BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Working with the thermal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Working with the thermal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Working with the thermal industry since 2003 ESTIF GA 2011 Budapest Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager Heating Agenda BSRIA who we are What we do Solar thermal /heating market studies and methodology

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BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

Working with the thermal industry since 2003

ESTIF GA 2011 Budapest Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager Heating

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

BSRIA – who we are

  • What we do

Solar thermal /heating market studies and methodology

  • HVAC related studies
  • Solar thermal research
  • Methodology
  • What is included in our solar thermal market studies

Market monitoring and data collection

  • Why is this essential for the solar thermal industry
  • Coverage
  • Benefits
  • Why BSRIA

Experience of Switzerland

  • Set up
  • Confidentiality
  • The results

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

BSRIA – who we are

  • What we do

Solar thermal /heating market studies and methddology

  • HVAC related studies
  • Solar thermal research
  • Methodology
  • What is included in our solar thermal market studies

Market monitoring and data collection

  • Why is this essential for the solar thermal industry
  • Coverage
  • Benefits
  • Why BSRIA

Experience of Switzerland

  • Set up
  • Confidentiality
  • The results

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

BSRIA: An Overview

  • A research and technical organisation established in 1955.
  • Member association, non-profit organisation with over 50 years experience,

support industry through advice, testing, instruments, research and guidance to promote energy/water efficiency, best practice in construction and effective

  • peration of buildings
  • Independent, objective and practical help in design, construction and
  • ccupancy of the built environment
  • Turnover approx. £12 million, 160 employees, (2008/9)

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

  • Turnover 4 million Euros 2011

50% multi-client 50% private client including management consultancy

  • Research across 94 countries
  • 35 permanent multi-lingual analysts and
  • 35 independent consultants
  • Offices in UK, China, US, France, Spain,

Germany, partners in other countries

  • More offices this year
  • Global network of associates eg. JARN

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

BSRIA – who we are

  • What we do
  • BSRIA heating and renewable clients

Solar thermal /heating market studies and methodology

  • HVAC related studies
  • Solar thermal research
  • Methodology
  • What is included in our solar thermal market studies

Market monitoring and data collection

  • Why is this essential for the solar thermal industry
  • Coverage
  • Benefits
  • Why BSRIA

Experience of Switzerland

  • Set up
  • Confidentiality
  • The results

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

BSRIA Regular Multi-Client Studies 2011 & 2012

Smart

Environmental Controls Security Lighting controls Fire Detection Smart Homes Energy Management

Air Conditioning

Worldwide Review and In-depth Air handling units & fan coils Chillers Large packaged & close control Splits Windows & moveables Brand & Distribution Refrigeration

Renewables

Worldwide Heat Pumps Worldwide Solar Thermal Micro CHP/Fuel Cell/Gas Heat Pump Bio-Mass Residential Heat Recovery Commercial Heat Pumps Commercial Solar Thermal Solar PV

Heating

Annual Worldwide Review Domestic boilers Commercial boilers Water heaters Radiators & under- floor heating HVAC 2020 Integration/overlap

IT

Annual Worldwide Review Structured cabling Data centres Wireless Passive optical LAN IT Convergence Air Conditioning Heating Renewables Cabling Europe 11 19 14 11 Asia Pacific 11 3 2 5 Americas 4 3 1 3 Middle East, India & Africa 3 3

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Solar Thermal Multi-Client Europe 2010 & 2011

Solar Thermal 2010 Solar Thermal 2010 Solar Thermal 2010 Solar Thermal 2011 Commercial Solar Thermal 2009 & 2011 Europe Austria Jul-10 Feb-11 Belgium Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Czech Republic Feb-11 France Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Germany Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Greece Jul-10 Italy Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Netherlands Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Norway Poland Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Tunisia Jul-10 Slovakia Jul-10 Spain Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Sweden Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Switzerland Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Turkey Jul-10 Feb-11 UK Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Solar Thermal Multi-Client Europe 2010 & 2011

Solar Thermal 2010 Solar Thermal 2010 Solar Thermal 2010 Solar Thermal 2011 Commercial Solar Thermal 2009 & 2011 Europe Austria Jul-10 Feb-11 Belgium Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Czech Republic Feb-11 France Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Germany Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Greece Jul-10 Italy Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Netherlands Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Norway Poland Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Tunisia Jul-10 Slovakia Jul-10 Spain Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Sweden Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Switzerland Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Turkey Jul-10 Feb-11 UK Mar-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Aug-11

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Excellence in Market Intelligence Trade Journals / Electronic Newsletters

1,000 research visits

1,000 sales visits/contacts

Sources

Keeping track Internet

500 published and private reports

Partnerships

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Methodology / Expert interviews

Small companies Large companies

Source: Market Research Society

Interview all of these Interview a sample

  • f these

Manufacturers Importers Wholesalers Distributors

Other institutions

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Multi-client report Solar thermal

