MM) 2018 2019 2020 Total Well Completions (I.e. First Sales) 145 155 160 Average Lateral 9,700 10,500 11,600 Adjusted Well Count (I.e. Based on Capital Timing) 155 157 150 Average Lateral 9,700 10,500 11,600 Total Adjusted Lateral Feet 1,503,500 1,648,500 1,740,000 Cost per Lateral Foot ($MM/1,000) - Lateral Savings ONLY $0.86 $0.83 $0.81 Implied D&C $1,293 $1,368 $1,409 Savings from Concurrent Ops. / Increasing Stages per Day ($24) ($79) Adjusted Capital Cost $1,293 $1,344 $1,330 Implied Cost per Lateral Foot ($MM/1,000)
$0.86 $0.82 $0.76
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APPENDIX | PRICING ASSUMPTIONS
Commodity prices: All forecasts reflect the following commodity price cases:
Current Hedging Arrangements
through 2022 at $3.34/MMBtu
Oil and Gas Strip Commodity Prices (12/31/17)
$59.62 $56.19 $53.76 $52.29 $51.67 $2.82 $2.81 $2.82 $2.85 $2.89 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 $65.00 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 WTI Nymex ($/Bbl) ($/MMBtu)
17.3 Tcfe Proved 35.1 Tcfe Probable 2.3 Tcfe Possible Proved Probable Possible
54.6 Tcfe 3P 96% 2P Reserves
2017 realized C3+ and C2+ prices including regional market differentials were $0.77/gal and $0.49/gal, respectively.
3P RESERVES BY VOLUME – 2017(1) NET PROVED RESERVES (Tcfe)(1)
− − /1,000’ of
− /1,000’ of
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Marcellus Utica 0.7 2.8 4.3 7.6 12.7
(Tcfe)
13.2 15.4 17.3
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APPENDIX | RESERVE GROWTH
2017 Year-End proved pre-tax PV-10 at SEC pricing, including $0.6B of hedge value
2017 Year-End 3P pre-tax PV-10 at SEC pricing, including $0.6B of hedge value
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AR Pays Competitive Gathering & Compression Fees
based on extensive internal analysis of 19 publicly disclosed and undisclosed private midstream contracts
AR has Low or No MVCs with AM
IPO (11/2014)
when a project is requested by AR
build infrastructure with capacity larger than requested for efficiency purposes that is not subject to MVCs
AR Receives Reliable and Timely Gathering and Compression from AM
infrastructure projects
APPENDIX | GATHERING AND COMPRESSION FEES
1 2 3
$0.53 $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 $0.90 $1.00
Appalachian Study Average: $0.60/MMBtu
63
Note: All gathering & compression fees normalized to 1,250 Btu gas and two stage compression. Analysis based on public and private company disclosures for Appalachia midstream contracts.
AR Fees Paid to AM Converted to MMBtu AR Contracted Gathering/Compression Fees to AM ($/Mcf) $0.66 Typical BTU Conversion (Average BTU of 1250) for 2018/2019 Programs 1.25 AR Gathering/Compression Fees (Converted to $/MMBtu) $0.53
NOTE: Most midstream fees are disclosed on a $/MMBtu basis. AR’s fees are disclosed on a $/Mcf basis and must be converted to a $/MMBtu basis to appropriately compare to others
APPENDIX | GATHERING AND COMPRESSION FEES
Private Gathering & Compression Agreements
P
Publicly Disclosed Agreements
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AR Pays Highly Competitive Fresh Water Fees
and is $0.50/Bbl lower cost than variable sourcing and trucking costs Peer Challenges:
production growth and larger completions requiring more water
AR Receives Reliable and Timely Fresh Water Service From AM
fresh water for completions through AM Peer Challenges:
weather
Sustainable Clean Water via Pipeline
AR in 2017 alone
product of the advanced wastewaster treatment Peer Challenges:
costs during completions and increases risk of negative impact on reservoir productivity
AR has Water MVCs with AM only through 2019
1 2 3 4
APPENDIX | FRESH WATER DELIVERY FEES
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James Webb Pad – 9 Wells Round Trip Miles Minutes $/Bbl Pad Avg 15 36 $3.60 AR Costs Per Barrel $(0.09) Stewart Pad – 4 Wells Round Trip Miles Minutes $/Bbl Pad Avg 51 83 $4.38 AR Savings Per Barrel $0.69 Edna Monroe Pad – 10 Wells Round Trip Miles Minutes $/Bbl Pad Avg 36 77 $4.28 AR Savings Per Barrel $0.59 Bettinger Pad – 1 Wells Round Trip Miles Minutes $/Bbl Pad Avg. 56 99 $4.64 AR Savings Per Barrel $0.99
Antero 2017 Average Loading Time (Minutes) 60 Staging Time (Minutes) 120 Trucking Cost per Hour $90 Barrels Per Truck (Bbls) 90 Avoided Cost to Truck to All Pads ($/Bbl) $4.19 Firm Delivery Fee paid to AM ($/Bbl) $3.69 AR Fresh Water Savings ($/Bbl) $0.50
Nicki Pad – 6 Wells Round Trip Miles Minutes $/Bbl Pad Avg. 41 74 $4.23 AR Savings Per Barrel $0.58
Antero analyzed its 2017 completions and the “avoided cost” of utilizing AM’s fresh water pipeline system vs. trucking water for completions
times, traffic congestion, completion shut-downs, bad weather, and challenging topography)
Note: Select 2017 pads shown above are illustrative of the company wide development plan across AR’s acreage position.
