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Comprehensive Plan Update Background Materials June 2018

Comprehensive Planning

• ND Century Code
• “zoning...[is required to be] in

accordance with a comprehensive plan...”

• Big Picture, Long Range
• Consistent decision-making aimed

at achieving a vision

• Shared expectations
• Guiding principles
• Coordinated Strategies/Topics

Public Input Role

Ward County is in the process of developing a Comprehensive Plan to help prepare the County for the future. The Plan is a tool to maintain and improve quality of life for the County’s residents and to build a more resilient County. Understanding what matters to County residents is key to developing the Plan. The Comprehensive Plan is an official document adopted by the Ward County Board of County Commissioners as a policy guide, vision, and roadmap for the future. It will identify critical topics and develop strategies to address these topics. The planning process is expected to be completed by March 2019, and will be followed by updates to the County’s zoning and subdivision regulations.

Plan Development

• Elements of the Comprehensive Plan
• Existing and Projected Conditions
• Infrastructure and Transportation Needs Analysis
• Growth and Development Framework
• Comprehensive & Transportation Plan Document

Development

Ward County Snapshot

• Intergovernmental
• Maps on various jurisdictions help identify factors that

could or should influence development, or should be consulted about potential issues or opportunities

• Demographics and Housing
• Demographic and housing changes and characteristics

help identify potential issues and opportunities to be addressed in the plan

• Economy
• Economic indicators help to interpret influences on

demographic and housing issues and opportunities

Terrain

Floodplain

• Floodplain maps of certain parts
• f Ward County date back

approximately 40 years

• A study to update some of the

floodplain mapping in Ward County in currently underway

• There are over 2600 properties in

Ward County that have flood insurance

• A,AE, AE Floodway zones are all

areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding

• Mortgages for properties in areas

with 1% annual chance of flooding must carry flood insurance

Rural Water

Septic Systems

• A wide variety of soil, terrain,

and water table conditions impact rural septic system design

• Two rural community septic

systems by Minot & one by Rice Lake

• Three general onsite septic

system designs are common

1. Standard Absorption Trenches 2. Pressurized Seepage Beds 3. Above Grade Mound Systems

Agriculture

• test

Prime Farmland

• Terrain, soil type, and water

availability all influence what is considered prime farmland

• Ward County has a key role in the

production and processing of agricultural commodities

Rural Fire Districts

Zoning

• 92% of the land outside cities is

used for agriculture

• 16 townships have their own

zoning

• Zoning in the remaining

townships is administered by Ward County

• Some cities have established

extraterritorial zoning that regulates land use for a limited distance outside their municipal boundaries

Historical Population

• Ward County was the largest county by land area in North Dakota until it was split into

Renville, Mountrail, Burke, and Ward County in 1910.

• It’s 1900 population was 7,961
• Three major factors pertaining to Ward County’s population growth spurts were the baby

boomer, the development of the Minot Air Force Base, and the recent Bakken Oil Boom.

• 2016 ND Housing Needs Assessment forecasts (2014-2029:
• 48.9% growth for ages 25-44
• 38.2% growth for ages 65+
• Increase of 3,897 households with income levels under $60,000
• 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

• Est. 2017

Ward Outside of Minot Minot Share

1957 1946-1964 2009-2014

Historical City Population

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Burlington 300 270 200 200 262 247 762 995 1,096 1,060 1,191 Minot 575 1,277 6,188 10,476 16,099 16,577 22,032 30,604 32,290 32,843 34,544 36,567 40,888 48,743 Sawyer 327 241 206 271 264 390 373 417 319 377 357 338 Surrey 309 361 999 856 917 934 1,365 Berthold 454 498 511 428 459 431 398 485 409 466 454 495 Des Lacs 188 205 197 180 185 197 212 216 209 204 199 Carpio 257 244 344 322 194 199 215 244 178 148 157 148 Douglas 171 284 288 313 236 210 144 112 93 64 64 61 Ryder 338 483 457 467 330 264 211 158 121 92 85 80 Makoti 283 276 212 219 214 159 199 145 145 154 148 Donnybrook 297 267 259 215 207 196 163 139 106 90 59 54 Kenmare 1,437 1,446 1,494 1,528 1,712 1,696 1,515 1,456 1,214 1,081 1,096 1,059 Minot AFB 12,077 9,880 9,095 7,599 5,521 5,964 % of County 34% 16% 38% 51% 61% 65% 75% 74% 83% 82% 83% 83% 83% 85.2%

