Where is the solar industry headed Martin A. Green UNSW Sydney - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

where is the solar industry headed
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Where is the solar industry headed Martin A. Green UNSW Sydney - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics Where is the solar industry headed Martin A. Green UNSW Sydney November 2017 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight PV now cheapest! UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics

“Where is the solar industry headed”

Martin A. Green UNSW Sydney

November 2017

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

PV now cheapest!

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

2017 $0.33/W 100 10 US$/W 1 0.1 1998 2008

1 Terrawatt (TW)

‘experimental’ phase ‘industry-development’ phase ‘mass-production’ phase

Cumulative PV installed (MW)

& soon even cheaper!

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics

2015 forecasts CONSERVATIVE! Growth 2015/2017 Projected: 24% Actual: 85%

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics

2015 forecasts CONSERVATIVE!

Bloomberg 2015

NATURE ENERGY 2, 17140 (2017)

5 TW Present costs ÷ 4 Cost reductions continue until 2050 Present costs ÷ 2 LUT 2017 LUT 2017

Lappeenranta University of Technology - LUT

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Unresolved problem!

Can PV make a major impact on global warming?

1 Terrawatt (TW) PV

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Unresolved problem!

Can PV make a major impact on global warming?

1 Terrawatt (TW) PV

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Efficiency, %

UNSW

UNSW

First 20% cell Silicon solar cell efficiency, %

34 years 50% relative

UNSW PERC cell

PERC

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Cell technology

  • BSF

HJ IBC PERC

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Cell technology

  • BSF

HJ IBC PERC

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Cell technology

  • BSF

HJ IBC PERC

24.4%

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Cell technology

24.4%

  • BSF

HJ IBC PERC

22.0 23.0 24.0

Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018

~ 0.6%/year (abs.)

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Ingots

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Ingots

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

2017 $0.34/W 100 10 US$/W 1 0.1 1998 2008 1 Terrawatt (TW)

‘experimental’ phase ‘industry-development’ phase ‘mass-production’ phase

Cumulative PV installed (MW)

1..& soon even cheaper!

Accelerate PV cost reductions:

  • 1. Perfect production & transfer PERC
  • 2. Increase performance by 50% by stacking cells
slide-17
SLIDE 17

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain

Free choice or Si 25% PERC

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain

Free choice or Si 25% PERC 41%?

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain

Free choice or Si

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain

Free choice or Si

Artificial silicon!

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Earth abundant, non-toxic (CZTS: Cu2ZnSnS4)

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Solar paint

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Solar Armour

Masuda et al., Solar Energy 146 (2017) 523

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Masuda et al., Solar Energy 146 (2017) 523

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Parallel connection

top view

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW

Summary

. PV can make a big impact on global CO2 emissions . Standard silicon cells will allow very low costs . Stacked cells on silicon allow even lower costs . My research– stacked cells, module T, solar paint !