Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear Spring ing 2 2019 Stacey - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear Spring ing 2 2019 Stacey - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear Spring ing 2 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO W O WE E ARE Large D La Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d

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SLIDE 1

Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear

Spring ing 2 2019

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SLIDE 2

►

La Large D Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d in Co College St Station, TX TX

►

38+ Y 38+ Year H History

►

Clients a are a almost E Exclu lusiv ively ly S School D l Distric icts

►

Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined D d Demographic E Expe perience

WHO W O WE E ARE

Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. President Kris Pool Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst

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SLIDE 3

Economic D Data

  • Employment Projections
  • Recent Employment Trends

Current nt Stu tude dents

  • Geocode population
  • Count by grade and/or special

population

Long ng R Range P Planni nning ng

  • Attendance Zone Projections
  • Site Selection
  • Long Range Facilities Plan

WHAT W WE E D DO

Housing ing P Proje jectio ions

  • Ten-Year Projections for Single-

Family and Multi-Family Developments

  • NO EXTRAPOLATION
  • PASA is the Primary Data Source

for current housing stock

  • Projections for Vacant Parcels

Mapping ing

  • Aerial Imagery
  • Existing and Future Residential

Development

  • Factors Affecting or Limiting

Development

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SLIDE 4

Study Area

Planning Units align with subdivisions, MUDs, roadways Adjacent Areas with no ETJ assigned Consideration of all Census Tracts in North Fort Bend

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SLIDE 5

Demographic Characteristics

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 5-Year Estimate

Population 25 and Over: Bachelor's Degree or Higher 64.2% Owner-Occupied Housing 98.2% Three or More Vehicles in Household 34.7% Median Housing Value $415,900 Unemployment Rate 3.9% Mean Travel Time to Work (Minutes) 40 Median Household Income $174,194

Age Under 5 years 9.2% 5 to 17 years 25.5% 18 to 24 years 6.7% 25 to 34 years 9.9% 35 to 54 years 33.9% 55 to 74 years 13.3% 75 years and over 1.6%

City of Fulshear, 2017

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SLIDE 6

Monthly Employment Change

Houston Metro, Seasonally Adjusted

  • 15,000
  • 10,000
  • 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

13-May 13-Aug 13-Nov 14-Feb 14-May 14-Aug 14-Nov 15-Feb 15-May 15-Aug 15-Nov 16-Feb 16-May 16-Aug 16-Nov 17-Feb 17-May 17-Aug 17-Nov 18-Feb 18-May 18-Aug 18-Nov 19-Feb

JOBS MONTH

Employment Change (Non-Farm)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

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SLIDE 7

Annual Population Change

Houston Metro

103,902 112,236 118,317 137,692 94,417

  • 50,000

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

POPULATION CHANGE YEAR

Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 8

Annual Population Change

Fort Bend County

21,275 23,762 19,296 26,512 22,870

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

POPULATION CHANGE YEAR

Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 9

7-Year Population Change

Census Tracts

2010 Population 2017 Population Est.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6731.01

33,201 65,528 +32,327

6732

5,677 14,373 +8,696

6733

4,699 6,162 +1,463

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SLIDE 10

Age Cohorts

Census Tracts, 2017

% Under 5 % 5-17 % 60+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Five-Year American Community Survey

6731.01

8.9% 27.1% 8.6%

6732

10.7% 23.0% 9.8%

6733

4.4% 14.5% 36.3%

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SLIDE 11

City ty

3,904

ET ETJ

5,272

City + y + E ETJ 9,176 76

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SLIDE 12

City ty

12,025

ET ETJ

16,009

City + y + E ETJ 28,034

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SLIDE 13

► The

he oil il/ga gas s comp mpanies o

  • f

f Houst ston’s e energy gy sect ector h have s ve seen een growth in n 2018 2018

  • $62 in April 2019
  • West Texas drilling technology improving
  • Drilling = profitable below $50/barrel; and, going down

► Met

Metro em employmen ent jum umped ed in 2018 n 2018

  • 74,000+ jobs added in 2018
  • Greater Houston Partnership projects 71,000 total jobs

added in all of 2019. (Already +15,000 in Jan/Feb)

  • Healthcare sector projected to make up 12% of growth
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SLIDE 14

► Far W

Wes est S Subur uburbs bs: I Ind ndustrial W Wave

  • Companies relocating/consolidating in suburbs
  • Cheaper land; connections to other Metros
  • Far West suburbs = de facto pop. center to ~12 mil.
  • Houston = 7 million
  • San Antonio = 2.5 million
  • Austin = 2.2 million
  • E-Commerce (U.S. online retail sales: % of total)
  • 4Q18 = 9.