Population Projections

60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 2010 2014 2015 2019 2020 2024 2025 2029 2030 2035 2040

Ward County Future Population by Year from Three 2016 Studies

CO Expected Migr CO Low Migr CO High Migr HFA Projection VW High High VW Low Low VW Mid Mid

• Three different population forecasts with multiple scenarios were prepared in 2016
• ND Census Office (CO)
• ND Housing Finance Agency (MFA)
• Vision West ND (VW)
• The population forecast and scenario that most closely matches recent estimates suggests

Ward County’s population will grow from 61,675 in 2010 to 84,924 in 2040

• Economic factors were a major determinant in the level of future growth

Forecast best matching current trends

Factors of Change

• Population Change = Births – Deaths

+ Net Migration

• Migration Influences
• Economic Conditions
• Job availability
• Cost of living
• Social Conditions
• Family & friends
• Quality of life
• High percentage of 22-34 year olds

reflects influence of Air Force Base personnel

• High number of young children

illustrates recent growth in family formation

%6 %4 %2 % %2 %4 %6 Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 17 years 18 and 19 years 20 years 21 years 22 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 and 61 years 62 to 64 years 65 and 66 years 67 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Female: Male:

Household Trends

• Estimated 76% of all

Ward households are in Minot

• Change in Persons Per

Household

• 2000 Census

2.46

• 2010 Census

2.36

• 2012-16 ACS

2.48

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1990 2000 2010 2016 Total households

Cost of Housing

• The threshold at which housing is typically considered affordable is when housing costs

are 30% or less of household income. More than 16% of Ward County owner households are paying more than 30% of household income for housing. More than 38% of Ward County renter households are paying more than 30% of household income for housing.

• This threshold is often measured in terms of Median Family Income (MFI) for a location
• A recent forecast indicates between 2014 and 2029, the three lowest household income

categories will see significant increases:

• 0-30% MFI – increase 25%
• 31-50% MFI – increase 23.8%
• 51-80% MFI – increase 30.1%

Cost of Housing

• In 2014, 67% of

Ward County owner

• ccupied housing

units were valued at $125,000 or more

• In 2014, 39% of

Ward County owner

• ccupied housing

units were valued at $200,000 or more

• Charts show percent of Housing Units that are Affordable to

Families with Specific Income Levels in Ward County & ND, 2014

Economy

Economy

Year Labor Force Employed Unemployed (%) Unemployed 2010 31526 30436 1090 3.5 2011 32491 31454 1037 3.2 2012 33955 33055 900 2.7 2013 34493 33558 935 2.7 2014 34553 33647 906 2.6 2015 34299 33205 1094 3.2 2016 33679 32301 1378 4.1 2017 32971 31909 1062 3.2

Economy

• Three significant contributors to Ward

County’s economy are the Minot Air Force Base, the Oil and Gas Industry, and Agriculture

• According to a 2017 report the MAFB

has 6,611 direct employees, and an additional 5,584 dependents

• At its peak in 2014, the oil and gas

industry represented 15% of the total employment in Ward County

Economy

Agricultural Quickfacts (source USDA, NASS)

• Market Value of Ag Products Sold Including Direct Sales:
• 2012 – $274,458,000 (93% from grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas)
• 2007 - $167,957,000 (91% from grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas)
• Land in Farms in 2012: 1,073,283 acres
• Average Farm Size in 2012: 1,117 acres
• Number of Farms in 2012: 961
• Farms by Value of Sales in 2012:
• Less than $2,500

248

• $2,500 - $9,999

110

• $10,000 - $24,999

62

• $25,000 – $99,999

164

• $100,000 or more

377

Industry 2017 Employees 2017 Establishments 2010 Employees 2010 Establishments % Change 2010 to 2017 Retail Trade 5227 296 5058 275 3.3% Health Care and Social Assistance 4937 196 5006 165

• 1.4%

Accommodation and Food Services 3650 189 3698 171

• 1.3%

Educational Services 3039 36 2821 31 7.7% Construction 1877 307 1791 251 4.8% Wholesale Trade 1788 159 1447 132 23.6% Public Administration 1649 45 1494 48 10.4% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 1421 63 732 33 94.1% Transportation and Warehousing 1411 162 1055 115 33.7% Finance and Industry 1333 155 1732 130

• 23.0%

Other Services (except Public Administration) 1209 178 1172 158 3.2% Administrative and Waste Services 1174 156 1184 121

