Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear Spring ing 2 2019 Stacey - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ci City o y of F f Fuls lshear Spring ing 2 2019

Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO W O WE E ARE Large D La Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d in Co College St Station, TX TX ► 38+ Y 38+ Year H History ► Clients a are a almost E Exclu lusiv ively ly S School D l Distric icts ► Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined D d Demographic E Expe perience ►

Economic D Data Housing ing P Proje jectio ions Employment Projections • Recent Employment Trends • Ten-Year Projections for Single- • Family and Multi-Family Developments NO EXTRAPOLATION • Current nt Stu tude dents PASA is the Primary Data Source • for current housing stock Geocode population • Projections for Vacant Parcels • Count by grade and/or special • population WHAT W WE E D DO Mapping ing Long ng R Range P Planni nning ng Aerial Imagery • Existing and Future Residential • Attendance Zone Projections • Development Site Selection • Factors Affecting or Limiting • Long Range Facilities Plan • Development

Study Area Planning Units align with subdivisions, MUDs, roadways Adjacent Areas with no ETJ assigned Consideration of all Census Tracts in North Fort Bend

Demographic Characteristics City of Fulshear, 2017 Age Population 25 and Over: Under 5 years 9.2% 64.2% Bachelor's Degree or Higher 5 to 17 years 25.5% Owner-Occupied Housing 98.2% 18 to 24 years 6.7% Three or More Vehicles in 25 to 34 years 9.9% 34.7% Household 35 to 54 years 33.9% Median Housing Value $415,900 55 to 74 years 13.3% Unemployment Rate 3.9% 75 years and over 1.6% Mean Travel Time to Work 40 (Minutes) Median Household Income $174,194 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 5-Year Estimate

Monthly Employment Change Houston Metro, Seasonally Adjusted 25,000 Employment Change (Non-Farm) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 JOBS 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 13-May 13-Aug 13-Nov 14-Feb 14-May 14-Aug 14-Nov 15-Feb 15-May 15-Aug 15-Nov 16-Feb 16-May 16-Aug 16-Nov 17-Feb 17-May 17-Aug 17-Nov 18-Feb 18-May 18-Aug 18-Nov 19-Feb MONTH Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Annual Population Change Houston Metro 200,000 112,236 137,692 94,417 118,317 150,000 103,902 POPULATION CHANGE 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YEAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Annual Population Change Fort Bend County 35,000 23,762 30,000 22,870 26,512 25,000 21,275 19,296 POPULATION CHANGE 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YEAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

7-Year Population Change 6731.01 33,201 6732 65,528 Census Tracts 5,677 +32,327 14,373 2010 Population +8,696 2017 Population Est. 6733 4,699 6,162 +1,463 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Age Cohorts 6731.01 8.9% Census Tracts, 2017 6732 27.1% 10.7% 8.6% 23.0% % Under 5 % 5-17 9.8% % 60+ 6733 4.4% 14.5% 36.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Five-Year American Community Survey

City ty 3,904 ET ETJ 5,272 City + y + E ETJ 9,176 76

City ty 12,025 ET ETJ 16,009 City + y + E ETJ 28,034

► The he oil il/ga gas s comp mpanies o of f Houst ston’s e energy gy sect ector h have s ve seen een growth in n 2018 2018 $62 in April 2019 • West Texas drilling technology improving • Drilling = profitable below $50/barrel; and, going down • ► Met Metro em employmen ent jum umped ed in 2018 n 2018 74,000+ jobs added in 2018 • Greater Houston Partnership projects 71,000 total jobs • added in all of 2019. (Already +15,000 in Jan/Feb) Healthcare sector projected to make up 12% of growth •

► Far W Wes est S Subur uburbs bs: I Ind ndustrial W Wave Companies relocating/consolidating in suburbs • Cheaper land; connections to other Metros • Far West suburbs = de facto pop. center to ~12 mil. • Houston = 7 million • San Antonio = 2.5 million • Austin = 2.2 million • E-Commerce (U.S. online retail sales: % of total) • 4Q18 = 9. 9.9% 9%; 4Q13 = 6.0% • Dollar Tree (Rosenberg); Costco (Katy); Twinwood • Business Park (Simonton)

► Wes estpark T Tollway/FM 1093 Ex M 1093 Extens ension Construction ongoing to James Lane • Greatest benefits for areas west of downtown • ► Tex exas H Her eritage Pa e Parkway North-south roadway that will connect I-10 to FM 1093 • Necessary to allow passage through undeveloped tracts • ► Int nterstate 10 e 10 Widen ening ( (Waller er C Co.) Indirect effect on Fulshear • Expect greater industrial/commercial demand •

► No Now D Devel eveloping Vanbrooke – Land nd Tejas as (ou (outside E ETJ ~30 ~30 hom homes occ occupied) ► Pol olo Ra o Ranch h – Centu tury C Commu mmuniti ties es – now d develo loping ► Kingsla sland H Heights s – St Star arlig ight Ho Homes – ne near I I-10 ► ► Com oming Soon Soon Fulshear L Lakes kes – Sam Y Yager I Inc nc. – north o of Wes eston L Lakes kes; ► fi first hom homes expected l late 2020/ 2020/early 2021; 2021; +/ +/- 1, 1,200 200 hom homes;

