CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE CFA SOCIETY OF PHILADELPHIA KICKOFF LUNCHEON
Tuesday, November 6, 2012 3:00 PM
CFA SOCIETY OF PHILADELPHIA KICKOFF LUNCHEON Tuesday, November 6, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE CFA SOCIETY OF PHILADELPHIA KICKOFF LUNCHEON Tuesday, November 6, 2012 3:00 PM TODAYS PRESENTERS Kenn Lamson, CFA Portfolio Analytics Consultant, Vanguard Research Challenge Overview Peter Maher, CFA
Tuesday, November 6, 2012 3:00 PM
Kenn Lamson, CFA Portfolio Analytics Consultant, Vanguard “Research Challenge Overview” Peter Maher, CFA Analyst, Investments, The Board of Pensions of the Presbyterian Church U.S.A. “Ethics and Code of Standards” Timothy Hoyle, CFA Vice President, Research, The Haverford Trust Company “How to Write a Research Paper” Tom Kelly Senior Vice President, Crown Holdings (Subject Company) “Company Overview”
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Kenn Lamson, CFA Portfolio Analytics Consultant Vanguard
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Highlights:
Society
and Educational Events
Membership comprised of: CFA Charter Holders Adjunct Professionals Students
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Contact: Wayne Pasternack Phone: (212) 617 3606 E-mail: wpasternack@bloomberg.net
Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand Representing the CFA Society Thailand
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between teams of students
societies
participate
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writing
Equity Analyst
industry professionals
use on resume/CV and job interviews
professionals
2,500 volunteers worldwide
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University: Industry Mentor Delaware State University Charlie DyReyes Drexel University Michael Martorelli Rider University Cynthia Jones Scranton University Todd Sclanger
Andre D’Amico Villanova University Lee Grout Temple University Edward Hickey University of Pennsylvania Kelley McKee Widener University Sorin Roibu Thank you to our volunteer Industry Mentors for their involvement.
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Today Kick-Off Next 10 days Preliminary Research Register with CFA Institute 12/14/2012 1st Draft Due to Mentor 1/11/2013 Final Report Due Interim Report Grading 2/21/2013 Local Final Presentations 3/21/2013 Regional Final 4/12/2013 Global Final
(undergraduate or graduate)
university
university they represent and registered for at least a part-time course load at the time of the kickoff meeting
students’ original work
the subject company outside of
professionals other than the mentor or faculty advisor
the company
may NOT provide material non-public information
guidelines set forth by CFA Institute and include the cover and back pages provided by CFA Institute
presentations
agree to abide by the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct
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Faculty Advisor
methods and tools as taught in academia
time
unrelated to the Research Challenge is permitted
the students Industry Mentor
practice
development
assistance
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Professionals: An Interactive Case- Based Course
II—Integrity of Capital Markets
III—Duties to Clients
VI—Conflicts of Interest
VII—Responsibilities as a CFA Institute Member or CFA Candidate
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Section Maximum Points Comments Business Description 5 Lack of sufficient information to support recommendation. Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning 15 Not a comprehensive understanding of the company's positioning and/or competitors. No understanding of company's economic advantage, Overstated company's advantage - not grounded in facts. Investment Summary 20 Not logical. No or insufficient summary of salient points. Strategy is not grounded in financials. Valuation 20 Method is flawed. Not substantiated with industry information. Financial Analysis 20 Flawed assumptions. Too many errors in financial analysis. Financial analysis does not support conclusion. Investment Risks 15 Missed too many important risk items. Risk and conclusion are not logical. Other Headings 5 Missed important information available. Total 100
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“Crown Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, is a leading supplier of packaging products to consumer marketing companies around the world. World headquarters are located in Philadelphia, PA.”
www.crowncork.com Thank you to Crown Holdings for its participation in the Research Challenge!
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must be present for all student- subject company interactions
company suppliers, customers, vendors, etc.
Challenge website: www.researchchallenge.org
selected specifically for participants
presentations
teams
mentor
a timeline of the competition
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Peter Maher, CFA Analyst, Investments The Board of Pensions of the Presbyterian Church U.S.A.
Timothy Hoyle, CFA Vice President, Research The Haverford Trust Company
... that will enable the reader to make an improved decision
innovation, etc.)
capital (human, patents), customer relationship, geography, etc.
cost, co-dependence
repo, acquisitions, capex) of cash
changes, balance sheet impairs equity owners
* Assumes a buy recommendation
substitution, balance sheet deterioration, headline risks
Tom Kelly Senior Vice President, Crown Holdings
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1985 - $1.5 billion in revenue 1996 - $8.3 billion in revenue
Refinancings Divestitures
Oligopoly business Emerging market growth Strong cash flow Sustainability
10 20 30 40 50 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Acquisition Balance sheet Asbestos/ Credit rating Refinancing/Divestitures Emerging markets Cash flow EM
By the numbers:
the last 150 years is still in use.
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The weight of aluminum cans has been reduced 30% over the past 35 years. Steel packaging weighs 40% less than 30 years ago.