APPENDIX | FRESH WATER DELIVERY FEES
Note: 2H 2018 based on 2018 balance strip pricing as of 7/25/2018. Local index represents a blend of Dominion South and TETCO M2 pricing. Midwest index represents a blend of Chicago and MichCon pricing. Gulf Coast index represents a blend of Gulf and Nymex-based pricing.
Antero 2018 Firm Transport Index Breakdown
TRANSITION TO FREE CASH FLOW & LOW LEVERAGE | PROFITABILITY DRIVERS
~97% of Antero Gas Is Expected to be Sold in Favorably Priced Markets in the Balance of 2018
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59% 60% 17% 14% 16% 23% 8% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1H 2018 2H 2018
Index Differential % of Gas Sold Differential % of Gas Sold
Local Markets(1) $(0.55) 8% $(0.43) 3% Midwest $0.07 16% $(0.07) 23% TCO $(0.20) 17% $(0.22) 14% Gulf Coast $(0.14) 59% $(0.11) 60% Wtd.Avg. Differential: $(0.15) 100% $(0.13) 100% BTU Uplift $0.24 $0.24
All-in vs. NYMEX +$0.09
+$0.11
+$0.05 - $0.10
Updated forecast premium to NYMEX after BTU uplift
5% decrease to Local Markets Local Midwest TCO Gulf Coast 8% increase in exposure to Midwest & Gulf Cost Markets
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place to support revenues and rates of return for AM’s acquisition of the water business in September 2015
Fresh Water Delivery MVC’s and Earn Out Payments (MBbl/d)
90 100 120 120 161 MBbl/d 200 MBbl/d 123 153 221(1) 50 100 150 200 250 2016A 2017A 2018 2019 2020 MBbl/d MVCs Earnout #1 Earnout #2 Actual Volumes
APPENDIX | FRESH WATER DELIVERY MVCS
(1) Represents 1Q 2018 fresh water delivery volumes.
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Guidance 2017 Guidance 2018 Guidance Change
Net Income ($MM) $305 - $345 $435 - $480 +41% Adjusted EBITDA ($MM) $520 - $560 $705 - $755 +35% DCF ($MM) $405 - $445 $575 - $625 +41% Distribution Growth 28 – 30% 28 – 30%
1.30x – 1.45x 1.25x - 1.35x
Maintenance Capex ($MM) $65 $65 0% Growth Capex ($MM) $735 $585
Total Capex ($MM) $800 $650
APPENDIX: GUIDANCE
Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow are non-GAAP measures. For additional information regarding these measures, please see “Antero Midstream Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix.
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SCALE & GROWTH: LIQUIDS-RICH RESOURCE MEETS CAPITAL EFFICIENCY | UNDERSTANDING THE RESOURCE
EUR Regime BTU Range 2018 Well Completions 2019 Well Completions Half Cycle Well Economics (Strip Price) Total Undrilled Locations Average Lateral Length Marcellus
Highly-Rich Gas Condensate 1275-1350 14 30 200% 447 12,500’ Highly-Rich Gas 1200-1275 106 101 89% 935 11,500’ Rich Gas 1100-1200 4 32% 495 11,150’
Ohio Utica
Condensate 1250-1300 19 2 59% 206 9,950’ Rich Gas 1100-1200 3 9 39% 102 11,550’ Dry Gas 1050 3 9 36% 187 10,450’ Total(1) 145 155 Program Stats: 93% | 98% Strip | $70 Oil ROR 1,253 BTU Average Program Stats: 102% | 106% Strip | $70 Oil ROR 1,248 BTU Average High-Grade Inventory Totals: 2,372 High-Grade Inventory Averages: 11,400’
1) Wells completed reflects midpoint of targeted completions per year.
