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14th European Round Table on Coal Coal to Liquid Fuels, Natural Gas & Chemicals: A Global Perspective Serge Prineau 14 th European Round Table on Coal May 31, 2011 www.world-ctl.com 1 Coal to Fluid Hydrocarbons Framework

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14th European Round Table on Coal – May 31, 2011

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Serge Périneau

Coal to Liquid Fuels, Natural Gas & Chemicals: A Global Perspective

14th European Round Table on Coal

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  • Framework

– Energy Security – Technologies – Environment – Economics

  • Current Development

– Commercial Units – Projects – International Co-operation

Coal to Fluid Hydrocarbons

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Coal Conversion

Energy Security

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A Growing Demand in Oil, whatever IEA scenario

1985 2030

Source: IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2009

5,500 5,000 4,000 4,500 3,500 2,500 3,000 1985 2030 2007

Transport Power Residential Industry Heavy duty Light duty Aviation Rail Marine

Oil consumption forecast (Mt/year) R e f e r e n c e s c e n a r i

  • 450 ppm scenario

2010 2011

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Oil, Gas and Coal: Reserves

Years

BP Statistics - 2010 Annual Report

Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 Coal reserves modified for China, Indonesia, Mongolia

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Oil, Gas and Coal: Reserves + 10% of Resources

Years Reserves 10% resources

Source: BGR Annual report (2010)

10% resources Energy unit: Gt Oil equivalent Reserves

2010 Annual Report (BGR)

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A major energy security stake

proved reserves

Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 Coal reserves modified for China, Indonesia, Mongolia

Years

consumption Ratio

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Coal Conversion

Technology

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground Fischer-Tropsch

Liquid Fuels Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Methanol Dissolution Hydrotreatment Refining Liquefaction

Indirect routes Direct route

Majiata (Inner Mongolia) Jamg (Shanxi, China) Secunda (RSA)

Methanation

Natural Gas

Great Plains, ND (USA)

Petrochemicals Liquid Fuels Liquid Fuels

Methanol To Gasoline

Lu’An (China)

Refining

Yitai (China)

Methanol To Olefins

Baotou (I. Mongolia)

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground Fischer-Tropsch

Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2

Indirect routes

Secunda (RSA)

Liquid Fuels

Lu’An (China)

Refining

Yitai (China)

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground

Liquid Fuels Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Methanol

Indirect routes

Jamg (Shanxi, China)

Methanol To Gasoline

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground

Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Methanol

Indirect routes

Petrochemicals

Methanol To Olefins

Baotou (I. Mongolia)

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground

Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2

Indirect routes

Methanation

Natural Gas

Great Plains, ND (USA)

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground

Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Dissolution Hydrotreatment Refining Liquefaction

Indirect routes Direct route

Majiata (Inner Mongolia)

Liquid Fuels

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Technologies: conventional conversion routes

Gasification Surface/ Underground Fischer-Tropsch

Liquid Fuels Coal

Synthetic gas - CO+H2 Methanol Dissolution Hydrotreatment Refining Liquefaction

Indirect routes Direct route

Majiata (Inner Mongolia) Jamg (Shanxi, China) Secunda (RSA)

Methanation

Natural Gas

Great Plains, ND (USA)

Petrochemicals Liquid Fuels Liquid Fuels

Methanol To Gasoline

Lu’An (China)

Refining

Yitai (China)

Methanol To Olefins

Baotou (I. Mongolia)

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Coal Conversion

Environment

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Environment: Coal is most controversial

M a r c h 2 , 2 9 , W a s h i n g t

  • n

D C ( R e u t e r s ) M a r c h 2 6 , 2 9 , W

  • r

l d C T L C

  • n

f e r e n c e

« Coal is My Worst Nightmare »

Steven Chu, Nobel physicist, U.S. Energy Secretary

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Three steps:

  • Coal mining: need for a responsible sourcing
  • Conversion itself

– Need for water: 1 to 2 m3 per barrel: an issue in several regions – Ashes, gaseous and liquid noxious emissions: managed through classical chemical processes

  • Combustion: synthetic fuels are purer than from conventional fuels.