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NOTES TO INVESTORS
looking statements within the meaning of federal securities law. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors, that may cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking
actual results of operations or financial condition of the Company to differ are discussed under the caption "Forward Looking Statements" in the Company's Form 10-K Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2011 and in subsequent filings. The Company does not intend to review or revise any particular forward-looking statement in light of future events.
terms under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP measures). Non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for net income, cash flow or total debt data prepared in accordance with GAAP and may not be comparable to calculations
income, free cash flow and net debt are derived from the Company's Consolidated Statements of Operations and Cash Flows and Consolidated Balance Sheets, respectively, and reconciliations to non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, segment income, free cash flow and net debt, can be found in the "For Investors" section of the Company's website at www.crowncork.com
Tota
l Ne Net t Sales Sales - $8 $8.6 .6 Bil illi lion
2011 Highlights Adjusted EPS up 25% to $2.81 ($2.24 in 2010) Adjusted EBITDA $1,129 million ($1,042 in 2010) Global beverage can volumes up 9% More than $280 million capital for emerging market capacity expansion Repurchased $312 million of Company stock Repurchased $202 million of non-controlling interests 134 plants
41 countries 20,700 employees
Asia $862 European Specialty $434 European Food $1,999 European Beverage $1,669 North American Food $889 Americas Beverage $2,273 Aerosol $431 Other $87
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( ) = number of plants Plants by product Beverage 48 Food 60 Specialty Packaging 16 Aerosols & Other 10 134
$3.3 $2.8 $2.5 Latin America (10) Eastern Europe/ Africa (13)
2011 Sales $8.6 Billion 2011 Rest of World $2.5 Billion
$0.9
Rest of World (43) 29% US/Canada (36) 33% Western Europe (55) 38%
$0.6 $0.4 $0.6
Asia (15) Middle East (5)
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($ in millions)
12/11 12/10 2012 2011 2010 Change Change Net sales 4,131 $ 4,163 $ 3,787 $ (0.8%) 9.1% Segment income 431 461 391 (6.5%) 10.2% % margin 10.4% 11.1% 10.3% Adjusted EBITDA 518 546 479 (5.1%) 8.1% % margin 12.5% 13.1% 12.6% Earnings per share, ongoing operations $1.30 $1.32 $0.97 (1.5%) 34.0% Total net debt $3,561 $3,330 $2,567 Net debt/Adj EBITDA 3.2x 3.0x 2.6x Adj EBITDA/Interest Expense 4.8x 4.9x 4.6x For the six months ended June 30,
Beverage can volumes up 6% Sales FX ($137) in 2012 Segment income FX ($11) in 2012 Inventory holding gain $15-$20 in 2011
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$8,612 $8,644 $7,941 $7,938 $8,305 $7,728 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LTM June 2012
($ in millions) $923 $953 $870 $812 $808 $645
$500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LTM June 2012
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FX ($11)
(17) ($28)
FX ($72)
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$874 $1,024 $1,006 $1,042 $1,129 $0 $300 $600 $900 $1,200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($ in millions) $333 $508 $612 $250 $353
$0 $150 $300 $450 $600 $750 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Manaus Estancia Cabreuva Ponta Grossa
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Xinjiang Guangxi Hubei Gansu Fujian Shanxi Shandong Sichuan Yunnan Henan Zhejiang
Beijing Shanghai
Sichuan Xizang Xinjiang Qinghai Gansu Heilongjiang Jilin Chongqing Guizhou Liaoning Jiangsu Anhui Jiangxi Hunan Neimongu Tianjin Shaanxi Ningxia Hebei
White area = population 226 million Green area = population 705 million Red area = population 393 million
Guangdong
Hangzhou Putian Huizhou Heshan Ziyang
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Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Thailand Laos Cambodia
Beverage Existing Plants Beverage under construction Food/Aerosol
Haadyai Danang Hanoi Dong Nai Ho Chi Minh Bangi Phnom Penh Bangkok Sihanoukville
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Announced capacity additions and estimated start dates are shown below. Capacity additions total 13 billion cans. Sixteen (16) new production lines and two (2) line expansions across nine (9) new plants and existing plants. Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh line 2 4Q 2010 600 million Turkey – Izmit expansion 1Q 2011 350 million Brazil – Ponta Grossa line 1 1Q 2011 900 million Brazil – Ponta Grossa line 2 2Q 2011 900 million Slovakia line 2 2Q 2011 750 million Brazil – Estancia line 2 2Q 2011 900 million China – Hangzhou (Zhejiang) 2Q 2011 600 million Cambodia – Phnom Penh line 2 4Q 2011 700 million China – Putian (Fujian) 1Q 2012 700 million China – Ziyang (Sichuan) 2Q 2012 700 million Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh expansion 2Q 2012 700 million Turkey – Osmaniye 2Q 2012 700 million China – Heshan (Guangdong) 3Q 2012 700 million 9.2 billion Malaysia – Bangi line 2 1Q 2013 700 million China – Putian line 2 (Fujian) 2Q 2013 700 million Vietnam – Danang 2Q 2013 750 million Thailand – Bangkok 2Q 2013 700 million Cambodia – Sihanoukville 3Q 2013 725 million 12.8 billion * Crown sold 51 billion beverage cans globally in 2011.
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$104 $100 $114 $110 $110 $75 $220 $287 $190 $115 $40 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Average from 2005-2009 2010 2011 2012 E 2013 E Developed markets Emerging markets Insurance recovery $179 $320 $401 $340 $225
($ in millions)
$320 $300 $255 $250 $817 $371 $1,021 $401 $312 $202 $169
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
2010 2011 2012E Total E
Capex Share Repurchases Acquire Noncontrolling Interests
Cash Flow Priorities
programs
June 30, 2012
(US$ in Millions) Note: Excludes receivables securitization ($130) and miscellaneous other indebtedness ($282).
$414 $700 $633 $400 $627 $135 TA $90 $45 $335
RCF
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2021 2026/96
$470
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