Hedged Multiple 2019E EBITDAX ($MM): $2,094 Excludes AM Distributions EV / 2019E EBITDAX: 3.4x Unhedged Multiple 2019E EBITDAX ($MM): $1,520 Excludes AM Distributions & Hedge Revenues EV / 2019E EBITDAX: 3.9x
$6,275 $5,949 $5,274 $1,420 $3,006 ~$1,175 $11,550 $7,124
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 Consolidated Enterprise Value Antero Midstream Net Debt After Tax Value of AM Owned Units AR Stand-alone E&P Value
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APPENDIX | VALUE CREATION
Note: Balance sheet data as of 6/30/18, except AR and AM unit price as of 9/20/18 and hedge mark-to-market as of 6/30/18. Hedged and unhedged 2019E EBITDAX multiples represent consensus less 75% of consensus AM EBITDA (water contribution).
99MM units
market price of $30.41/unit
Market Value Net Debt Hedge MTM E&P Assets
21% tax on value of AM units (net of NOLs)
($MM)
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APPENDIX | SINGLE WELL ECONOMICS
SWE Cost Type Description of Cost Half Cycle Full Cycle
Well Costs
2,000 lbs of proppant per lateral foot and both fresh and flowback water
lbs or proppant per lateral foot Marcellus: $10.6MM Utica South/Dry: $12.2MM Utica Beaver: $11.5MM (60% AM water fees) Marcellus: $11.4MM Utica South/Dry: $12.8MM Utica Beaver: $12.2MM (100% AM water fees) Working Interest / Net Royalty Interest
respective plays Marcellus: 100% / 85% Utica: 100% / 81% Midstream Gathering Fees
and compression fees 60% of AM gathering fees 100% of AM gathering fees Firm Transportation(1)
variable fees associated with expected production Variable FT costs only of $0.06/Mcf (variable fees associated with expected production) Fully utilized FT costs of $0.54/Mcf (including both demand and variable fees) General & Administrative Costs
associated with Antero None $750,000 per well Land
spacing for Marcellus/Utica respectively and $3,600 per acre None Marcellus - $655,000 per well Utica - $1,087,000 per well Spud to FP Timing
first production 184 days spud to FP (Economics based on first production at 7/1/2018) Realized Pricing
06/30/2018 strip pricing (weighted)
(1) SWEs exclude marketing expenses and related commodity hedge contracts that support Antero’s firm transportation portfolio
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APPENDIX | SINGLE WELL ECONOMICS
Classification Highly-Rich Gas/Condensate Highly-Rich Gas Rich Gas Dry Gas
Modeled BTU 1313 1250 1150 1050 EUR (Bcfe): 32 29 26 24 EUR (MMBoe): 5.3 4.9 4.3 3.9 % Liquids: 33% 24% 11% 0% Well Cost ($MM): $10.6 $10.6 $10.6 $10.6 Bcfe/1,000’: 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 Net F&D ($/Mcfe)(1): $0.40 $0.43 $0.49 $0.53 Net Direct Operating Expense ($/Mcfe): $1.26 $1.33 $1.39 $1.05 Transportation Expense ($/Mcfe): $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 Pre-Tax NPV10 ($MM): $27.0 $16.5 $6.6 $3.9 Pre-Tax Half Cycle ROR: 200% 89% 32% 21% Payout (Years): 0.5 1.5 2.8 4.1 Gross Core Locations in BTU Regime: 447 935 495 874
Cumulative Volumes Highly-Rich Gas/Condensate Highly-Rich Gas Rich Gas Dry Gas Gas (MMcf) Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) Oil (Mbbl) Gas (MMcf) Oil (Mbbl)
Year 1 4,300 116 4,300 24 4,300 4,300 Year 2 6,500 143 6,500 31 6,500 6,500 Year 3 7,900 152 7,900 36 7,900 7,900 Year 4 9,100 157 9,100 40 9,100 9,100 Year 5 10,200 161 10,200 44 10,200 10,200 Year 10 13,900 176 13,900 57 13,900 13,900 Year 20 18,500 194 18,500 73 18,500 18,500
Note: SWE cost assumptions reflect average costs per Mcfe on the first five years of the life of a well. F&D cost is defined as current D&C cost per 1,000’ lateral divided by net EUR per 1,000’ lateral assuming 85% NRI in Marcellus. Please see “Antero Definitions” and “Antero Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix.
