Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Feb 22, 2024 342 likes •484 views

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles Introduction to TESLA Forecasting Solutions Who are TESLA Forecasting Solutions? Experts in electricity and gas Not to be confused

SLIDE 1

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Introduction to TESLA Forecasting Solutions

SLIDE 2

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Experts in electricity and gas demand forecasting since 1992 – this is our niche Helping clients across the globe with offices in the US, UK and New Zealand Not to be confused with Tesla Motors

Who are TESLA Forecasting Solutions?

SLIDE 3

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Some companies we have helped

SLIDE 4

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

TESLA

Products

Short Term Long Term Weather Risk Weather Decomp

TESLA process

Weather Data

TESLA

MODEL

Load & Customer Counts

SLIDE 5

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Complete weather inputs

MeteoGroup provide weather forecasts, updated every hour, for 14 day horizon Typical model contains several hundred hourly weather variables, not just temperature TESLA can utilise comparable weather forecasts as required

SLIDE 6

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Client model is crafted by our own econometricians

TESLA

MODEL

Winter and summer model Time varying coefficients School holiday and vacation patterns Interaction

f weather

variables Lag structure for delay effects Latent variable to proxy structural change

SLIDE 7

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Short Term Forecasting

Up to 14 day ahead forecast Can be updated every hour Simple risk analysis using the TESLA “Temperature Sensitivity” tool Short Term Forecast

SLIDE 8

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Long Term Forecasting

Same model - longer term scenarios consistent with short term Weather Risk solutions used after 14 day horizon Evidence based trends from demand data incorporated into the future Long Term Forecast

SLIDE 9

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Weather risk

Weather risk utilises historic observed weather Many scenarios computed and ordered into percentiles Percentiles are customisable dependant

n client demands

Useful for risk and scenario analysis Weather Risk Scenarios

SLIDE 10

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Weather decomposition

Adjusts historic demand series to climatic average “normal” weather conditions Hot summers and cold winters distort the underlying demand trends Year-on-year change can indicate network growth or shrinkage Useful for network and financial planning Weather Decomposition

SLIDE 11

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

The TESLA model is accurate

Awarded 2nd place out of 100+ participants in TEPCO forecasting challenge First time forecasting load in Japan, with minimal weather data The only overseas firm to place TESLA and TEPCO began collaborating after the contest

SLIDE 12

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Accurate on holidays

Golden Week Forecast

1.06% 1.11% 1.56%

0% 1% 2% Children's Day Observed Mon 6th May 2019 Children's Day Sun 5th May 2019 Greenery Day Sat 4th May 2019

8am Day Ahead MAPE

SLIDE 13

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Click to edit Master title style

Edit Master text styles

Come visit us at Booth AK23

Tony Baker

Asia Pacific Regional Director

3/34 Te Pai Place Henderson Auckland, 0610 New Zealand +64 (0) 9 551 5039

tbaker@teslaforecast.com

www.teslaforecast.com

Mark Todoroff

Business Development Director

3/34 Te Pai Place Henderson Auckland, 0610 New Zealand +64 (0) 9 551 5039

mtodoroff@teslaforecast.com