1 MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW .................................. 1 1.1 Economy and construction........................................... 1 1.1.1 Population and climate............................................ 1 1.1.2 Economy ................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Construction............................................................ 3 1.1.4 New house building................................................. 3 1.2 Energy supply.............................................................. 4 1.2.1 Overview ................................................................. 4 1.2.2 Residential gas supply ............................................ 5 1.3 Heating stock............................................................... 5 1.4 Local heating practices ................................................ 6 1.4.1 District heating ........................................................ 6 1.4.2 Commercial / collective heating............................... 7 1.4.3 Individual central heating......................................... 7 1.4.4 Conversions ............................................................ 7 2 MARKET SIZE, STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION .......... 9 2.1 Market volume and value............................................. 9 2.2 Product segmentation................................................ 11 2.2.1 Flat plate collectors ............................................... 11 2.2.2 Vacuum tubes ....................................................... 11 2.2.3 Forced circulation versus thermosiphon systems.. 11 2.2.4 Drain-back systems............................................... 11 2.2.5 Thermosiphon products by system type................ 12 2.3 Average prices by system type.................................. 13 3 HISTORICAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS.......................... 14 3.1 Historical trend........................................................... 14 3.2 Forecasts................................................................... 15 4 STRUCTURE OF SUPPLY ................................ ................... 16 4.1 Distribution ................................ ................................ . 16 4.1.1 Domestic production versus imports ..................... 17 4.1.2 OEM supply ................................ ........................... 17 4.2 End user sector ................................ .......................... 17 4.3 Applications ................................ ............................... 18 4.4 Installation type ................................ .......................... 18 4.5 Major suppliers ................................ .......................... 19 4.5.1 Market position by product type .............................. 19 4.5.2 Profiles of major companies ................................ .. 21 5 MARKET DRIVERS AND IINCENTIVES ............................... 23 5.1 Financial incentives/ subsidies ................................ ... 23 5.2 Energy -efficient housing ................................ ............ 23 5.3 Building regulations/ e nergy efficiency laws ............... 23 5.4 Energy prices ................................ ............................. 23 5.5 Local manufacturing ................................ ................... 24 5.5.1 Solar thermal equipment ................................ ....... 24 5.5.2 Heating equipment ................................ ................ 24 5.6 Installers ................................ ................................ .... 24 5.7 Consumer awareness ................................ ................ 24 6 MARKET ATTRACTIVENES ................................ .............. 25 6.1 Macro -environmental analysis ................................ ... 25 7 FUTURE DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY ................................ . 26 7.1 Potential for mainstream uptake ................................ 26 7.2 Market challenges ................................ ...................... 26

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Multi –client study: Switzerland solar thermal historical trends and forecasts, volume

BSRIA report takes managerial approach to the forecast and makes assumptions on the impact main market drivers like legislation, incentives, new construction / refurbishment data and technology development will have on the market development.

Type of collector Actual Estimated/forecast CAGR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2010- 2014 Flat plate 43 60.3 90.7 124 143.0 125.0 140.0 165.2 203.2 249.9 18.9% Vacuum tubes 1.7 2.5 3.4 10.3 19.2 13.0 15.0 17.9 22.4 28.0 21.2% Total 44.7 62.8 94.1 134.3 162.2 138.0 155.0 183.1 225.6 278.0 19.1% % change 40.5% 49.8% 42.7% 20.8% -14.9% 12.3% 18.2% 23.2% 23.2%

BSRIA Total market size estimates and forecasts

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

By end user sector By application

Residential new build 49% Residential replace ment and refurbish- ment 34% Commercial new build 9% Commercial replace ment and refurbish- ment 8% Domestic hot water heating 53% Domestic space heating (combi) 29% Commercial hot water heating 14% Commercial space heating (combi) 3% Swimming pools (excluding unglazed collectors) 1%

Total market 2009: 162,200 m2

Example output: Switzerland solar thermal market, 2009

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

BSRIA – who we are

  • What we do
  • BSRIA heating and renewable clients

Solar thermal /heating market studies and methddology

  • HVAC related studies
  • Solar thermal research
  • Methodology
  • What is included in our solar thermal market studies

Market monitoring and data collection

  • Why is this essential for the solar thermal industry
  • Coverage
  • Benefits
  • Why BSRIA

Experience of Switzerland

  • Set up
  • Confidentiality
  • The results

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Market Monitoring

Market Monitoring Industry Press Law Makers Regulators Educators Service Providers

is necessary for all Stakeholders, but can only be provided with support of the Industry

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Market Monitoring

1st Monday Data Request 2nd Monday Data Reporting Consolidation and Estimation 3rd Monday Sent to Responding Members End-of- Month