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APPENDIX | SINGLE WELL ECONOMICS
Note: SWE cost assumptions reflect average costs per Mcfe on the first five years of the life of a well. F&D cost is defined as current D&C cost per 1,000’ lateral divided by net EUR per 1,000’ lateral assuming 81% NRI in Utica. Please see “Antero Definitions” and “Antero Non-GAAP Measures” in the Appendix.
Classification Condensate Highly-Rich Gas/ Condensate Highly-Rich Gas Rich Gas Dry Gas
Modeled BTU 1275 1235 1215 1175 1050 EUR (Bcfe): 13 25 29 28 26 EUR (MMBoe): 2.2 4.2 4.8 4.6 4.4 % Liquids 40% 30% 21% 16% 0% Well Cost ($MM): $10.8 $11.5 $12.2 $12.2 $12.2 Bcfe/1,000’: 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 Net F&D ($/Mcfe)(1): $1.03 $0.57 $0.53 $0.55 $0.57 Net Direct Operating Expense ($/Mcfe): $1.18 $1.32 $1.44 $1.47 $0.85 Transportation Expense ($/Mcfe): $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 Pre-Tax NPV10 ($MM): $8.8 $17.9 $12.1 $8.4 $8.6 Pre-Tax Half Cycle ROR: 59% 139% 58% 39% 36% Payout (Years): 1.7 0.4 1.8 2.1 2.6 Gross Core Locations in BTU Regime: 206 27 22 102 187
Cumulative Volumes Condensate Highly-Rich Gas/ Condensate Highly-Rich Gas Rich Gas Dry Gas
Gas (Mmcf) Oil (Bbl) Gas (Mmcf) Oil (Bbl) Gas (Mmcf) Oil (Bbl) Gas (Mmcf) Oil (Bbl) Gas (Mmcf) Oil (Bbl) Year 1 1,600 129 4,300 110 5,600 6 5,400 5,500 Year 2 2,300 153 5,800 127 7,700 8 7,500 8,200 Year 3 2,800 166 6,900 138 9,100 9 8,800 10,000 Year 4 3,300 176 7,700 146 10,200 10 9,900 11,400 Year 5 3,600 186 8,400 152 11,100 11 10,800 12,500 Year 10 5,000 219 10,900 175 14,500 14 14,100 16,500 Year 20 6,700 258 14,000 202 18,700 19 18,200 21,200
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APPENDIX | DISCLOSURES & RECONCILIATIONS
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX, Stand-alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX, Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow are financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). The non-GAAP financial measures used by the company may not be comparable to similarly titled measures utilized by other companies. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for their nearest GAAP measures. The Stand-alone measures are presented to isolate the results of the operations of Antero apart from the performance
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX and Stand-alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX The GAAP financial measure nearest to Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX is net income or loss including noncontrolling interest that will be reported in Antero’s consolidated financial statements. The GAAP financial measure nearest to Stand-alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX is Stand-alone net income or loss that will be reported in the Parent column of Antero’s guarantor footnote to its financial
EBITDAX described below, management believes that these measures are useful to an investor in evaluating the company’s financial performance because these measures:
items excluded from the calculation of such term, which can vary substantially from company to company depending upon accounting methods and book value of assets, capital structure and the method by which assets were acquired, among
Stand-alone basis) from period to period by removing the effect of its capital structure from its operating structure; and
consolidated and Stand-alone basis), in presentations to the company’s board of directors, and as a basis for strategic planning and forecasting. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX is also used by the board of directors as a performance measure in determining executive compensation. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX, as defined by our credit facility, is used by our lenders pursuant to covenants under our revolving credit facility and the indentures governing the company’s senior notes. There are significant limitations to using Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX and Stand-alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX as measures of performance, including the inability to analyze the effect of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the company’s net income on a consolidated and Stand-alone basis, the lack of comparability of results of operations of different companies and the different methods of calculating Adjusted EBITDAX reported by different companies. In addition, Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX and Stand-alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX provide no information regarding a company’s capital structure, borrowings, interest costs, capital expenditures, and working capital movement or tax position.
