Martin A. Green UNSW Australia (m.green@unsw.edu.au) UNSW - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Martin A. Green UNSW Australia (m.green@unsw.edu.au) UNSW - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 25, 2022 105 likes •665 views

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics How Did Silicon Solar Cells Get So Cheap? Martin A. Green UNSW Australia (m.green@unsw.edu.au) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight Recent PPAs (power purchase agreements) $24.20/MWh

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Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics

How Did Silicon Solar Cells Get So Cheap?”

Martin A. Green UNSW Australia

(m.green@unsw.edu.au)

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Recent PPAs (power purchase agreements)

$24.20/MWh

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Global Perspective Module Cost / Price

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The beginning (1839)

Edmond Bequerel

1839

Edmond Bequerel

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The 1930s

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First silicon pn junction cell (Russell Ohl, 1941)

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First efficient silicon cells (1953/4)

Pearson, Chapin & Fuller

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First efficient cells (1953/4)

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First efficient cells (1953/4)

5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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Telstar I (1962) Vanguard I (1958)

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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Black cell (COMSAT 1974)

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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Black cell (COMSAT 1974)

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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Black cell (COMSAT 1974)

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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Black cell (COMSAT 1974)

Al-BSF cell

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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Black cell (COMSAT 1974)

Al-BSF cell

1975 IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference

Al-BSF cell

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Global Perspective

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Global Perspective

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Photovoltaics Commercial/ Demo

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Photovoltaics Commercial/ Demo

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Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986

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Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986

Launched 1993/4 (World PV production 60 MW) 70,000 roofs by FY 2000 1 million by FY 2010 (5 GW)

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Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986

Launched 1993/4 (World PV production 60 MW) 70,000 roofs by FY 2000 1 million by FY 2010 (5 GW)

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

% subsidy

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Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986

Launched 1993/4 (World PV production 60 MW) 70,000 roofs by FY 2000 1 million by FY 2010 (5 GW)

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

% subsidy Japan USA

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Chernobyl

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Chernobyl

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Global Warming

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German Feed-In Tariff (FIT)

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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COMSAT Bell Labs UNSW/ Stanford PERC

First World Record (1983)

Elsevier “Top 10” Milestones in PV # 5 # 8

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5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

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COMSAT Bell Labs UNSW/ Stanford PERC

First World Record (1983)

Elsevier “Top 10” Milestones in PV # 5 # 8

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Cell technology

BSF HJ IBC PERC

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First big system Toledo, 1994

Buried contact solar cell (Saturn cell)

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First big system 1994 David Hogg

China visit, 1994

(“Devoid of all appropriate infrastructure”)

Zhengrong Shi

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Pacific Solar, 1995 Training ground for Chinese industry

c-Si on glass (CSG)

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Pacific Solar, 1995 Training ground for Chinese industry

TF c-Si on glass (CSG)

Solar Valley, Thalheim, 2004

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Pacific Solar, 1995 Crystalline Silicon on Glass (CSG)

1997

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Global Perspective

1997

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9/9/2002: Launch of Chinese PV Industry

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Capitalization

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Capitalization

  • 1. Establishes first viable private cell production facility in China
  • 2. Establishes competitive position internationally for Chinese modules
  • 3. Helps build up local supply chain to reduce costs

(Convertible senior notes)

  • 4. Pioneers capital raising on US markets to finance PV growth in China

First private Chinese NYSE Largest tech float 2005

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Capitalization

  • 1. Establishes first viable private cell production facility in China
  • 2. Establishes competitive position internationally for Chinese modules
  • 3. Helps build up local supply chain to reduce costs

(Convertible senior notes)

  • 4. Pioneers capital raising on US markets to finance PV growth in China

First private Chinese NYSE Largest tech float 2005

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Capitalization

  • 1. Establishes first viable private cell production facility in China
  • 2. Establishes competitive position internationally for Chinese modules
  • 3. Helps build up local supply chain to reduce costs

(Convertible senior notes)

  • 4. Pioneers capital raising on US markets to finance PV growth in China

First private Chinese NYSE Largest tech float 2005

“First wave” “Second wave”

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (end-2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (end-2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave”

Si prices Oversupply

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (end-2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave” . Federal Government: “the central government did not provide direct financial or political support to the private solar PV sector before 2009”

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (end-2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave” . Federal Government: “the central government did not provide direct financial or political support to the private solar PV sector before 2009”

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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

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Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government:

From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions)

(Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer)

After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated, irrational exuberance” creates “Third Wave” . Federal Government: “the central government did not provide direct financial or political support to the private solar PV sector before 2009”

Suntech 4% Trina 1.4% Yingli 1.4% JA Solar 0%

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“How so cheap?”

Government programs: US: Flat-plate solar array (FSA) 1975-1986

  • standardized, reliable module design (EVA, Al-BSF, multi-Si, FBR Si)

Germany: Feed-in Tariff (EEG) 2001-2012

  • reliable, profitable market for emerging industry

Australia: Centres of Excellence 1981-2010

  • expertise underpinning manufacturing diversification

China: Local government initiatives 2006-2010

  • created oversupply accelerating cost reduction

Private: Chinese companies, US Investors

p.96-101

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Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics

Thank you!