BSRIA

Publication of results is only made on 12-month basis, or as otherwise agreed by the National Association Frequent Monitoring is essential to bring value to the participants

has to be Frequent, Easy to Administer, and Confidential

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Market coverage

21 companies Flat plate 48% Vacuum tube 53% BSRIA estimate

Achieved via own research process that allows to estimate total market size

Constant process towards building it up

Flat plate 100% Vacuum tube 100% 24 companies Flat plate 53% Vacuum tube 58% Reported numbers Reported numbers

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

National Members European Public

Only Annual Data

National Public

Only Annual Data

ESTIF

Send Market Data

National Association

Business Agreement Send Consolidated Market Data

BSRIA

Own research with interviewees covering responding companies and non-respondents Market reports

Data collection process

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

  • Very cost effective, Euro 2.9k for quarterly collection

Benefits of running the data collection

Regular data

  • Provides up to date analysis of the market development
  • Enables quick strategic adjustments
  • Gives competitive advantage (only members of the scheme

receive the consolidated data and BSRIA total market estimate)

  • Objective and independent view of the market

Accurate data

  • No danger of sales double counting

Independent collection

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Why choose BSRIA

  • BSRIA has a long track of running data collection schemes and has

never been accused of disclosing confidential data before

  • BSRIA has appropriate internal procedures to keep data confidential
  • BSRIA has signed a strict confidentiality agreement with ESTIF

Confidentiality

  • Large share of the market will be included
  • Import numbers will be included
  • No company can have more than 50% in a market
  • No double counting of sales as BSRIA will monitor OEM agreements
  • BSRIA has a reliable estimate of the total market via its own research

Validity

  • BSRIA is independent and has no commercial interest in different solar

thermal solution or in any other product

  • Does not improperly exclude segments of market (producers,

technologies, nationalities, etc)

Neutrality

  • Proven Data Collection Method
  • Efficient Data Consolidation Method
  • Dedicated Excel Data Centre Department – working on many projects

Reliability

Efficient & Cost effective

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Data Collection Some of BSRIA Continuous Surveys

Clients Years Run When Type

UK splits club 10 17 Quarterly Consolidated data presented at a meeting + speaker UK VRF club 7 9 Quarterly As above / affiliated to the Splits club UK chiller club 9 8 6 monthly As above / affiliated to the Splits club UK heat pump group 26 1 Quarterly Consolidated data presented at a meeting UK shower club 8 7 Monthly Consolidated data only UK air conditioning Switzerland Solar Thermal data collection 7 24 22 1 Annual Quarterly Work with UK trade association Consolidated data only Consolidated data sent quarterly + meeting and presentation once a year

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Benefits for BSRIA

Regular data collection

Increases the accuracy of the market data Allows to build up a long-term relationship with companies Increases our credibility in the market Allows us to detect changes in micro and macro scale early Helps us to prepare cross industry analysis for the HVAC market

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

BSRIA – who we are

  • What we do
  • BSRIA heating and renewable clients

Solar thermal /heating market studies and methddology

  • HVAC related studies
  • Solar thermal research
  • Methodology
  • What is included in our solar thermal market studies

Market monitoring and data collection

  • Why is this essential for the solar thermal industry
  • Coverage
  • Benefits
  • Why BSRIA

Experience of Switzerland

  • Set up
  • Confidentiality
  • The results

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Data collection process Swiss case

Questionnaire information will be sent to the appointed country manager who will enter them into the spreadsheet to calculate the total for the market. The participants are asked to send the data back to BSRIA on the 15th day of the month following each quarter of the year at the latest. BSRIA is not supposed to 'chase' companies for their acknowledgement of receiving the questionnaire. An appointed country manager will e-mail the companies that decide to take part in the data collection service a blank questionnaire on the last day of each quarter. The consolidated results will be sent back to the local Solar Thermal Association (and to the participants of the scheme) on the last day of the month following each quarter of the year.

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

Confidentiality of the data

  • Data can be sent as Excel, Adobe document or in a “safe” way, protected with the

password known only to the appointed country manager.

  • Spreadsheet data records will be maintained using encrypted files and only country

manager and BSRIA general manager will have access to the individual companies’ data.

  • Monthly consolidated results will remain strictly confidential to the country Association and

to the group of companies taking part in the survey.

  • Consolidated data will not be released to third parties by BSRIA.
  • Ownership of the data
  • Individual company data will be kept strictly confidential by BSRIA and will not be

divulged to any third party now or in the future

  • Consolidated results will be owned by ESTIF-National Associations. BSRIA will not

normally need to publish this data. If it was necessary to provide this we would seek permission from ESTIF- National Associations

  • BSRIA reserves the right to use the combined member results as part of the

“evidence” in building up a total market picture. All of the above has been assured by the Confidentiality Agreement that BSRIA has signed with ESTIF before the start of the pilot data collection project in Switzerland. 26

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Excellence in Market Intelligence

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

Thank you!

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