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APPENDIX | DISCLOSURES & RECONCILIATIONS
Antero has not included a reconciliation of Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX or Stand-alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX to their nearest GAAP financial measures for 2018 because it cannot do so without unreasonable effort and any attempt to do so would be inherently
Adjusted EBITDAX to net income from continuing operations including noncontrolling interest: Antero has a significant portfolio of commodity derivative contracts that it does not account for using hedge accounting, and forecasting unrealized gains or losses on this portfolio is impracticable and imprecise due to the price volatility of the underlying commodities. Antero is also forecasting no impact from franchise taxes, gain or loss on early extinguishment of debt, or gain or loss on sale of assets, for 2018. For income tax expense (benefit), Antero is forecasting a 2018 effective tax rate of 18% to 19%.
(in thousands) Consolidated Stand-alone E&P Low High Low High Interest expense $250,000 $300,000 $200,000 $220,000 Depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion expense 950,000 1,050,000 800,000 900,000 Impairment expense 100,000 125,000 100,000 125,000 Exploration expense 5,000 15,000 5,000 15,000 Equity-based compensation expense 95,000 115,000 70,000 90,000 Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliate 30,000 40,000 N/A N/A Distributions from unconsolidated affiliates 40,000 50,000 N/A N/A Distributions from limited partner interest in Antero Midstream N/A N/A 166,000 170,000
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APPENDIX | DISCLOSURES & RECONCILIATIONS
Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow The GAAP financial measure nearest to Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is cash flow from operating activities as reported in Antero’s consolidated financial statements. The GAAP financial measure nearest to Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow is Stand-alone cash flow from operating activities that will be reported in the Parent column of Antero’s guarantor footnote to its financial statements. Management believes that Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow are useful indicators of the company’s ability to internally fund its activities and to service or incur additional debt on a consolidated and Stand-alone basis. Management believes that changes in current assets and liabilities, which are excluded from the calculation of these measures, relate to the timing of cash receipts and disbursements and therefore may not relate to the period in which the operating activities occurred and generally do not have a material impact on the ability of the company to fund its
measuring its ability to generate excess cash from its operations. There are significant limitations to using Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow as measures of performance, including the inability to analyze the effect of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the company’s net income on a consolidated and Stand-alone E&P basis, the lack of comparability of results
alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow reported by different companies. Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Stand- alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow do not represent funds available for discretionary use because those funds may be required for debt service, capital expenditures, working capital, income taxes, franchise taxes, exploration expenses, and other commitments and
Antero has not included reconciliations of Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow to their nearest GAAP financial measures for 2018 because it would be impractical to forecast changes in current assets and liabilities. However, Antero is able to forecast the earn out payments expected from Antero Midstream associated with the water drop down transaction that occurred in 2015, each of which is a reconciling item between Stand-alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow, as applicable, and cash flow from operating activities as reported in the Parent column of Antero’s guarantor footnote to its financial statements. Antero forecasts these items to be $125 million in each of 2019 and 2020. Additionally, Antero is able to forecast lease maintenance expenditures and Stand-alone drilling and completion capital, each of which is a reconciling item between Free Cash Flow and its most comparable GAAP financial measure. For the 2018 to 2022 period, Antero forecasts cumulative lease maintenance expenditures of $200 million and cumulative Stand-alone E&P drilling and completion capital of $8.6 billion.