► NE For ort B Bend C Co. o. rapidly ly b build lding ou out Fort Ben end ISD n D north o of I I-69 ► 2019 2019-2023: 6,744 SF housing occupancies projected ► 2023 2023-2028: 2,363 (Decline of 65%, -4,300, expected) ► Thus, s s, supply s shifts w s west ► th ye Fort Ben end ISD r D ranks ks #1 in new ew h home me s starts ( (4 th year i in n a row) ► As sup upply d y dwind ndles, bul ulk o of demand ini niti tially s y shifts i in n ► prim imar arily t two dir irectio ions

10-Year Projected Housing Occupancies ‘2 ‘23-’28 28 Fulshear FBISD, KISD, LCISD 4,300 300-lot ot de defi fici cit Flood Plain/ Urbanized S. Rosenberg/ Pleak Flood Plain/ Ge Geor orge R Ranch

Kingsland Heights: 79 PROJECTED Jordan Ranch: 352 Vanbrooke: 108 2-YEAR HOUSING Tamarron: 555 OCCUPANCIES Cross Creek Ranch: 745 201 019–20 2020 20 Single-Family ly Polo Ranch: 51 Fulbrook at Fulshear Creek: 119

Kingsland Heights: 462 PROJECTED Vanbrooke: 583 Jordan Ranch: 2,427 10-YEAR HOUSING Tamarron: 3,164 OCCUPANCIES E. of 359: Cross Creek Ranch: 2,728 3,200+ 201 019–20 2028 28 Single-Family ly S. of 1093: Fulshear Lakes: 914 2,400+ Polo Ranch: 632 Fulbrook at Fulshear Creek: 799

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2019–2028 MF 55+ MHP SF MxUse 878 80 0 83 0 1,041 Jan 2019–Oct 2019 1,083 180 0 83 0 1,346 Oct 2019–Oct 2020 1,270 155 25 75 0 1,525 Oct 2020–Oct 2021 1,611 140 30 75 0 1,856 Oct 2021–Oct 2022 1,933 240 85 75 0 2,333 Oct 2022–Oct 2023 2,273 235 145 75 0 2,728 Oct 2023–Oct 2024 2,367 320 175 75 0 2,937 Oct 2024–Oct 2025 2,433 335 195 75 0 3,038 Oct 2025–Oct 2026 2,501 375 215 75 0 3,166 Oct 2026–Oct 2027 2,449 400 215 29 0 3,093 Oct 2027–Oct 2028 6,775 795 140 391 0 8,101 Jan 2019–Oct 2023 12,023 1,665 945 329 0 14,962 Oct 2023–Oct 2028 18,798 2,460 1,085 720 0 23,063 Jan 2019–Oct 2028

Typical Household Size Typical H l Household ld Hous using ng T Type Si Size Multi-Family, majority 1.55–1.85 1-bedroom Multi-Family, majority 1.85–2.25 2+ bedroom Single-Family, Family 3.15–3.30 initially; Oriented 3.30–3.50 at peak Single-Family, Age- 1.65–1.80 Restricted 55+ Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate 2.65–2.85

Students per Home Ka Katy ISD = = 0. 0.72 o 72 overa rall  Cinco co R Ranch ch/Cross C Creek = = 0. 0.95 95 to 1. 1.30 30 Lamar r CI CISD = 0. = 0.57 o 57 overa rall  Cross Creek = 0.26 (was 0.10 in 2017)  Tamarron = 0.54 (was 0.46 in 2017)  Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek = 0.70

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES 2018 Weigh eighted ed M Mean ean HH Siz ize in e in ent entir ire S e Stud udy Area = ea = 3.1 .15

Moderate Growth Scenario City Limits, October Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14,14 141 16,18 187 18,04 040 19,95 953 22,02 022 Popula latio tion % G Growt wth 17.60% 14.47% 11.45% 10.60% 10.37% Growt wth 2,116 2,046 1,853 1,913 2,069 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 24,19 192 26,37 372 27,893 29,30 306 30,62 622 Popula latio tion % G Growt wth 9.85% 9.01% 5.77% 5.07% 4.49% Growt wth 2,170 2,180 1,521 1,413 1,316

Moderate Growth Scenario ETJ, October Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18,27 271 20,18 184 22,65 652 25,85 852 29,81 811 Popula latio tion % G Growt wth 14.13% 10.47% 12.23% 14.13% 15.31% Growt wth 2,262 1,913 2,468 3,200 3,959 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 34,57 579 39,36 365 45,191 51,36 367 57,52 520 Popula latio tion % G Growt wth 15.99% 13.84% 14.80% 13.67% 11.98% Growt wth 4,768 4,786 5,826 6,176 6,153