9.9% 9%; 4Q13 = 6.0%

  • Dollar Tree (Rosenberg); Costco (Katy); Twinwood

Business Park (Simonton)

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SLIDE 15

► Wes

estpark T Tollway/FM 1093 Ex M 1093 Extens ension

  • Construction ongoing to James Lane
  • Greatest benefits for areas west of downtown

► Tex

exas H Her eritage Pa e Parkway

  • North-south roadway that will connect I-10 to FM 1093
  • Necessary to allow passage through undeveloped tracts

► Int

nterstate 10 e 10 Widen ening ( (Waller er C Co.)

  • Indirect effect on Fulshear
  • Expect greater industrial/commercial demand
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SLIDE 16

► No

Now D Devel eveloping

►

Vanbrooke – Land nd Tejas as (ou (outside E ETJ ~30 ~30 hom homes occ

  • ccupied)

►

Pol

  • lo Ra
  • Ranch

h – Centu tury C Commu mmuniti ties es – now d develo loping

►

Kingsla sland H Heights s – St Star arlig ight Ho Homes – ne near I I-10

► Com

  • ming Soon

Soon

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Fulshear L Lakes kes – Sam Y Yager I Inc

  • nc. – north o
  • f Wes

eston L Lakes kes; fi first hom homes expected l late 2020/ 2020/early 2021; 2021; +/ +/- 1, 1,200 200 hom homes;

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SLIDE 17

► NE For

  • rt B

Bend C Co.

  • . rapidly

ly b build lding ou

  • ut

►

Fort Ben end ISD n D north o

  • f I

I-69

►

2019 2019-2023: 6,744 SF housing occupancies projected

►

2023 2023-2028: 2,363 (Decline of 65%, -4,300, expected)

►

Thus, s s, supply s shifts w s west

►

Fort Ben end ISD r D ranks ks #1 in new ew h home me s starts ( (4th

th ye

year i in n a row)

►

As sup upply d y dwind ndles, bul ulk o

  • f demand ini

niti tially s y shifts i in n prim imar arily t two dir irectio ions

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SLIDE 18

10-Year Projected Housing Occupancies

FBISD, KISD, LCISD Fulshear

Flood Plain/ Urbanized

  • S. Rosenberg/

Pleak

‘2 ‘23-’28 28 4,300 300-lot

  • t

de defi fici cit

Flood Plain/ Ge Geor

  • rge R

Ranch

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SLIDE 19

Tamarron: 555 Jordan Ranch: 352 Vanbrooke: 108 Cross Creek Ranch: 745 Fulbrook at Fulshear Creek: 119 Polo Ranch: 51

PROJECTED 2-YEAR HOUSING OCCUPANCIES

201 019–20 2020 20 Single-Family ly

Kingsland Heights: 79

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SLIDE 20

Tamarron: 3,164 Jordan Ranch: 2,427 Vanbrooke: 583 Cross Creek Ranch: 2,728 Fulbrook at Fulshear Creek: 799 Polo Ranch: 632

PROJECTED 10-YEAR HOUSING OCCUPANCIES

201 019–20 2028 28 Single-Family ly

Kingsland Heights: 462 Fulshear Lakes: 914

  • E. of 359:

3,200+

  • S. of 1093:

2,400+

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SLIDE 21

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028

Jan 2019–Oct 2019

878 80 83 1,041

Oct 2019–Oct 2020

1,083 180 83 1,346

Oct 2020–Oct 2021

1,270 155 25 75 1,525

Oct 2021–Oct 2022

1,611 140 30 75 1,856

Oct 2022–Oct 2023

1,933 240 85 75 2,333

Oct 2023–Oct 2024

2,273 235 145 75 2,728

Oct 2024–Oct 2025

2,367 320 175 75 2,937

Oct 2025–Oct 2026

2,433 335 195 75 3,038

Oct 2026–Oct 2027

2,501 375 215 75 3,166

Oct 2027–Oct 2028

2,449 400 215 29 3,093 Jan 2019–Oct 2023

6,775 795 140 391 8,101

Oct 2023–Oct 2028

12,023 1,665 945 329 14,962

Jan 2019–Oct 2028

18,798 2,460 1,085 720 23,063

SF MF MxUse 55+ MHP

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SLIDE 22

Typical Household Size

Hous using ng T Type Typical H l Household ld Si Size Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom 1.55–1.85 Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom 1.85–2.25 Single-Family, Family Oriented 3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak Single-Family, Age- Restricted 55+ 1.65–1.80 Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate 2.65–2.85

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SLIDE 23

Students per Home

Ka Katy ISD = = 0. 0.72 o 72 overa rall

  • Cinco

co R Ranch ch/Cross C Creek = = 0. 0.95 95 to 1. 1.30 30

Lamar r CI CISD = 0. = 0.57 o 57 overa rall

  • Cross Creek = 0.26 (was 0.10 in 2017)
  • Tamarron = 0.54 (was 0.46 in 2017)
  • Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek = 0.70
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SLIDE 24

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES

2018 Weigh eighted ed M Mean ean HH Siz ize in e in ent entir ire S e Stud udy Area = ea = 3.1 .15

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SLIDE 25

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Popula latio tion

14,14 141 16,18 187 18,04 040 19,95 953 22,02 022

% G Growt wth 17.60% 14.47% 11.45% 10.60% 10.37% Growt wth 2,116 2,046 1,853 1,913 2,069 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Popula latio tion

24,19 192 26,37 372 27,893 29,30 306 30,62 622

% G Growt wth 9.85% 9.01% 5.77% 5.07% 4.49% Growt wth 2,170 2,180 1,521 1,413 1,316

Moderate Growth Scenario

City Limits, October Estimates

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SLIDE 26

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Popula latio tion

18,27 271 20,18 184 22,65 652 25,85 852 29,81 811

% G Growt wth 14.13% 10.47% 12.23% 14.13% 15.31% Growt wth 2,262 1,913 2,468 3,200 3,959 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Popula latio tion

34,57 579 39,36 365 45,191 51,36 367 57,52 520

% G Growt wth 15.99% 13.84% 14.80% 13.67% 11.98% Growt wth 4,768 4,786 5,826 6,176 6,153

Moderate Growth Scenario

ETJ, October Estimates

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SLIDE 27

Three Scenarios of Growth

5, 5,00 000 15 15,000 00 25 25,000 00 35 35,000 00 45 45,000 00 55 55,000 00 65 65,000 00

20 2016 16 20 2018 18 20 2023 23 20 2028 28

POPULATION YEAR

ETJ CITY LIMITS

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SLIDE 28

Estimated & Projected Age Cohorts

City of Fulshear, 2018 & 2023

Cit ity of Ful ulshear *Estimate

% **Projection %

Under 5 Years 1,106

9.2%

2,195

10.0%

5 to 17 Years 3,066

25.5%

5,503

25.0%

18 to 24 Years 474

6.7%

1,204

5.5%

25 to 34 Years 1,190

9.9%

1,608

7.3%

35 to 54 Years 4,064

33.8%

6,722

30.5%

55 to 74 Years 1,599

13.3%

3,982

18.1%

75 Years and Over 192

1.6%

808

3.7%

All Age Group ups 12, 12,025 025 22, 22,022 022

Source: U.S. Census *Estimate is based on the Five-Year, 2017 American Community Survey **PASA projection

Age Group 2018 2018 2023 2023

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SLIDE 29

Estimated & Projected Population by Housing Type

City + ETJ, 2018, 2023, & 2028

Ho Housi sing Type Single-Family 27,810 99.20% 49,736 96.0% 81,875 92.9% Age- e-Res estricted ed SF 224 0.80% 908 1.8% 1,484 1.7% Multi-Fami mily 0.00% 1,189 2.3% 4,783 5.4% Population

28,034 51,833 88,142

*Housing Units in the City and ETJ

2018 2018 2023 2023 Projected 2028 2028 Projected

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SLIDE 30

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Demo Demographic Updat ate

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SLIDE 31

Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear

Spring ing 2 2019