Antero Resources Stand-Alone Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
APPENDIX | DISCLOSURES & RECONCILIATIONS
AR Stand-Alone Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
($ in millions) Three Months Ended LTM Ended 6/30/2018 6/30/2018
Net income (loss) including noncontrolling interest $(136,385) $230,254 Commodity derivative gains (55,336) (211,640) Gains on settled commodity derivatives 95,884 335,252 Marketing derivative (gains) losses 110 (72,730) Gains (losses) on settled marketing derivatives (15,884) 94,158 Interest expense 54,388 222,479 Loss on early extinguishment of debt — 1,205 Income tax expense (25,573) (461,669) Depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion 202,283 759,260 Impairment of unproved properties 134,437 302,473 Impairment of gathering systems and facilities 4,470 4,470 Exploration expense 1,471 7,983 Gain on change in fair value of contingent acquisition consideration (3,947) (14,181) Equity-based compensation expense 13,204 65,070 Distributions from Antero Midstream 38,559 143,100 Equity in net income of Antero Midstream 26,926 74,056 Total Adjusted EBITDAX $334,607 $1,479,540
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Antero Resources Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
($ in millions) Three Months Ended LTM Ended 6/30/2018 6/30/2018
Net income (loss) including noncontrolling interest $(67,275) $453,149 Commodity derivative gains (55,336) (211,640) Gains on settled commodity derivatives 95,884 335,252 Marketing derivative (gains) losses 110 (72,730) Gains (losses) on settled marketing derivatives (15,884) 94,158 Interest expense 69,349 267,224 Loss on early extinguishment of debt — 1,500 Income tax benefit (25,573) (461,669) Depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion 238,750 889,707 Impairment of unproved properties 134,437 302,473 Impairment of gathering systems and facilities 8,501 31,932 Exploration expense 1,471 7,983 Equity-based compensation expense 19,071 91,194 Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliate (9,264) (31,466) Distributions from unconsolidated affiliate 10,810 32,270 Total Adjusted EBITDAX $405,051 $1,729,337 APPENDIX | DISCLOSURES & RECONCILIATIONS
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APPENDIX
79
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Definitions Antero Midstream views Adjusted EBITDA as an important indicator of the Partnership’s performance. Antero Midstream defines Adjusted EBITDA as Net Income before interest expense, depreciation expense, impairment expense, accretion of contingent acquisition consideration, equity-based compensation expense, excluding equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates and including cash distributions from unconsolidated affiliates. Antero Midstream uses Adjusted EBITDA to assess:
structure or historical cost basis;
without regard to financing or capital structure; and
The Partnership defines Distributable Cash Flow as Adjusted EBITDA less interest paid, income tax withholding payments and cash reserved for payments of income tax withholding upon vesting of equity-based compensation awards, cash reserved for bond interest and ongoing maintenance capital expenditures paid. Antero Midstream uses Distributable Cash Flow as a performance metric to compare the cash generating performance of the Partnership from period to period and to compare the cash generating performance for specific periods to the cash distributions (if any) that are expected to be paid to unitholders. Distributable Cash Flow does not reflect changes in working capital balances. The Partnership defines Free Cash Flow as cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital less capital
investments, service or incur additional debt, and assess the company’s financial performance and its ability to generate excess cash from its operations. Management believes that changes in operating assets and liabilities relate to the timing of cash receipts and disbursements and therefore may not relate to the period in which the operating activities occurred. The Partnership defines Return on Invested Capital as net income plus interest expense divided by average total liabilities and partners’ capital, excluding current liabilities. Management believes that Return on Invested Capital is a useful indicator of the Partnership’s return on its infrastructure investments. The Partnership defines Adjusted Operating Cash Flow as net cash provided by operating activities before changes in current assets and liabilities. See “Non-GAAP Measures” for additional detail.
APPENDIX
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The GAAP financial measure nearest to Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is cash flow from operating activities as reported in Antero Midstream’s consolidated financial statements. Management believes that Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is a useful indicator of the company’s ability to internally fund its activities and to service or incur additional debt. Management believes that changes in current assets and liabilities, which are excluded from the calculation of these measures, relate to the timing of cash receipts and disbursements and therefore may not relate to the period in which the operating activities occurred and generally do not have a material impact on the ability of the company to fund its operations. Management believes that Free Cash Flow is a useful measure for assessing the company’s financial performance and measuring its ability to generate excess cash from its operations. There are significant limitations to using Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow as measures of performance, including the inability to analyze the effect of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the company’s net income, the lack of comparability of results of operations of different companies and the different methods of calculating Adjusted Operating Cash Flow reported by different companies. Adjusted Operating Cash Flow does not represent funds available for discretionary use because those funds may be required for debt service, capital expenditures, working capital, income taxes, and other commitments and obligations. Antero Midstream has not included reconciliations of Adjusted Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow to their nearest GAAP financial measures for 2018 because it would be impractical to forecast changes in current assets and liabilities. Antero Midstream is able to forecast capital expenditures, which is a reconciling item between Free Cash Flow and its most comparable GAAP financial measure. For the 2018 to 2022 period, Antero forecasts cumulative capital expenditures of $2.7 billion. Antero Resources non-GAAP measures and definitions are included in the Antero Resources analyst day presentation, which can be found on www.anteroresources.com.
