"Can Photovoltaics Provide a Technical Fix to Controlling CO 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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"Can Photovoltaics Provide a Technical Fix to Controlling CO 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 10, 2022 232 likes •1.07k views

"Can Photovoltaics Provide a Technical Fix to Controlling CO 2 Emissions?" Martin A. Green, UNSW Sydney Recent cost reductions US$/Watt >15x in 10 years $0.22 Jan-19 PV now cheapest! How low? $10/MWh? (2018) (2017) (2016)

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Martin A. Green, UNSW Sydney

"Can Photovoltaics Provide a Technical Fix to Controlling CO2 Emissions?"

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Recent cost reductions

Jan-19

US$/Watt

$0.22

>15x in 10 years

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PV now cheapest!

How low? $10/MWh?

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Solar cheaper than retail electricity prices (2014) (2016) (2017) (2018)

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600MW, 15 GWh 888MW, $40-50/MWh

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PV market growing (> 0.1 TW in 2018)

2019f

January 16, 2019

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PV market growing (> 0.1 TW in 2018)

2019f

25%/year compounded

January 16, 2019

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PV market growing (> 0.1 TW in 2018)

2019f

25%/year compounded

10 20 30 40 50 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

PERC Capacity, % world total

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Global CO2 emissions

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Unresolved problem!

2oC trajectory

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Unresolved problem!

1TW solar

2oC trajectory

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Unresolved problem!

1TW solar

2oC trajectory

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Unresolved problem!

1TW solar

2oC trajectory

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Source of global CO2 emissions

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Positive impact for limited solar

Old record

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“Duck curve”

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“Duck curve”

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“Duck curve”

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“Duck curve”

Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

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“Duck curve”

Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

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“Duck curve”

Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

2023?

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“Duck curve”

Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

2023?

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“Duck curve”

  • 1. Storage
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Pumped hydro

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Pumped hydro

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Japan’s summer peak

Noon Mid- summer

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Japan’s summer peak

Noon Mid- summer

25 GW

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Japan’s summer peak

25 GW

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Pumped hydro

Kyushu, May 4, 2016

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Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale

5 GWh 5 GWh 15 GWh

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Snowy 2.0 (2GW, 350GWh)

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“Off river” pumped hydro Presenzano (1GW, 5GWh)

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“Off river” pumped hydro

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“Off river” pumped hydro

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Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale (100MW, 129MWh)

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Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale (100MW, 129MWh)

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Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale (100MW, 129MWh)

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Vanadium Redox Flow (200MW, 800MWh)

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Vanadium Redox Flow (200MW, 800MWh)

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“Duck curve”

  • 2. Load switching
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Load switching: Boost daytime not night demand

  • 2. Load matching

Day of NSW peak demand in 2003 Summer

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Load switching: Boost daytime not night demand

  • 2. Load matching

2004

Day of peak demand in 2002 Winter Day of NSW peak demand in 2003 Summer

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Load switching: Boost daytime not night demand

  • 2. Load matching

Off-peak hot water Pool pumps Refrigerators Space heat

2004

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“Duck curve”

  • 3. New daytime loads
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“Duck curve” New night-time loads

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“Duck curve” New night-time loads

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New daytime loads

  • 1. Electric vehicle charging
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New daytime loads

  • 1. Electric vehicle charging
  • 2. Desalination
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New daytime loads

  • 1. Electric vehicle charging
  • 2. Desalination
  • 3. Hydrogen from H2O (other fuels)
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New daytime loads

  • 1. Electric vehicle charging
  • 2. Desalination
  • 3. Hydrogen from H2O (other fuels)
  • 4. CO2 removal, mineralisation
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“Duck curve”

  • 4. Import / Export
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Storage or immediate transmission?

  • J. Luther

Sun always shining somewhere

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Wind speed

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Wind Solar

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Wind Solar

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How far can electricity be sent?

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How far can electricity be sent?

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How far can electricity be sent?

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Storage or immediate transmission?

  • J. Luther

Sun always shining somewhere

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Storage or immediate transmission?

  • J. Luther

Sun always shining somewhere

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Source of global CO2 emissions

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Source of global CO2 emissions

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Growth in annual sales

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Growth in annual sales

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Source of global CO2 emissions

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Parallel connection

top view

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Source of global CO2 emissions

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Thank you!