Environment: Local Stakes

Source: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sulfur oxides

  • Part. matter

(<10 ppm) Nitrogen oxides CO Volatile org.

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Global Issue: GreenHouse Gas Emissions

Case 1: Diesel produces from coal without CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage) Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile):

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Diesel from crude oil CTL diesel w/o CCS

Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *)

+63-100%

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Global Issue: CCS & Biomass are CTL’s best allies

Case 2: Diesel produced from coal with CCS:

  • CCS reduces by 90-95% the CO2 emissions within the CTL plant
  • CCS is now included in most CTL projects.

Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile):

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Diesel from crude oil CTL diesel w/o CCS CTL diesel with CCS * CTL diesel with 30% biomass CTL diesel, CCS & 30% biomass CTL diesel, CCS & 15% biomass *

Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *)

  • 5-12%
  • 4%
  • 46%
  • 30%

+63-100%

Reference: conventional diesel

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CCS: Cost Breakdown

Capture

$25-75 per tonne CO2

Transport I njection

$1-5 per tonne CO2/ 100 km $1-2 Per tonne CO2

Source: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - 2005

In a CTL plant, CO2 is already captured

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Coal Conversion

Economics

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At Present Barrel Price, a Profitable Activity

2006

$/bbl - Crude Oil Equivalent

2007 2008 Rand

Shenhua

JP Morgan U.S. DOE U.S. DOE U.S. National Research Council U.S. National Coal Council 2009 JGC JGC PEI PEI Technology providers NRC Nal

  • Acad. Yitai

2010 2011 IFP: Europe IFP: USA IFP: China

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Sensitivity Analysis

Source: U.S. DOE 2007

Variation of the Return on Investment in % for +/-25% variation of… Other parameters: CO2 impact, subsidies, discount rate,…

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A Capital Intensive Industry (40-50,000 bpd unit)

2006

x000$ / daily bbl

2007 2008

Shenhua JP Morgan

DOE DOE NCC 2009 PEI Technology providers

Scully Capital

SSEB NRC Nal Acad. 2010 2011

bpd25k

Reported Capital Expenditure - 40-50,000 bpd unit

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Coal Conversion

Current Developments

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Many Projects, Several Demonstration Plants

Philippines Mongolia Arckaringa Mmamabula Waterberg Tata Sasol Assam Irkutsk Secunda Sasolburg Operations Projects Geleximco Clinton Ordos Posco Fox Creek

SNG CTL

4.3 Mm3/d 20,000 bpd 160,000 bpd

Great Plans, ND Bumi & Sasol Spitfire Oil L&M Lignite Monash Latrobe

4,000 bpd

Lu’An

4,000 bpd

Yitai Serafimovskiy Jindal

3,000 bpd

JAMG Baotou

600,000 tpa

Leuna

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CTL projections

Source: U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency (2009)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2011 2020 2030 2025 2015 2009

CTL

Oil shale

BTL

2011 2020 2030 2025 2015 2009

750 900

250 200 150 100 50

2,750

Sources: China Coal Information Institute (2009) and Shenhua (2010)

x000 barrels/day

2,700 700

Forecasts published in

  • the U.S.A.
  • the P.R. China

Shenhua 110 kbpd Shenhua 442 kbpd

x000 barrels/day

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World CTL, a European Initiative to Boost Co-operations

Presentations, networking, appraisal

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  • Coal is fully available.
  • The predominant role of conversion is energy security.
  • Environment is a key issue. Technology, CCS and Biomass are the

best allies of CTL.

  • Several Demonstration Plants are now in operation.
  • CTL is highly competitive at current energy prices, although capital

intensive.

  • China has taken the lead.
  • International Co-Operation keeps developing.

Conclusion

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Gasification Asia Pacific 2011

Beijing, June 8-9, 2011

World CTL 2012

Delhi, January 18-20, 2012

management2011@world-ctl.com

Thank you.

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