APPENDIX
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Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures. The GAAP measure most directly comparable to Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow is Net Income. The non-GAAP financial measures of Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow should not be considered as alternatives to the GAAP measure of Net Income. Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow are not presentations made in accordance with GAAP and have important limitations as an analytical tool because they include some, but not all, items that affect Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA. You should not consider Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow in isolation or as a substitute for analyses of results as reported under GAAP. Antero Midstream’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other partnerships . Antero Midstream has not included a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to the nearest GAAP financial measure for 2018 because it cannot do so without unreasonable effort and any attempt to do so would be inherently imprecise. Antero Midstream is able to forecast the following reconciling items between Adjusted EBITDA and net income (in thousands): The Partnership cannot forecast interest expense due to the timing and uncertainty of debt issuances and associated interest rates. Additionally, Antero Midstream cannot reasonably forecast impairment expense as the impairment is driven by a number of factors that will be determined in the future and are beyond Antero Midstream’s control currently. Twelve months ended December 31, 2018 Low High Depreciation expense ........................................................................................... $ 160,000 — $ 170,000 Equity based compensation expense ................................................................... 25,000 — 35,000 Accretion of contingent acquisition consideration .............................................. 15,000 — 20,000 Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates .................................................... 30,000 — 40,000 Distributions from unconsolidated affiliates........................................................ 40,000 — 50,000
APPENDIX
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Adjusted EBITDA and DCF Reconciliation ($ in thousands)
Three months ended June 30, 2017 2018 Net income $ 87,175 $ 109,466 Interest expense 9,015 14,628 Impairment of property and equipment expense — 4,614 Depreciation expense 30,512 36,433 Accretion of contingent acquisition consideration 3,590 3,947 Accretion of asset retirement obligations — 34 Equity-based compensation 6,951 5,867 Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (3,623) (9,264) Distributions from unconsolidated affiliates 5,820 10,810 Gain on sale of assets- Antero Resources — (583) Adjusted EBITDA 139,440 175,952 Interest paid (2,308) 372 Decrease in cash reserved for bond interest (1) (8,734) (8,734) Income tax withholding upon vesting of Antero Midstream Partners LP equity-based compensation awards(2) (2,431) (1,500) Maintenance capital expenditures(3) (16,422) (16,000) Distributable Cash Flow $ 109,545 $ 150,090 Distributions Declared to Antero Midstream Holders Limited Partners 59,695 72,943 Incentive distribution rights 15,328 28,461 Total Aggregate Distributions $ 75,023 $ 101,404 DCF coverage ratio 1.5x 1.3x
1) Cash reserved for bond interest expense on Antero Midstream’s 5.375% senior notes outstanding during the period that is paid on a semi-annual basis on March 15th and September 15th of each year. 2) Estimate of current period portion of expected cash payment for income tax withholding attributable to vesting of Midstream LTIP equity-based compensation awards to be paid in the fourth quarter. 3) Maintenance capital expenditures represent the portion of our estimated capital expenditures associated with (i) the connection of new wells to our gathering and processing systems that we believe will be necessary to
Regarding Hydrocarbon Quantities
The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserve estimates (collectively, “3P”). Antero has provided internally generated estimates for proved, probable and possible reserves in this presentation in accordance with SEC guidelines and definitions. The estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves as of December 31, 2017 included in this presentation have been audited by Antero’s third-party engineers. Unless otherwise noted, reserve estimates as of December 31, 2017 assume ethane rejection and strip pricing. Actual quantities that may be ultimately recovered from Antero’s interests may differ substantially from the estimates in this presentation. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of Antero’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by commodity prices, the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals and other factors; and actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates. In this presentation:
SEC due to the different levels of certainty associated with each reserve category.
that may be potentially recovered from a hypothetical future well completed as a producer in the area. These quantities do not necessarily constitute or represent reserves within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineer’s Petroleum Resource Management System or the SEC’s oil and natural gas disclosure rules.
Marcellus Shale and 1225 BTU and 1250 BTU in the Utica Shale.
and 1200 BTU and 1225 BTU in the Utica Shale.
commercial extraction or to require their removal in order to render the gas suitable for fuel use.
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APPENDIX | DISCLOSURES & RECONCILIATIONS