• 0.8%

Professional and Technical Services 916 223 722 167 26.9% Manufacturing 469 50 696 57

• 32.6%

Information 455 21 543 30

• 16.2%

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 442 98 393 73 12.5% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 438 56 381 42 15.0% Utilities 130 8 118 8 10.2% Management of Companies and Enterprises 71 11 13 4 446.2% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 47 19 38 11 23.7% All Industries 31683 2428 30278 2022 4.6%

Economy

4th Quarter 2010 & 2017 Industry Employment and Establishments*

*excludes certain classes of workers

Transportation Systems Analysis

• Comprehensive Plan includes a more

detailed transportation element with the following key features:

• Summarize Systems Data
• Identify Critical Needs
• Consistency with Regional & Statewide

Trends

• Corridor Preservation & Management
• Capital Improvement Program

System Consistency

The Comprehensive Plan will develop a transportation system strategy in cooperation with and consistent with key partners:

• NDDOT
• City of Minot
• Townships

Areas of consideration will include at least the following key factors:

• Functional Class
• Corridor Preservation
• Jurisdiction Transfers & Cooperative Projects

Minot 2035 Plan: Urbanizing Study Area Ward County Plan: Consistency with urbanizing areas around Minot

Functional Classification

• The Comprehensive Plan

will evaluate existing functional class to match existing and projected trends in the County.

• Functional Class assists in

determining a roadways relative priority in the following areas:

• Funding
• Access
• Right of Way

Road Surface Type

• Pavement management

and roadway surface type recommendations will be developed as part of the plan update.

• Recommendations could

be based on the following factors:

• Development trends;
• Agricultural development;
• Industrial development;
• Safety

Pavement Condition

• Existing pavement data will

be used to determine pavement needs along the County Highway System.

• The map to the right shows

data on pavement conditions from 2015.

• Note: This map doesn’t reflect

recent projects completed on CR 10 and CR 23.

Bridge Sufficiency

• Ward County currently

has a significant investment in bridge infrastructure.

• Current data suggest the

bridge condition in Ward County is in good condition.

• Nearly 70% of bridge of

the bridge inventory has sufficiency rating of 80 or above.

• Note: This data is currently not

inclusive of 12 county bridges defined as a major structures.

Bridge Structure Type

• Ward County has a

range of structure types which make up its current bridge inventory.

• The map to the right

shows more information about the type of bridge structures maintain by Ward County.

• Note: this data is currently not

inclusive of 12 county bridges defined as a major structures.

Traffic

• Traffic data is a

significant input into the transportation planning process.

• The Comprehensive Plan

will evaluate existing traffic trends on the County Roadway System.

• Based on historic trends

and future projections, improvements may be recommended along various corridors or at specific intersections based on traffic conditions.

Crashes

• Crash data is a significant

input into the transportation planning process.

• The Comprehensive Plan

will evaluate existing crash trends on the County Roadway System.

• Based on historic trends

and future projections, improvements may be recommended along various corridors or at specific intersections based on crash data.

Load Restrictions

• Load restrictions are a

consideration in roadway design.

• The Comprehensive

Plan will evaluate factors which may lead to changes in investment to improve certain corridors to carry 105,500 loads.

• Understanding

agricultural and industrial needs in the County is important to making these decisions.

Gravel Pits

• The Comprehensive Plan

will evaluate issues which impact the County Roadway System. Gravel pits are a factor in roadway considerations.

• The graphic to the right

shows gravel pit activity in Ward County:

• Active: Activity present

between 2014 and 2018.

• Inactive: Activity present

between 2000 and 2013.

• Reclaimed: Pit appears to

have been reclaimed based off of imagery.

• Abandoned: Pit has not

been reclaimed and not active since 2000.

Right of Way

• The Comprehensive

Plan will look at corridor preservation issues.

• A primary issue related

to corridor preservation is right of way (ROW).

• The graphic to right is a

planning level illustration of existing ROW along Ward County corridors.

Rail

• The Comprehensive

Plan considers rail systems in Ward County.

• There are 318 miles of

rail lines running through Ward County.

• Considerations will

likely include at-grade rail crossings on the County Highway system.

Airports

• The Comprehensive

Plan considers active aviation systems in Ward County.

• There are a number of

low volume airstrips in Ward County.

• Consideration of

aviation infrastructure relates to transportation, land use and zoning issues.